Selecting patients for randomized trials: a systematic approach based on risk group

BACKGROUND: A key aspect of randomized trial design is the choice of risk group. Some trials include patients from the entire at-risk population, others accrue only patients deemed to be at increased risk. We present a simple statistical approach for choosing between these approaches. The method is easily adapted to determine which of several competing definitions of high risk is optimal. METHOD: We treat eligibility criteria for a trial, such as a smoking history, as a prediction rule associated with a certain sensitivity (the number of patients who have the event and who are classified as high risk divided by the total number patients who have an event) and specificity (the number of patients who do not have an event and who do not meet criteria for high risk divided by the total number of patients who do not have an event). We then derive simple formulae to determine the proportion of patients receiving intervention, and the proportion who experience an event, where either all patients or only those at high risk are treated. We assume that the relative risk associated with intervention is the same over all choices of risk group. The proportion of events and interventions are combined using a net benefit approach and net benefit compared between strategies. RESULTS: We applied our method to design a trial of adjuvant therapy after prostatectomy. We were able to demonstrate that treating a high risk group was superior to treating all patients; choose the optimal definition of high risk; test the robustness of our results by sensitivity analysis. Our results had a ready clinical interpretation that could immediately aid trial design. CONCLUSION: The choice of risk group in randomized trials is usually based on rather informal methods. Our simple method demonstrates that this decision can be informed by simple statistical analyses

Carnegie Supernova Project-II: Extending the Near-Infrared Hubble Diagram for Type Ia Supernovae to z∼0.1z\sim0.1

The Carnegie Supernova Project-II (CSP-II) was an NSF-funded, four-year program to obtain optical and near-infrared observations of a "Cosmology" sample of $\sim100$ Type Ia supernovae located in the smooth Hubble flow ($0.03 \lesssim z \lesssim 0.10$). Light curves were also obtained of a "Physics" sample composed of 90 nearby Type Ia supernovae at $z \leq 0.04$ selected for near-infrared spectroscopic time-series observations. The primary emphasis of the CSP-II is to use the combination of optical and near-infrared photometry to achieve a distance precision of better than 5%. In this paper, details of the supernova sample, the observational strategy, and the characteristics of the photometric data are provided. In a companion paper, the near-infrared spectroscopy component of the project is presented.Comment: 43 pages, 10 figures, accepted for publication in PAS

Vernix caseosa peritonitis – no longer rare or innocent: a case series

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>Vernix Caseosa peritonitis is a rare post caesarean section complication with only 19 case reports in the literature to date. Vernix caseosa spilt at the time of caesarean section is thought to incite an inflammatory reaction, causing symptoms resembling an acute abdomen.</p> <p>Case Presentation</p> <p>We discuss three Caucasian patients (aged 32 to 43 years) who presented in our health sector in Sydney with vernix caseosa peritonitis. Each had a protracted course with significant comorbidities requiring surgical and medical intervention. This contrasts with other reports suggesting that a rapid resolution can be expected.</p> <p>This cluster may be a consequence of the rising caesarean section rate, a heightened local awareness of the condition and possibly a result of leaving material in the paracolic gutters intraoperatively.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our aim is to increase awareness among our obstetric and surgical colleagues of the characteristic clinical presentation and intra-operative findings of vernix caseosa peritonitis. We also point out that, in contrast to those presented here, not all patients require laparotomy.</p

Towards Machine Wald

The past century has seen a steady increase in the need of estimating and predicting complex systems and making (possibly critical) decisions with limited information. Although computers have made possible the numerical evaluation of sophisticated statistical models, these models are still designed \emph{by humans} because there is currently no known recipe or algorithm for dividing the design of a statistical model into a sequence of arithmetic operations. Indeed enabling computers to \emph{think} as \emph{humans} have the ability to do when faced with uncertainty is challenging in several major ways: (1) Finding optimal statistical models remains to be formulated as a well posed problem when information on the system of interest is incomplete and comes in the form of a complex combination of sample data, partial knowledge of constitutive relations and a limited description of the distribution of input random variables. (2) The space of admissible scenarios along with the space of relevant information, assumptions, and/or beliefs, tend to be infinite dimensional, whereas calculus on a computer is necessarily discrete and finite. With this purpose, this paper explores the foundations of a rigorous framework for the scientific computation of optimal statistical estimators/models and reviews their connections with Decision Theory, Machine Learning, Bayesian Inference, Stochastic Optimization, Robust Optimization, Optimal Uncertainty Quantification and Information Based Complexity.Comment: 37 page

Measurement of Neutrino Oscillation with KamLAND: Evidence of Spectral Distortion

We present results of a study of neutrino oscillation based on a 766 ton-year exposure of KamLAND to reactor anti-neutrinos. We observe 258 \nuebar\ candidate events with energies above 3.4 MeV compared to 365.2 events expected in the absence of neutrino oscillation. Accounting for 17.8 expected background events, the statistical significance for reactor \nuebar disappearance is 99.998%. The observed energy spectrum disagrees with the expected spectral shape in the absence of neutrino oscillation at 99.6% significance and prefers the distortion expected from \nuebar oscillation effects. A two-neutrino oscillation analysis of the KamLAND data gives \DeltaMSq = 7.9$^{+0.6}_{-0.5}\times10^{-5}$ eV$^2$. A global analysis of data from KamLAND and solar neutrino experiments yields \DeltaMSq = 7.9$^{+0.6}_{-0.5}\times10^{-5}$ eV$^2$ and \ThetaParam = 0.40$^{+0.10}_{-0.07}$, the most precise determination to date.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures; submitted to Phys.Rev.Letter

The contribution of home-based technology to older people's quality of life in extra care housing

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>British government policy for older people focuses on a vision of active ageing and independent living. In the face of diminishing personal capacities, the use of appropriate home-based technology (HBT) devices could potentially meet a wide range of needs and consequently improve many aspects of older people's quality of life such as physical health, psychosocial well-being, social relationships, and their physical or living environment. This study aimed to examine the use of HBT devices and the correlation between use of such devices and quality of life among older people living in extra-care housing (ECH).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A structured questionnaire was administered for this study. Using purposive sampling 160 older people living in extra-care housing schemes were selected from 23 schemes in England. A face-to-face interview was conducted in each participant's living unit. In order to measure quality of life, the SEIQoL-Adapted and CASP-19 were used.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Although most basic appliances and emergency call systems were used in the living units, communally provided facilities such as personal computers, washing machines, and assisted bathing equipment in the schemes were not well utilised. Multiple regression analysis adjusted for confounders including age, sex, marital status, living arrangement and mobility use indicated a coefficient of 1.17 with 95% CI (0.05, 2.29) and <it>p </it>= 0.04 [SEIQoL-Adapted] and 2.83 with 95% CI (1.17, 4.50) and <it>p </it>= 0.001 [CASP-19].</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The findings of the present study will be value to those who are developing new form of specialised housing for older people with functional limitations and, in particular, guiding investments in technological aids. The results of the present study also indicate that the home is an essential site for developing residential technologies.</p

Differential Expression of Melanopsin Isoforms Opn4L and Opn4S during Postnatal Development of the Mouse Retina

Photosensitive retinal ganglion cells (pRGCs) respond to light from birth and represent the earliest known light detection system to develop in the mouse retina. A number of morphologically and functionally distinct subtypes of pRGCs have been described in the adult retina, and have been linked to different physiological roles. We have previously identified two distinct isoforms of mouse melanopsin, Opn4L and Opn4S, which are generated by alternate splicing of the Opn4 locus. These isoforms are differentially expressed in pRGC subtypes of the adult mouse retina, with both Opn4L and Opn4S detected in M1 type pRGCs, and only Opn4L detected in M2 type pRGCs. Here we investigate the developmental expression of Opn4L and Opn4S and show a differential profile of expression during postnatal development. Opn4S mRNA is detected at relatively constant levels throughout postnatal development, with levels of Opn4S protein showing a marked increase between P0 and P3, and then increasing progressively over time until adult levels are reached by P10. By contrast, levels of Opn4L mRNA and protein are low at birth and show a marked increase at P14 and P30 compared to earlier time points. We suggest that these differing profiles of expression are associated with the functional maturation of M1 and M2 subtypes of pRGCs. Based upon our data, Opn4S expressing M1 type pRGCs mature first and are the dominant pRGC subtype in the neonate retina, whereas increased expression of Opn4L and the maturation of M2 type pRGCs occurs later, between P10 and P14, at a similar time to the maturation of rod and cone photoreceptors. We suggest that the distinct functions associated with these cell types will develop at different times during postnatal development

Predicting Hemolytic Uremic Syndrome and Renal Replacement Therapy in Shiga Toxin-producing Escherichia coli-infected Children.

BACKGROUND: Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) infections are leading causes of pediatric acute renal failure. Identifying hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS) risk factors is needed to guide care. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter, historical cohort study to identify features associated with development of HUS (primary outcome) and need for renal replacement therapy (RRT) (secondary outcome) in STEC-infected children without HUS at initial presentation. Children agedeligible. RESULTS: Of 927 STEC-infected children, 41 (4.4%) had HUS at presentation; of the remaining 886, 126 (14.2%) developed HUS. Predictors (all shown as odds ratio [OR] with 95% confidence interval [CI]) of HUS included younger age (0.77 [.69-.85] per year), leukocyte count ≥13.0 × 103/μL (2.54 [1.42-4.54]), higher hematocrit (1.83 [1.21-2.77] per 5% increase) and serum creatinine (10.82 [1.49-78.69] per 1 mg/dL increase), platelet count \u3c250 \u3e× 103/μL (1.92 [1.02-3.60]), lower serum sodium (1.12 [1.02-1.23 per 1 mmol/L decrease), and intravenous fluid administration initiated ≥4 days following diarrhea onset (2.50 [1.14-5.46]). A longer interval from diarrhea onset to index visit was associated with reduced HUS risk (OR, 0.70 [95% CI, .54-.90]). RRT predictors (all shown as OR [95% CI]) included female sex (2.27 [1.14-4.50]), younger age (0.83 [.74-.92] per year), lower serum sodium (1.15 [1.04-1.27] per mmol/L decrease), higher leukocyte count ≥13.0 × 103/μL (2.35 [1.17-4.72]) and creatinine (7.75 [1.20-50.16] per 1 mg/dL increase) concentrations, and initial intravenous fluid administration ≥4 days following diarrhea onset (2.71 [1.18-6.21]). CONCLUSIONS: The complex nature of STEC infection renders predicting its course a challenge. Risk factors we identified highlight the importance of avoiding dehydration and performing close clinical and laboratory monitoring

Using formative research to develop CHANGE! : a curriculum-based physical activity promoting intervention

Background : Low childhood physical activity levels are currently one of the most pressing public health concerns. Numerous school-based physical activity interventions have been conducted with varied success. Identifying effective child-based physical activity interventions are warranted. The purpose of this formative study was to elicit subjective views of children, their parents, and teachers about physical activity to inform the design of the CHANGE! (Children\u27s Health, Activity, and Nutrition: Get Educated!) intervention programme. Methods : Semi-structured mixed-gender interviews (group and individual) were conducted in 11 primary schools, stratified by socioeconomic status, with 60 children aged 9-10 years (24 boys, 36 girls), 33 parents (4 male, 29 female) and 10 teachers (4 male, 6 female). Questions for interviews were structured around the PRECEDE stage of the PRECEDE-PROCEDE model and addressed knowledge, attitudes and beliefs towards physical activity, as well as views on barriers to participation. All data were transcribed verbatim. Pen profiles were constructed from the transcripts in a deductive manner using the Youth Physical Activity Promotion Model framework. The profiles represented analysis outcomes via a diagram of key emergent themes. Results : Analyses revealed an understanding of the relationship between physical activity and health, although some children had limited understanding of what constitutes physical activity. Views elicited by children and parents were generally consistent. Fun, enjoyment and social support were important predictors of physical activity participation, though several barriers such as lack of parental support were identified across all group interviews. The perception of family invested time was positively linked to physical activity engagement. Conclusions : Families have a powerful and important role in promoting health-enhancing behaviours. Involvement of parents and the whole family is a strategy that could be significant to increase children\u27s physical activity levels. Addressing various perceived barriers to such behaviours therefore, remains imperative. <br /

High blood pressure in school children: prevalence and risk factors

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence of high blood pressure (HBP) and associated risk factors in school children 8 to 13 years of age. METHODS: Elementary school children (n = 1,066) were examined. Associations between HBP, body mass index (BMI), gender, ethnicity, and acanthosis nigricans (AN) were investigated using a school based cross-sectional study. Blood pressure was measured and the 95(th )percentile was used to determine HBP. Comparisons between children with and without HBP were utilized. The crude and multiple logistic regression adjusted odds ratios were used as measures of association. RESULTS: Females, Hispanics, overweight children, and children with AN had an increased likelihood of HBP. Overweight children (BMI ≥ 85(th )percentile) and those with AN were at least twice as likely to present with HBP after controlling for confounding factors. CONCLUSION: Twenty one percent of school children had HBP, especially the prevalence was higher among the overweight and Hispanic group. The association identified here can be used as independent markers for increased likelihood of HBP in children