The inflammatory microenvironment in colorectal neoplasia

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Statistical decadal predictions for sea surface temperatures: a benchmark for dynamical GCM predictions

Accurate decadal climate predictions could be used to inform adaptation actions to a changing climate. The skill of such predictions from initialised dynamical global climate models (GCMs) may be assessed by comparing with predictions from statistical models which are based solely on historical observations. This paper presents two benchmark statistical models for predicting both the radiatively forced trend and internal variability of annual mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on a decadal timescale based on the gridded observation data set HadISST. For both statistical models, the trend related to radiative forcing is modelled using a linear regression of SST time series at each grid box on the time series of equivalent global mean atmospheric CO2 concentration. The residual internal variability is then modelled by (1) a first-order autoregressive model (AR1) and (2) a constructed analogue model (CA). From the verification of 46 retrospective forecasts with start years from 1960 to 2005, the correlation coefficient for anomaly forecasts using trend with AR1 is greater than 0.7 over parts of extra-tropical North Atlantic, the Indian Ocean and western Pacific. This is primarily related to the prediction of the forced trend. More importantly, both CA and AR1 give skillful predictions of the internal variability of SSTs in the subpolar gyre region over the far North Atlantic for lead time of 2 to 5 years, with correlation coefficients greater than 0.5. For the subpolar gyre and parts of the South Atlantic, CA is superior to AR1 for lead time of 6 to 9 years. These statistical forecasts are also compared with ensemble mean retrospective forecasts by DePreSys, an initialised GCM. DePreSys is found to outperform the statistical models over large parts of North Atlantic for lead times of 2 to 5 years and 6 to 9 years, however trend with AR1 is generally superior to DePreSys in the North Atlantic Current region, while trend with CA is superior to DePreSys in parts of South Atlantic for lead time of 6 to 9 years. These findings encourage further development of benchmark statistical decadal prediction models, and methods to combine different predictions

Confidence and psychosis: a neuro-computational account of contingency learning disruption by NMDA blockade.

A state of pathological uncertainty about environmental regularities might represent a key step in the pathway to psychotic illness. Early psychosis can be investigated in healthy volunteers under ketamine, an NMDA receptor antagonist. Here, we explored the effects of ketamine on contingency learning using a placebo-controlled, double-blind, crossover design. During functional magnetic resonance imaging, participants performed an instrumental learning task, in which cue-outcome contingencies were probabilistic and reversed between blocks. Bayesian model comparison indicated that in such an unstable environment, reinforcement learning parameters are downregulated depending on confidence level, an adaptive mechanism that was specifically disrupted by ketamine administration. Drug effects were underpinned by altered neural activity in a fronto-parietal network, which reflected the confidence-based shift to exploitation of learned contingencies. Our findings suggest that an early characteristic of psychosis lies in a persistent doubt that undermines the stabilization of behavioral policy resulting in a failure to exploit regularities in the environment.FV was supported by the Groupe Pasteur Mutualité. RG was supported by the Fondation pour la Recherche Médicale and the Fondation Bettencourt Schueller. SP is supported by a Marie Curie Intra-European fellowship (FP7-PEOPLE-2012-IEF). AF was supported by National Health and Medical Research Council grants (IDs : 1050504 and 1066779) and an Australian Research Council Future Fellowship (ID: FT130100589). This work was supported by the Wellcome Trust and the Bernard Wolfe Health Neuroscience Fund.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from the Nature Publishing Group via http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/mp.2015.7

The behaviour of repeat visitors to museums: Review and empirical findings

This study presents a theoretical and operational framework for analysing repeat visit to museums. Starting from the literature on repeat visit in tourism, the specificities of these cultural attractions are made explicit through a review of theoretical and applied works. Consistently with previous contributors, the paper suggests that the analysis of actual past behaviours has to be preferred to the one of attitudes. The application of proper econometric models is also remarked in order to put into account individual profiles. Information coming from three techniques is then used in an integrated way in order to provide a more comprehensive view of the phenomenon. Evidence from an ad hoc survey suggests the necessity to give a greater attention to perceived cultural value during the visit, promoting cultural events during the week and addressed to children, and taking care of those visitors that come from far places also through an integrated tourist supply. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht

How Much Rugby is Too Much? A Seven-Season Prospective Cohort Study of Match Exposure and Injury Risk in Professional Rugby Union Players.

INTRODUCTION: Numerous studies have documented the incidence and nature of injuries in professional rugby union, but few have identified specific risk factors for injury in this population using appropriate statistical methods. In particular, little is known about the role of previous short-term or longer-term match exposures in current injury risk in this setting. OBJECTIVES: Our objective was to investigate the influence that match exposure has upon injury risk in rugby union. METHOD: We conducted a seven-season (2006/7-2012/13) prospective cohort study of time-loss injuries in 1253 English premiership professional players. Players' 12-month match exposure (number of matches a player was involved in for ≥20 min in the preceding 12 months) and 1-month match exposure (number of full-game equivalent [FGE] matches in preceding 30 days) were assessed as risk factors for injury using a nested frailty model and magnitude-based inferences. RESULTS: The 12-month match exposure was associated with injury risk in a non-linear fashion; players who had been involved in fewer than ≈15 or more than ≈35 matches over the preceding 12-month period were more susceptible to injury. Monthly match exposure was linearly associated with injury risk (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.14 per 2 standard deviation [3.2 FGE] increase, 90% confidence interval [CI] 1.08-1.20; likely harmful), although this effect was substantially attenuated for players in the upper quartile for 12-month match exposures (>28 matches). CONCLUSION: A player's accumulated (12-month) and recent (1-month) match exposure substantially influences their current injury risk. Careful attention should be paid to planning the workloads and monitoring the responses of players involved in: (1) a high (>≈35) number of matches in the previous year, (2) a low (<≈15) number of matches in the previous year, and (3) a low-moderate number of matches in previous year but who have played intensively in the recent past. These findings make a major contribution to evidence-based policy decisions regarding match workload limits in professional rugby union

MIDA boronates are hydrolysed fast and slow by two different mechanisms

MIDA boronates (N-methylimidodiacetic boronic acid esters) serve as an increasingly general platform for small-molecule construction based on building blocks, largely because of the dramatic and general rate differences with which they are hydrolysed under various basic conditions. Yet the mechanistic underpinnings of these rate differences have remained unclear, which has hindered efforts to address the current limitations of this chemistry. Here we show that there are two distinct mechanisms for this hydrolysis: one is base mediated and the other neutral. The former can proceed more than three orders of magnitude faster than the latter, and involves a rate-limiting attack by a hydroxide at a MIDA carbonyl carbon. The alternative 'neutral' hydrolysis does not require an exogenous acid or base and involves rate-limiting B-N bond cleavage by a small water cluster, (H2O)n. The two mechanisms can operate in parallel, and their relative rates are readily quantified by (18)O incorporation. Whether hydrolysis is 'fast' or 'slow' is dictated by the pH, the water activity and the mass-transfer rates between phases. These findings stand to enable, in a rational way, an even more effective and widespread utilization of MIDA boronates in synthesis

Usefulness and limitations of transthoracic echocardiography in heart transplantation recipients

Transthoracic echocardiography is a primary non-invasive modality for investigation of heart transplant recipients. It is a versatile tool which provides comprehensive information about cardiac structure and function. Echocardiographic examinations can be easily performed at the bedside and serially repeated without any patient's discomfort. This review highlights the usefulness of Doppler echocardiography in the assessment of left ventricular and right ventricular systolic and diastolic function, of left ventricular mass, valvular heart disease, pulmonary arterial hypertension and pericardial effusion in heart transplant recipients. The main experiences performed by either standard Doppler echocardiography and new high-tech ultrasound technologies are summarised, pointing out advantages and limitations of the described techniques in diagnosing acute allograft rejection and cardiac graft vasculopathy. Despite the sustained efforts of echocardiographic technique in predicting the biopsy state, endocardial myocardial biopsies are still regarded as the gold standard for detection of acute allograft rejection. Conversely, stress echocardiography is able to identify accurately cardiac graft vasculopathy and has a recognised prognostic in this clinical setting. A normal stress-echo justifies postponement of invasive studies. Another use of transthoracic echocardiography is the monitorisation and the visualisation of the catheter during the performance of endomyocardial biopsy. Bedside stress echocardiography is even useful to select appropriately heart donors with brain death. The ultrasound monitoring is simple and effective for monitoring a safe performance of biopsy procedures

Does neighborhood environment influence girls' pubertal onset? findings from a cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Pubertal onset occurs earlier than in the past among U.S. girls. Early onset is associated with numerous deleterious outcomes across the life course, including overweight, breast cancer and cardiovascular health. Increases in childhood overweight have been implicated as a key reason for this secular trend. Scarce research, however, has examined how neighborhood environment may influence overweight and, in turn, pubertal timing. The current study prospectively examined associations between neighborhood environment and timing of pubertal onset in a multi-ethnic cohort of girls. Body mass index (BMI) was examined as a mediator of these associations.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Participants were 213 girls, 6-8 years old at baseline, in an on-going longitudinal study. The current report is based on 5 time points (baseline and 4 annual follow-up visits). Neighborhood environment, assessed at baseline, used direct observation. Tanner stage and anthropometry were assessed annually in clinic. Survival analysis was utilized to investigate the influence of neighborhood factors on breast and pubic hair onset, with BMI as a mediator. We also examined the modifying role of girls' ethnicity.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>When adjusting for income, one neighborhood factor (Recreation) predicted delayed onset of breast and pubic hair development, but only for African American girls. BMI did not mediate the association between Recreation and pubertal onset; however, these associations persisted when BMI was included in the models.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>For African American girls, but not girls from other ethnic groups, neighborhood availability of recreational outlets was associated with onset of breast and pubic hair. Given the documented risk for early puberty among African American girls, these findings have important potential implications for public health interventions related to timing of puberty and related health outcomes in adolescence and adulthood.</p

Attribution of 2012 extreme climate events: does air-sea interaction matter?

In 2012, extreme anomalous climate conditions occurred around the globe. Large areas of North America experienced an anomalously hot summer, with large precipitation deficits inducing severe drought. Over Europe, the summer of 2012 was marked by strong precipitation anomalies with the UK experiencing its wettest summer since 1912 while Spain suffered severe drought. What caused these extreme climate conditions in various regions in 2012? This study compares attribution conclusions for 2012 climate anomalies relative to a baseline period (1964–1981) based on two sets of parallel experiments with different model configurations (with coupling to an ocean mixed layer model or with prescribed sea surface temperatures) to assess whether attribution conclusions concerning the climate anomalies in 2012 are sensitive to the representation of air-sea interaction. Modelling results indicate that attribution conclusions for large scale surface air temperature (SAT) changes in both boreal winter and summer are generally robust and not very sensitive to air-sea interaction. This is especially true over southern Europe, Eurasia, North America, South America, and North Africa. Some other responses also appear to be insensitive to air-sea interaction: for example, forced increases in precipitation over northern Europe and Sahel, and reduced precipitation over North America and the Amazon in boreal summer. However, the attribution of circulation and precipitation changes for some other regions exhibits a sensitivity to air-sea interaction. Results from the experiments including coupling to an ocean mixed layer model show a positive NAO-like circulation response in the Atlantic sector in boreal winter and weak changes in the East Asian summer monsoon and precipitation over East Asia. With prescribed sea surface temperatures, some different responses arise over these two regions. Comparison with observed changes indicates that the coupled simulations generally agree better with observations, demonstrating that attribution methods based on atmospheric general circulation models have limitations and may lead to erroneous attribution conclusions for regional anomalies in circulation, precipitation and surface air temperature