Systems approaches to animal disease surveillance and resource allocation: methodological frameworks for behavioral analysis

While demands for animal disease surveillance systems are growing, there has been little applied research that has examined the interactions between resource allocation, cost-effectiveness, and behavioral considerations of actors throughout the livestock supply chain in a surveillance system context. These interactions are important as feedbacks between surveillance decisions and disease evolution may be modulated by their contextual drivers, influencing the cost-effectiveness of a given surveillance system. This paper identifies a number of key behavioral aspects involved in animal health surveillance systems and reviews some novel methodologies for their analysis. A generic framework for analysis is discussed, with exemplar results provided to demonstrate the utility of such an approach in guiding better disease control and surveillance decisions

Herd-level risk factors associated with the presence of Phage type 21/28 E. coli O157 on Scottish cattle farms

<p>Background: E. coli O157 is a bacterial pathogen that is shed by cattle and can cause severe disease in humans. Phage type (PT) 21/28 is a subtype of E. coli O157 that is found across Scotland and is associated with particularly severe human morbidity.</p> <p>Methods: A cross-sectional survey of Scottish cattle farms was conducted in the period Feb 2002-Feb 2004 to determine the prevalence of E. coli O157 in cattle herds. Data from 88 farms on which E. coli O157 was present were analysed using generalised linear mixed models to identify risk factors for the presence of PT 21/28 specifically.</p> <p>Results: The analysis identified private water supply, and northerly farm location as risk factors for PT 21/28 presence. There was a significant association between the presence of PT 21/28 and an increased number of E. coli O157 positive pat samples from a farm, and PT 21/28 was significantly associated with larger E. coli O157 counts than non-PT 21/28 E. coli O157.</p> <p>Conclusion: PT 21/28 has significant risk factors that distinguish it from other phage types of E. coli O157. This finding has implications for the control of E. coli O157 as a whole and suggests that control could be tailored to target the locally dominant PT.</p&gt

Evidence for osteocyte-mediated bone-matrix degradation associated with periprosthetic joint infection (PJI)

Osteomyelitis associated with periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) signals a chronic infection and the need for revision surgery. An osteomyelitic bone exhibits distinct morphological features, including evidence for osteolysis and an accelerated bone remodelling into poorly organised, poor-quality bone. In addition to immune cells, various bone cell-types have been implicated in the pathology. The present study sought to determine the types of bone-cell activities in human PJI bones. Acetabular biopsies from peri-implant bone from patients undergoing revision total hip replacement (THR) for chronic PJI (with several identified pathogens) as well as control bone from the same patients and from patients undergoing primary THR were analysed. Histological analysis confirmed that PJI bone presented increased osteoclastic activity compared to control bone. Analysis of osteocyte parameters showed no differences in osteocyte lacunar area between the acetabular bone taken from PJI patients or primary THR controls. Analysis of bone matrix composition using Masson's trichrome staining and second-harmonic generation microscopy revealed widespread lack of mature collagen, commonly surrounding osteocytes, in PJI bone. Increased expression of known collagenases, such as matrix metallopeptidase (MMP) 13, MMP1 and cathepsin K (CTSK), was measured in infected bone compared to non-infected bone. Human bone and cultured osteocyte-like cells experimentally exposed to Staphylococcus aureus exhibited strongly upregulated expression of MMP1, MMP3 and MMP13 compared to non-exposed controls. In conclusion, the study identified previously unrecognised bone-matrix changes in PJI caused by multiple organisms deriving from osteocytes. Histological examination of bone collagen composition may provide a useful adjunct diagnostic measure of PJI.R.T. Ormsby, A.R. Zelmer, D. Yang, N.J. Gunn, Y. Starczak, S.P. Kidd ... et al

Operator-dependent variability of angiography-derived fractional flow reserve and the implications for treatment

Aims To extend the benefits of physiologically-guided percutaneous coronary intervention to many patients, angiography-derived or ‘virtual’ fractional flow reserve (vFFR) has been developed, in which FFR is computed, based upon the images, instead of being measured invasively. The effect of operator experience with these methods upon vFFR accuracy remains unknown. We investigated variability in vFFR results based upon operator experience with image-based computational modelling techniques. Methods vFFR was computed using a proprietary method (VIRTUheart) from the invasive angiograms of patients with coronary artery disease. Each case was processed by an expert (>100 vFFR cases) and a non-expert (<20 vFFR cases) operator and results were compared. The primary outcome was the variability in vFFR between experts and non-experts and the impact this had upon treatment strategy (PCI vs conservative management). Results 231 vessels (199 patients) were processed. Mean non-expert and expert vFFRs were similar overall (0.76 (0.13) and 0.77 (0.16)) but there was significant variability between individual results (variability coefficient 12%, intra-class correlation coefficient 0.58), with only moderate agreement (κ = 0.46), and this led to a statistically significant change in management strategy in 27% of cases. Variability was significantly lower, and agreement higher, for expert operators; a change in their recommended management occurred in 10% of repeated expert measurements and 14% of inter-expert measurements. Conclusions vFFR results are influenced by operator experience of vFFR processing. This had implications for treatment allocation. These results highlight the importance of training and quality assurance to ensure reliable, repeatable vFFR results

The global atmospheric electrical circuit and climate

Evidence is emerging for physical links among clouds, global temperatures, the global atmospheric electrical circuit and cosmic ray ionisation. The global circuit extends throughout the atmosphere from the planetary surface to the lower layers of the ionosphere. Cosmic rays are the principal source of atmospheric ions away from the continental boundary layer: the ions formed permit a vertical conduction current to flow in the fair weather part of the global circuit. Through the (inverse) solar modulation of cosmic rays, the resulting columnar ionisation changes may allow the global circuit to convey a solar influence to meteorological phenomena of the lower atmosphere. Electrical effects on non-thunderstorm clouds have been proposed to occur via the ion-assisted formation of ultra-fine aerosol, which can grow to sizes able to act as cloud condensation nuclei, or through the increased ice nucleation capability of charged aerosols. Even small atmospheric electrical modulations on the aerosol size distribution can affect cloud properties and modify the radiative balance of the atmosphere, through changes communicated globally by the atmospheric electrical circuit. Despite a long history of work in related areas of geophysics, the direct and inverse relationships between the global circuit and global climate remain largely quantitatively unexplored. From reviewing atmospheric electrical measurements made over two centuries and possible paleoclimate proxies, global atmospheric electrical circuit variability should be expected on many timescale

Updated Nucleosynthesis Constraints on Unstable Relic Particles

We revisit the upper limits on the abundance of unstable massive relic particles provided by the success of Big-Bang Nucleosynthesis calculations. We use the cosmic microwave background data to constrain the baryon-to-photon ratio, and incorporate an extensively updated compilation of cross sections into a new calculation of the network of reactions induced by electromagnetic showers that create and destroy the light elements deuterium, he3, he4, li6 and li7. We derive analytic approximations that complement and check the full numerical calculations. Considerations of the abundances of he4 and li6 exclude exceptional regions of parameter space that would otherwise have been permitted by deuterium alone. We illustrate our results by applying them to massive gravitinos. If they weigh ~100 GeV, their primordial abundance should have been below about 10^{-13} of the total entropy. This would imply an upper limit on the reheating temperature of a few times 10^7 GeV, which could be a potential difficulty for some models of inflation. We discuss possible ways of evading this problem.Comment: 40 pages LaTeX, 18 eps figure

Velocity-space sensitivity of the time-of-flight neutron spectrometer at JET

The velocity-space sensitivities of fast-ion diagnostics are often described by so-called weight functions. Recently, we formulated weight functions showing the velocity-space sensitivity of the often dominant beam-target part of neutron energy spectra. These weight functions for neutron emission spectrometry (NES) are independent of the particular NES diagnostic. Here we apply these NES weight functions to the time-of-flight spectrometer TOFOR at JET. By taking the instrumental response function of TOFOR into account, we calculate time-of-flight NES weight functions that enable us to directly determine the velocity-space sensitivity of a given part of a measured time-of-flight spectrum from TOFOR

Relationship of edge localized mode burst times with divertor flux loop signal phase in JET

A phase relationship is identified between sequential edge localized modes (ELMs) occurrence times in a set of H-mode tokamak plasmas to the voltage measured in full flux azimuthal loops in the divertor region. We focus on plasmas in the Joint European Torus where a steady H-mode is sustained over several seconds, during which ELMs are observed in the Be II emission at the divertor. The ELMs analysed arise from intrinsic ELMing, in that there is no deliberate intent to control the ELMing process by external means. We use ELM timings derived from the Be II signal to perform direct time domain analysis of the full flux loop VLD2 and VLD3 signals, which provide a high cadence global measurement proportional to the voltage induced by changes in poloidal magnetic flux. Specifically, we examine how the time interval between pairs of successive ELMs is linked to the time-evolving phase of the full flux loop signals. Each ELM produces a clear early pulse in the full flux loop signals, whose peak time is used to condition our analysis. The arrival time of the following ELM, relative to this pulse, is found to fall into one of two categories: (i) prompt ELMs, which are directly paced by the initial response seen in the flux loop signals; and (ii) all other ELMs, which occur after the initial response of the full flux loop signals has decayed in amplitude. The times at which ELMs in category (ii) occur, relative to the first ELM of the pair, are clustered at times when the instantaneous phase of the full flux loop signal is close to its value at the time of the first ELM