Importance of patient bed pathways and length of stay differences in predicting COVID-19 hospital bed occupancy in England

BACKGROUND: Predicting bed occupancy for hospitalised patients with COVID-19 requires understanding of length of stay (LoS) in particular bed types. LoS can vary depending on the patient's "bed pathway" - the sequence of transfers of individual patients between bed types during a hospital stay. In this study, we characterise these pathways, and their impact on predicted hospital bed occupancy. METHODS: We obtained data from University College Hospital (UCH) and the ISARIC4C COVID-19 Clinical Information Network (CO-CIN) on hospitalised patients with COVID-19 who required care in general ward or critical care (CC) beds to determine possible bed pathways and LoS. We developed a discrete-time model to examine the implications of using either bed pathways or only average LoS by bed type to forecast bed occupancy. We compared model-predicted bed occupancy to publicly available bed occupancy data on COVID-19 in England between March and August 2020. RESULTS: In both the UCH and CO-CIN datasets, 82% of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 only received care in general ward beds. We identified four other bed pathways, present in both datasets: "Ward, CC, Ward", "Ward, CC", "CC" and "CC, Ward". Mean LoS varied by bed type, pathway, and dataset, between 1.78 and 13.53 days. For UCH, we found that using bed pathways improved the accuracy of bed occupancy predictions, while only using an average LoS for each bed type underestimated true bed occupancy. However, using the CO-CIN LoS dataset we were not able to replicate past data on bed occupancy in England, suggesting regional LoS heterogeneities. CONCLUSIONS: We identified five bed pathways, with substantial variation in LoS by bed type, pathway, and geography. This might be caused by local differences in patient characteristics, clinical care strategies, or resource availability, and suggests that national LoS averages may not be appropriate for local forecasts of bed occupancy for COVID-19. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The ISARIC WHO CCP-UK study ISRCTN66726260 was retrospectively registered on 21/04/2020 and designated an Urgent Public Health Research Study by NIHR

Autoregression as a means of assessing the strength of seasonality in a time series

BACKGROUND: The study of the seasonal variation of disease is receiving increasing attention from health researchers. Available statistical tests for seasonality typically indicate the presence or absence of statistically significant seasonality but do not provide a meaningful measure of its strength. METHODS: We propose the coefficient of determination of the autoregressive regression model fitted to the data ([Image: see text]) as a measure for quantifying the strength of the seasonality. The performance of the proposed statistic is assessed through a simulation study and using two data sets known to demonstrate statistically significant seasonality: atrial fibrillation and asthma hospitalizations in Ontario, Canada. RESULTS: The simulation results showed the power of the [Image: see text] in adequately quantifying the strength of the seasonality of the simulated observations for all models. In the atrial fibrillation and asthma datasets, while the statistical tests such as Bartlett's Kolmogorov-Smirnov (BKS) and Fisher's Kappa support statistical evidence of seasonality for both, the [Image: see text] quantifies the strength of that seasonality. Corroborating the visual evidence that asthma is more conspicuously seasonal than atrial fibrillation, the calculated [Image: see text] for atrial fibrillation indicates a weak to moderate seasonality ([Image: see text] = 0.44, 0.28 and 0.45 for both genders, males and females respectively), whereas for asthma, it indicates a strong seasonality ([Image: see text] = 0.82, 0.78 and 0.82 for both genders, male and female respectively). CONCLUSIONS: For the purposes of health services research, evidence of the statistical presence of seasonality is insufficient to determine the etiologic, clinical and policy relevance of findings. Measurement of the strength of the seasonal effect, as can be determined using the [Image: see text] technique, is also important in order to provide a robust sense of seasonality

Lack of effect of lowering LDL cholesterol on cancer: meta-analysis of individual data from 175,000 people in 27 randomised trials of statin therapy

<p>Background: Statin therapy reduces the risk of occlusive vascular events, but uncertainty remains about potential effects on cancer. We sought to provide a detailed assessment of any effects on cancer of lowering LDL cholesterol (LDL-C) with a statin using individual patient records from 175,000 patients in 27 large-scale statin trials.</p> <p>Methods and Findings: Individual records of 134,537 participants in 22 randomised trials of statin versus control (median duration 4.8 years) and 39,612 participants in 5 trials of more intensive versus less intensive statin therapy (median duration 5.1 years) were obtained. Reducing LDL-C with a statin for about 5 years had no effect on newly diagnosed cancer or on death from such cancers in either the trials of statin versus control (cancer incidence: 3755 [1.4% per year [py]] versus 3738 [1.4% py], RR 1.00 [95% CI 0.96-1.05]; cancer mortality: 1365 [0.5% py] versus 1358 [0.5% py], RR 1.00 [95% CI 0.93–1.08]) or in the trials of more versus less statin (cancer incidence: 1466 [1.6% py] vs 1472 [1.6% py], RR 1.00 [95% CI 0.93–1.07]; cancer mortality: 447 [0.5% py] versus 481 [0.5% py], RR 0.93 [95% CI 0.82–1.06]). Moreover, there was no evidence of any effect of reducing LDL-C with statin therapy on cancer incidence or mortality at any of 23 individual categories of sites, with increasing years of treatment, for any individual statin, or in any given subgroup. In particular, among individuals with low baseline LDL-C (<2 mmol/L), there was no evidence that further LDL-C reduction (from about 1.7 to 1.3 mmol/L) increased cancer risk (381 [1.6% py] versus 408 [1.7% py]; RR 0.92 [99% CI 0.76–1.10]).</p> <p>Conclusions: In 27 randomised trials, a median of five years of statin therapy had no effect on the incidence of, or mortality from, any type of cancer (or the aggregate of all cancer).</p&gt

Explosive Nucleosynthesis: What we learned and what we still do not understand

This review touches on historical aspects, going back to the early days of nuclear astrophysics, initiated by B$^2$FH and Cameron, discusses (i) the required nuclear input from reaction rates and decay properties up to the nuclear equation of state, continues (ii) with the tools to perform nucleosynthesis calculations and (iii) early parametrized nucleosynthesis studies, before (iv) reliable stellar models became available for the late stages of stellar evolution. It passes then through (v) explosive environments from core-collapse supernovae to explosive events in binary systems (including type Ia supernovae and compact binary mergers), and finally (vi) discusses the role of all these nucleosynthesis production sites in the evolution of galaxies. The focus is put on the comparison of early ideas and present, very recent, understanding.Comment: 11 pages, to appear in Springer Proceedings in Physics (Proc. of Intl. Conf. "Nuclei in the Cosmos XV", LNGS Assergi, Italy, June 2018

Living on the edge: utilising lidar data to assess the importance of vegetation structure for avian diversity in fragmented woodlands and their edges

Context: In agricultural landscapes, small woodland patches can be important wildlife refuges. Their value in maintaining biodiversity may, however, be compromised by isolation, and so knowledge about the role of habitat structure is vital to understand the drivers of diversity. This study examined how avian diversity and abundance were related to habitat structure in four small woods in an agricultural landscape in eastern England. Objectives: The aims were to examine the edge effect on bird diversity and abundance, and the contributory role of vegetation structure. Specifically: what is the role of vegetation structure on edge effects, and which edge structures support the greatest bird diversity? Methods: Annual breeding bird census data for 28 species were combined with airborne lidar data in linear mixed models fitted separately at (i) the whole wood level, and (ii) for the woodland edges only. Results: Despite relatively small woodland areas (4.9–9.4 ha), bird diversity increased significantly towards the edges, being driven in part by vegetation structure. At the whole woods level, diversity was positively associated with increased vegetation above 0.5 m and especially with increasing vegetation density in the understorey layer, which was more abundant at the woodland edges. Diversity along the edges was largely driven by the density of vegetation below 4 m. Conclusions: The results demonstrate that bird diversity was maximised by a diverse vegetation structure across the wood and especially a dense understorey along the edge. These findings can assist bird conservation by guiding habitat management of remaining woodland patches

Power Law versus Exponential State Transition Dynamics: Application to Sleep-Wake Architecture

BACKGROUND: Despite the common experience that interrupted sleep has a negative impact on waking function, the features of human sleep-wake architecture that best distinguish sleep continuity versus fragmentation remain elusive. In this regard, there is growing interest in characterizing sleep architecture using models of the temporal dynamics of sleep-wake stage transitions. In humans and other mammals, the state transitions defining sleep and wake bout durations have been described with exponential and power law models, respectively. However, sleep-wake stage distributions are often complex, and distinguishing between exponential and power law processes is not always straightforward. Although mono-exponential distributions are distinct from power law distributions, multi-exponential distributions may in fact resemble power laws by appearing linear on a log-log plot. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To characterize the parameters that may allow these distributions to mimic one another, we systematically fitted multi-exponential-generated distributions with a power law model, and power law-generated distributions with multi-exponential models. We used the Kolmogorov-Smirnov method to investigate goodness of fit for the "incorrect" model over a range of parameters. The "zone of mimicry" of parameters that increased the risk of mistakenly accepting power law fitting resembled empiric time constants obtained in human sleep and wake bout distributions. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Recognizing this uncertainty in model distinction impacts interpretation of transition dynamics (self-organizing versus probabilistic), and the generation of predictive models for clinical classification of normal and pathological sleep architecture

The Formation and Evolution of the First Massive Black Holes

The first massive astrophysical black holes likely formed at high redshifts (z>10) at the centers of low mass (~10^6 Msun) dark matter concentrations. These black holes grow by mergers and gas accretion, evolve into the population of bright quasars observed at lower redshifts, and eventually leave the supermassive black hole remnants that are ubiquitous at the centers of galaxies in the nearby universe. The astrophysical processes responsible for the formation of the earliest seed black holes are poorly understood. The purpose of this review is threefold: (1) to describe theoretical expectations for the formation and growth of the earliest black holes within the general paradigm of hierarchical cold dark matter cosmologies, (2) to summarize several relevant recent observations that have implications for the formation of the earliest black holes, and (3) to look into the future and assess the power of forthcoming observations to probe the physics of the first active galactic nuclei.Comment: 39 pages, review for "Supermassive Black Holes in the Distant Universe", Ed. A. J. Barger, Kluwer Academic Publisher

Shoulder muscle endurance: the development of a standardized and reliable protocol

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Shoulder muscle fatigue has been proposed as a possible link to explain the association between repetitive arm use and the development of rotator cuff disorders. To our knowledge, no standardized clinical endurance protocol has been developed to evaluate the effects of muscle fatigue on shoulder function. Such a test could improve clinical examination of individuals with shoulder disorders. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to establish a reliable protocol for objective assessment of shoulder muscle endurance.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>An endurance protocol was developed on a stationary dynamometer (Biodex System 3). The endurance protocol was performed in isotonic mode with the resistance set at 50% of each subject's peak torque as measured for shoulder external (ER) and internal rotation (IR). Each subject performed 60 continuous repetitions of IR/ER rotation. The endurance protocol was performed by 36 healthy individuals on two separate occasions at least two days apart. Maximal isometric shoulder strength tests were performed before and after the fatigue protocol to evaluate the effects of the endurance protocol and its reliability. Paired <it>t</it>-tests were used to evaluate the reduction in shoulder strength due to the protocol, while intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) and minimal detectable change (MDC) were used to evaluate its reliability.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Maximal isometric strength was significantly decreased after the endurance protocol (<it>P </it>< 0.001). The total work performed during the last third of the protocol was significantly less than the first third of the protocol (P < 0.05). The test-retest reliability of the post-fatigue strength measures was excellent (ICC >0.84).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Changes in muscular performance observed during and after the muscular endurance protocol suggests that the protocol did result in muscular fatigue. Furthermore, this study established that the resultant effects of fatigue of the proposed isotonic protocol were reproducible over time. The protocol was performed without difficulty by all volunteers and took less than 10 minutes to perform, suggesting that it might be feasible for clinical practice. This protocol could be used to induce local muscular fatigue in order to evaluate the effects of fatigue on shoulder kinematics or to evaluate changes in shoulder muscle endurance following rehabilitation.</p

High Salt Intake Down-Regulates Colonic Mineralocorticoid Receptors, Epithelial Sodium Channels and 11β-Hydroxysteroid Dehydrogenase Type 2

Besides the kidneys, the gastrointestinal tract is the principal organ responsible for sodium homeostasis. For sodium transport across the cell membranes the epithelial sodium channel (ENaC) is of pivotal relevance. The ENaC is mainly regulated by mineralocorticoid receptor mediated actions. The MR activation by endogenous 11β-hydroxy-glucocorticoids is modulated by the 11β-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase type 2 (11β-HSD2). Here we present evidence for intestinal segment specific 11β-HSD2 expression and hypothesize that a high salt intake and/or uninephrectomy (UNX) affects colonic 11β-HSD2, MR and ENaC expression. The 11β-HSD2 activity was measured by means of 3H-corticosterone conversion into 3H-11-dehydrocorticosterone in Sprague Dawley rats on a normal and high salt diet. The activity increased steadily from the ileum to the distal colon by a factor of about 3, an observation in line with the relevance of the distal colon for sodium handling. High salt intake diminished mRNA and protein of 11β-HSD2 by about 50% (p<0.001) and reduced the expression of the MR (p<0.01). The functionally relevant ENaC-β and ENaC-γ expression, a measure of mineralocorticoid action, diminished by more than 50% by high salt intake (p<0.001). The observed changes were present in rats with and without UNX. Thus, colonic epithelial cells appear to contribute to the protective armamentarium of the mammalian body against salt overload, a mechanism not modulated by UNX