Spam Works: Evidence from Stock Touts and Corresponding Market Activity

We assess the impact of spam that touts stocks upon the trading activity of those stocks and sketch how profitable such spamming might be for spammers and how harmful it is to those who heed advice in stock-touting e-mails. We find convincing evidence that stock prices are being manipulated through spam. We suggest that the effectiveness of spammed stock touting calls into question prevailing models of securities regulation that rely principally on the proper labeling of information and disclosure of conflicts of interest as means of protecting consumers, and we propose several regulatory and industry interventions. Based on a large sample of touted stocks listed on the Pink Sheets quotation system and a large sample of spam emails touting stocks, we find that stocks experience a significantly positive return on days prior to heavy touting via spam. Volume of trading responds positively and significantly to heavy touting. For a stock that is touted at some point during our sample period, the probability of it being the most actively traded stock in our sample jumps from 4% on a day when there is no touting activity to 70% on a day when there is touting activity. Returns in the days following touting are significantly negative. The evidence accords with a hypothesis that spammers "buy low and spam high," purchasing penny stocks with comparatively low liquidity, then touting them - perhaps immediately after an independently occurring upward tick in price, or after having caused the uptick themselves by engaging in preparatory purchasing - in order to increase or maintain trading activity and price enough to unload their positions at a profit. We find that prolific spamming greatly affects the trading volume of a targeted stock, drumming up buyers to prevent the spammer's initial selling from depressing the stock's price. Subsequent selling by the spammer (or others) while this buying pressure subsides results in negative returns following touting. Before brokerage fees, the average investor who buys a stock on the day it is most heavily touted and sells it 2 days after the touting ends will lose close to 5.5%. For those touted stocks with above-average levels of touting, a spammer who buys on the day before unleashing touts and sells on the day his or her touting is the heaviest, on average, will earn 4.29% before transaction costs. The underlying data and interactive charts showing price and volume changes are also made available

On the distinction of empathic and vicarious emotions

In the introduction to the special issue “The Neural Underpinnings of Vicarious Experience” the editors state that one “may feel embarrassed when witnessing another making a social faux pas”. In our commentary we address this statement and ask whether this example introduces a vicarious or an empathic form of embarrassment. We elaborate commonalities and differences between these two forms of emotional experiences and discuss their underlying mechanisms. We suggest that both, vicarious and empathic emotions, originate from the simulation processes mirroring and mentalizing that depend on anchoring and adjustment. We claim the term “empathic emotion” to be reserved exclusively for incidents where perceivers and social targets have shared affective experience, whereas “vicarious emotion” offers a wider scope and also includes non-shared affective experiences. Both are supposed to be highly functional in social interactions

Deep offshore wind farm planning and cost calculation tools

Postprint (published version

The Politics of Embarrassment: Considerations on How Norm-Transgressions of Political Representatives Shape Nation-Wide Communication of Emotions on Social Media

In this article, we hypothesize, and then demonstrate, that experiences of embarrassment have significantly increased in the United States, due in part, to the current situation in American politics under President Donald Trump. We provide support for our hypothesis by conducting both qualitative and quantitative analyses of Twitter posts in the U.S. obtained from the Crimson Hexagon database. Next, based on literature from social psychology, social neuroscience, and political theory, we propose a two-step process explaining why Trump's behavior has caused people in the U.S. to feel more embarrassment. First, compared to former representatives, Trump violates social norms in a manner that seems intentional, and second, these intentional norm violations specifically threaten the social integrity of in-group members—in this case, U.S. citizens. We discuss how these norm violations relate to the behavior of currently represented citizens and contextualize our rationale in recent changes of political representation and the public sphere. We conclude by proposing that more frequent, nation-wide experiences of embarrassment on behalf of the representative may motivate political actions to prevent further harm to individuals' self-concepts and protect social integrity

Selective Functionalization of Microstructured Surfaces by Laser-Assisted Particle Transfer

Microcavity arrays represent millions of different reaction compartments to screen for e.g. molecular interactions, exogenous factors for cells or enzymatic activity. We present a novel method to selectively synthesize different compounds in arrays of microcavities with up to 1,000,000 cavities per cm2. In our approach, polymer microparticles with embedded pre-activated monomers are selectively transferred into microcavities with laser radiation. After particle patterning, heating of the particle matrix simultaneously leads to diffusion and coupling of the monomers inside each microcavity separately. This method exhibits flexibility, not only in the choice of compounds, but also in the choice of particle matrix material, which determines the chemical reaction environment. The laser-assisted selective functionalization of microcavities can be easily combined with the intensively growing number of laser applications for patterning of molecules and cells, which is useful for the development of novel biological assays

Impact of immunosuppressive agents on clinical manifestations and outcome of staphylococcus aureus bloodstream infection: a propensity score-matched analysis in 2 large, prospectively evaluated cohorts

BACKGROUND: Staphylococcus aureus bloodstream infection (SAB) is a common, life-threatening infection. The impact of immunosuppressive agents on the outcome of patients with SAB is incompletely understood. METHODS: Data from 2 large prospective, international, multicenter cohort studies (Invasive Staphylococcus aureus Infections Cohort [INSTINCT] and International Staphylococcus aureus Collaboration [ISAC]) between 2006 and 2015 were analyzed. Patients receiving immunosuppressive agents were identified and a 1:1 propensity score-matched analysis was performed to adjust for baseline characteristics of patients. Overall survival and time to SAB-related late complications (SAB relapse, infective endocarditis, osteomyelitis, or other deep-seated manifestations) were analyzed by Cox regression and competing risk analyses, respectively. This approach was then repeated for specific immunosuppressive agents (corticosteroid monotherapy and immunosuppressive agents other than steroids [IMOTS]). RESULTS: Of 3188 analyzed patients, 309 were receiving immunosuppressive treatment according to our definitions and were matched to 309 nonimmunosuppressed patients. After propensity score matching, baseline characteristics were well balanced. In the Cox regression analysis, we observed no significant difference in survival between the 2 groups (death during follow-up: 105/309 [33.9%] immunosuppressed vs 94/309 [30.4%] nonimmunosuppressed; hazard ratio [HR], 1.20 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .84-1.71]). Competing risk analysis showed a cause-specific HR of 1.81 (95% CI, .85-3.87) for SAB-related late complications in patients receiving immunosuppressive agents. The cause-specific HR was higher in patients taking IMOTS (3.69 [95% CI, 1.41-9.68]). CONCLUSIONS: Immunosuppressive agents were not associated with an overall higher mortality. The risk for SAB-related late complications in patients receiving specific immunosuppressive agents such as IMOTS warrants further investigations

Workshop report: Exploring deep oceanic crust off Hawai‘i

For more than half a century, exploring a complete sequence of the oceanic crust from the seafloor through the Mohorovičić discontinuity (Moho) and into the uppermost mantle has been one of the most challenging missions of scientific ocean drilling. Such a scientific and technological achievement would provide humankind with profound insights into the largest realm of our planet and expand our fundamental understanding of Earth's deep interior and its geodynamic behavior. The formation of new oceanic crust at mid-ocean ridges and its subsequent aging over millions of years, leading to subduction, arc volcanism, and recycling of some components into the mantle, comprise the dominant geological cycle of matter and energy on Earth. Although previous scientific ocean drilling has cored some drill holes into old (> 110 Ma) and young (< 20 Ma) ocean crust, our sampling remains relatively shallow (< 2 km into intact crust) and unrepresentative of average oceanic crust. To date, no hole penetrates more than 100 m into intact average-aged oceanic crust that records the long-term history of seawater–basalt exchange (60 to 90 Myr). In addition, the nature, extent, and evolution of the deep subseafloor biosphere within oceanic crust remains poorly unknown. To address these fundamentally significant scientific issues, an international workshop “Exploring Deep Oceanic Crust off Hawai`i” brought together 106 scientists and engineers from 16 countries that represented the entire spectrum of disciplines, including petrologists, geophysicists, geochemists, microbiologists, geodynamic modelers, and drilling/logging engineers. The aim of the workshop was to develop a full International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) proposal to drill a 2.5 km deep hole into oceanic crust on the North Arch off Hawai`i with the drilling research vessel Chikyu. This drill hole would provide samples down to cumulate gabbros of mature (∼ 80 Ma) oceanic crust formed at a half spreading rate of ∼ 3.5 cm a−1. A Moho reflection has been observed at ∼ 5.5 km below the seafloor at this site, and the workshop concluded that the proposed 2.5 km deep scientific drilling on the North Arch off Hawai`i would provide an essential “pilot hole” to inform the design of future mantle drilling

Clinical and virological characteristics of hospitalised COVID-19 patients in a German tertiary care centre during the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: a prospective observational study

Purpose: Adequate patient allocation is pivotal for optimal resource management in strained healthcare systems, and requires detailed knowledge of clinical and virological disease trajectories. The purpose of this work was to identify risk factors associated with need for invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV), to analyse viral kinetics in patients with and without IMV and to provide a comprehensive description of clinical course. Methods: A cohort of 168 hospitalised adult COVID-19 patients enrolled in a prospective observational study at a large European tertiary care centre was analysed. Results: Forty-four per cent (71/161) of patients required invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). Shorter duration of symptoms before admission (aOR 1.22 per day less, 95% CI 1.10-1.37, p < 0.01) and history of hypertension (aOR 5.55, 95% CI 2.00-16.82, p < 0.01) were associated with need for IMV. Patients on IMV had higher maximal concentrations, slower decline rates, and longer shedding of SARS-CoV-2 than non-IMV patients (33 days, IQR 26-46.75, vs 18 days, IQR 16-46.75, respectively, p < 0.01). Median duration of hospitalisation was 9 days (IQR 6-15.5) for non-IMV and 49.5 days (IQR 36.8-82.5) for IMV patients. Conclusions: Our results indicate a short duration of symptoms before admission as a risk factor for severe disease that merits further investigation and different viral load kinetics in severely affected patients. Median duration of hospitalisation of IMV patients was longer than described for acute respiratory distress syndrome unrelated to COVID-19

Sudden cardiac death after myocardial infarction: individual participant data from pooled cohorts

Risk stratification of sudden cardiac death after myocardial infarction and prevention by defibrillator rely on left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). Improved risk stratification across the whole LVEF range is required for decision-making on defibrillator implantation. The analysis pooled 20 data sets with 140 204 post-myocardial infarction patients containing information on demographics, medical history, clinical characteristics, biomarkers, electrocardiography, echocardiography, and cardiac magnetic resonance imaging. Separate analyses were performed in patients (i) carrying a primary prevention cardioverter-defibrillator with LVEF ≤ 35% [implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) patients], (ii) without cardioverter-defibrillator with LVEF ≤ 35% (non-ICD patients ≤ 35%), and (iii) without cardioverter-defibrillator with LVEF > 35% (non-ICD patients >35%). Primary outcome was sudden cardiac death or, in defibrillator carriers, appropriate defibrillator therapy. Using a competing risk framework and systematic internal-external cross-validation, a model using LVEF only, a multivariable flexible parametric survival model, and a multivariable random forest survival model were developed and externally validated. Predictive performance was assessed by random effect meta-analysis. There were 1326 primary outcomes in 7543 ICD patients, 1193 in 25 058 non-ICD patients ≤35%, and 1567 in 107 603 non-ICD patients >35% during mean follow-up of 30.0, 46.5, and 57.6 months, respectively. In these three subgroups, LVEF poorly predicted sudden cardiac death (c-statistics between 0.50 and 0.56). Considering additional parameters did not improve calibration and discrimination, and model generalizability was poor. More accurate risk stratification for sudden cardiac death and identification of low-risk individuals with severely reduced LVEF or of high-risk individuals with preserved LVEF was not feasible, neither using LVEF nor using other predictors. [Abstract copyright: © The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.