Population Growth in Man and Its Consequences

Sociological implications of human population explosion and technological and food productio

The importance of nutrient hotspots for grazing ungulates in a Miombo ecosystem, Tanzania

While movement patterns of grazing ungulates are strongly dependent on forage quality their use of nutrient hotspots such as termite mounds or grazing lawns has rarely been quantified, especially in savanna ecosystems where soil-nutrient quality is low. Additionally, few experiments have been conducted to determine the role of termite mound- and grazing lawn-derived soils in improving forage quality in the field. We studied wild ungulate grazing activities around ten termite mounds, six grazing lawns and their respective control sites in a Miombo system of Issa Valley, western Tanzania, in the same system. We used indirect observations (i.e., dung, tracks) to identify seasonal and spatial variations in habitat use of various wild mammalian grazers. Grazer visitation rates were nine and three times higher on termite mounds and grazing lawns, respectively, compared to control sites. During the rainy season, termite mounds were more frequently used than grazing lawns while the latter were used more often during the dry season. In an additional pot experiment with soils derived from different areas, we found that Cynodon dactylon in termite mound-derived soils had twice as high Nitrogen and Phosphorous contents and biomass compared to grasses planted in grazing lawn soils and control site soils. We highlight that both termite mounds and grazing lawns play a significant role in influencing seasonal nutrient dynamics, forage nutrient quality, habitat selectivity, and, hence, grazing activities and movement patterns of wild ungulate grazers in savannas. We conclude that termite mounds and grazing lawns are important for habitat heterogeneity in otherwise nutrient–poor savanna systems

Advances in spatiotemporal models for non-communicable disease surveillance

Surveillance systems are commonly used to provide early warning detection or to assess an impact of an intervention/policy. Traditionally, the methodological and conceptual frameworks for surveillance have been designed for infectious diseases, but the rising burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) worldwide suggests a pressing need for surveillance strategies to detect unusual patterns in the data and to help unveil important risk factors in this setting. Surveillance methods need to be able to detect meaningful departures from expectation and exploit dependencies within such data to produce unbiased estimates of risk as well as future forecasts. This has led to the increasing development of a range of space-time methods specifically designed for NCD surveillance. We present an overview of recent advances in spatiotemporal disease surveillance for NCDs, using hierarchically specified models. This provides a coherent framework for modelling complex data structures, dealing with data sparsity, exploiting dependencies between data sources and propagating the inherent uncertainties present in both the data and the modelling process. We then focus on three commonly used models within the Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM) framework and, through a simulation study, we compare their performance. We also discuss some challenges faced by researchers when dealing with NCD surveillance, including how to account for false detection and the modifiable areal unit problem. Finally, we consider how to use and interpret the complex models, how model selection may vary depending on the intended user group and how best to communicate results to stakeholders and the general public

Driven transverse shear waves in a strongly coupled dusty plasma

The linear dispersion properties of transverse shear waves in a strongly coupled dusty plasma are experimentally studied by exciting them in a controlled manner with a variable frequency external source. The dusty plasma is maintained in the strongly coupled fluid regime with (1 < Gamma << Gamma_c) where Gamma is the Coulomb coupling parameter and Gamma_c is the crystallization limit. A dispersion relation for the transverse waves is experimentally obtained over a frequency range of 0.1 Hz to 2 Hz and found to show good agreement with viscoelastic theoretical results.Comment: The manuscripts contains five pages and 6 figure

Memory difference control of unknown unstable fixed points: Drifting parameter conditions and delayed measurement

Difference control schemes for controlling unstable fixed points become important if the exact position of the fixed point is unavailable or moving due to drifting parameters. We propose a memory difference control method for stabilization of a priori unknown unstable fixed points by introducing a memory term. If the amplitude of the control applied in the previous time step is added to the present control signal, fixed points with arbitrary Lyapunov numbers can be controlled. This method is also extended to compensate arbitrary time steps of measurement delay. We show that our method stabilizes orbits of the Chua circuit where ordinary difference control fails.Comment: 5 pages, 8 figures. See also chao-dyn/9810029 (Phys. Rev. E 70, 056225) and nlin.CD/0204031 (Phys. Rev. E 70, 046205