Forecasting confined spatiotemporal chaos with genetic algorithms

A technique to forecast spatiotemporal time series is presented. it uses a Proper Ortogonal or Karhunen-Lo\`{e}ve Decomposition to encode large spatiotemporal data sets in a few time-series, and Genetic Algorithms to efficiently extract dynamical rules from the data. The method works very well for confined systems displaying spatiotemporal chaos, as exemplified here by forecasting the evolution of the onedimensional complex Ginzburg-Landau equation in a finite domain.Comment: 4 pages, 5 figure

Big Line Bundles over Arithmetic Varieties

We prove a Hilbert-Samuel type result of arithmetic big line bundles in Arakelov geometry, which is an analogue of a classical theorem of Siu. An application of this result gives equidistribution of small points over algebraic dynamical systems, following the work of Szpiro-Ullmo-Zhang. We also generalize Chambert-Loir's non-archimedean equidistribution

Long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution and stroke: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background Stroke remains the second cause of death worldwide. The mechanisms underlying the adverse association of exposure to traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) with overall cardiovascular disease may also apply to stroke. Our objective was to systematically evaluate the epidemiological evidence regarding the associations of long-term exposure to TRAP with stroke. Methods PubMed and LUDOK electronic databases were searched systematically for observational epidemiological studies from 1980 through 2019 on long-term exposure to TRAP and stroke with an update in January 2022. TRAP was defined according to a comprehensive protocol based on pollutant and exposure assessment methods or proximity metrics. Study selection, data extraction, risk of bias (RoB) and confidence assessments were conducted according to standardized protocols. We performed meta-analyses using random effects models; sensitivity analyses were assessed by geographic area, RoB, fatality, traffic specificity and new studies. Results Nineteen studies were included. The meta-analytic relative risks (and 95% confidence intervals) were: 1.03 (0.98-1.09) per 1 μg/m3 EC, 1.09 (0.96-1.23) per 10 μg/m3 PM10, 1.08 (0.89-1.32) per 5 μg/m3 PM2.5, 0.98 (0.92; 1.05) per 10 μg/m3 NO2 and 0.99 (0.94; 1.04) per 20 μg/m3 NOx with little to moderate heterogeneity based on 6, 5, 4, 7 and 8 studies, respectively. The confidence assessments regarding the quality of the body of evidence and separately regarding the presence of an association of TRAP with stroke considering all available evidence were rated low and moderate, respectively. Conclusion The available literature provides low to moderate evidence for an association of TRAP with stroke

Confounding and exposure measurement error in air pollution epidemiology

Studies in air pollution epidemiology may suffer from some specific forms of confounding and exposure measurement error. This contribution discusses these, mostly in the framework of cohort studies. Evaluation of potential confounding is critical in studies of the health effects of air pollution. The association between long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and mortality has been investigated using cohort studies in which subjects are followed over time with respect to their vital status. In such studies, control for individual-level confounders such as smoking is important, as is control for area-level confounders such as neighborhood socio-economic status. In addition, there may be spatial dependencies in the survival data that need to be addressed. These issues are illustrated using the American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention II cohort. Exposure measurement error is a challenge in epidemiology because inference about health effects can be incorrect when the measured or predicted exposure used in the analysis is different from the underlying true exposure. Air pollution epidemiology rarely if ever uses personal measurements of exposure for reasons of cost and feasibility. Exposure measurement error in air pollution epidemiology comes in various dominant forms, which are different for time-series and cohort studies. The challenges are reviewed and a number of suggested solutions are discussed for both study domains

On social preferences and the intensity of risk aversion

We study the relative risk aversion of an individual with particular social preferences: his wellbeing is influenced by his relative wealth, and by how concerned he is about having low relative wealth. Holding constant the individual’s absolute wealth, we obtain two results. First, if the individual’s level of concern about low relative wealth does not change, the individual becomes more risk averse when he rises in the wealth hierarchy. Second, if the individual’s level of concern about low relative wealth intensifies when he rises in the wealth hierarchy and if, in precise sense, this intensification is strong enough, then the individual becomes less risk averse: the individual’s desire to advance further in the wealth hierarchy is more important to him than possibly missing out on a better rank

Curves over every global field violating the local-global principle

There is an algorithm that takes as input a global field k and produces a curve over k violating the local-global principle. Also, given a global field k and a nonnegative integer n, one can effectively construct a curve X over k such that #X(k)=n and X has points over every completion of k.Comment: 5 page

Air pollution and the microvasculature: A cross-sectional assessment of in vivo retinal images in the population-based multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis (MESA)

10.1371/journal.pmed.1000372PLoS Medicine711

A new multicompartmental reaction-diffusion modeling method links transient membrane attachment of E. coli MinE to E-ring formation

Many important cellular processes are regulated by reaction-diffusion (RD) of molecules that takes place both in the cytoplasm and on the membrane. To model and analyze such multicompartmental processes, we developed a lattice-based Monte Carlo method, Spatiocyte that supports RD in volume and surface compartments at single molecule resolution. Stochasticity in RD and the excluded volume effect brought by intracellular molecular crowding, both of which can significantly affect RD and thus, cellular processes, are also supported. We verified the method by comparing simulation results of diffusion, irreversible and reversible reactions with the predicted analytical and best available numerical solutions. Moreover, to directly compare the localization patterns of molecules in fluorescence microscopy images with simulation, we devised a visualization method that mimics the microphotography process by showing the trajectory of simulated molecules averaged according to the camera exposure time. In the rod-shaped bacterium _Escherichia coli_, the division site is suppressed at the cell poles by periodic pole-to-pole oscillations of the Min proteins (MinC, MinD and MinE) arising from carefully orchestrated RD in both cytoplasm and membrane compartments. Using Spatiocyte we could model and reproduce the _in vivo_ MinDE localization dynamics by accounting for the established properties of MinE. Our results suggest that the MinE ring, which is essential in preventing polar septation, is largely composed of MinE that is transiently attached to the membrane independently after recruited by MinD. Overall, Spatiocyte allows simulation and visualization of complex spatial and reaction-diffusion mediated cellular processes in volumes and surfaces. As we showed, it can potentially provide mechanistic insights otherwise difficult to obtain experimentally

Exposure to traffic and left ventricular mass and function: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

RATIONALE: Ambient air pollution has been associated with heart failure morbidity and mortality. The mechanisms responsible for these associations are unknown but may include the effects of traffic-related pollutants on vascular or autonomic function. OBJECTIVES: We assessed the cross-sectional relation between long-term air pollution, traffic exposures, and important end-organ measures of alterations in cardiac function-left ventricular mass index (LVMI) and ejection fraction-in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, a multicenter study of adults without previous clinical cardiovascular disease. METHODS: A total of 3,827 eligible participants (aged 45-84 yr) underwent cardiac magnetic resonance imaging between 2000 and 2002. We estimated air pollution exposures using residential proximity to major roadways and interpolated concentrations of fine particulate matter (less than 2.5 microns in diameter). We examined adjusted associations between these exposures and left ventricular mass and function. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Relative to participants living more than 150 m from a major roadway, participants living within 50 m of a major roadway showed an adjusted 1.4 g/m(2) (95% CI, 0.3-2.5) higher LVMI, a difference in mass corresponding to a 5.6 mm Hg greater systolic blood pressure. Ejection fraction was not associated with proximity to major roadways. Limited variability in estimates of fine particulate matter was observed within cities, and no associations with particulate matter were found for either outcome after adjustment for center. CONCLUSIONS: Living in close proximity to major roadways is associated with higher LVMI, suggesting chronic vascular end-organ damage from a traffic-related environmental exposure. Air pollutants or another component of roadway proximity, such as noise, could be responsible.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78524/1/VanHeeAdar2009_AmJRespirCritCareMed.pd