Exchange Rates and Markov Switching Dynamics

This article presents a systematic and extensive empirical study on the presence of Markov switching dynamics in three dollar-based exchange rates. A Monte Carlo approach is adopted to circumvent the statistical inference problem inherent to the test of regime-switching behavior. Two data frequencies, two sample periods, and various specifications are considered. Quarterly data yield inconclusive evidence - the test rejects neither random walk nor Markov switching. Monthly data, on the other hand, offer unambiguous evidence of the presence of Markov switching dynamics. The results suggest that data frequency, in addition to sample size, is crucial for determining the number of regimes.exchange rate dynamics, regime switching, Monte Carlo Test, sampling frequency

ERGODIC INVARIANT MEASURES ON THE SPACE OF GEODESIC CURRENTS

Let S be a compact, connected, oriented surface, possibly with boundary, of negative Euler characteristic. In this article we extend Lindenstrauss–Mirzakhani’s and Hamenstädt’s classification of locally finite mapping class group invariant ergodic measures on the space of measured laminations ML(S) to the space of geodesic currents C(S), and we discuss the homogeneous case. Moreover, we extend Lindenstrauss–Mirzakhani’s classification of orbit closures to C(S). Our argument relies on their results and on the decomposition of a current into a sum of three currents with isotopically disjoint supports: a measured lamination without closed leaves, a simple multi-curve and a current that binds its hull

Length functions on currents and applications to dynamics and counting

The aim of this (mostly expository) article is twofold. We first explore a variety of length functions on the space of currents, and we survey recent work regarding applications of length functions to counting problems. Secondly, we use length functions to provide a proof of a folklore theorem which states that pseudo-Anosov homeomorphisms of closed hyperbolic surfaces act on the space of projective geodesic currents with uniform north-south dynamics.Comment: 35pp, 2 figures, comments welcome! Second version: minor corrections. To appear as a chapter in the forthcoming book "In the tradition of Thurston" edited by V. Alberge, K. Ohshika and A. Papadopoulo

Smart electric vehicle charging strategies for sectoral coupling in a city energy system

The decarbonization of city energy systems plays an important role to meet climate targets. We examine the consequences of integrating electric cars and buses into the city energy system (60% of private cars and 100% of public buses), using three different charging strategies in a modelling tool that considers local generation and storage of electricity and heat, electricity import to the city, and investments to achieve net-zero emissions from local electricity and heating in 2050. We find that up to 85% of the demand for the charging of electric cars is flexible and that smart charging strategies can facilitate 62% solar PV in the charging electricity mix, compared to 24% when cars are charged directly when parked. Electric buses are less flexible, but the timing of charging enables up to 32% to be supplied by solar PV. The benefit from smart charging to the city energy system can be exploited when charging is aligned with the local value of electricity in the city. Smart charging for cars reduces the need for investments in stationary batteries and peak units in the city electricity and heating sectors. Thus, our results point to the importance of sectoral coupling to exploit flexibility options in the city electricity, district heating and transport sectors

PERSiST: a flexible rainfall-runoff modelling toolkit for use with the INCA family of models

Runoff generation processes and pathways vary widely between catchments. Credible simulations of solute and pollutant transport in surface waters are dependent on models which facilitate appropriate, catchment-specific representations of perceptual models of the runoff generation process. Here, we present a flexible, semi-distributed landscape-scale rainfall-runoff modelling toolkit suitable for simulating a broad range of user-specified perceptual models of runoff generation and stream flow occurring in different climatic regions and landscape types. PERSiST (the Precipitation, Evapotranspiration and Runoff Simulator for Solute Transport) is designed for simulating present-day hydrology; projecting possible future effects of climate or land use change on runoff and catchment water storage; and generating hydrologic inputs for the Integrated Catchments (INCA) family of models. PERSiST has limited data requirements and is calibrated using observed time series of precipitation, air temperature and runoff at one or more points in a river network. Here, we apply PERSiST to the river Thames in the UK and describe a Monte Carlo tool for model calibration, sensitivity and uncertainty analysi

P171Elevated free fetal haemoglobin threatens vasculoprotection in the fetal circulation of preeclamptic pregnancy

Placental up-regulation of free fetal haemoglobin (fHbF) occurs in preeclamptic (PE) pregnancy. Heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1) is an important vasculoprotective enzyme in the catabolism of the associated heme porphyrin structure. We have previously shown that fHbF negatively influences the vasculoprotective capacity of the fetal circulation. Here we study fHbF levels in the fetal cord blood of pregnancies complicated by PE; a pathology associated with dysregulated fetoplacental vascular tone. We have previously shown that fHbF binds nitric oxide (NO) to elicit elevated vascular resistance in the fetoplacental circulation, using ex vivo human dual placental perfusion and in vitro placental endothelial cell shear stress studies. Furthermore, fHbF causes morphological changes to the fetoplacental endothelium. Here we hypothesise that elevated levels of fHbF in fetal plasma associated with placental pathology contribute to fetoplacental hypertension. Purpose: To evaluate and derive a robust cord blood collection and processing protocol for the accurate measurement of fetal plasma fHbF levels in normal and PE pregnancies. Methods: Fetal venous cord blood was collected by syringe and needle, or Vacutainer method into either EDTA or citrate tubes, within 10 minutes of partum. Plasma recovery occurred immediately, or after 30 minutes, prior to centrifugation at 2000g x 10 min at room temperature. Following evaluation to reduce mechanical haemolysis, newly collected normal & PE plasma (n=13 & 6, respectively) was subjected to ELISAs for HbF and HO-1. Results: Venipuncture collection of cord venous blood taken from the cord-placenta insertion point by Vacutainer system with a 21G needle, into citrate collection tubes with immediate centrifugation prevented mechanical haemolysis. There was no difference in plasma HO-1 between groups (medians = 5.9 & 5.3 ng/mL; normal & PE, respectively; Mann-Whitney). Whilst there was no difference in fHbF between groups (Mann-Whitney), variability was high in the PE group and there were some very high values for fHbF compared to the normal range, whilst fHbF values in the control group were within a tighter lower range (medians & ranges = 45.9 & 0-206 and 118.8 & 29-640 μg/mL). Conclusion: Fetal plasma HO-1 levels appear stable in preeclamptic fetal plasma, permitting fHbF to remain unchecked in some cases. High pathophysiological levels of fHbF in some cases of PE pregnancies are capable of evoking elevated vascular resistance within the fetoplacental circulation, caused by nitric oxide sequestration and disruption to the endothelium. Further evaluation is require

Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks

Reduced rainfall increases the risk of forest dieback, while in return forest loss might intensify regional droughts. The consequences of this vegetation-atmosphere feedback for the stability of the Amazon forest are still unclear. Here we show that the risk of self-amplified Amazon forest loss increases nonlinearly with dry-season intensification. We apply a novel complex-network approach, in which Amazon forest patches are linked by observation-based atmospheric water fluxes. Our results suggest that the risk of self-amplified forest loss is reduced with increasing heterogeneity in the response of forest patches to reduced rainfall. Under dry-season Amazonian rainfall reductions, comparable to Last Glacial Maximum conditions, additional forest loss due to self-amplified effects occurs in 10-13% of the Amazon basin. Although our findings do not indicate that the projected rainfall changes for the end of the twenty-first century will lead to complete Amazon dieback, they suggest that frequent extreme drought events have the potential to destabilize large parts of the Amazon forest

The effect of paternalistic alternatives on attitudes toward default nudges

Nudges are increasingly being proposed and used as a policy tool around the world. The success of nudges depends on public acceptance. However, several questions about what makes a nudge acceptable remain unanswered. In this paper, we examine whether policy alternatives to nudges influence the public's acceptance of these nudges: Do attitudes change when the nudge is presented alongside either a more paternalistic policy alternative (legislation) or a less paternalistic alternative (no behavioral intervention)? In two separate samples drawn from the Swedish general public, we find a very small effect of alternatives on the acceptability of various default nudges overall. Surprisingly, we find that when the alternative to the nudge is legislation, acceptance decreases and perceived intrusiveness increases (relative to conditions where the alternative is no regulation). An implication of this finding is that acceptance of nudges may not always automatically increase when nudges are explicitly compared to more paternalistic alternatives

Strengthening the integration of midwifery in health systems; a leader-to-leader collaboration

Barriers and facilitators for quality midwifery care exist on different levels in the health systems. After decades of challenges and varied degrees of success, a stakeholder leader-to-leader collaboration could provide added value through knowledge sharing on how to integrate the midwifery cadre into an existing health system. Initiated by The Midwifery Society of Nepal, Dalarna University Sweden and MAMTA - Health Institute for Mother and Child India, a research network focusing midwifery has been formed. The background, purpose and activities of this network has been described in this News and Events paper