Strategically Equivalent Contests

Using a two-player Tullock-type contest, we show that intuitively and structurally different contests can be strategically equivalent. Strategically equivalent contests generate the same best response functions and, as a result, the same equilibrium efforts. However, strategically equivalent contests may yield different equilibrium payoffs. We propose a simple two-step procedure to identify strategically equivalent contests. Using this procedure, we identify contests that are strategically equivalent to the original Tullock contest, and provide new examples of strategically equivalent contests. Finally, we discuss possible contest design applications and avenues for future theoretical and empirical research

Arterial Tortuosity: An Imaging Biomarker of Childhood Stroke Pathogenesis?

Background and purposeArteriopathy is the leading cause of childhood arterial ischemic stroke. Mechanisms are poorly understood but may include inherent abnormalities of arterial structure. Extracranial dissection is associated with connective tissue disorders in adult stroke. Focal cerebral arteriopathy is a common syndrome where pathophysiology is unknown but may include intracranial dissection or transient cerebral arteriopathy. We aimed to quantify cerebral arterial tortuosity in childhood arterial ischemic stroke, hypothesizing increased tortuosity in dissection.MethodsChildren (1 month to 18 years) with arterial ischemic stroke were recruited within the Vascular Effects of Infection in Pediatric Stroke (VIPS) study with controls from the Calgary Pediatric Stroke Program. Objective, multi-investigator review defined diagnostic categories. A validated imaging software method calculated the mean arterial tortuosity of the major cerebral arteries using 3-dimensional time-of-flight magnetic resonance angiographic source images. Tortuosity of unaffected vessels was compared between children with dissection, transient cerebral arteriopathy, meningitis, moyamoya, cardioembolic strokes, and controls (ANOVA and post hoc Tukey). Trauma-related versus spontaneous dissection was compared (Student t test).ResultsOne hundred fifteen children were studied (median, 6.8 years; 43% women). Age and sex were similar across groups. Tortuosity means and variances were consistent with validation studies. Tortuosity in controls (1.346±0.074; n=15) was comparable with moyamoya (1.324±0.038; n=15; P=0.998), meningitis (1.348±0.052; n=11; P=0.989), and cardioembolic (1.379±0.056; n=27; P=0.190) cases. Tortuosity was higher in both extracranial dissection (1.404±0.084; n=22; P=0.021) and transient cerebral arteriopathy (1.390±0.040; n=27; P=0.001) children. Tortuosity was not different between traumatic versus spontaneous dissections (P=0.70).ConclusionsIn children with dissection and transient cerebral arteriopathy, cerebral arteries demonstrate increased tortuosity. Quantified arterial tortuosity may represent a clinically relevant imaging biomarker of vascular biology in pediatric stroke

Breast cancer patients' clinical outcome measures are associated with Src kinase family member expression

<p>BACKGROUND: This study determined mRNA expression levels for Src kinase family (SFK) members in breast tissue specimens and assessed protein expression levels of prominent SFK members in invasive breast cancer to establish associations with clinical outcome. Ki67 was investigated to determine association between SFK members and proliferation.</p> <p>METHODS: The mRNA expression levels were assessed for eight SFK members by quantitative real-time PCR. Immunohistochemistry was performed for c-Src, Lyn, Lck and Ki67.</p> <p>RESULTS: mRNA expression was quantified in all tissue samples. SRC and LYN were the most highly expressed in malignant tissue. LCK was more highly expressed in oestrogen receptor (ER)-negative, compared with ER-positive tumours. High cytoplasmic Src kinase protein expression was significantly associated with decreased disease-specific survival. Lyn was not associated with survival at any cellular location. High membrane Lck expression was significantly associated with improved survival. Ki67 expression correlated with tumour grade and nuclear c-Src, but was not associated with survival.</p> <p>CONCLUSIONS: All eight SFK members were expressed in different breast tissues. Src kinase was highest expressed in breast cancer and had a negative impact on disease-specific survival. Membrane expression of Lck was associated with improved clinical outcome. High expression of Src kinase correlated with high proliferation.</p&gt

Genome-wide association of major depression: description of samples for the GAIN Major Depressive Disorder Study: NTR and NESDA biobank projects.

To identify the genomic regions that confer risk and protection for major depressive disorder (MDD) in humans, large-scale studies are needed. Such studies should collect multiple phenotypes, DNA, and ideally, biological material that allows gene expression analysis, transcriptomic, proteomic, and metabolomic studies. In this paper, we briefly review linkage studies of MDD and then describe the large-scale nationwide biological sample collection in Dutch twin families from the Netherlands Twin Register (NTR) and in participants in the Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety (NESDA). Within these studies, 1862 participants with a diagnosis of MDD and 1857 controls at low liability for MDD have been selected for genome-wide genotyping by the US Foundation for the National Institutes of Health Genetic Association Information Network. Stage 1 genome-wide association results are scheduled to be accessible before the end of 2007. Genome-wide association results are open-access and can be viewed at the dbGAP web portal (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov). Approved users can download the genotype and phenotype data, which have been made available as of 9 October 2007

X-Shooting ULLYSES: Massive stars at low metallicity: I. Project description

Observations of individual massive stars, super-luminous supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, and gravitational wave events involving spectacular black hole mergers indicate that the low-metallicity Universe is fundamentally different from our own Galaxy. Many transient phenomena will remain enigmatic until we achieve a firm understanding of the physics and evolution of massive stars at low metallicity (Z). The Hubble Space Telescope has devoted 500 orbits to observing ∼250 massive stars at low Z in the ultraviolet (UV) with the COS and STIS spectrographs under the ULLYSES programme. The complementary X-Shooting ULLYSES (XShootU) project provides an enhanced legacy value with high-quality optical and near-infrared spectra obtained with the wide-wavelength coverage X-shooter spectrograph at ESOa's Very Large Telescope. We present an overview of the XShootU project, showing that combining ULLYSES UV and XShootU optical spectra is critical for the uniform determination of stellar parameters such as effective temperature, surface gravity, luminosity, and abundances, as well as wind properties such as mass-loss rates as a function of Z. As uncertainties in stellar and wind parameters percolate into many adjacent areas of astrophysics, the data and modelling of the XShootU project is expected to be a game changer for our physical understanding of massive stars at low Z. To be able to confidently interpret James Webb Space Telescope spectra of the first stellar generations, the individual spectra of low-Z stars need to be understood, which is exactly where XShootU can deliver

Induction of cell cycle changes and modulation of apoptogenic/anti-apoptotic and extracellular signaling regulatory protein expression by water extracts of I'm-Yunity™ (PSP)

BACKGROUND: I'm-Yunity™ (PSP) is a mushroom extract derived from deep-layer cultivated mycelia of the patented Cov-1 strain of Coriolus versicolor (CV), which contains as its main bioactive ingredient a family of polysaccharo-peptide with heterogeneous charge properties and molecular sizes. I'm-Yunity™ (PSP) is used as a dietary supplement by cancer patients and by individuals diagnosed with various chronic diseases. Laboratory studies have shown that I'm-Yunity™ (PSP) enhances immune functions and also modulates cellular responses to external challenges. Recently, I'm-Yunity™ (PSP) was also reported to exert potent anti-tumorigenic effects, evident by suppression of cell proliferation and induction of apoptosis in malignant cells. We investigate the mechanisms by which I'm-Yunity™ (PSP) elicits these effects. METHODS: Human leukemia HL-60 and U-937 cells were incubated with increasing doses of aqueous extracts of I'm-Yunity™ (PSP). Control and treated cells were harvested at various times and analyzed for changes in: (1) cell proliferation and viability, (2) cell cycle phase transition, (3) induction of apoptosis, (4) expression of cell cycle, apoptogenic/anti-apoptotic, and extracellular regulatory proteins. RESULTS: Aqueous extracts of I'm-Yunity™ (PSP) inhibited cell proliferation and induced apoptosis in HL-60 and U-937 cells, accompanied by a cell type-dependent disruption of the G(1)/S and G(2)/M phases of cell cycle progression. A more pronounced growth suppression was observed in treated HL-60 cells, which was correlated with time- and dose-dependent down regulation of the retinoblastoma protein Rb, diminution in the expression of anti-apoptotic proteins bcl-2 and survivin, increase in apoptogenic proteins bax and cytochrome c, and cleavage of poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase (PARP) from its native 112-kDa form to the 89-kDa truncated product. Moreover, I'm-Yunity™ (PSP)-treated HL-60 cells also showed a substantial decrease in p65 and to a lesser degree p50 forms of transcription factor NF-κB, which was accompanied by a reduction in the expression of cyclooxygenase 2 (COX2). I'm-Yunity™ (PSP) also elicited an increase in STAT1 (signal transducer and activator of transcription) and correspondingly, decrease in the expression of activated form of ERK (extracellular signal-regulated kinase). CONCLUSION: Aqueous extracts of I'm-Yunity™ (PSP) induces cell cycle arrest and alterations in the expression of apoptogenic/anti-apoptotic and extracellular signaling regulatory proteins in human leukemia cells, the net result being suppression of proliferation and increase in apoptosis. These findings may contribute to the reported clinical and overall health effects of I'm-Yunity™ (PSP)

Risk of adverse outcomes in patients with underlying respiratory conditions admitted to hospital with COVID-19:a national, multicentre prospective cohort study using the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK

Background Studies of patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 have found varying mortality outcomes associated with underlying respiratory conditions and inhaled corticosteroid use. Using data from a national, multicentre, prospective cohort, we aimed to characterise people with COVID-19 admitted to hospital with underlying respiratory disease, assess the level of care received, measure in-hospital mortality, and examine the effect of inhaled corticosteroid use. Methods We analysed data from the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK (CCP-UK) study. All patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 across England, Scotland, and Wales between Jan 17 and Aug 3, 2020, were eligible for inclusion in this analysis. Patients with asthma, chronic pulmonary disease, or both, were identified and stratified by age (<16 years, 16–49 years, and ≥50 years). In-hospital mortality was measured by use of multilevel Cox proportional hazards, adjusting for demographics, comorbidities, and medications (inhaled corticosteroids, short-acting β-agonists [SABAs], and long-acting β-agonists [LABAs]). Patients with asthma who were taking an inhaled corticosteroid plus LABA plus another maintenance asthma medication were considered to have severe asthma. Findings 75 463 patients from 258 participating health-care facilities were included in this analysis: 860 patients younger than 16 years (74 [8·6%] with asthma), 8950 patients aged 16–49 years (1867 [20·9%] with asthma), and 65 653 patients aged 50 years and older (5918 [9·0%] with asthma, 10 266 [15·6%] with chronic pulmonary disease, and 2071 [3·2%] with both asthma and chronic pulmonary disease). Patients with asthma were significantly more likely than those without asthma to receive critical care (patients aged 16–49 years: adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1·20 [95% CI 1·05–1·37]; p=0·0080; patients aged ≥50 years: adjusted OR 1·17 [1·08–1·27]; p<0·0001), and patients aged 50 years and older with chronic pulmonary disease (with or without asthma) were significantly less likely than those without a respiratory condition to receive critical care (adjusted OR 0·66 [0·60–0·72] for those without asthma and 0·74 [0·62–0·87] for those with asthma; p<0·0001 for both). In patients aged 16–49 years, only those with severe asthma had a significant increase in mortality compared to those with no asthma (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1·17 [95% CI 0·73–1·86] for those on no asthma therapy, 0·99 [0·61–1·58] for those on SABAs only, 0·94 [0·62–1·43] for those on inhaled corticosteroids only, 1·02 [0·67–1·54] for those on inhaled corticosteroids plus LABAs, and 1·96 [1·25–3·08] for those with severe asthma). Among patients aged 50 years and older, those with chronic pulmonary disease had a significantly increased mortality risk, regardless of inhaled corticosteroid use, compared to patients without an underlying respiratory condition (adjusted HR 1·16 [95% CI 1·12–1·22] for those not on inhaled corticosteroids, and 1·10 [1·04–1·16] for those on inhaled corticosteroids; p<0·0001). Patients aged 50 years and older with severe asthma also had an increased mortality risk compared to those not on asthma therapy (adjusted HR 1·24 [95% CI 1·04–1·49]). In patients aged 50 years and older, inhaled corticosteroid use within 2 weeks of hospital admission was associated with decreased mortality in those with asthma, compared to those without an underlying respiratory condition (adjusted HR 0·86 [95% CI 0·80−0·92]). Interpretation Underlying respiratory conditions are common in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19. Regardless of the severity of symptoms at admission and comorbidities, patients with asthma were more likely, and those with chronic pulmonary disease less likely, to receive critical care than patients without an underlying respiratory condition. In patients aged 16 years and older, severe asthma was associated with increased mortality compared to non-severe asthma. In patients aged 50 years and older, inhaled corticosteroid use in those with asthma was associated with lower mortality than in patients without an underlying respiratory condition; patients with chronic pulmonary disease had significantly increased mortality compared to those with no underlying respiratory condition, regardless of inhaled corticosteroid use. Our results suggest that the use of inhaled corticosteroids, within 2 weeks of admission, improves survival for patients aged 50 years and older with asthma, but not for those with chronic pulmonary disease

Development and validation of the ISARIC 4C Deterioration model for adults hospitalised with COVID-19: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Prognostic models to predict the risk of clinical deterioration in acute COVID-19 cases are urgently required to inform clinical management decisions. METHODS: We developed and validated a multivariable logistic regression model for in-hospital clinical deterioration (defined as any requirement of ventilatory support or critical care, or death) among consecutively hospitalised adults with highly suspected or confirmed COVID-19 who were prospectively recruited to the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium (ISARIC4C) study across 260 hospitals in England, Scotland, and Wales. Candidate predictors that were specified a priori were considered for inclusion in the model on the basis of previous prognostic scores and emerging literature describing routinely measured biomarkers associated with COVID-19 prognosis. We used internal-external cross-validation to evaluate discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility across eight National Health Service (NHS) regions in the development cohort. We further validated the final model in held-out data from an additional NHS region (London). FINDINGS: 74 944 participants (recruited between Feb 6 and Aug 26, 2020) were included, of whom 31 924 (43·2%) of 73 948 with available outcomes met the composite clinical deterioration outcome. In internal-external cross-validation in the development cohort of 66 705 participants, the selected model (comprising 11 predictors routinely measured at the point of hospital admission) showed consistent discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility across all eight NHS regions. In held-out data from London (n=8239), the model showed a similarly consistent performance (C-statistic 0·77 [95% CI 0·76 to 0·78]; calibration-in-the-large 0·00 [-0·05 to 0·05]); calibration slope 0·96 [0·91 to 1·01]), and greater net benefit than any other reproducible prognostic model. INTERPRETATION: The 4C Deterioration model has strong potential for clinical utility and generalisability to predict clinical deterioration and inform decision making among adults hospitalised with COVID-19. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), UK Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, Department for International Development, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, EU Platform for European Preparedness Against (Re-)emerging Epidemics, NIHR Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections at University of Liverpool, NIHR HPRU in Respiratory Infections at Imperial College London

Importance of patient bed pathways and length of stay differences in predicting COVID-19 hospital bed occupancy in England.

Background: Predicting bed occupancy for hospitalised patients with COVID-19 requires understanding of length of stay (LoS) in particular bed types. LoS can vary depending on the patient’s “bed pathway” - the sequence of transfers of individual patients between bed types during a hospital stay. In this study, we characterise these pathways, and their impact on predicted hospital bed occupancy. Methods: We obtained data from University College Hospital (UCH) and the ISARIC4C COVID-19 Clinical Information Network (CO-CIN) on hospitalised patients with COVID-19 who required care in general ward or critical care (CC) beds to determine possible bed pathways and LoS. We developed a discrete-time model to examine the implications of using either bed pathways or only average LoS by bed type to forecast bed occupancy. We compared model-predicted bed occupancy to publicly available bed occupancy data on COVID-19 in England between March and August 2020. Results: In both the UCH and CO-CIN datasets, 82% of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 only received care in general ward beds. We identified four other bed pathways, present in both datasets: “Ward, CC, Ward”, “Ward, CC”, “CC” and “CC, Ward”. Mean LoS varied by bed type, pathway, and dataset, between 1.78 and 13.53 days. For UCH, we found that using bed pathways improved the accuracy of bed occupancy predictions, while only using an average LoS for each bed type underestimated true bed occupancy. However, using the CO-CIN LoS dataset we were not able to replicate past data on bed occupancy in England, suggesting regional LoS heterogeneities. Conclusions: We identified five bed pathways, with substantial variation in LoS by bed type, pathway, and geography. This might be caused by local differences in patient characteristics, clinical care strategies, or resource availability, and suggests that national LoS averages may not be appropriate for local forecasts of bed occupancy for COVID-19. Trial registration: The ISARIC WHO CCP-UK study ISRCTN66726260 was retrospectively registered on 21/04/2020 and designated an Urgent Public Health Research Study by NIHR.</p