Estimating and Modelling Bias of the Hierarchical Partitioning Public-Domain Software: Implications in Environmental Management and Conservation

BACKGROUND: Hierarchical partitioning (HP) is an analytical method of multiple regression that identifies the most likely causal factors while alleviating multicollinearity problems. Its use is increasing in ecology and conservation by its usefulness for complementing multiple regression analysis. A public-domain software "hier.part package" has been developed for running HP in R software. Its authors highlight a "minor rounding error" for hierarchies constructed from >9 variables, however potential bias by using this module has not yet been examined. Knowing this bias is pivotal because, for example, the ranking obtained in HP is being used as a criterion for establishing priorities of conservation. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using numerical simulations and two real examples, we assessed the robustness of this HP module in relation to the order the variables have in the analysis. Results indicated a considerable effect of the variable order on the amount of independent variance explained by predictors for models with >9 explanatory variables. For these models the nominal ranking of importance of the predictors changed with variable order, i.e. predictors declared important by its contribution in explaining the response variable frequently changed to be either most or less important with other variable orders. The probability of changing position of a variable was best explained by the difference in independent explanatory power between that variable and the previous one in the nominal ranking of importance. The lesser is this difference, the more likely is the change of position. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: HP should be applied with caution when more than 9 explanatory variables are used to know ranking of covariate importance. The explained variance is not a useful parameter to use in models with more than 9 independent variables. The inconsistency in the results obtained by HP should be considered in future studies as well as in those already published. Some recommendations to improve the analysis with this HP module are given

Immigration, work and health in Spain: the influence of legal status and employment contract on reported health indicators

Objective To analyze the relationship of legal status and employment conditions with health indicators in foreign-born and Spanish-born workers in Spain. Methods Cross-sectional study of 1,849 foreign-born and 509 Spanish-born workers (2008–2009, ITSAL Project). Considered employment conditions: permanent, temporary and no contract (foreign-born and Spanish-born); considered legal statuses: documented and undocumented (foreign-born). Joint relationships with self-rated health (SRH) and mental health (MH) were analyzed via logistical regression. Results When compared with male permanently contracted Spanish-born workers, worse health is seen in undocumented foreign-born, time in Spain ≤3 years (SRH aOR 2.68, 95% CI 1.09–6.56; MH aOR 2.26, 95% CI 1.15–4.42); in Spanish-born, temporary contracts (SRH aOR 2.40, 95% CI 1.04–5.53); and in foreign-born, temporary contracts, time in Spain >3 years (MH: aOR 1.96, 95% CI 1.13–3.38). In females, highest self-rated health risks are in foreign-born, temporary contracts (aOR 2.36, 95% CI 1.13–4.91) and without contracts, time in Spain >3 years (aOR 4.63, 95% CI 1.95–10.97). Conclusions Contract type is a health determinant in both foreign-born and Spanish-born workers. This study offers an uncommon exploration of undocumented migration and raises methodological issues to consider in future research.The study was funded partially by Fondo de Investigaciones Sanitarias [Spanish Fund for Health Research] grant numbers FIS PI050497, PI052334, PI061701

C4b Binding Protein Binds to CD154 Preventing CD40 Mediated Cholangiocyte Apoptosis: A Novel Link between Complement and Epithelial Cell Survival

Activation of CD40 on hepatocytes and cholangiocytes is critical for amplifying Fas-mediated apoptosis in the human liver. C4b-Binding Protein (C4BP) has been reported to act as a potential surrogate ligand for CD40, suggesting that it could be involved in modulating liver epithelial cell survival. Using surface plasmon resonance (BiaCore) analysis supported by gel filtration we have shown that C4BP does not bind CD40, but it forms stable high molecular weight complexes with soluble CD40 ligand (sCD154). These C4BP/sCD154 complexes bound efficiently to immobilised CD40, but when applied to cholangiocytes they failed to induce apoptosis or proliferation or to activate NFkB, AP-1 or STAT 3, which are activated by sCD154 alone. Thus C4BP can modulate CD40/sCD154 interactions by presenting a high molecular weight multimeric sCD154/C4BP complex that suppresses critical intracellular signalling pathways, permitting cell survival without inducing proliferation. Immunohistochemistry demonstrated co-localisation and enhanced expression of C4BP and CD40 in human liver cancers. These findings suggest a novel pathway whereby components of the complement system and TNF ligands and receptors might be involved in modulating epithelial cell survival in chronic inflammation and malignant disease

The effect of positively framing side-effect risk in two different formats on side-effect expectations, informed consent and credibility: A randomised trial of 16- to 75-year-olds in England

Introduction Reframing side-effect information in patient information leaflets (PILs) in terms of those who remain side-effect–free may reduce negative expectations and side-effects, although there are concerns this may impact informed consent. This study compared two versions of positively framed PILs with current practice to see which reduces side-effect expectations whilst maintaining informed consent and credibility. Methods We commissioned Ipsos MORI to conduct an online survey of 16- to 75-year-olds in England. 1067 people completed the study and were randomised to receive a PIL for a hypothetical new antibiotic that either communicated side-effects following current practice (n = 356), used positive framing with natural frequencies (n = 356), or positive framing with percentages (n = 355). After reading the leaflet, participants completed measures of their side-effect expectations, absolute risk perceptions, and satisfaction and credibility of the leaflet. Results Both positively framed PILs resulted in significantly lower side-effect expectations compared with the current PIL for all side-effects (ps  0.626). The positively framed PIL using natural frequencies produced more accurate risk perceptions than the same leaflet using percentages; but performed equally to the current PIL. There was no difference between the leaflets in terms of satisfaction with or credibility of the PILs. Conclusion Positively framed PILs using natural frequencies significantly reduced side-effect expectations and provided the most accurate risk perceptions without impacting satisfaction or credibility. Replication is needed with patients prescribed new medication and those with lower educational status

Systemic versus localized coagulation activation contributing to organ failure in critically ill patients

In the pathogenesis of sepsis, inflammation and coagulation play a pivotal role. Increasing evidence points to an extensive cross-talk between these two systems, whereby inflammation not only leads to activation of coagulation but coagulation also considerably affects inflammatory activity. The intricate relationship between inflammation and coagulation may not only be relevant for vascular atherothrombotic disease in general but has in certain clinical settings considerable consequences, for example in the pathogenesis of microvascular failure and subsequent multiple organ failure, as a result of severe infection and the associated systemic inflammatory response. Molecular pathways that contribute to inflammation-induced activation of coagulation have been precisely identified. Pro-inflammatory cytokines and other mediators are capable of activating the coagulation system and downregulating important physiological anticoagulant pathways. Activation of the coagulation system and ensuing thrombin generation is dependent on an interleukin-6-induced expression of tissue factor on activated mononuclear cells and endothelial cells and is insufficiently counteracted by physiological anticoagulant mechanisms and endogenous fibrinolysis. Interestingly, apart from the overall systemic responses, a differential local response in various vascular beds related to specific organs may occur

Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

Background: Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality. // Methods: We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung's disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis. // Findings: We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung's disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middle-income countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in low-income countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality. // Interpretation: Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030