Perturbation analysis in finite LD‐QBD processes and applications to epidemic models

In this paper, our interest is in the perturbation analysis of level‐dependent quasi‐birth‐and‐death (LD‐QBD) processes, which constitute a wide class of structured Markov chains. An LD‐QBD process has the special feature that its space of states can be structured by levels (groups of states), so that a tridiagonal‐by‐blocks structure is obtained for its infinitesimal generator. For these processes, a number of algorithmic procedures exist in the literature in order to compute several performance measures while exploiting the underlying matrix structure; among others, these measures are related to first‐passage times to a certain level L(0) and hitting probabilities at this level, the maximum level visited by the process before reaching states of level L(0), and the stationary distribution. For the case of a finite number of states, our aim here is to develop analogous algorithms to the ones analyzing these measures, for their perturbation analysis. This approach uses matrix calculus and exploits the specific structure of the infinitesimal generator, which allows us to obtain additional information during the perturbation analysis of the LD‐QBD process by dealing with specific matrices carrying probabilistic insights of the dynamics of the process. We illustrate the approach by means of applying multitype versions of the susceptible‐infective (SI) and susceptible‐infective‐susceptible (SIS) epidemic models to the spread of antibiotic‐sensitive and antibiotic‐resistant bacterial strains in a hospital ward

Modelamiento y pron?sticos usando modelos TAR en algunas series de tiempo hidrol?gicas y meteorol?gicas del Tolima

44 p. Recurso Electr?nicoEn este trabajo de grado se presenta el modelamiento y pron?sticos de una serie de tiempo hidrol?gica y meteorol?gica a trav?s de un modelo TAR con dos reg?menes, en donde tenemos en cuenta ?pocas de mucha lluvia y ?pocas de poca lluvia. Se toman como variable de inter?s es el caudal del r?o Coello medido en una estaci?n hidrol?gica del IDEAM en la vereda Coello Cocora de Ibagu?, la precipitaci?n se toma como variable de umbrales y es medida en el municipio de Cajamarca. Adem?s la estimaci?n de par?metros se calcula a trav?s de m?todos Bayesianos y t?cnicas MCMC. Se realiza un ejemplo simulado y otro con los datos emp?ricos mencionados anteriormente; dando resultados positivos en la estimaci?n de par?metros y el c?lculo de pron?sticos, este ?ltimo presenta desviaciones est?ndar grandes e intervalos de credibilidad anchos que pueden ser producto de trabajos futuros. Palabras clave: Modelos TAR, t?cnicas MCMC, metodolog?a Bayesiana, estimaci?n de par?metros, c?lculo de pron?sticos

La exclusi?n educativa de los estudiantes con discapacidad de la jurisdicci?n de Veracruz en el municipio de Alvarado ? Tolima

103 P?ginasLa Exclusi?n Educativa es un fen?meno que se viene presentando en todo el territorio nacional. La Instituci?n Educativa Luis Carlos Gal?n Sarmiento no es ajeno a esta problem?tica y ha visto la necesidad de mirar con buenos ojos la exclusi?n de los ni?os, ni?as y j?venes con discapacidad. El rechazo, el abandono, la relegaci?n, la burla y la discriminaci?n hacen parte de esa relegaci?n dentro de las Escuelas. Adem?s, existe un choque did?ctico, porque los profesores no est?n preparados para ense?ar a los ni?os con necesidades educativas especiales. Por consiguiente, los padres de familia se enfrentan con los docentes, por el inadecuado aprendizaje de sus hijos.ABSTRACT The Educational Exclusion is a phenomenon that is in all our country, The Educational Institute Luis Carlos Galan of Alvarado (Tolima) is not uncommented to this difficulty and has seen the necessity to look with good and the exclusion of girls, boys and teenagers with disabled conditions. The rejection, the abandoning, the relegation, the mockery, and discrimination make part of this exclusion into the schools. Besides, there is a didactic impact because the teachers are not prepared to teach to children with special educational needs. The parents reject the teachers for inadequate formation of their children.ADVERTENCIA La Facultad de Ciencias de la Educaci?n de la Universidad del Tolima, el director, codirector y el jurado calificador, no son responsables de los conceptos, ni de las ideas expuestas por los autores del presente trabajo. Art?culo 16, Acuerdo 032 de 1976 y Art?culo 29, Acuerdo 064 de 1991, emanados por el Consejo Acad?mico de la Universidad del Tolima.INTRODUCCION 12 1. FORMULACION DEL PROBLEMA 16 1.1 PLANTEAMIENTO DEL PROBLEMA 16 1.2 FORMULACION DEL PROBLEMA 19 1.2.1 Pregunta Principal 19 1.2.2 Pregunta Secundaria 20 2. JUSTIFICACION 23 3. OBJETIVOS 23 3.1 OBJETIVO GENERAL 23 3.2 OBJETIVOS ESPECIFICOS 23 4. MARCO DE REFERENCIA 24 4.1 MARCO TEORICO Y CONCEPTUAL 24 4.1.1 Inclusi?n Educativa 24 4.1.2. La discapacidad 4.1.3 M?todos para tratar la discapacidad 4.1.4 Proceso t?cnico pedag?gico de la discapacidad 32 42 45 4.2 MARCO JURIDICO Y LEGAL DE LA DISCAPACIDAD 46 4.2.1 Ley de Infancia y Adolescencia- decreto 1098 de 2006. 49 4.2.2 Sentencias referentes a la discapacidad 51 4.2.3 Marco legal de la discapacidad en el contexto internacional 52 4.2.4 Marco legal en el contexto nacional 53 4.2.5 Pol?tica de infancia y adolescencia del Departamento del Tolima 55 5. METODOLOGIA 57 5.1. TIPO DE INVESTIGACION 57 5.2. PARTICIPANTES 57 5.3. TECNICAS E INSTRUMENTOS 58 5.4. PROCEDIMIENTOS 58 6. ANALISIS DE RESULTADOS 60 6.1 LA DISCAPACIDAD EN LA INSTITUCION EDUCATIVA LUIS CARLOS GALAN SARMIENTO DE LA JURISDICCION DE VERACRUZ EN EL MUNICIPIO DE ALVARADO (TOLIMA). 60 9 P?g. 6.2 FACTORES DE EXCLUSION Y VULNERABILIDAD 67 6.3 ESTRATEGIAS METODOLOGICAS Y MATERIAL DE APOYO PARA LA DISCAPACIDAD 69 7. CONCLUSIONES 74 REFERENCIAS 78 ANEXOS 80 1

Estrategias pedag?gicas para el mejoramiento de la significaci?n en los procesos de la lectura y la escritura en ni?os de primero de primaria del Instituto Agropecuario Veracruz

121 p. Recurso Electr?nicoEste proyecto surge de la recopilaci?n de informaci?n obtenida en el Instituto Agropecuario Veracruz, con el fin de plantear una posible alternativa de fortalecimiento a la problem?tica detectada en cuanto a los procesos de significaci?n de la lectura y escritura en los primeros a?os de escolaridad. Su valor radica en el poder dimensionar la lectura y escritura como procesos socioculturales que traen innumerables significados. Esta inmersi?n de los ni?os en el medio provee un campo de acci?n con una funci?n social y comunicativa fuerte, que deben ser aprovechadas para lograr aprendizajes significativos. Por lo que las pr?cticas pedag?gicas tradicionales, con planas, repetici?n de graf?as, s?labas o palabras aisladas de un contexto, no tienen lugar en la significaci?n. Es as? como, a trav?s de diferentes actividades en el proyecto de intervenci?n se pretend?a dar resoluci?n al siguiente interrogante, ?C?mo fortalecer los procesos de significaci?n de la lectura y la escritura en los ni?os y ni?as de primero del Instituto Agropecuario Veracruz que estimulen su participaci?n, comprensi?n lectora y gusto por la lectura? De tal manera que el inter?s y la motivaci?n estuvieran presentes en el sentir de los ni?os y ni?as durante el desarrollo de la intervenci?n. Palabras claves: Lectura, escritura, significaci?n.This project arises from the collection of information obtained in Instituto Agropecuario Veracruz, in order to propose a possible alternative of strengthening the problems detected in terms of processes significance of reading and writing in the early years of schooling. Its value lies in the power dimensioning reading and writing as sociocultural processes that bring innumerable meanings. This immersion of children in the middle provides a field of action with a strong social and communicative function, which must be harnessed to achieve significant learning. So the traditional teaching practices, with flat, repeating spellings, syllables or words of a context, have no place in significance. Thus, through different activities in the project intervention it was intended to resolve the following question, How to strengthen the processes of significance of reading and writing in children first of Instituto Agropecuario Veracruz to encourage their participation, understanding reader and pleasure of reading? So that the interest and motivation were present in the feelings of the children during the development of the intervention. Keywords: Reading, writing, significance

Estrategias pedag?gicas para el mejoramiento de la significaci?n en los procesos de la lectura y la escritura en ni?os de primero de primaria del instituto agropecuario Veracr?z

121 p. Recurso Electr?nicoEste proyecto surge de la recopilaci?n de informaci?n obtenida en el Instituto Agropecuario Veracruz, con el fin de plantear una posible alternativa de fortalecimiento a la problem?tica detectada en cuanto a los procesos de significaci?n de la lectura y escritura en los primeros a?os de escolaridad. Su valor radica en el poder dimensionar la lectura y escritura como procesos socioculturales que traen innumerables significados. Esta inmersi?n de los ni?os en el medio provee un campo de acci?n con una funci?n social y comunicativa fuerte, que deben ser aprovechadas para lograr aprendizajes significativos. Por lo que las pr?cticas pedag?gicas tradicionales, con planas, repetici?n de graf?as, s?labas o palabras aisladas de un contexto, no tienen lugar en la significaci?n. Es as? como, a trav?s de diferentes actividades en el proyecto de intervenci?n se pretend?a dar resoluci?n al siguiente interrogante, ?C?mo fortalecer los procesos de significaci?n de la lectura y la escritura en los ni?os y ni?as de primero del Instituto Agropecuario Veracruz que estimulen su participaci?n, comprensi?n lectora y gusto por la lectura? De tal manera que el inter?s y la motivaci?n estuvieran presentes en el sentir de los ni?os y ni?as durante el desarrollo de la intervenci?n. Palabras claves: Lectura, escritura, significaci?n.This project arises from the collection of information obtained in Instituto Agropecuario Veracruz, in order to propose a possible alternative of strengthening the problems detected in terms of processes significance of reading and writing in the early years of schooling. Its value lies in the power dimensioning reading and writing as sociocultural processes that bring innumerable meanings. This immersion of children in the middle provides a field of action with a strong social and communicative function, which must be harnessed to achieve significant learning. So the traditional teaching practices, with flat, repeating spellings, syllables or words of a context, have no place in significance. Thus, through different activities in the project intervention it was intended to resolve the following question, How to strengthen the processes of significance of reading and writing in children first of Instituto Agropecuario Veracruz to encourage their participation, understanding reader and pleasure of reading? So that the interest and motivation were present in the feelings of the children during the development of the intervention. Keywords: Reading, writing, significanc

Predicting potential global and future distributions of the African armyworm (Spodoptera exempta) using species distribution models.

This is the final version. Available from Nature Research via the DOI in this record. Data availability The datasets generated during and/or analysed during the current study will be available in the DRYAD repository, after the manuscript is accepted [https://datadryad.org/stash/share/t-EgQOweHgcOHQ_paK1ao6PQuRsnjkGCSh63_HD4n00] with DOI number [https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.sbcc2fr9b].Invasive species have historically been a problem derived from global trade and transport. To aid in the control and management of these species, species distribution models (SDMs) have been used to help predict possible areas of expansion. Our focal organism, the African Armyworm (AAW), has historically been known as an important pest species in Africa, occurring at high larval densities and causing outbreaks that can cause enormous economic damage to staple crops. The goal of this study is to map the AAW's present and potential distribution in three future scenarios for the region, and the potential global distribution if the species were to invade other territories, using 40 years of data on more than 700 larval outbreak reports from Kenya and Tanzania. The present distribution in East Africa coincides with its previously known distribution, as well as other areas of grassland and cropland, which are the host plants for this species. The different future climatic scenarios show broadly similar potential distributions in East Africa to the present day. The predicted global distribution shows areas where the AAW has already been reported, but also shows many potential areas in the Americas where, if transported, environmental conditions are suitable for AAW to thrive and where it could become an invasive species.Biotechnology & Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC

Radon Exposure and Neurodegenerative Disease

Background: To carry out a systematic review of scientific literature about the association between radon exposure and neurodegenerative diseases. Methods: We performed a bibliographic search in the following databases: Pub med (Medline), Cochrane, BioMed Central and Web of Science. We collected the data by following a predetermined search strategy in which several terms werecombined. After an initial search, 77 articles were obtained.10 of which fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Five of these 10 studies were related to multiple sclerosis (MS), 2 were about motor neuron diseases (MND), in particular amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and 3 were related to both Alzheimer's disease (AD) and Parkinson's disease (PD). Results: The majority of the included articles, suggested a possible association between radon exposure and a subsequent development of neurodegenerative diseases. Some of the studies that obtained statistically significant resultsrevealed a possible association between radon exposure and an increase in MS prevalence. Furthermore, it was also suggested that radon exposure increases MND and AD mortality. Regarding AD and PD, it was observed that certainde cay products of radon-222 ((222)Rn), specifically polonium-210 ((210)Po) and bismuth-210 ((210)Bi), present a characteristic distributionpattern within the brain anatomy. However, the study with the highest scientific evidence included in this review, which investigated a possible association between the concentration of residential radon gas and the MS incidence, revealed no significant results. Conclusions: It cannot be concluded, although it is observed, that there is a possible causal association between radon exposure and neurodegenerative diseases. Most of the available studies are ecological so, studies of higher statistical evidence are needed to establish a causal relationship. Further research is needed on this topic

Cambio conceptual en estudiantes del departamento del Tolima frente al conocimiento biol?gico de serpientes, prevenci?n y primeros auxilios ante el accidente of?dico, a partir de una propuesta de educaci?n ambiental enfocada al aprendizaje basado en problemas

102 p. Recurso Electr?nicoLas serpientes son causantes de alrededor de tres millones de accidentes por mordeduras al a?o en el mundo. Desde el a?o 2004, la Organizaci?n Mundial de la Salud consider? esto como problem?tica de salud p?blica. En Colombia, se han determinado ocho familias de serpientes, 71 g?neros y 270 especies, de las cuales 37 son venenosas. En la regi?n del Tolima, por su ubicaci?n y configuraci?n geogr?fica, diversidad altitudinal y climatol?gica, se han logrado identificar 61 especies, de las cuales tan solo 8 son venenosas, sin embargo, la incidencia del accidente of?dico constituye una alerta epidemiol?gica en el pa?s. Los intentos para enfrentar esta problem?tica se han basado primordialmente en la fabricaci?n de sueros antiof?dicos y protocolos hospitalarios, pero es notable relativamente, la falta de estrategias de prevenci?n. Este estudio abarca la problem?tica de la accidentalidad of?dica de manera pedag?gica y did?ctica fundamentada en el aprendizaje basado en problemas (ABP), el cual evalu? el estado de conocimiento y cambio conceptual acerca de las serpientes, en una poblaci?n del departamento del Tolima. Se determin? que el Aprendizaje Basado en Problemas (ABP), como m?todo de ense?anza y aprendizaje, tuvo buena recepci?n por los estudiantes, tambi?n el uso de material biol?gico favoreci? el desarrollo de los talleres, porque las concepciones sobre los temas abordados mejoraron en comparaci?n con sus conocimientos previos. Palabras claves: Educaci?n ambiental, serpientes, concepcionesSnakes are causative for about three million bite accidents a year in the world. Since 2004, the World Health Organization considered this as a public health problem. In Colombia, eight families of snakes, 71 genera and 270 species have been established, of which 37 are poisonous. In the Tolima region, due to its location and geographical configuration, altitudinal and climatological diversity, 61 species have been identified, of which only 8 are poisonous; however, the incidence of the ophidian accident establishes an epidemiological alert in the country. Attempts to deal with this problem have been based primarily on the manufacture of antivenom sera and hospital protocols, but it?s relatively noticeable, the lack of prevention strategies. This study comprises the ophidian accident issue in a pedagogical and didactic way supported on problem-based learning (PBL), which evaluated the state of knowledge and conceptual change about snakes in a population of the department of Tolima. It was determined that the problem-based learning (PBL), as a teaching and learning method, was well received by the students, the use of biological material also favored the development of the workshops, because the conceptions on the addressed topics improved compared to their previous knowledge Keywords: Environmental education, snakes, conceptio

Quasi-Exact Solvability and the direct approach to invariant subspaces

We propose a more direct approach to constructing differential operators that preserve polynomial subspaces than the one based on considering elements of the enveloping algebra of sl(2). This approach is used here to construct new exactly solvable and quasi-exactly solvable quantum Hamiltonians on the line which are not Lie-algebraic. It is also applied to generate potentials with multiple algebraic sectors. We discuss two illustrative examples of these two applications: an interesting generalization of the Lam\'e potential which posses four algebraic sectors, and a quasi-exactly solvable deformation of the Morse potential which is not Lie-algebraic.Comment: 17 pages, 3 figure