Efficient Value of Information Calculation Using a Nonparametric Regression Approach: An Applied Perspective

Background: Value-of-information (VOI) analysis provides an analytical framework to assess whether obtaining additional evidence is worthwhile to reduce decision uncertainty. The reporting of VOI measures, particularly the expected value of perfect parameter information (EVPPI) and the expected value of sample information (EVSI), is limited because of the computational burden associated with typical two-level Monte-Carlo–based solution. Recently, a nonparametric regression approach was proposed that allows the estimation of multiparameter EVPPI and EVSI directly from a probabilistic sensitivity analysis sample. Objectives: To demonstrate the value of the nonparametric regression approach in calculating VOI measures in real-world cases and to compare its performance with the standard approach of the Monte-Carlo simulation. Methods: We used the regression approach to calculate EVPPI and EVSI in two models, and compared the results with the estimates obtained via the standard Monte-Carlo simulation. Results: The VOI values from the two approaches were very close; computation using the regression method, however, was faster. Conclusion: The nonparametric regression approach provides an efficient and easy-to-implement alternative for EVPPI and EVSI calculation in economic models

Codesigned Shared Decision-Making Diabetes Management Plan Tool for Adolescents With Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus and Their Parents: Prototype Development and Pilot Test

Background: Adolescents with type 1 diabetes mellitus have difficulty achieving optimal glycemic control, partly due to competing priorities that interfere with diabetes self-care. Often, significant diabetes-related family conflict occurs, and adolescents’ thoughts and feelings about diabetes management may be disregarded. Patient-centered diabetes outcomes may be better when adolescents feel engaged in the decision-making process. Objective: The objective of our study was to codesign a clinic intervention using shared decision making for addressing diabetes self-care with an adolescent patient and parent advisory board. Methods: The patient and parent advisory board consisted of 6 adolescents (teens) between the ages 12 and 18 years with type 1 diabetes mellitus and their parents recruited through our institution’s Pediatric Diabetes Program. Teens and parents provided informed consent and participated in 1 or both of 2 patient and parent advisory board sessions, lasting 3 to 4 hours each. Session 1 topics were (1) patient-centered outcomes related to quality of life, parent-teen shared diabetes management, and shared family experiences; and (2) implementation and acceptability of a patient-centered diabetes care plan intervention where shared decision making was used. We analyzed audio recordings, notes, and other materials to identify and extract ideas relevant to the development of a patient-centered diabetes management plan. These data were visually coded into similar themes. We used the information to develop a prototype for a diabetes management plan tool that we pilot tested during session 2. Results: Session 1 identified 6 principal patient-centered quality-of-life measurement domains: stress, fear and worry, mealtime struggles, assumptions and judgments, feeling abnormal, and conflict. We determined 2 objectives to be principally important for a diabetes management plan intervention: (1) focusing the intervention on diabetes distress and conflict resolution strategies, and (2) working toward a verbalized common goal. In session 2, we created the diabetes management plan tool according to these findings and will use it in a clinical trial with the aim of assisting with patient-centered goal setting. Conclusions: Patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus can be effectively engaged and involved in patient-centered research design. Teens with type 1 diabetes mellitus prioritize reducing family conflict and fitting into their social milieu over health outcomes at this time in their lives. It is important to acknowledge this when designing interventions to improve health outcomes in teens with type 1 diabetes mellitus

Integration of professional judgement and decision-making in high-level adventure sports coaching practice

This study examined the integration of professional judgement and decision-making processes in adventure sports coaching. The study utilised a thematic analysis approach to investigate the decision-making practices of a sample of high-level adventure sports coaches over a series of sessions. Results revealed that, in order to make judgements and decisions in practice, expert coaches employ a range of practical and pedagogic management strategies to create and opportunistically use time for decision-making. These approaches include span of control and time management strategies to facilitate the decision-making process regarding risk management, venue selection, aims, objectives, session content, and differentiation of the coaching process. The implication for coaches, coach education, and accreditation is the recognition and training of the approaches that“create time” for the judgements in practice, namely“creating space to think”. The paper concludes by offering a template for a more expertise-focused progression in adventure sports coachin

Muonium as a hydrogen analogue in silicon and germanium; quantum effects and hyperfine parameters

We report a first-principles theoretical study of hyperfine interactions, zero-point effects and defect energetics of muonium and hydrogen impurities in silicon and germanium. The spin-polarized density functional method is used, with the crystalline orbitals expanded in all-electron Gaussian basis sets. The behaviour of hydrogen and muonium impurities at both the tetrahedral and bond-centred sites is investigated within a supercell approximation. To describe the zero-point motion of the impurities, a double adiabatic approximation is employed in which the electron, muon/proton and host lattice degrees of freedom are decoupled. Within this approximation the relaxation of the atoms of the host lattice may differ for the muon and proton, although in practice the difference is found to be slight. With the inclusion of zero-point motion the tetrahedral site is energetically preferred over the bond-centred site in both silicon and germanium. The hyperfine and superhyperfine parameters, calculated as averages over the motion of the muon, agree reasonably well with the available data from muon spin resonance experiments.Comment: 20 pages, including 9 figures. To appear in Phys. Rev.

Selective inhibition of FLT3 by gilteritinib in relapsed or refractory acute myeloid leukaemia: a multicentre, first-in-human, open-label, phase 1-2 study.

BackgroundInternal tandem duplication mutations in FLT3 are common in acute myeloid leukaemia and are associated with rapid relapse and short overall survival. The clinical benefit of FLT3 inhibitors in patients with acute myeloid leukaemia has been limited by rapid generation of resistance mutations, particularly in codon Asp835 (D835). We aimed to assess the highly selective oral FLT3 inhibitor gilteritinib in patients with relapsed or refractory acute myeloid leukaemia.MethodsIn this phase 1-2 trial, we enrolled patients aged 18 years or older with acute myeloid leukaemia who either were refractory to induction therapy or had relapsed after achieving remission with previous treatment. Patients were enrolled into one of seven dose-escalation or dose-expansion cohorts assigned to receive once-daily doses of oral gilteritinib (20 mg, 40 mg, 80 mg, 120 mg, 200 mg, 300 mg, or 450 mg). Cohort expansion was based on safety and tolerability, FLT3 inhibition in correlative assays, and antileukaemic activity. Although the presence of an FLT3 mutation was not an inclusion criterion, we required ten or more patients with locally confirmed FLT3 mutations (FLT3mut+) to be enrolled in expansion cohorts at each dose level. On the basis of emerging findings, we further expanded the 120 mg and 200 mg dose cohorts to include FLT3mut+ patients only. The primary endpoints were the safety, tolerability, and pharmacokinetics of gilteritinib. Safety and tolerability were assessed in the safety analysis set (all patients who received at least one dose of gilteritinib). Responses were assessed in the full analysis set (all patients who received at least one dose of study drug and who had at least one datapoint post-treatment). Pharmacokinetics were assessed in a subset of the safety analysis set for which sufficient data for concentrations of gilteritinib in plasma were available to enable derivation of one or more pharmacokinetic variables. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02014558, and is ongoing.FindingsBetween Oct 15, 2013, and Aug 27, 2015, 252 adults with relapsed or refractory acute myeloid leukaemia received oral gilteritinib once daily in one of seven dose-escalation (n=23) or dose-expansion (n=229) cohorts. Gilteritinib was well tolerated; the maximum tolerated dose was established as 300 mg/day when two of three patients enrolled in the 450 mg dose-escalation cohort had two dose-limiting toxicities (grade 3 diarrhoea and grade 3 elevated aspartate aminotransferase). The most common grade 3-4 adverse events irrespective of relation to treatment were febrile neutropenia (97 [39%] of 252), anaemia (61 [24%]), thrombocytopenia (33 [13%]), sepsis (28 [11%]), and pneumonia (27 [11%]). Commonly reported treatment-related adverse events were diarrhoea (92 [37%] of 252]), anaemia (86 [34%]), fatigue (83 [33%]), elevated aspartate aminotransferase (65 [26%]), and increased alanine aminotransferase (47 [19%]). Serious adverse events occurring in 5% or more of patients were febrile neutropenia (98 [39%] of 252; five related to treatment), progressive disease (43 [17%]), sepsis (36 [14%]; two related to treatment), pneumonia (27 [11%]), acute renal failure (25 [10%]; five related to treatment), pyrexia (21 [8%]; three related to treatment), bacteraemia (14 [6%]; one related to treatment), and respiratory failure (14 [6%]). 95 people died in the safety analysis set, of which seven deaths were judged possibly or probably related to treatment (pulmonary embolism [200 mg/day], respiratory failure [120 mg/day], haemoptysis [80 mg/day], intracranial haemorrhage [20 mg/day], ventricular fibrillation [120 mg/day], septic shock [80 mg/day], and neutropenia [120 mg/day]). An exposure-related increase in inhibition of FLT3 phosphorylation was noted with increasing concentrations in plasma of gilteritinib. In-vivo inhibition of FLT3 phosphorylation occurred at all dose levels. At least 90% of FLT3 phosphorylation inhibition was seen by day 8 in most patients receiving a daily dose of 80 mg or higher. 100 (40%) of 249 patients in the full analysis set achieved a response, with 19 (8%) achieving complete remission, ten (4%) complete remission with incomplete platelet recovery, 46 (18%) complete remission with incomplete haematological recovery, and 25 (10%) partial remission INTERPRETATION: Gilteritinib had a favourable safety profile and showed consistent FLT3 inhibition in patients with relapsed or refractory acute myeloid leukaemia. These findings confirm that FLT3 is a high-value target for treatment of relapsed or refractory acute myeloid leukaemia; based on activity data, gilteritinib at 120 mg/day is being tested in phase 3 trials.FundingAstellas Pharma, National Cancer Institute (Leukemia Specialized Program of Research Excellence grant), Associazione Italiana Ricerca sul Cancro

Managing affect in learners' questions in undergraduate science

This is the author's accepted manuscript. The final published article is available from the link below. Copyright @ 2012 Society for Research into Higher Education.This article aims to position students' classroom questioning within the literature surrounding affect and its impact on learning. The article consists of two main sections. First, the act of questioning is discussed in order to highlight how affect shapes the process of questioning, and a four-part genesis to question-asking that we call CARE is described: the construction, asking, reception and evaluation of a learner's question. This work is contextualised through studies in science education and through our work with university students in undergraduate chemistry, although conducted in the firm belief that it has more general application. The second section focuses on teaching strategies to encourage and manage learners' questions, based here upon the conviction that university students in this case learn through questioning, and that an inquiry-based environment promotes better learning than a simple ‘transmission’ setting. Seven teaching strategies developed from the authors' work are described, where university teachers ‘scaffold’ learning through supporting learners' questions, and working with these to structure and organise the content and the shape of their teaching. The article concludes with a summary of the main issues, highlighting the impact of the affective dimension of learning through questioning, and a discussion of the implications for future research

Cost-effectiveness of adjunct non-pharmacological interventions for osteoarthritis of the knee

BACKGROUND: There is limited information on the costs and benefits of alternative adjunct non-pharmacological treatments for knee osteoarthritis and little guidance on which should be prioritised for commissioning within the NHS. This study estimates the costs and benefits of acupuncture, braces, heat treatment, insoles, interferential therapy, laser/light therapy, manual therapy, neuromuscular electrical stimulation, pulsed electrical stimulation, pulsed electromagnetic fields, static magnets and transcutaneous electrical nerve Stimulation (TENS), based on all relevant data, to facilitate a more complete assessment of value. METHODS: Data from 88 randomised controlled trials including 7,507 patients were obtained from a systematic review. The studies reported a wide range of outcomes. These were converted into EQ-5D index values using prediction models, and synthesised using network meta-analysis. Analyses were conducted including firstly all trials and secondly only trials with low risk of selection bias. Resource use was estimated from trials, expert opinion and the literature. A decision analytic model synthesised all evidence to assess interventions over a typical treatment period (constant benefit over eight weeks or linear increase in effect over weeks zero to eight and dissipation over weeks eight to 16). RESULTS: When all trials are considered, TENS is cost-effective at thresholds of £20-30,000 per QALY with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £2,690 per QALY vs. usual care. When trials with a low risk of selection bias are considered, acupuncture is cost-effective with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £13,502 per QALY vs. TENS. The results of the analysis were sensitive to varying the intensity, with which interventions were delivered, and the magnitude and duration of intervention effects on EQ-5D. CONCLUSIONS: Using the £20,000 per QALY NICE threshold results in TENS being cost-effective if all trials are considered. If only higher quality trials are considered, acupuncture is cost-effective at this threshold, and thresholds down to £14,000 per QALY

Relationships among HIV infection, metabolic risk factors, and left ventricular structure and function

Our objective was to determine if the presence of metabolic complications (MC) conveyed an additional risk for left ventricular (LV) dysfunction in people with HIV. HIV(+) and HIV(−) men and women were categorized into four groups: (1) HIV(+) with MC (43±7 years, n=64), (2) HIV(+) without MC (42±7 years, n=59), (3) HIV(−) with MC (44±8 years, n=37), or (4) HIV(−) controls without MC (42±8 years, n=41). All participants underwent two-dimensional (2-D), Doppler, and tissue Doppler echocardiography. Overall, the prevalence of systolic dysfunction (15 vs. 4%, p=0.02) and LV hypertrophy (9 vs. 1%, p=0.03) was greater in HIV(+) than in HIV(−) participants. Participants with MC had a greater prevalence of LV hypertrophy (10% vs. 1%). Early mitral annular velocity during diastole was significantly (p<0.005) lower in groups with MC (HIV(+)/MC(+): 11.6±2.3, HIV(−)/MC(+): 12.0±2.3 vs. HIV(+)/MC(−): 12.4±2.3, HIV(−)/MC(−): 13.1±2.4 cm/s) and tended to be lower in groups with HIV (p=0.10). However, there was no interaction effect of HIV and MC for any systolic or diastolic variable. Regardless of HIV status, participants with MC had reduced LV diastolic function. Although both the presence of MC and HIV infection were associated with lower diastolic function, there was no additive negative effect of HIV on diastolic function beyond the effect of MC. Also, HIV was independently associated with lower systolic function. Clinical monitoring of LV function in individuals with metabolic risk factors, regardless of HIV status, is warranted

The landscape of gifted and talented education in England and Wales: How are teachers implementing policy?

This is an Author's Accepted Manuscript of an article published in Research Papers in Education, 27(2), 167-186, 2012, copyright Taylor & Francis, available online at: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/02671522.2010.509514.This paper explores the evidence relating to how primary schools are responding to the ‘gifted and talented’ initiative in England and Wales. A questionnaire survey which invited both closed and open-ended responses was carried out with a national sample of primary schools. The survey indicated an increasing proportion of coordinators, compared with a survey carried out in 1996, were identifying their gifted and talented children as well as having associated school policies. However, the survey also highlighted a number of issues which need addressing if the initiative is to achieve its objective of providing the best possible educational opportunities for children. For example, it was found that a significant number of practitioners were not aware of the existence of the National Quality Standards for gifted and talented education, provided by the UK government in 2007, and the subject-specific criteria provided by the UK’s Curriculum Authority for identification and provision have been largely ignored. The process of identifying children to be placed on the ‘gifted and talented’ register seems haphazard and based on pragmatic reasons. Analysis of teachers’ responses also revealed a range of views and theoretical positioning held by them, which have implications for classroom practice. As the ‘gifted and talented’ initiative in the UK is entering a second decade, and yet more significant changes in policy are introduced, pertinent questions need to be raised and given consideration