Usefulness of Bayesian networks in epidemiological studies

Introduction: Bayesian networks are a form of statistical modelling, which has been widely used in fields like clinical decision, systems biology, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and influenza research, analyses of complex disease systems, interactions between multiple diseases and, also, in diagnostic diseases. The present study aimed to show the usefulness of Bayesian networks (BNs) in epidemiological studies. Material and Methods: 3,993 subjects (men 1,758, women 2,235) belonging to the public productive sector from the Balearic Islands (Spain), which were active workers, constitute the data set. Results: A BN was built from a dataset composed of twelve relevant features in cardiovascular disease epidemiology. Furthermore, the structure and parameters were learnt with GeNIe 2.0 tool. Taking into account the main topological properties some features were optimized, obtaining a hypothesized scenario where the likelihoods of the different features were updated and the adequate conclusions were established. Conclusions: Bayesian networks allow us to obtain a hypothetical scenario where the probabilities of the different features are updated according to the evidence that is introduced. This fact makes Bayesian networks a very attractive tool.Introducción: Las redes Bayesianas son una forma de modelización estadística, las cuales han sido ampliamente utilizadas en campos como la decisión clínica, biología de sistemas, virus de inmunodeficiencia humana (VIH) e investigación en influenza, análisis de sistemas de enfermedades complejos, interacciones entre múltiples enfermedades y, también, en enfermedades de diagnóstico. Este estudio tiene como objetivo mostrar la utilidad de las redes Bayesianas en estudios epidemiológicos. Material y Métodos: 3,993 individuos (hombres 1,758, mujeres 2,235) pertenecientes al sector productivo público de las Islas Baleares (España), los cuales eran trabajadores activos, constituyen la base de datos. Resultados: Una red Bayesiana se ha obtenido a partir de una base de datos compuesta de doce características relevantes de la epidemiología de la enfermedad cardiovascular. Por otra parte, la estructura y los parámetros se han obtenido con la herramienta Genie 2.0. Teniendo en cuenta las principales propiedades topológicas algunas características fueron optimizadas. Conclusiones: Las redes Bayesianas permiten obtener un escenario hipotético donde las probabilidades de las diferentes características se van actualizando de acuerdo con la evidencia introducida. Este hecho hace de las redes Bayesianas una herramienta muy atractiva, además permite establecer diversas conclusiones

Determination of the psychological and sportive variables related to sports injuries: a bayesian analysis

This study analyzes the relationship between psychological and physical variables and sports injuries. A total of 297 athletes from 26 different sports participated in the study. Variables related to biomedical, psychological and sports injuries were collected. The analysis of data was performed through Bayesian networks. Our results suggest that a high probability of self-efficacy produce statistical dependence to high likelihood of sports injuries. This variable receives previous influences of biomedical variables (BMI) and psychological variables (stress). There are also consequential variables to the injury: coping strategies, and locus of controlEste estudio analiza la relación entre variables psicológicas y las lesiones deportivas. Participaron en el estudio un total de 297 deportistas, de 26 distintos deportes. Se recogieron variables biomédicas, deportivas, psicológicas y referentes a la lesión deportiva. El análisis de los datos se llevó a cabo por medio de redes Bayesianas. Nuestros resultados parecen indicar que una elevada probabilidad de autoeficacia produce dependencia estadística de más probabilidad de lesión deportiva. Esta variable recibe influencias antecedentes tanto de variables biomédicas (IMC) como de variables psicológicas (estrés). También existen variables consecuentes a la lesión: uso de estrategias de afrontamiento, y locus de controlEste estudo analisa a relação entre as variáveis psicológicas e as lesões esportivas. Participaram no estudo um total de 297 atletas de 26 deportos distintos. Foram recolhidas variáveis biomédicas, desportivas, psicológicos e referentes à lesão desportiva. A análise de dados foi realizada através de redes de Bayesianas. Os nossos resultados sugerem que uma alta probabilidade de auto-eficácia produz dependência de maior probabilidade de lesão desportiva. Esta variável recebe as influências antecedentes tanto de variáveis biomédicas (IMC) como de variáveis psicológicas (stress). Existem também variáveis consequentes à lesão: uso de estratégias de confronto e locus de controloEsta investigación ha podido ser realizada gracias a la ayuda del Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (actualmente Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad), referencia PSI2011-27000

Determinación de las variables psicológicas y deportivas relevantes a las lesiones deportivas : un análisis bayesiano

Este estudio analiza la relación entre variables psicológicas y las lesiones deportivas. Participaron en el estudio un total de 297 deportistas, de 26 distintos deportes. Se recogieron variables biomédicas, deportivas, psicológicas y referentes a la lesión deportiva. El análisis de los datos se llevó a cabo por medio de redes Bayesianas. Nuestros resultados parecen indicar que una elevada probabilidad de autoeficacia produce dependencia estadística de más probabilidad de lesión deportiva. Esta variable recibe influencias antecedentes tanto de variables biomédicas (IMC) como de variables psicológicas (estrés). También existen variables consecuentes a la lesión: uso de estrategias de afrontamiento, y locus de control.This study analyzes the relationship between psychological and physical variables and sports injuries. A total of 297 athletes from 26 different sports participated in the study. Variables related to biomedical, psychological and sports injuries were collected. The analysis of data was performed through Bayesian networks. Our results suggest that a high probability of self-efficacy produce statistical dependence to high likelihood of sports injuries. This variable receives previous influences of biomedical variables (BMI) and psychological variables (stress). There are also consequential variables to the injury: coping strategies, and locus of control.Este estudo analisa a relação entre as variáveis psicológicas e as lesões esportivas. Participaram no estudo um total de 297 atletas de 26 deportos distintos. Foram recolhidas variáveis biomédicas, desportivas, psicológicos e referentes à lesão desportiva. A análise de dados foi realizada através de redes de Bayesianas. Os nossos resultados sugerem que uma alta probabilidade de auto-eficácia produz dependência de maior probabilidade de lesão desportiva. Esta variável recebe as influências antecedentes tanto de variáveis biomédicas (IMC) como de variáveis psicológicas (stress). Existem também variáveis consequentes à lesão: uso de estratégias de confronto e locus de controlo

On the problem of relaxed indistinguishability operators aggregation

[EN] In this paper we focus our attention on exploring the aggregation of relaxed indistinguishability operators. Concretely we characterize, in terms of triangular triplets with respect to a t-norm, those functions that allow to merge a collection of relaxed indistinguishability operators into a single one.This research was funded by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness under Grants TIN2014-56381-REDT (LODISCO), TIN2016-81731-REDT (LODISCO II) and AEI/FEDER, UE funds.Calvo Sánchez, T.; Fuster Parra, P.; Valero, O. (2017). On the problem of relaxed indistinguishability operators aggregation. En Proceedings of the Workshop on Applied Topological Structures. Editorial Universitat Politècnica de València. 19-26. http://hdl.handle.net/10251/128050OCS192

A Bayesian Approach to Sport Injuries Likelihood: Does Player’s Self-Efficacy and Environmental Factors Plays the Main Role?

The psychological factors of sports injuries constitute a growing field of study, even from the point of view of the prediction of their occurrence. Most of them, however, do not take into account the likelihood of the injuries’ occurrence and the weight and role of the psychological variables on it. We conducted a study building up a Bayesian Network on a big sample of athletes, trying to assess these probabilistic links among several relevant psychological variables and the injuries’ occurrence. The sample was constituted by 297 athletes (239 males, 58 females) from a wide range of sports: track and field; judo; fencing; karate; boxing; swimming; kayaking; artistic rollerskating, and team sports as football, basketball, and handball (Mean age: 25.10 ±-3.87; range: 21–38 years). Several psychological variables, such as anxiety, social support, and self-efficacy were studied. Also, we recorded the history of injuries as well the body mass index and personal epidemiological data. The overall picture of the generated graph and Bayesian Network and its analysis – including the use of hypothetical data by means of several instantiations – includes the nuclear role of the Self-Efficacy regarding the injuries’ occurrence likelihood; the decreasing impact of the competitive anxiety previous to the injury; the probabilistic independence of the players’ risk behaviors, and the relevance of the environmental clues such the use of coping strategies and social support in order to build up a good level of Self-Efficacy after the occurrence of an injury. All these data are relevant when designing both preventive and recovery interventions from the multidisciplinary as well as from the psychological point of view

Docencia en inglés en el máster universitario "Biología y tecnología de la reproducción en mamíferos": la opinión de los alumnos

[SPA]En la actualidad, debido a la globalización mundial y a la apertura de fronteras, el uso de distintos idiomas, en especial el inglés, se abre paso en el día a día cada vez con más fuerza. La docencia en inglés es una forma de adaptación a la internacionalización del alumno y la entrada laboral a un mundo cada vez más competitivo. Sin embargo, es consabida la dificultad que representa para el alumno la impartición de las clases en un idioma diferente a la lengua materna, y más aún dependiendo del nivel de conocimiento del idioma que cada estudiante haya adquirido. En este trabajo se han evaluado las encuestas contestadas por los alumnos sobre cuestiones acerca de la impartición en inglés de algunas de las clases del Máster Universitario en Biología y Tecnología de la Reproducción en Mamíferos. En general los alumnos valoraron positivamente esta iniciativa, aunque reseñaron que el nivel propio de conocimiento del idioma quizá no era el adecuado.[ENG] Nowadays, due to globalization and the opening of new frontiers to students, the use of different languages, especially English, are important to learn. Having classes taught in English is a form of adaptation for the student to internationalization and a labor input to an increasingly competitive world. However, it is well-known how difficult is for the student to attend classes in a language other than their mother language, and even more depending on the level of knowledge that each student has acquired. In this work we have evaluated the questionnaires answered by students for the Master's Degree in Biology and Technology of Reproduction in Mammals about taking classes in English. In general, students appreciated this initiative, but pointed out that their English level was not the appropriate.Campus Mare Nostrum, Universidad Politécnica de Cartagena, Universidad de Murcia, Región de Murci

Role of age and comorbidities in mortality of patients with infective endocarditis

[Purpose]: The aim of this study was to analyse the characteristics of patients with IE in three groups of age and to assess the ability of age and the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) to predict mortality. [Methods]: Prospective cohort study of all patients with IE included in the GAMES Spanish database between 2008 and 2015.Patients were stratified into three age groups:<65 years,65 to 80 years,and ≥ 80 years.The area under the receiver-operating characteristic (AUROC) curve was calculated to quantify the diagnostic accuracy of the CCI to predict mortality risk. [Results]: A total of 3120 patients with IE (1327 < 65 years;1291 65-80 years;502 ≥ 80 years) were enrolled.Fever and heart failure were the most common presentations of IE, with no differences among age groups.Patients ≥80 years who underwent surgery were significantly lower compared with other age groups (14.3%,65 years; 20.5%,65-79 years; 31.3%,≥80 years). In-hospital mortality was lower in the <65-year group (20.3%,<65 years;30.1%,65-79 years;34.7%,≥80 years;p < 0.001) as well as 1-year mortality (3.2%, <65 years; 5.5%, 65-80 years;7.6%,≥80 years; p = 0.003).Independent predictors of mortality were age ≥ 80 years (hazard ratio [HR]:2.78;95% confidence interval [CI]:2.32–3.34), CCI ≥ 3 (HR:1.62; 95% CI:1.39–1.88),and non-performed surgery (HR:1.64;95% CI:11.16–1.58).When the three age groups were compared,the AUROC curve for CCI was significantly larger for patients aged <65 years(p < 0.001) for both in-hospital and 1-year mortality. [Conclusion]: There were no differences in the clinical presentation of IE between the groups. Age ≥ 80 years, high comorbidity (measured by CCI),and non-performance of surgery were independent predictors of mortality in patients with IE.CCI could help to identify those patients with IE and surgical indication who present a lower risk of in-hospital and 1-year mortality after surgery, especially in the <65-year group

The first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Spain was associated with early introductions and fast spread of a dominating genetic variant

SeqCOVID-Spain consortium: Álvaro Chiner-Oms, Irving Cancino-Muñoz, Mariana G. López, Manuela Torres-Puente, Inmaculada Gómez-Navarro, Santiago Jiménez-Serrano, Jordi Pérez-Tur, Darío García de Viedma, Laura Pérez-Lago, Marta Herranz, Jon Sicilia, Pilar Catalán-Alonso, Julia Suárez González, Patricia Muñoz, Mireia Coscolla, Paula Ruiz-Rodríguez, Fernando González-Candelas, Iñaki Comas, Lidia Ruiz-Roldán, María Alma Bracho, Neris García-González, Llúcia Martínez Priego, Inmaculada Galán-Vendrell, Paula Ruiz-Hueso, Griselda De Marco, María Loreto Ferrús-Abad, Sandra Carbó-Ramírez, Giuseppe D’Auria, Galo Adrian Goig, Juan Alberola, Jose Miguel Nogueira, Juan José Camarena, David Navarro, Eliseo Albert, Ignacio Torres, Maitane Aranzamendi Zaldumbide, Óscar Martínez Expósito, Nerea Antona Urieta, María de Toro, María Pilar Bea-Escudero, Jose Antonio Boga, Cristian Castelló-Abietar, Susana Rojo-Alba, Marta Elena Álvarez-Argüelles, Santiago Melón, Elisa Martró, Antoni E. Bordoy, Anna Not, Adrián Antuori, Anabel Fernández-Navarro, Andrés Canut-Blasco, Silvia Hernáez Crespo, Maria Luz Cordón Rodríguez, Maria Concepción Lecaroz Agara, Carmen Gómez-González, Amaia Aguirre-Quiñonero, José Israel López-Mirones, Marina Fernández-Torres, Maria Rosario Almela-Ferrer, Ana Carvajal, Juan Miguel Fregeneda-Grandes, Héctor Argüello, Gustavo Cilla Eguiluz, Milagrosa Montes Ros, Luis Piñeiro Vázquez, Ane Sorarrain, José María Marimón, José J. Costa-Alcalde, Rocío Trastoy, Gema Barbeito Castiñeiras, Amparo Coira, María Luisa Pérez del Molino, Antonio Aguilera, Begoña Palop-Borrás, Inmaculada de Toro Peinado, Maria Concepción Mediavilla Gradolph, Mercedes Pérez-Ruiz, Mirian Fernández-Alonso, Jose Luis del Pozo, Oscar González-Recio, Mónica Gutiérrez-Rivas, Jovita Fernández-Pinero, Miguel Ángel Jiménez Clavero, Begoña Fuster Escrivá, Concepción Gimeno Cardona, María Dolores Ocete Mochón, Rafael Medina-Gonzalez, José Antonio Lepe, Verónica González Galán, Ángel Rodríguez-Villodres, Nieves Gonzalo Jiménez, Jordi Reina, Carla López-Causapé, Maria Dolores Gómez-Ruiz, Eva M. Gonzalez-Barbera, José Luis López-Hontangas, Vicente Martín, Antonio J. Molina, Tania Fernandez-Villa, Ana Milagro Beamonte, Nieves Felisa Martínez-Cameo, Yolanda Gracia-Grataloup, Rosario Moreno-Muñoz, Maria Dolores Tirado Balaguer, José María Navarro-Marí, Irene Pedrosa-Corral, Sara Sanbonmatsu-Gámez, Antonio Oliver, Mónica Parra Grande, Bárbara Gómez Alonso, Francisco José Arjona Zaragozí, Maria Carmen Pérez González, Francisco Javier Chamizo López, Ana Bordes-Benítez, Núria Rabella, Ferran Navarro, Elisenda Miró, Antonio Rezusta, Alexander Tristancho, Encarnación Simarro Córdoba, Julia Lozano-Serra, Lorena Robles Fonseca, Álex Soriano, Francisco Javier Roig Sena, Hermelinda Vanaclocha Luna, Isabel Sanmartín, Daniel García-Souto, Ana Pequeño-Valtierra, Jose M. C. Tubio, Javier Temes, Jorge Rodríguez-Castro, Martín Santamarina García, Manuel Rodríguez-Iglesias, Fátima Galán-Sanchez, Salud Rodríguez-Pallares, José Manuel Azcona-Gutiérrez, Miriam Blasco-Alberdi, Alfredo Mayor, Alberto L. García-Basteiro, Gemma Moncunill, Carlota Dobaño, Pau Cisteró, Oriol Mitjà, Camila González-Beiras, Martí Vall-Mayans, Marc Corbacho-Monné, Andrea Alemany, Cristina Muñoz-Cuevas, Guadalupe Rodríguez-Rodríguez, Rafael Benito, Sonia Algarate, Jessica Bueno, Andrea Vergara-Gómez, Miguel J. Martínez, Jordi Vila, Elisa Rubio, Aida Peiró-Mestres, Jessica Navero-Castillejos, David Posada, Diana Valverde, Nuria Estévez, Iria Fernández-Silva, Loretta de Chiara, Pilar Gallego-García, Nair Varela, Ulises Gómez-Pinedo, Mónica Gozalo-Margüello, Maria Eliecer Cano García, José Manuel Méndez-Legaza, Jesus Rodríguez-Lozano, María Siller, Daniel Pablo-Marcos, Maria Montserrat Ruiz-García, Antonio Galiana, Judith Sánchez-Almendro, Maria Isabel Gascón Ros, Cristina Juana Torregrosa-Hetland, Eva María Pastor Boix, Paloma Cascales Ramos, Pedro Luis Garcinuño Enríquez, Salvador Raga Borja, Julia González Cantó, Olalla Martínez Macias, Adolfo de Salazar, Laura Viñuela González, Natalia Chueca, Federico García, Cristina Gómez-Camarasa, Amparo Farga Martí, Rocío Falcón, Victoria Domínguez-Márquez, Anna M. Planas, Israel Fernández-Cádenas, Maria Ángeles Marcos, Carmen Ezpeleta, Ana Navascués, Ana Miqueleiz Zapatero, Manuel Segovia, Antonio Moreno-Docón, Esther Viedma, Raúl Recio Martínez, Irene Muñoz-Gallego, Sara Gonzalez-Bodi, Maria Dolores Folgueira, Jesús Mingorance, Elias Dahdouh, Fernando Lázaro-Perona, María Rodríguez-Tejedor, María Pilar Romero-Gómez, Julio García-Rodríguez, Juan Carlos Galán, Mario Rodríguez-Dominguez, Laura Martínez-García, Melanie Abreu Di Berardino, Manuel Ponce-Alonso, Jose Maria González-Alba, Ivan Sanz-Muñoz, Diana Pérez San José, Maria Gil Fortuño, Juan B. Bellido-Blasco, Alberto Yagüe Muñoz, Noelia Hernández Pérez, Helena Buj Jordá, Óscar Pérez Olaso, Alejandro González Praetorius, Nora Mariela Martínez Ramírez, Aida Ramírez Marinero, Eduardo Padilla León, Alba Vilas Basil, Mireia Canal Aranda, Albert Bernet Sánchez, Alba Bellés Bellés, Eric López González, Iván Prats Sánchez, Mercè García-González, Miguel José Martínez-Lirola, Manuel Ángel Rodríguez Maresca, Maria Teresa Cabezas Fernández, María Eugenia Carrillo Gil, Maria Paz Ventero Martín, Carmen Molina Pardines, Nieves Orta Mira, María Navarro Cots, Inmaculada Vidal Catalá, Isabel García Nava, Soledad Illescas Fernández-Bermejo, José Martínez-Alarcón, Marta Torres-Narbona, Cristina Colmenarejo, Lidia García-Agudo, Jorge A. Pérez García, Martín Yago López, María Ángeles Goberna Bravo, Victoria Simón García, Gonzalo Llop Furquet, Agustín Iranzo Tatay, Sandra Moreno-Marro, Noelia Lozano Rodríguez, Amparo Broseta Tamarit, Juan José Badiola Díez, Amparo Martínez-Ramírez, Ana Dopazo, Sergio Callejas, Alberto Benguría, Begoña Aguado, Antonio Alcamí, Marta Bermejo Bermejo, Ricardo Ramos-Ruíz, Víctor Manuel Fernández Soria, Fernando Simón Soria & Mercedes Roig CardellsThe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has affected the world radically since 2020. Spain was one of the European countries with the highest incidence during the first wave. As a part of a consortium to monitor and study the evolution of the epidemic, we sequenced 2,170 samples, diagnosed mostly before lockdown measures. Here, we identified at least 500 introductions from multiple international sources and documented the early rise of two dominant Spanish epidemic clades (SECs), probably amplified by superspreading events. Both SECs were related closely to the initial Asian variants of SARS-CoV-2 and spread widely across Spain. We inferred a substantial reduction in the effective reproductive number of both SECs due to public-health interventions (Re < 1), also reflected in the replacement of SECs by a new variant over the summer of 2020. In summary, we reveal a notable difference in the initial genetic makeup of SARS-CoV-2 in Spain compared with other European countries and show evidence to support the effectiveness of lockdown measures in controlling virus spread, even for the most successful genetic variants.This work was mainly funded by the Instituto de Salud Carlos III project COV20/00140, with additional funding by Spanish National Research Council project CSIC-COV19-021, Ministerio de Ciencia project PID2019-104477RB-100, ERC StG 638553 and ERC CoG 101001038 to I.C., and BFU2017-89594R to F.G.C. M.C. is supported by Ramón y Cajal program from Ministerio de Ciencia and grants RTI2018-094399-A-I00 and Generalitat Valenciana (Regional Government) project SEJI/2019/011. We gratefully acknowledge Hospital Universitari Vall d’Hebron, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, IrsiCaixa AIDS Research Lab and all the international researchers and institutions that submitted sequenced SARS-CoV-2 genomes to the GISAID’s EpiCov Database (Supplementary Table 1), as an important part of our analyses has been made possible by the sharing of their work. We also thank Unidad de Bioinformática y Estadística, Centro de Investigación Príncipe Felipe, for allowing us to use the Computer Cluster to perform some of the bioinformatic analysis.Peer reviewe

Pasados y presente. Estudios para el profesor Ricardo García Cárcel

Ricardo García Cárcel (Requena, 1948) estudió Historia en Valencia bajo el magisterio de Joan Reglà, con quien formó parte del primer profesorado de historia moderna en la Universidad Autónoma de Barcelona. En esta universidad, desde hace prácticamente cincuenta años, ha desarrollado una extraordinaria labor docente y de investigación marcada por un sagaz instinto histórico, que le ha convertido en pionero de casi todo lo que ha estudiado: las Germanías, la historia de la Cataluña moderna, la Inquisición, las culturas del Siglo de Oro, la Leyenda Negra, Felipe II, Felipe V, Austrias y Borbones, la guerra de la Independencia, la historia cultural, los mitos de la historia de España... Muy pocos tienen su capacidad para reflexionar, ordenar, analizar, conceptualizar y proponer una visión amplia y llena de matices sobre el pasado y las interpretaciones historiográficas. A su laboriosidad inimitable se añade una dedicación sin límites en el asesoramiento de alumnos e investigadores e impulsando revistas, dosieres, seminarios o publicaciones colectivas. Una mínima correspondencia a su generosidad lo constituye este volumen a manera de ineludible agradecimiento

Ranking Features on Psychological Dynamics of Cooperative Team Work through Bayesian Networks

The aim of this study is to rank some features that characterize the psychological dynamics of cooperative team work in order to determine priorities for interventions and formation: leading positive feedback, cooperative manager and collaborative manager features. From a dataset of 20 cooperative sport teams (403 soccer players), the characteristics of the prototypical sports teams are studied using an average Bayesian network (BN) and two special types of BNs, the Bayesian classifiers: naive Bayes (NB) and tree augmented naive Bayes (TAN). BNs are selected as they are able to produce probability estimates rather than predictions. BN results show that the antecessors (the “top” features ranked) are the team members’ expectations and their attraction to the social aspects of the task. The main node is formed by the cooperative behaviors, the consequences ranked at the BN bottom (ratified by the TAN trees and the instantiations made), the roles assigned to the members and their survival inside the same team. These results should help managers to determine contents and priorities when they have to face team-building actions