Alternative linear structures for classical and quantum systems

The possibility of deforming the (associative or Lie) product to obtain alternative descriptions for a given classical or quantum system has been considered in many papers. Here we discuss the possibility of obtaining some novel alternative descriptions by changing the linear structure instead. In particular we show how it is possible to construct alternative linear structures on the tangent bundle TQ of some classical configuration space Q that can be considered as "adapted" to the given dynamical system. This fact opens the possibility to use the Weyl scheme to quantize the system in different non equivalent ways, "evading", so to speak, the von Neumann uniqueness theorem.Comment: 32 pages, two figures, to be published in IJMP

Holonomy groups and W-symmetries

Irreducible sigma models, i.e. those for which the partition function does not factorise, are defined on Riemannian spaces with irreducible holonomy groups. These special geometries are characterised by the existence of covariantly constant forms which in turn give rise to symmetries of the supersymmetric sigma model actions. The Poisson bracket algebra of the corresponding currents is a W-algebra. Extended supersymmetries arise as special cases.Comment: pages 2

Can we project changes in fish abundance and distribution in response to climate?

Large scale and long-term changes in fish abundance and distribution in response to climate change have been simulated using both statistical and process-based models. However, national and regional fisheries management requires also shorter term projections on smaller spatial scales, and these need to be validated against fisheries data. A 26-year time series of fish surveys with high spatial resolution in the North East Atlantic provides a unique opportunity to assess the ability of models to correctly simulate the changes in fish distribution and abundance that occurred in response to climate variability and change. We use a dynamic bioclimate envelope model forced by physical-biogeochemical output from eight ocean models to simulate changes in fish abundance and distribution at scales down to a spatial resolution of 0.5°. When comparing with these simulations with annual fish survey data, we found the largest differences at the 0.5° scale. Differences between fishery model runs driven by different biogeochemical models decrease dramatically when results are aggregated to larger scales (e.g. the whole North Sea), to total catches rather than individual species or when the ensemble mean instead of individual simulations are used. Recent improvements in the fidelity of biogeochemical models translate into lower error rates in the fisheries simulations. However, predictions based on different biogeochemical models are often more similar to each other than they are to the survey data, except for some pelagic species. We conclude that model results can be used to guide fisheries management at larger spatial scales, but more caution is needed at smaller scales

Compound marine heatwaves and ocean acidity extremes

Compound MHW-OAX events, during which marine heatwaves (MHWs) co-occur with ocean acidity extreme (OAX) events, can have larger impacts on marine ecosystems than the individual extremes. Using monthly open-ocean observations over the period 1982-2019, we show that globally 1.8 in 100 months (or about one out of five present-day MHW months) are compound MHW-OAX event months under a present-day baseline, almost twice as many as expected for 90th percentile extreme event exceedances if MHWs and OAX events were statistically independent. Compound MHW-OAX events are most likely in the subtropics (2.7 in 100 months; 10 degrees-40 degrees latitude) and less likely in the equatorial Pacific and the mid-to-high latitudes (0.7 in 100 months; >40 degrees latitude). The likelihood pattern results from opposing effects of temperature and dissolved inorganic carbon on [H+]. The likelihood is higher where the positive effect on [H+] from increased temperatures during MHWs outweighs the negative effect on [H+] from co-occurring decreases in dissolved inorganic carbon. Daily model output from a large-ensemble simulation of an Earth system model is analyzed to assess changes in the MHW-OAX likelihood under climate change. The projected long-term mean warming and acidification trends have the largest effect on the number of MHW-OAX days per year, increasing it from 12 to 265 days per year at 2 degrees C global warming relative to a fixed pre-industrial baseline. Even when long-term trends are removed, an increase in [H+] variability leads to a 60% increase in the number of MHW-OAX days under 2 degrees C global warming. These projected increases may cause severe impacts on marine ecosystems. Compound extreme events in two or more oceanic ecosystem stressors are increasingly considered as a major concern for marine life. Here the authors present a first global analysis on compound marine heatwave and ocean acidity extreme events, identifying hotspots, drivers, and projecting future changes

Increase in ocean acidity variability and extremes under increasing atmospheric CO2

Ocean acidity extreme events are short-term periods of relatively high [H+] concentrations. The uptake of anthropogenic CO2 emissions by the ocean is expected to lead to more frequent and intense ocean acidity extreme events, not only due to changes in the long-term mean but also due to changes in short-term variability. Here, we use daily mean output from a five-member ensemble simulation of a comprehensive Earth system model under low- and high-CO2-emission scenarios to quantify historical and future changes in ocean acidity extreme events. When defining extremes relative to a fixed preindustrial baseline, the projected increase in mean [H+] causes the entire surface ocean to reach a near-permanent acidity extreme state by 2030 under both the low- and high-CO2-emission scenarios. When defining extremes relative to a shifting baseline (i.e., neglecting the changes in mean [H+]), ocean acidity extremes are also projected to increase because of the simulated increase in [H+] variability; e.g., the number of days with extremely high surface [H+] conditions is projected to increase by a factor of 14 by the end of the 21st century under the high-CO2-emission scenario relative to preindustrial levels. Furthermore, the duration of individual extreme events is projected to triple, and the maximal intensity and the volume extent in the upper 200 m are projected to quintuple. Similar changes are projected in the thermocline. Under the low-emission scenario, the increases in ocean acidity extreme-event characteristics are substantially reduced. At the surface, the increases in [H+] variability are mainly driven by increases in [H+] seasonality, whereas changes in thermocline [H+] variability are more influenced by interannual variability. Increases in [H+] variability arise predominantly from increases in the sensitivity of [H+] to variations in its drivers (i.e., carbon, alkalinity, and temperature) due to the increase in oceanic anthropogenic carbon. The projected increase in [H+] variability and extremes may enhance the risk of detrimental impacts on marine organisms, especially for those that are adapted to a more stable environment

The global ocean is an ecosystem : simulating marine life and fisheries

AimThere has been considerable effort allocated to understanding the impact of climate change on our physical environment, but comparatively little to how life on Earth and ecosystem services will be affected. Therefore, we have developed a spatial-temporal food web model of the global ocean, spanning from primary producers through to top predators and fisheries. Through this, we aim to evaluate how alternative management actions may impact the supply of seafood for future generations. LocationGlobal ocean. MethodsWe developed a modelling complex to initially predict the combined impact of environmental parameters and fisheries on global seafood production, and initially evaluated the model's performance through hindcasting. The modelling complex has a food web model as core, obtains environmental productivity from a biogeochemical model and assigns global fishing effort spatially. We tuned model parameters based on Markov chain random walk stock reduction analysis, fitting the model to historic catches. We evaluated the goodness-of-fit of the model to data for major functional groups, by spatial management units and globally. ResultsThis model is the most detailed ever constructed of global fisheries, and it was able to replicate broad patterns of historic fisheries catches with best agreement for the total catches and good agreement for species groups, with more variation at the regional level. Main conclusionsWe have developed a modelling complex that can be used for evaluating the combined impact of fisheries and climate change on upper-trophic level organisms in the global ocean, including invertebrates, fish and other large vertebrates. The model provides an important step that will allow global-scale evaluation of how alternative fisheries management measures can be used for mitigation of climate change

The declining uptake rate of atmospheric CO2 by land and ocean sinks

Through 1959-2012, an airborne fraction (AF) of 0.44 of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions remained in the atmosphere, with the rest being taken up by land and ocean CO2 sinks. Understanding of this uptake is critical because it greatly alleviates the emissions reductions required for climate mitigation, and also reduces the risks and damages that adaptation has to embrace. An observable quantity that reflects sink properties more directly than the AF is the CO 2 sink rate (kS), the combined land-ocean CO2 sink flux per unit excess atmospheric CO2 above preindustrial levels. Here we show from observations thatkS declined over 1959-2012 by a factor of about 1 / 3, implying that CO2 sinks increased more slowly than excess CO2. Using a carbon-climate model, we attribute the decline inkS to four mechanisms: slower-than-exponential CO2 emissions growth (∼ 35% of the trend), volcanic eruptions (∼ 25%), sink responses to climate change (∼ 20%), and nonlinear responses to increasing CO2, mainly oceanic (∼ 20%). The first of these mechanisms is associated purely with the trajectory of extrinsic forcing, and the last two with intrinsic, feedback responses of sink processes to changes in climate and atmospheric CO2. Our results suggest that the effects of these intrinsic, nonlinear responses are already detectable in the global carbon cycle. Although continuing future decreases inkS will occur under all plausible CO2 emission scenarios, the rate of decline varies between scenarios in non-intuitive ways because extrinsic and intrinsic mechanisms respond in opposite ways to changes in emissions: extrinsic mechanisms causekS to decline more strongly with increasing mitigation, while intrinsic mechanisms causekS to decline more strongly under high-emission, low-mitigation scenarios as the carbon-climate system is perturbed further from a near-linear regime