Sensitivity of simulated soil water content, evapotranspiration, gross primary production and biomass to climate change factors in Euro-Mediterranean grasslands

Grassland models often yield more uncertain outputs than arable crop models due to more complex interactions and the largely undocumented sensitivity of grassland models to environmental factors. The aim of the present study was to assess the impact of single-factor changes in temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric [CO2] on simulated soil water content (SWC), actual evapotranspiration (ET), gross primary production (GPP) and yield biomass, and also to link the sensitivity analysis with experimental results. We employed an unprecedented multi-model framework consisting of seven grassland models at nine sites with different environmental characteristics in Europe and Israel, with two management options at three sites. For warming/cooling and wetting/drying, models showed general consistency in the direction of SWC and ET changes, but less agreement regarding GPP and biomass changes. The simulated responses consistently revealed an overall positive effect of CO2 enrichment on GPP and biomass, while the direction of change differed for SWC and ET. Comparing with single-factor experimental manipulations, SWC simulations slightly underestimated the observed effect of warming, while the overall mean model sensitivity for biomass (+7.5%) closely matched the mean response observed with 1–2 °C warming (+6.6%). The models exhibited lower sensitivity of SWC to wetting or drying compared to the experiments. The overall mean sensitivity of biomass to drying was -4.3%, contrasting with the mean experimental effect size of -9.6%, which proved to be more realistic than the mean wetting effect (+3.2%, against +38.9% in the field trials). The simulated sensitivity of SWC to CO2 enrichment was markedly underestimated, while the biomass response (+12.0%) closely matched the observations (+17.5%). Although the multi-model averaging did not manifestly improve the realism of the simulations, it ensured a realistic response in the direction of change to varying conditions. The results suggest a paradigm shift in grassland modelling meaning that the usual practice of model optimisation/validation needs to be complemented by a sensitivity analysis following the approach presented. The results also highlight the importance of model improvements, especially in terms of soil hydrology representation, a key environmental driver of grassland functioning

Base of the Toarcian Stage of the Lower Jurassic defined by the Global Boundary Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP) at the Peniche section (Portugal)

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.The Global Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP) for the base of Toarcian Stage, Lower Jurassic, is placed at the base of micritic limestone bed 15e at Ponta do Trovão (Peniche, Lusitanian Basin, Portugal; coordinates: 39°22'15''N, 9°23'07''W), 80km north of Lisbon, and coincides with the mass occurrence of the ammonite Dactylioceras (Eodactylites). The Pliensbachian/ Toarcian boundary (PLB/TOA) is contained in a continuous section forming over 450m of carbonate-rich sediments. Tectonics, syn-sedimentary disturbance, metamorphism or significant diagenesis do not significantly affect this area. At the PLB/TOA, no vertical facies changes, stratigraphical gaps or hiatuses have been recorded. The base of the Toarcian Stage is marked in the bed 15e by the first occurrence of D. (E.) simplex, co-occurring with D. (E.) pseudocommune and D. (E.) polymorphum. The ammonite association of D. (Eodactylites) ssp. and other species e.g. Protogrammoceras (Paltarpites) cf. paltum, Lioceratoides aff. ballinense and Tiltoniceras aff. capillatum is particularly significant for the boundary definition and correlation with sections in different basins. Ammonites of the PLB/ TOA are taxa characteristic of both the Mediterranean and Northwest European provinces that allow reliable, global correlations. The PLB/TOA is also characterized by other biostratigraphical markers (brachiopods, calcareous nannofossils, ostracods and benthic foraminifers) and by high-resolution stable carbon and oxygen isotopes, and 87Sr/86Sr ratios that show distinctive changes just above the PLB/TOA, thus providing additional, powerful tools for global correlations. The PBL-TOA lies at the end of a second (and third) order cycle of sea-level change, and the top of bed 15e is interpreted as a sequence boundary. Cyclostratigraphy analysis is available for the Lower Toarcian of Ponta do Trovão. Detailed correlations with the Almonacid de la Cuba section (Iberian Range, Spain) provide complementary data of the ammonite succession in the Northwest European Hawskerense and Paltum Subzones, and magnetostratigraphical data that allow supraregional correlations. The proposal was voted on by the Toarcian Working Group in June, 2012, and by the International Subcommission on Jurassic Stratigraphy in September, 2012, approved by the ICS in November, 2014, and ratified by the IUGS in December, 2014. With this Toarcian GSSP, all international stages of the Lower Jurassic have been officially defined.Several scientists have been members of the Toarcian Working Group. We would like to acknowledge all of them. We are also grateful to the ISJS and ICS members who have made valuable comments on a previous version of this manuscript. We warmly thank Marc Philippe for his help with the literature on Pliensbachian/Toarcian continental successions. We warmly thank Christian Meister and Jim Ogg for their helpful review. Constructive remarks by Jim Ogg on an early version of the paper were greatly appreciated. We also acknowledge the precious help of David Besson for providing the ammonite specimens from the Mouterde collection (Musée des Confluences, Lyon). Ammonite photographs were taken by Emmanuel Robert (Collections de Géologie de Lyon). This paper is dedicated to the memory of Abbé René Mouterde and Serge Elmi, who died in 2007 after having been for years the main supporters of the Peniche section as GSSP of Toarcian Stage. Calcareous nannofossil slides are curated at the Collections de Géologie de Lyon (No. FSL 766535-766617). This work has been supported by the BIOSCALES Project (POCTI/ 36438/PAL/2000), coordinated by the Universidade NOVA de Lisboa; R. B. Rocha thanks the support of A. F. Soares, J. C. Kullberg, P. S. Caetano and P. H. Verdial. Financial support was provided to L. V. Duarte, S. Pinto and M. C. Cabral by Projects PDCTE/CTA/44907/2002 and PTDC/CTE-GIX/098968/2008

An ensemble of projections of wheat adaptation to climate change in europe analyzed with impact response surfaces

IRS2 TEAM:Alfredo Rodríguez(1), Ignacio J. Lorite(3), Fulu Tao(4), Nina Pirttioja(5), Stefan Fronzek(5), Taru Palosuo(4), Timothy R. Carter(5), Marco Bindi(2), Jukka G Höhn(4), Kurt Christian Kersebaum(6), Miroslav Trnka(7,8),Holger Hoffmann(9), Piotr Baranowski(10), Samuel Buis(11), Davide Cammarano(12), Yi Chen(13,4), Paola Deligios(14), Petr Hlavinka(7,8), Frantisek Jurecka(7,8), Jaromir Krzyszczak(10), Marcos Lana(6), Julien Minet(15), Manuel Montesino(16), Claas Nendel(6), John Porter(16), Jaime Recio(1), Françoise Ruget(11), Alberto Sanz(1), Zacharias Steinmetz(17,18), Pierre Stratonovitch(19), Iwan Supit(20), Domenico Ventrella(21), Allard de Wit(20) and Reimund P. Rötter(4).An ensemble of projections of wheat adaptation to climate change in europe analyzed with impact response surfaces . International Crop Modelling Symposiu

Applying adaptation response surfaces for managing wheat under perturbed climate and elevated CO2 in a Mediterranean environment

This study developed Adaptation Response Surfaces and applied them to a study case in North East Spain on winter crops adaptation, using rainfed winter wheat as reference crop.  Crop responses to perturbed temperature, precipitation and CO2 were simulated by an ensemble of crop models. A set of combined changes on cultivars (on vernalisation requirements and phenology) and management (on sowing date and irrigation) were considered as adaptation options and simulated by the crop model ensemble. The discussion focused on two main issues: 1) the recommended adaptation options for different soil types and perturbation levels, and 2) the need of applying our current knowledge (AOCK) when building a crop model ensemble. The study has been published Agricultural Systems (Available online 25 January 2017, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2017.01.009), and the  text below consists on extracts from that paper

Online control of anticipated postural adjustments in step initiation: Evidence from behavioral and computational approaches

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Le modèle de simulation de culture STICS

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