La evaluación de los recursos hídricos en el Libro Blanco del Agua en España

[ES] En el presente artículo se describe brevemente el modelo hidrológico distribuido utilizado en el Libro Blanco del Agua en España para la evaluación de los recursos hídricos en régimen natural. Se tiene la intención de presentar en sucesivos números de esta Revista otros instrumentos o procedimientos específicamente desarrollados para el Libro Blanco que se estima pueden presentar interés técnico o científico. El objetivo de este artículo, y de los posibles artículos posteriores, es describir estos trabajos con un nivel de detalle propio de una revista especializada, que no se consideró procedente alcanzar en el Libro Blanco por su orientación eminentemente divulgativa.Se desea hacer una mención especial en este artículo a Javier Álvarez, del Centro de Estudios Hidrográficos del CEDEX, por su generosa dedicación a este trabajo, y a Andrés Sahuquillo, Catedrático del Departamento de Ingeniería Hidráulica y Medio Ambiente de la Universidad Politécnica de Valencia, por su colaboración en algunos aspectos de la modelación relacionados con las aguas subterráneas.Estrela Monreal, T.; Cabezas Calvo-Rubio, F.; Estrada Lorenzo, F. (1999). La evaluación de los recursos hídricos en el Libro Blanco del Agua en España. Ingeniería del Agua. 6(2):125-138. https://doi.org/10.4995/ia.1999.2781SWORD12513862Abbott, M.B.; Bathurst J.C. et al, (1986) An Introduction to the European hydrological System - System hydrologique european, SHE, 1: History and phylosophy of a phisically-based distributed modelling system. Journal of Hydrology, 87 (1986) 45-59.Burnash, R.J.C.; Ferral, R.L. and McGuire, R.A. (1973) A Generalized Streamflow Simulation System: Conceptual Modelling for Digital Computers U.S. Department of Commerce, California.Chairat, S. and J.W. Delleur, (1993) Integrating a phisically based hydrological model with GRASS. International Conference on application of GIS in hydrology and water resource management. HYDROGIS. IAHS Publication n° 211. Pages 143-150. Vienna.Crawford, N.A. and R.K. Linsley, (1966) Digital Simulation in hydrology; the Stanford Watershed Simulation Model IV. Technical Report no. 39. Department of Civil Engineering, Stanford University. Stanford. Calif.DHI. (1985) Introduction to the SHE. European Hydrologic System. Danish Hydraulic Institute.Estrela, T. y L. Quintas, (1996a) A distributed hydrological model for water resources assessment in large basins. Proceedings of 1st International Conference on Rivertech 96. IWRA. Vol 2, pp 861-868. Chicago, USA.Estrela, T. y Quintas, L., (1996b) El sistema integrado de modelización precipitación - aportación SIMPA. Revista de Ingeniería Civil, n° 104, páginas 43-52. CEDEX - Ministerio de Fomento, 1996MIMAM, (1998) El Libro Blanco del Agua en España. Ministerio de Medio Ambiente. Diciembre. Madrid, España.Ruiz, J.M., (1998) Desarrollo de un modelo hidrológico conceptual distribuido de simulación continua integrado con un SIG. Tesis doctoral. Universidad Politécnica de Valencia.Témez, J.R, (1977) Modelo matemático de transformación-Aportación. ASINEL.Van Deursen, J.C.J. Kwadijk, (1993) RHINEFLOW: an integrated GIS water balance model for the river Rhine W.P.A. International Conference on application of GIS in hydrology and water resource management. HYDROGIS. IAHS Publication n° 211. Pages 507-518. Vienn

Innovaciones y mejoras en el proyecto tutoría entre compañeros. Curso 2015-2016

Memoria ID-0137. Ayudas de la Universidad de Salamanca para la innovación docente, curso 2015-2016

Dietary α‐Linolenic Acid, Marine ω‐3 Fatty Acids, and Mortality in a Population With High Fish Consumption: Findings From the PREvención con DIeta MEDiterránea (PREDIMED) Study

Background: Epidemiological evidence suggests a cardioprotective role of α‐linolenic acid (ALA), a plant‐derived ω‐3 fatty acid. It is unclear whether ALA is beneficial in a background of high marine ω‐3 fatty acids (long‐chain n‐3 polyunsaturated fatty acids) intake. In persons at high cardiovascular risk from Spain, a country in which fish consumption is customarily high, we investigated whether meeting the International Society for the Study of Fatty Acids and Lipids recommendation for dietary ALA (0.7% of total energy) at baseline was related to all‐cause and cardiovascular disease mortality. We also examined the effect of meeting the society's recommendation for long‐chain n‐3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (≥500 mg/day). Methods and Results: We longitudinally evaluated 7202 participants in the PREvención con DIeta MEDiterránea (PREDIMED) trial. Multivariable‐adjusted Cox regression models were fitted to estimate hazard ratios. ALA intake correlated to walnut consumption (r=0.94). During a 5.9‐y follow‐up, 431 deaths occurred (104 cardiovascular disease, 55 coronary heart disease, 32 sudden cardiac death, 25 stroke). The hazard ratios for meeting ALA recommendation (n=1615, 22.4%) were 0.72 (95% CI 0.56–0.92) for all‐cause mortality and 0.95 (95% CI 0.58–1.57) for fatal cardiovascular disease. The hazard ratios for meeting the recommendation for long‐chain n‐3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (n=5452, 75.7%) were 0.84 (95% CI 0.67–1.05) for all‐cause mortality, 0.61 (95% CI 0.39–0.96) for fatal cardiovascular disease, 0.54 (95% CI 0.29–0.99) for fatal coronary heart disease, and 0.49 (95% CI 0.22–1.01) for sudden cardiac death. The highest reduction in all‐cause mortality occurred in participants meeting both recommendations (hazard ratio 0.63 [95% CI 0.45–0.87]). Conclusions: In participants without prior cardiovascular disease and high fish consumption, dietary ALA, supplied mainly by walnuts and olive oil, relates inversely to all‐cause mortality, whereas protection from cardiac mortality is limited to fish‐derived long‐chain n‐3 polyunsaturated fatty acids. Clinical Trial Registration URL: http://www.Controlled-trials.com/. Unique identifier: ISRCTN35739639

Análisis estructural de modelos hidrológicos y de sistemas de recursos hídricos en zonas semiáridas

El desarrollo de la modelación hidrológica ha experimentado un impulso extraordinario en las últimas décadas. Desde los primeros modelos conceptuales de la década de los 60 del pasado siglo hasta hoy no solo el número de modelos desarrollados es incontable, sino que sus tipologías se han multiplicado, sus aplicaciones prácticas se han extendido, y la propia teoría subyacente a la modelación ha sido objeto de avances sustanciales. En esta tesis nos centraremos, en primer lugar, en un tipo específico de esos modelos, los denominados modelos conceptuales de balance hídrico o de lluvia-escorrentía, que simulan de forma agregada la respuesta hidrológica de una cuenca a partir de las precipitaciones producidas, con el objetivo de realizar una aplicación masiva a numerosas cuencas españolas y estudiar su comportamiento estructural. Para ello, y tras una presentación general del ciclo hidrológico y sus procesos subyacentes desde la perspectiva de estos modelos, se describen algunos comúnmente utilizados mostrando en detalle sus principios básicos, ecuaciones descriptivas, parametrización empleada y condiciones de aplicación. Seguidamente se aborda el problema del análisis estructural, entendiendo por tal los aspectos relativos a la sensibilidad de los modelos, análisis de datos y perturbaciones, incertidumbres, problemas de identificabilidad, y validación de su funcionamiento. La descripción es autocontenida e incluye los desarrollos matemáticos necesarios para la comprensión de los conceptos y técnicas introducidos. Para poder aplicar estas técnicas se ha desarrollado una aplicación informática, que incorpora muchos de los modelos y técnicas descritas y permite aplicarlas a gran escala. Brevemente se describe esta aplicación, sus interfaces y los resultados proporcionados. Con este código se ha procedido a la aplicación práctica de la teoría a un extenso conjunto de cuencas españolas peninsulares, centrando la perspectiva en las singularidades y diferencias de los modelos, desde el punto de vista estructural, según el grado de aridez de las cuencas a las que se aplican. Se introducen los conceptos de regionalización y estabilidad estructurales dependientes de indicadores, adoptando como tal indicador la aridez de las cuencas. Las aplicaciones prácticas se completan con el estudio de perturbaciones aplicado a la evaluación de efectos del cambio climático mediante modelos conceptuales agregados. Tras estos análisis, puramente hidrológicos, la investigación se completa con una consideración teórica del posible efecto de la aridez y torrencialidad de las cuencas sobre el funcionamiento de los modelos de optimización y simulación aplicados a los sistemas de recursos hídricos, aplicándolo a un caso real concreto. Por último, se concluye con algunas consideraciones y posibles extensiones de las técnicas mostradas, orientadas a la modelación semidistribuida. El análisis ha mostrado la viabilidad de la aplicación práctica de estas metodologías, la posibilidad de mejorar la parametrización de los modelos, y que muchos resultados estructurales relativos a modelos de amplio uso son, en efecto, dependientes de la aridez de las cuencas a las que se aplican. La aridez no solo condiciona el valor esperable y rango admisible de sus parámetros, información de utilidad para acotar información requerida a priori, sino que también influye en sus niveles de correlación y, por tanto, su identificabilidad estructural. Asimismo se ha verificado que la aridez o irregularidad de flujos un territorio puede afectar a los resultados de los modelos de optimización y simulación de sistemas de recursos hídricos, al invalidar el supuesto de paso y captación mensual completa asumido por estos modelos. La importancia de esta afección depende de la configuración de estos sistemas y las características de sus caudales a escalas inframensuales como la diaria. Con igual objetivo de valorar efectos de la aridez, se ha analizado el efecto de la concentración subdiaria de las intensidades de lluvia sobre la infiltración a escala diaria, observando que el efecto puede ser significativo dependiendo de la textura del suelo y su humedad inicial. Finalmente se han apuntado algunos criterios o bases para la extensión de las técnicas mostradas a otras tipologías de modelos como los diarios o mensuales semidistribuidos, línea de gran interés práctico al permitir realizar evaluaciones de recursos a gran escala, en extensos territorios con numerosas estaciones, y contrastadas mediante calibración con datos observados en subcuencas aforadas, cuya extrapolación puede llevarse a cabo con las técnicas descritas. The development of hydrological modeling has experienced an extraordinary boost in recent decades. From the first conceptual models of the 60s of the last century until today, not only the number of developed models is countless, but their typologies have multiplied, their practical applications have been extended, and underlying theory to modeling has been the subject of substantial progress. This thesis will focus, firstly, in a specific type of those models, the so-called rainfall-runoff conceptual models of continuous water balance, simulating the hydrologic response of a basin, in order to carry out a massive application of several models to numerous Spanish basins, and study their structural behaviour. To do this, and after a general presentation of the hydrological cycle and its underlying processes from the perspective of these models, some of them commonly used are described in detail showing its basic principles, describing equations, parameterization used and application conditions. Then, the problem of structural analysis is discussed, including sensitivity of the models, data analysis and perturbations, uncertainties, identifiability problems, and validation of its operation. The description is self-contained and includes the mathematical developments needed for an understanding of the introduced concepts and techniques. To apply these techniques we developed a software that incorporates many of the models and techniques described, and allows a large-scale execution. The software interfaces and the results provided are briefly described. Using this software we proceeded to the practical application of the theory to an extensive set of Spanish basins, focusing perspective in singularities and differences of models, from a structural point of view, according to the degree of aridity of the considered basins. The concepts of regionalization and structural stability dependence on indicators are introduced, adopting as indicator the basin aridity. The practical applications are completed with the study through conceptual models of perturbations applied to the evaluation of effects of climate change on water resources. Following these purely hydrological issues, research is completed with a theoretical consideration of the possible effect of highly irregulars daily flow on the results of optimization and simulation models for water resources systems, with a monthly time step, and applying it to real case. Finally, we conclude with some considerations and possible extensions of the exposed techniques to semidistributed and daily new model under development. The analysis has shown the feasibility of the practical application of these methodologies, the possibility of improving the parametrization of the models, and many structural results for widely used models (structural identification matrix, covariances of parameter, eigenvalues, conditioned sensitivity, sensitivity ratio, etc.) that are in fact dependent on the aridity of the basins. Aridity not only determines the expected value and permissible range of parameters, useful information to narrow the a priori information required, but also it affects their levels of correlation and therefore structural identifiability. It has also been verified that the irregularity of daily flows, typical in semiarid areas, can affect the results of optimization and simulation models of water resources systems, due to invalidate the assumption of full monthly step diversion taken by these models. The importance of this effect depends on the configuration of the system and the flow characteristics at submonthly scales as daily. With the same objective of evaluating the effects of aridity, we analyzed the effect of intraday concentration of rainfall intensities on a daily scale infiltration, noting that the effect can be significant depending on the soil texture and initial water content. Finally we include some considerations for extend the techniques to other types of models such as daily or monthly semi-distributed using tessellation, line of great practical interest to enable water resource assessments on a large scale, in extensive territories with numerous gage stations. Model results can be contrasted by calibration with gauged watersheds, and parameter extrapolation can be carried out with the described techniques

Aplicación de técnicas de prospección geoeléctrica al estudio de la evolución de formas de drenaje y facies sedimentarias del cuaternario en el Valle del Alto Guadalentín

Con este trabajo se trata de ofrecer una primera idea acerca de la modificación de la morfología y trayectoria del drenaje, así como de la evolución de las facies sedimentarias del Cuaternario en el Valle Alto del Guadalentín (Murcia), partiendo para ello de la interpretación de varias campañas de geofísica que realizan en la zona una prospección geoeléctrica mediante S.E.V. El territorio estudiado (205 Km cuadrados, comprendidos entre los núcleos de Lorca y Puerto Lumbreras) se ubica sobre una fosa tectónica que cobija importantes espesores de materiales marinos del Mioceno medio y superior y, en menor proporción, del Plioceno y Cuaternario continental. Este último, cuya caracterización nos ocupa, reposa discordante sobre los materiales anteriormente indicados, y presenta espesor variable que puede llegar a alcanzar los 200 metros. La ausencia de cortes estratigráficos profundos, debido a la topografía llana a alcanzar los 200 metros. La ausencia de cortes estratigráficos profundos, debido a la topografía llana del territorio, pone además de manifiesto la utilidad de las técnicas ya mencionadas en la exploración de las características de este importante relleno cuaternario, cuya evolución ha estado netamente condicionada por los aportes de las ramblas de Nogalte y Béjar, y los propios del río Guadalentín. Palabras clave: Geofísica, cortes geoeléctricos, prospección, Cuaternario, Alto Guadalentín, facies sedimentarias, sistemas de drenaje, ramblas, evolución

Sustainability of irrigated agriculture with overexploited aquifers: The case of Segura basin (SE, Spain)

The structural water deficit suffered by the Segura basin in southern Spain trend toward unsustainability. The imbalance between the resources and the demand has been caused by the expansion of irrigated areas, the emergence of illegal new irrigated lands and pumping wells, the increase in energy cost and the bad management of water use rights by the public water administration. In addition, climate change and frequent drought in this semi-arid region aggravate the situation. As a consequence, many aquifers are overexploited. The region of Murcia has well-developed agri-food sector, which is a key factor in the regional economy. This sector accounts for 21.4% of the regional GDP, and Murcia also has an important tourism sector, so the overexploitation of the aquifers would concern production, exportation and agricultural development as well as the decline in the water level, environmental damage and water quality impairment. On the other hand, the fulfilment of the “good ecological status” objectives set by the Water Framework Directive, with a deadline of 2027, will be a difficult task for water managers. This study proposed a hydroeconomic model to obtain the cost of the overexploited aquifers in the Segura basin in order to decide on the feasibility of using groundwater for agriculture in situations of overexploitation. The results showed that the price paid by farmers for irrigation water in the year 2027 would be 0.53 €/m3 (i.e., annual spending of 180M€), which will involve 10% of the final agricultural crop production in the Region of Murcia. Alternative water sources are proposed to increase water supply security for farmers and to ensure the socio-economic and environmental sustainability of the basin. Finally, the methodology proposed would help to manage water use in other European Mediterranean basins under similar climatic, hydrological and agricultural conditions.Departamento de Ciencias Politécnicas, Universidad Católica de Murcia, EspañaFundación Instituto Euromediterráneo del Agua, Universidad de Murcia, EspañaInstituto Universitario del Agua y del Medio Ambiente, Universidad de Murcia, EspañaUnidad de Murcia, Instituto Geológico y Minero de España, EspañaDepartamento de Ecología e Hidrología, Universidad de Murcia, Españ

Calibration and spatial modelling of daily ET0 in semiarid areas using Hargreaves equation

©2018. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ This document is the Accepted version of a Published Work that appeared in final form in Earth Science Informatics. To access the final edited and published work see https://doi.org/10.1007/s12145-017-0327-1Evapotranspiration is difficult to measure and, when measured, its spatial variability is not usually taken into account. The recommended method to estimate evapotranspiration, Penman-Monteith FAO, requires variables not available in most weather stations. Simplified but less accurate methods, as Hargreaves equation, are normally used. Several approaches have been proposed to improve Hargreaves equation accuracy. In this work, 14 calibrations of the Hargreaves equation are compared. Three goodness of fit statistics were used to select the optimal, in terms of simplicity and accuracy. The best option was an annual linear regression. Its parameters were interpolated using regression-kriging combining Random Forest and Ordinary Kriging. Twelve easy to obtain ancillary variables were used as predictors. The same approach was used to interpolate Hargreaves and Penman-Monteith-FAO ET0 on a daily basis; the Hargreaves ET0 layers and the parameter layers were used to obtain calibrated ET0 estimations. To compare the spatial patterns of the three estimations the daily layers were integrated into annual layers. The results of the proposed calibration are much more similar to Penman-Monteith FAO results than those obtained with Hargreaves equation. The research was conducted in south-east Spain with 79 weather stations with data from 01/01/2003 to 31/12/2014

Innovaciones y mejorías en el proyecto Tutoría entre compañeros. Curso 2014-2015

Memoria ID-0160. Ayudas de la Universidad de Salamanca para la innovación docente, curso 2014-2015

Dietary α-linolenic acid, marine ω-3 fatty acids, and mortality in a population with high fish consumption: Findings from the PREvención con DIeta MEDiterránea (PREDIMED) Study

12 Páginas.-- 6 Tablas.-- 1 FiguraBackground-Epidemiological evidence suggests a cardioprotective role of α-linolenic acid (ALA), a plant-derived ω-3 fatty acid. It is unclear whether ALA is beneficial in a background of high marine ω-3 fatty acids (long-chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids) intake. In persons at high cardiovascular risk from Spain, a country in which fish consumption is customarily high, we investigated whether meeting the International Society for the Study of Fatty Acids and Lipids recommendation for dietary ALA (0.7% of total energy) at baseline was related to all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality. We also examined the effect of meeting the society's recommendation for long-chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (≥500 mg/day). Methods and Results-We longitudinally evaluated 7202 participants in the PREvención con DIeta MEDiterránea (PREDIMED) trial. Multivariable-adjusted Cox regressionmodels were fitted to estimate hazard ratios. ALA intake correlated towalnut consumption (r=0.94). During a 5.9-y follow-up, 431 deaths occurred (104 cardiovascular disease, 55 coronary heart disease, 32 sudden cardiac death, 25 stroke). The hazard ratios formeeting ALArecommendation (n=1615, 22.4%) were 0.72 (95% CI 0.56-0.92) for all-causemortality and 0.95 (95% CI 0.58-1.57) for fatal cardiovascular disease. The hazard ratios formeeting the recommendation for long-chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (n=5452, 75.7%) were 0.84 (95% CI 0.67-1.05) for all-causemortality, 0.61 (95% CI 0.39-0.96) for fatal cardiovascular disease, 0.54 (95% CI 0.29-0.99) for fatal coronary heart disease, and 0.49 (95% CI 0.22-1.01) for sudden cardiac death. The highest reduction in all-cause mortality occurred in participants meeting both recommendations (hazard ratio 0.63 [95% CI 0.45-0.87]). Conclusions-In participants without prior cardiovascular disease and high fish consumption, dietary ALA, supplied mainly by walnuts and olive oil, relates inversely to all-cause mortality, whereas protection from cardiac mortality is limited to fish-derived long-chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids.This study was funded in part by Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII) (Spanish Ministry of Economy) through grants RTIC G03/140, RTIC RD 06/0045, Centro Nacional de Investigaciones Cardiovasculares CNIC 06/2007, ISCIII FIS PS09/01292, the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (MICINN) AGL2010‐22319‐C03‐02 and AGL2009‐13906‐C02‐02, and an unrestricted grant from the California Walnut Commission. Sala‐Vila holds a Miguel Servet I fellowship from the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness through the ISCIII