The total assessment profile, volume 2

Appendices are presented which include discussions of interest formulas, factors in regionalization, parametric modeling of discounted benefit-sacrifice streams, engineering economic calculations, and product innovation. For Volume 1, see

The total assessment profile, volume 1

A methodology is described for the evaluation of societal impacts associated with the implementation of a new technology. Theoretical foundations for the methodology, called the total assessment profile, are established from both the economic and social science perspectives. The procedure provides for accountability of nonquantifiable factors and measures through the use of a comparative value matrix by assessing the impacts of the technology on the value system of the society

Systematic search for gamma-ray periodicity in active galactic nuclei detected by the Fermi Large Area Telescope

We use nine years of gamma-ray data provided by the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) to systematically study the light curves of more than two thousand active galactic nuclei (AGN) included in recent Fermi-LAT catalogs. Ten different techniques are used, which are organized in an automatic periodicity-search pipeline, in order to search for evidence of periodic emission in gamma rays. Understanding the processes behind this puzzling phenomenon will provide a better view about the astrophysical nature of these extragalactic sources. However, the observation of temporal patterns in gamma-ray light curves of AGN is still challenging. Despite the fact that there have been efforts on characterizing the temporal emission of some individual sources, a systematic search for periodicities by means of a full likelihood analysis applied to large samples of sources was missing. Our analysis finds 11 AGN, of which 9 are identified for the first time, showing periodicity at more than 4sigma in at least four algorithms. These findings will help in solving questions related to the astrophysical origin of this periodic behavior.Comment: 16 pages, 5 figures, 4 tables. Accepted by Ap

The Antares Neutrino Telescope and Multi-Messenger Astronomy

Antares is currently the largest neutrino telescope operating in the Northern Hemisphere, aiming at the detection of high-energy neutrinos from astrophysical sources. Such observations would provide important clues about the processes at work in those sources, and possibly help solve the puzzle of ultra-high energy cosmic rays. In this context, Antares is developing several programs to improve its capabilities of revealing possible spatial and/or temporal correlations of neutrinos with other cosmic messengers: photons, cosmic rays and gravitational waves. The neutrino telescope and its most recent results are presented, together with these multi-messenger programs.Comment: 10 pages, 7 figures. Proceedings of the 14th Gravitational Wave Data Analysis Workshop (GWDAW-14) in Roma - January 26th-29th, 201

Fermi-LAT Observations of High- and Intermediate-Velocity Clouds: Tracing Cosmic Rays in the Halo of the Milky Way

It is widely accepted that cosmic rays (CRs) up to at least PeV energies are Galactic in origin. Accelerated particles are injected into the interstellar medium where they propagate to the farthest reaches of the Milky Way, including a surrounding halo. The composition of CRs coming to the solar system can be measured directly and has been used to infer the details of CR propagation that are extrapolated to the whole Galaxy. In contrast, indirect methods, such as observations of gamma-ray emission from CR interactions with interstellar gas, have been employed to directly probe the CR densities in distant locations throughout the Galactic plane. In this article we use 73 months of data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope in the energy range between 300 MeV and 10 GeV to search for gamma-ray emission produced by CR interactions in several high- and intermediate-velocity clouds located at up to ~ 7 kpc above the Galactic plane. We achieve the first detection of intermediate-velocity clouds in gamma rays and set upper limits on the emission from the remaining targets, thereby tracing the distribution of CR nuclei in the halo for the first time. We find that the gamma-ray emissivity per H atom decreases with increasing distance from the plane at 97.5% confidence level. This corroborates the notion that CRs at the relevant energies originate in the Galactic disk. The emissivity of the upper intermediate-velocity Arch hints at a 50% decline of CR densities within 2 kpc from the plane. We compare our results to predictions of CR propagation models.Comment: Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journa

Searching for prompt signatures of nearby core-collapse supernovae by a joint analysis of neutrino and gravitational-wave data

We discuss the science motivations and prospects for a joint analysis of gravitational-wave (GW) and low-energy neutrino data to search for prompt signals from nearby supernovae (SNe). Both gravitational-wave and low-energy neutrinos are expected to be produced in the innermost region of a core-collapse supernova, and a search for coincident signals would probe the processes which power a supernova explosion. It is estimated that the current generation of neutrino and gravitational-wave detectors would be sensitive to Galactic core-collapse supernovae, and would also be able to detect electromagnetically dark SNe. A joint GW-neutrino search would enable improvements to searches by way of lower detection thresholds, larger distance range, better live-time coverage by a network of GW and neutrino detectors, and increased significance of candidate detections. A close collaboration between the GW and neutrino communities for such a search will thus go far toward realizing a much sought-after astrophysics goal of detecting the next nearby supernova.Comment: 10 pages, 3 figures. To appear in Class. Quantum Gra

Search for Early Gamma-ray Production in Supernovae Located in a Dense Circumstellar Medium with the Fermi LAT

Supernovae (SNe) exploding in a dense circumstellar medium (CSM) are hypothesized to accelerate cosmic rays in collisionless shocks and emit GeV gamma rays and TeV neutrinos on a time scale of several months. We perform the first systematic search for gamma-ray emission in Fermi LAT data in the energy range from 100 MeV to 300 GeV from the ensemble of 147 SNe Type IIn exploding in dense CSM. We search for a gamma-ray excess at each SNe location in a one year time window. In order to enhance a possible weak signal, we simultaneously study the closest and optically brightest sources of our sample in a joint-likelihood analysis in three different time windows (1 year, 6 months and 3 months). For the most promising source of the sample, SN 2010jl (PTF10aaxf), we repeat the analysis with an extended time window lasting 4.5 years. We do not find a significant excess in gamma rays for any individual source nor for the combined sources and provide model-independent flux upper limits for both cases. In addition, we derive limits on the gamma-ray luminosity and the ratio of gamma-ray-to-optical luminosity ratio as a function of the index of the proton injection spectrum assuming a generic gamma-ray production model. Furthermore, we present detailed flux predictions based on multi-wavelength observations and the corresponding flux upper limit at 95% confidence level (CL) for the source SN 2010jl (PTF10aaxf).Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ. Corresponding author: A. Franckowiak ([email protected]), updated author list and acknowledgement

A Search for MeV to TeV Neutrinos from Fast Radio Bursts with IceCube

We present two searches for IceCube neutrino events coincident with 28 fast radio bursts (FRBs) and 1 repeating FRB. The first improves on a previous IceCube analysis - searching for spatial and temporal correlation of events with FRBs at energies greater than roughly 50 GeV - by increasing the effective area by an order of magnitude. The second is a search for temporal correlation of MeV neutrino events with FRBs. No significant correlation is found in either search; therefore, we set upper limits on the time-integrated neutrino flux emitted by FRBs for a range of emission timescales less than one day. These are the first limits on FRB neutrino emission at the MeV scale, and the limits set at higher energies are an order-of-magnitude improvement over those set by any neutrino telescope

Efficient propagation of systematic uncertainties from calibration to analysis with the SnowStorm method in IceCube

Efficient treatment of systematic uncertainties that depend on a large number of nuisance parameters is a persistent difficulty in particle physics and astrophysics experiments. Where low-level effects are not amenable to simple parameterization or re-weighting, analyses often rely on discrete simulation sets to quantify the effects of nuisance parameters on key analysis observables. Such methods may become computationally untenable for analyses requiring high statistics Monte Carlo with a large number of nuisance degrees of freedom, especially in cases where these degrees of freedom parameterize the shape of a continuous distribution. In this paper we present a method for treating systematic uncertainties in a computationally efficient and comprehensive manner using a single simulation set with multiple and continuously varied nuisance parameters. This method is demonstrated for the case of the depth-dependent effective dust distribution within the IceCube Neutrino Telescope