A dynamic spatial model of conflict escalation

In both historical and modern conflicts, space plays a critical role in how interactions occur over time. Despite its importance, the spatial distribution of adversaries has often been neglected in mathematical models of conflict. In this paper, we propose an entropy-maximising spatial interaction method for disaggregating the impact of space, employing a general notion of ‘threat’ between two adversaries. This approach addresses a number of limitations that are associated with partial differential equation approaches to spatial disaggregation. We use this method to spatially disaggregate the Richardson model of conflict escalation, and then explore the resulting model with both analytical and numerical treatments. A bifurcation is identified that dramatically influences the resulting spatial distribution of conflict and is shown to persist under a range of model specifications. Implications of this finding for real-world conflicts are discussed

Field-enhanced direct tunneling in ultrathin atomic-layer-deposition-grown Au-Al2O3-Cr metal-insulator-metal structures

Metal-insulator-metal structures based on ultrathin high-k dielectric films are underpinning a rapidly increasing number of devices and applications. Here, we report detailed electrical characterizations of asymmetric metal-insulator-metal devices featuring atomic layer deposited 2-nm-thick Al2O3 films. We find a high consistency in the current density as a function of applied electric field between devices with very different surface areas and significant asymmetries in the IV characteristics. We show by TEM that the thickness of the dielectric film and the quality of the metal-insulator interfaces are highly uniform and of high quality, respectively. In addition, we develop a model which accounts for the field enhancement due to the small sharp features on the electrode surface and show that this can very accurately describe the observed asymmetry in the current-voltage characteristic, which cannot be explained by the difference in work function alone

Quantum anti-Zeno effect without wave function reduction

We study the measurement-induced enhancement of the spontaneous decay (called quantum anti-Zeno effect) for a two-level subsystem, where measurements are treated as couplings between the excited state and an auxiliary state rather than the von Neumann's wave function reduction. The photon radiated in a fast decay of the atom, from the auxiliary state to the excited state, triggers a quasi-measurement, as opposed to a projection measurement. Our use of the term "quasi-measurement" refers to a "coupling-based measurement". Such frequent quasi-measurements result in an exponential decay of the survival probability of atomic initial state with a photon emission following each quasi-measurement. Our calculations show that the effective decay rate is of the same form as the one based on projection measurements. What is more important, the survival probability of the atomic initial state which is obtained by tracing over all the photon states is equivalent to the survival probability of the atomic initial state with a photon emission following each quasi-measurement to the order under consideration. That is because the contributions from those states with photon number less than the number of quasi-measurements originate from higher-order processes.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figure

Vitamin K antagonists predispose to calciphylaxis in patients with end-stage renal disease.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Calciphylaxis is associated with a poor prognosis in dialysis patients, and its pathogenesis remains incompletely understood. Although the use of vitamin K antagonists (VKA) has been implicated, previous reports are conflicting. We aimed to determine if vitamin K antagonists conferred an increased risk of calciphylaxis in patients on dialysis. METHODS: We performed a single-centre, retrospective cohort study of 2,234 patients receiving dialysis, and compared the characteristics of those with and without calciphylaxis. RESULTS: We identified 5 cases of calciphylaxis (all female) between January 2009 and December 2013. Overall, 142 patients (6.4%) were treated with VKA during the study period. Calciphylaxis was more common in the VKA group (4 of 142 patients, OR = 61, 95% CI 6.7-546, p = 0.0001). VKA was withdrawn in all cases and treatment instituted with sodium thiosulphate, cinacalcet and supportive measures. All patients recovered, although there was one sudden cerebrovascular death during follow-up. CONCLUSION: Treatment with VKA predisposes to the development of calciphylaxis.TFH is funded by the Cambridge BRC and NIHR.This is the accepted manuscript for a paper published in Nephron Clinical Practice, Vol. 129, No. 3, 2015, DOI:10.1159/00037144

A high prevalence of cumulative trauma disorders in Iranian instrumentalists

BACKGROUND: Cumulative trauma disorders (CTDs) are common in musicians and their prevalence has been the subject of a number of studies in most western countries. Such studies are scarce in developing countries despite the possibility that CTDs may have a different prevalence in these countries, especially when considering traditional musical instruments and different methods of playing. Although not formally studied before, according to our experience the prevalence of CTDs seemed to be high among Iranian instrumentalists. We proposed this study to determine the prevalence of CTDs in amateur music students playing one of the two traditional Iranian instruments: Daf and Setar. METHODS: In a prospective cross sectional study, we interviewed and examined the students of three music training centers in Iran. Seventy eight instrumentalists, who were playing Daf or Setar and twelve students who had not started playing yet were regarded as case and control groups respectively. Some of them also underwent electrodiagnostic studies. RESULTS: Forty-seven percent (17 of 36) of the Setar players and 57% (24 of 42) of the Daf players and fifty-three percent (41 of 78) of the instrumentalists as a whole had CTDs. None of them had carpal tunnel syndrome. CONCLUSIONS: Our study revealed that the prevalence of CTDs in Iranian instrumentalists was unusually high. In addition to age, other variables may be contributory. This needs to be further studied

Positive Selection of a Pre-Expansion CAG Repeat of the Human SCA2 Gene

A region of approximately one megabase of human Chromosome 12 shows extensive linkage disequilibrium in Utah residents with ancestry from northern and western Europe. This strikingly large linkage disequilibrium block was analyzed with statistical and experimental methods to determine whether natural selection could be implicated in shaping the current genome structure. Extended Haplotype Homozygosity and Relative Extended Haplotype Homozygosity analyses on this region mapped a core region of the strongest conserved haplotype to the exon 1 of the Spinocerebellar ataxia type 2 gene (SCA2). Direct DNA sequencing of this region of the SCA2 gene revealed a significant association between a pre-expanded allele [(CAG)(8)CAA(CAG)(4)CAA(CAG)(8)] of CAG repeats within exon 1 and the selected haplotype of the SCA2 gene. A significantly negative Tajima's D value (−2.20, p < 0.01) on this site consistently suggested selection on the CAG repeat. This region was also investigated in the three other populations, none of which showed signs of selection. These results suggest that a recent positive selection of the pre-expansion SCA2 CAG repeat has occurred in Utah residents with European ancestry

Adverse Events of Extracorporeal Ultrasound-Guided High Intensity Focused Ultrasound Therapy

High-intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) is considered to be an alternative to surgery. Extracorporeal ultrasound-guided HIFU (USgFU) has been clinically used to treat solid tumors. Preliminary trials in a small sample of a Western population suggested that this modality was safe. Most trials are performed in China thereby providing comprehensive data for understanding the safety profile. The aim of this study was to evaluate adverse events of USgFU therapy.Clinical data were searched in 2 Chinese databases. Adverse events of USgFU were summarized and compared with those of magnetic resonance-guided HIFU (MRgFU; for uterine, bone or breast tumor) and transrectal ultrasound-guided HIFU (for prostate cancer or benign prostate hyperplasia). USgFU treatment was performed using 7 types of device. Side effects were evaluated in 13262 cases. There were fewer adverse events in benign lesions than in malignant lesions (11.81% vs. 21.65%, p<0.0001). Rates of adverse events greatly varied between the disease types (0-280%, p<0.0001) and between the applied HIFU devices in both malignant (10.58-44.38%, p<0.0001) and benign lesions (1.67-17.57%, p<0.0001). Chronological analysis did not demonstrate a decrease in the rate of adverse events. Based upon evaluable adverse events, incidences in USgFU were consistent with those in MRgFU or transrectal HIFU. Some side effects frequently occurred following transrectal HIFU were not reported in USgFU. Several events including intrahepatic metastasis, intraoperative high fever, and occlusions of the superior mesenteric artery should be of particular concern because they have not been previously noted. The types of adverse events suggested that they were ultrasonic lesions.The frequency of adverse events depended on the location of the lesion and the type of HIFU device; however, side effects of USgFU were not yet understood. USgFU did not decrease the incidence of adverse events compared with MRgFU

A search for the decay modes B+/- to h+/- tau l

We present a search for the lepton flavor violating decay modes B+/- to h+/- tau l (h= K,pi; l= e,mu) using the BaBar data sample, which corresponds to 472 million BBbar pairs. The search uses events where one B meson is fully reconstructed in one of several hadronic final states. Using the momenta of the reconstructed B, h, and l candidates, we are able to fully determine the tau four-momentum. The resulting tau candidate mass is our main discriminant against combinatorial background. We see no evidence for B+/- to h+/- tau l decays and set a 90% confidence level upper limit on each branching fraction at the level of a few times 10^-5.Comment: 15 pages, 7 figures, submitted to Phys. Rev.

Using Routinely Collected Administrative Data in Public Health Research: Geocoding Alcohol Outlet Data

We describe our process of geocoding alcohol outlets to create a national longitudinal exposure dataset for Wales, United Kingdom from 2006 to 2011. We investigated variation in the availability of data items and the quality of alcohol outlet addresses held within unitary authorities. We used a standard geocoding method augmented with a manual matching procedure to achieve a fully spatially referenced dataset. We found higher quality addresses are held for outlets based in urban areas, resulting in the automatic geocoding of 68 % of urban outlets, compared to 48 % in rural areas. Missing postcodes and a lack of address structure contributed to a lower geocoding proportion. An urban rural bias was removed with the development of a manual matching procedure. Only one-half of the unitary authorities provided data on on/off sales and opening times, which are important availability factors. The resulting outlet dataset is suitable for contributing to the evidence-base of alcohol availability and alcohol-related harm. Local government should be encouraged to use standardised data fields, including addresses, to enable accurate geocoding of alcohol outlets and facilitate research that aims to prevent alcohol-related harm. Standardising data collection would enable efficient secondary data reuse using record linkage techniques, allowing the retrospective creation and evaluation of population-based natural experiments to provide evidence for policy and practice