Beyond Bubbles: The role of asset prices in early-warning indicators

Asset prices have recently become a common topic in economic debate. Nevertheless, much time has been spent in determining if they effectively exhibit a bubble component, and not in examining whether asset prices affectively contain relevant information concerning future market developments. This paper is a first effort in Colombia in this direction, aimed towards the construction of early - warning indicators using financial and real variables. Results show evidence to support that there is relevant information embedded in these series, as all indicators (except the new housing price indicator) show a significant deviation for the year(s) prior to the 98-99 crisis. Additionally, the exercises here conducted show that the performance of asset price indicators is enhanced by including credit and investment. When the early-warning indicators are on, the role of the policy maker should be more active in the market; not necessarily in terms of altering interest rates, but in communicating with market agents, promoting portfolio and perspective (i.e. short and long-term) diversification and urging financial agents to make the best use of the tools that are available to them.Asset Price Bubbles, Early-Warning Indicators, Present Value Model, Financial Crisis, Prudential Regulation. Classification JEL: E58; E44; G12; G18.

Analysis of competitiveness in Colombian family businesses

Purpose: Building on the resource-based view and the configuration theory, the purpose of this study uses a systemic and multidimensional competitiveness index (CI) i.e. that incorporates system constraints among the 10 competitive pillars that form the index to assess the competitiveness level and the connection between competitiveness and economic performance [return on assets (ROA)] in family businesses (FBs). Design/methodology/approach: For the empirical application, the use a unique primary data set drawn from the global competitiveness project (www.gcp.org) that includes information for 77 Colombian FBs for 2017. Cluster analysis is used to evaluate the potential relationship between competitiveness, the configuration of competitive pillars and economic performance (ROA). Findings: The results for the CI show that the main competitive strengths of the analysed firms are related to the introduction of product innovations and networks (suppliers and customers), while the limited use of technologies in their operations and the low online presence are the main competitive weaknesses of these firms. Additionally, the findings of the cluster analysis reveal that different configurations of competitiveness pillars are associated with different performance levels. Therefore, the results contribute to identifying how specific strategies aimed at improving different resources or capabilities contribute to enhance business competitiveness, and ultimately, performance. Originality/value: By using an index number that takes into account the multiple interactions between resources and capabilities, the proposed analysis not only sheds light on the drivers of competitiveness i.e. resources and capabilities, and its connection to performance but also contributes to understanding the boundaries of the businesses’ competitiveness system, as well as the strategies that can potentially enhance competitiveness, and subsequently, business performance.Peer ReviewedPreprin

Derivative Markets' Impact on Colombian Monetary Policy

Derivatives are contingent claims that complete financial markets. Their use allow agents and firms to ameliorate the impact over con- sumption, production and investment given a change in relative prices induced by an active monetary policy. In this sense, derivatives gene- rate in some cases a loss in the effectiveness of the traditional monetary transmission channels in the short run, and in others, they promote an increase in the speed of transmission itself. Using an investment model, the impact of the use of interest rate and exchange rate derivatives in the dilution of colombian monetary channels is verified. Empirical exercises suggest that monetary policy has lost effectiveness in the short run.In spite of the surprise this result may offer given the relative im- matureness of domestic derivative markets, the marginal effect of these instruments appears to be significant, in the face of local financial mar- kets' imperfections. In addition, not only the hedge directly taken by firms with access to this instruments matter; there could be hedging spill-overs whenever commercial banks use derivatives, which allow for a more stable and cheap credit supply for firms with no access to those markets. The natural recommendation deriving from this conclusion suggests an urgent analysis of the derivatives impact over the speed of monetary transmission in Colombia.Derivatives; Monetary Policy Transmission Channels;Investment

Determinants of Interest Margins in Colombia

This paper analyzes the determinants of interest margins in the Colombian Financial System. Based on the model by Ho and Saun- ders (1981), interest margins are modelled as a function of the pure spread and bank-speci¯c institutional imperfections using quarterly data for the period 1994:IV-2005:III. Additionally, the pure spread is estimated as a function of market power and interest rate volatility. Results indicate that interest margins are mainly a®ected by credit institutions' ine±ciency and to a lesser extent by credit risk exposure and market power. This implies that public policies should be ori- ented towards creating the necessary market conditions for banks to enhance their e±ciency.Interest Margins, Competition, Credit Risk, Interest Rate Risk.

The differentiated impact of role models and social fear of failure over the entrepreneurial activities of rural youths

The main objective of this study is to determine the differential impact of certain socio-cultural variables (such as entrepreneurial self-confidence, role models and fear of failure) on the entrepreneurial process of Spanish rural youths. In consonance with the new rural policy paradigm, the European Commission and the OECD are proposing entrepreneurship as a tool for economic diversification and endogenous rural development. Entrepreneurship is associated in rural areas with economic vitality and prosperity. Entrepreneurship in rural areas becomes a means for capturing and optimizing the true natural, social and human capital of a territory as well as a source of opportunity and welfare for the local population. However, in a context where many rural areas are suffering from an aging and retiring population, the emphasis on developing an entrepreneurially active community becomes especially important within the segment of rural youths. Environmental and social-cultural factors have been used to explain differences in entrepreneurship across territories, including the rural urban divide. This line of research has found that certain variables, such as the local presence of role models and the social stigma of failure, have a differential impact over entrepreneurial activity across certain segments of the population (gender, immigrant status). Therefore, this study has the objective to verify whether age affects the impact that certain socio-cultural variables have on the entrepreneurial process of rural and urban youths. The methodology used in this study is the logistic regression model for rare events, with a database of the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor in Spain for 2009, which has a sample of 26,990 adults. The study shows that young adults in Spain have a higher propensity for entrepreneurial activity than the rest of the population, but discriminating between urban and rural youth, the latter are less likely to be entrepreneurs. Amongst younger-aged individuals, social-cultural factors are found to have a differential impact on entrepreneurship across the rural-urban divide.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author’s final draft

Instrumentos históricos del CSIC: una herramienta para la divulgación científica

Conferencia "Instrumentos históricos del CSIC: una herramienta para la divulgación científica" impartida por Esteban Moreno Gómez en el marco del Curso "Cultura Científica: Divulgación y Comunicación de la Ciencia" los días 13,14 y 15 de Junio de 2016 en Madrid. Organizado por la Vicepresidencia Adjunta de Cultura Científica del Consejo Superior de investigaciones Científicas. Documento en formato PDF de 17 páginas con gráficos e imágenes a color. Plan de Identificación, Recuperación y Conservación de Instrumentos y Aparatos Científicos de Interés Histórico del CSIC.El patrimonio de aparatos científicos del Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas nos permite comprender la historia de la institución y la historia de la ciencia en nuestro país. El CSIC ha puesto en marcha un Plan para la Recuperación de Instrumental Científico de Interés Histórico que tiene entre sus objetivos divulgar la actividad científica que se realizaba con estos aparatos y así comprender mejor la necesidad de conservarlos. Durante la charla se explicará en qué consiste este Plan para la Recuperación de Instrumental Científico de Interés Histórico, como se está llevando a cabo y las principales dificultades y obstáculos que van apareciendo.N

Gender diversity in the board, women’s leadership and business performance

Purpose: This paper investigates how gender diversity in top management—i.e., boardroom and top management positions—impacts business performance among Colombian public businesses. Design/methodology/approach: Building on the Upper Echelon theory which emphasizes that gender in an important characteristic that influences top management’s decision making, we employ panel data models on a sample of 54 Colombian public businesses for the period 2008-2015 to test the proposed hypotheses relating gender diversity and subsequent business performance. Findings: The results support that gender diversity is positively associated with subsequent business performance. More concretely, we find that the relationship between gender diversity at the top of the corporate hierarchy—in our case, as CEO and in the top management team—and subsequent performance becomes more evident when performance is linked to business operations (ROA), while the positive effect of women’s representation in the boardroom and subsequent performance is significant when performance is measured via shareholder-oriented metrics (ROE). Originality/value: Few studies have addressed the role of gender diversity on performance in developing economies. This study contributes to better understand how gender diversity impacts performance in contexts where women are underrepresented in the top management, and where the appointment of women directors or managers is not driven by regulatory pressures.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft