A real-time Global Warming Index

We propose a simple real-time index of global human-induced warming and assess its robustness to uncertainties in climate forcing and short-term climate fluctuations. This index provides improved scientific context for temperature stabilisation targets and has the potential to decrease the volatility of climate policy. We quantify uncertainties arising from temperature observations, climate radiative forcings, internal variability and the model response. Our index and the associated rate of human-induced warming is compatible with a range of other more sophisticated methods to estimate the human contribution to observed global temperature change

Integrating attribution with adaptation for unprecedented future heatwaves

Citizens in many countries are now experiencing record-smashing heatwaves that were intensified due to anthropogenic climate change. Whether today’s most impactful heatwaves could have occurred in a pre-industrial climate, traditionally a central focus of attribution research, is fast becoming an obsolete question. The next frontier for attribution science is to inform adaptation decision-making in the face of unprecedented future heat

IPEM code of practice for high-energy photon therapy dosimetry based on the NPL absorbed dose calibration service

The 1990 code of practice (COP), produced by the IPSM (now the Institute of Physics and Engineering in Medicine, IPEM) and the UK National Physical Laboratory (NPL), gave instructions for determining absorbed dose to water for megavoltage photon (MV) radiotherapy beams (Lillicrap et al 1990). The simplicity and clarity of the 1990 COP led to widespread uptake and high levels of consistency in external dosimetry audits. An addendum was published in 2014 to include the non-conventional conditions in Tomotherapy units. However, the 1990 COP lacked detailed recommendations for calibration conditions, and the corresponding nomenclature, to account for modern treatment units with different reference fields, including small fields as described in IAEA TRS483 (International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) 2017, Vienna). This updated COP recommends the irradiation geometries, the choice of ionisation chambers, appropriate correction factors and the derivation of absorbed dose to water calibration coefficients, for carrying out reference dosimetry measurements on MV external beam radiotherapy machines. It also includes worked examples of application to different conditions. The strengths of the 1990 COP are retained: recommending the NPL2611 chamber type as secondary standard; the use of tissue phantom ratio (TPR) as the beam quality specifier; and NPL-provided direct calibration coefficients for the user's chamber in a range of beam qualities similar to those in clinical use. In addition, the formalism is now extended to units that cannot achieve the standard reference field size of 10 cm × 10 cm, and recommendations are given for measuring dose in non-reference conditions. This COP is designed around the service that NPL provides and thus it does not require the range of different options presented in TRS483, such as generic correction factors for beam quality. This approach results in a significantly simpler, more concise and easier to follow protocol

Changes to population-based emergence of climate change from CMIP5 to CMIP6

Abstract The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model ensemble projects climate change emerging soonest and most strongly at low latitudes, regardless of the emissions pathway taken. In terms of signal-to-noise (S/N) ratios of average annual temperatures, these models project earlier and stronger emergence under the Shared Socio-economic Pathways than the previous generation did under corresponding Representative Concentration Pathways. Spatial patterns of emergence also change between generations of models; under a high emissions scenario, mid-century S/N is lower than previous studies indicated in Central Africa, South Asia, and parts of South America, West Africa, East Asia, and Western Europe, but higher in most other populated areas. We show that these global and regional changes are caused by a combination of higher effective climate sensitivity in the CMIP6 ensemble, as well as changes to emissions pathways, component-wise effective radiative forcing, and region-scale climate responses between model generations. We also present the first population-weighted calculation of climate change emergence for the CMIP6 ensemble, quantifying the number of people exposed to increasing degrees of abnormal temperatures now and into the future. Our results confirm the expected inequity of climate change-related impacts in the decades between now and the 2050 target for net-zero emissions held by many countries. These findings underscore the importance of concurrent investments in both mitigation and adaptation.</jats:p

Population-based emergence of unfamiliar climates

Time of emergence, which characterizes when significant signals of climate change will emerge from existing variability, is a useful and increasingly common metric. However, a more useful metric for understanding future climate change in the context of past experience may be the ratio of climate signal to noise (S/N)—a measure of the amplitude of change expressed in terms of units of existing variability. Here, we present S/N projections in the context of emergent climates (termed ‘unusual’, ‘unfamiliar’ and ‘unknown’ by reference to an individual’s lifetime), highlighting sensitivity to future emissions scenarios and geographical and human groupings. We show how for large sections of the world’s population, and for several geopolitical international groupings, mitigation can delay the onset of ‘unknown’ or ‘unfamiliar’ climates by decades, and perhaps even beyond 2100. Our results demonstrate that the benefits of mitigation accumulate over several decades, a key metric of which is reducing S/N, or keeping climate as familiar as possible. A relationship is also identified between cumulative emissions and patterns of emergent climate signals. Timely mitigation will therefore provide the greatest benefits to those facing the earliest impacts, many of whom are alive now

Phosphorylated c-Src in the nucleus is associated with improved patient outcome in ER-positive breast cancer

Elevated c-Src protein expression has been shown in breast cancer and &lt;i&gt;in vitro&lt;/i&gt; evidence suggests a role in endocrine resistance. To investigate whether c-Src is involved in endocrine resistance, we examined the expression of both total and activated c-Src in human breast cancer specimens from a cohort of oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive tamoxifen-treated breast cancer patients. Tissue microarray technology was employed to analyse 262 tumour specimens taken before tamoxifen treatment. Immunohistochemistry using total c-Src and activated c-Src antibodies was performed. Kaplan–Meier survival curves were constructed and log-rank test were performed. High level of nuclear activated Src was significantly associated with improved overall survival (&lt;i&gt;P&lt;/i&gt;=0.047) and lower recurrence rates on tamoxifen (&lt;i&gt;P&lt;/i&gt;=0.02). Improved patient outcome was only seen with activated Src in the nucleus. Nuclear activated Src expression was significantly associated with node-negative disease and a lower NPI (&lt;i&gt;P&lt;/i&gt;&#60;0.05). On subgroup analysis, only ER-positive/progesterone receptor (PgR)-positive tumours were associated with improved survival (&lt;i&gt;P&lt;/i&gt;=0.004). This shows that c-Src activity is increased in breast cancer and that activated Src within the nucleus of ER-positive tumours predicts an improved outcome. In ER/PgR-positive disease, activated Src kinase does not appear to be involved in &lt;i&gt;de novo&lt;/i&gt; endocrine resistance. Further study is required in ER-negative breast cancer as this may represent a cohort in which it is associated with poor outcome

FAK acts as a suppressor of RTK-MAP kinase signalling in Drosophila melanogaster epithelia and human cancer cells

Receptor Tyrosine Kinases (RTKs) and Focal Adhesion Kinase (FAK) regulate multiple signalling pathways, including mitogen-activated protein (MAP) kinase pathway. FAK interacts with several RTKs but little is known about how FAK regulates their downstream signalling. Here we investigated how FAK regulates signalling resulting from the overexpression of the RTKs RET and EGFR. FAK suppressed RTKs signalling in Drosophila melanogaster epithelia by impairing MAPK pathway. This regulation was also observed in MDA-MB-231 human breast cancer cells, suggesting it is a conserved phenomenon in humans. Mechanistically, FAK reduced receptor recycling into the plasma membrane, which resulted in lower MAPK activation. Conversely, increasing the membrane pool of the receptor increased MAPK pathway signalling. FAK is widely considered as a therapeutic target in cancer biology; however, it also has tumour suppressor properties in some contexts. Therefore, the FAK-mediated negative regulation of RTK/MAPK signalling described here may have potential implications in the designing of therapy strategies for RTK-driven tumours

Oncogenic BRAF, unrestrained by TGFβ-receptor signalling, drives right-sided colonic tumorigenesis.

Right-sided (proximal) colorectal cancer (CRC) has a poor prognosis and a distinct mutational profile, characterized by oncogenic BRAF mutations and aberrations in mismatch repair and TGFβ signalling. Here, we describe a mouse model of right-sided colon cancer driven by oncogenic BRAF and loss of epithelial TGFβ-receptor signalling. The proximal colonic tumours that develop in this model exhibit a foetal-like progenitor phenotype (Ly6a/Sca1+) and, importantly, lack expression of Lgr5 and its associated intestinal stem cell signature. These features are recapitulated in human BRAF-mutant, right-sided CRCs and represent fundamental differences between left- and right-sided disease. Microbial-driven inflammation supports the initiation and progression of these tumours with foetal-like characteristics, consistent with their predilection for the microbe-rich right colon and their antibiotic sensitivity. While MAPK-pathway activating mutations drive this foetal-like signature via ERK-dependent activation of the transcriptional coactivator YAP, the same foetal-like transcriptional programs are also initiated by inflammation in a MAPK-independent manner. Importantly, in both contexts, epithelial TGFβ-receptor signalling is instrumental in suppressing the tumorigenic potential of these foetal-like progenitor cells

Trade-offs in linking adaptation and mitigation in the forests of the Congo Basin

Recent discussions on forests and climate change have highlighted the potential for conservation of tropical forests to contribute synergistically to both mitigation (reducing emissions of greenhouse gases) and adaptation (increasing capacity to cope with changing climate conditions). Key mechanisms through which adaptive advantages might be gained include the potential for forest resources to support livelihoods in the context of climatic strains on agriculture and the protection that intact forest ecosystems might provide against landslides, flash floods and other hazards related to extreme weather. This paper presents findings from field research with forest communities in three areas of the Congo Basin in Central Africa, in which the adaptive role and potential of forests in these respects is critically analysed. The investigation was carried out through a combination of structured and semi-structured qualitative techniques within six villages in Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea and Rwanda. The findings of the research highlight the need to understand both the limits of synergy, and the constraints and trade-offs for rural livelihoods that may be associated with a forest conservation agenda driven by the additional impetus of carbon sequestration. The search for synergy may be conceptually laudable, but if forest management actions do not take account of on-the-ground contexts of constraints and social trade-offs then the result of those actions risks undermining wider livelihood resilience

ST3 beta-galactoside alpha-2,3-sialyltransferase 1 (ST3Gal1) synthesis of Siglec ligands mediates anti-tumour immunity in prostate cancer

\ua9 The Author(s) 2024.Immune checkpoint blockade has yet to produce robust anti-cancer responses for prostate cancer. Sialyltransferases have been shown across several solid tumours, including breast, melanoma, colorectal and prostate to promote immune suppression by synthesising sialoglycans, which act as ligands for Siglec receptors. We report that ST3 beta-galactoside alpha-2,3-sialyltransferase 1 (ST3Gal1) levels negatively correlate with androgen signalling in prostate tumours. We demonstrate that ST3Gal1 plays an important role in modulating tumour immune evasion through the synthesises of sialoglycans with the capacity to engage the Siglec-7 and Siglec-9 immunoreceptors preventing immune clearance of cancer cells. Here, we provide evidence of the expression of Siglec-7/9 ligands and their respective immunoreceptors in prostate tumours. These interactions can be modulated by enzalutamide and may maintain immune suppression in enzalutamide treated tumours. We conclude that the activity of ST3Gal1 is critical to prostate cancer anti-tumour immunity and provide rationale for the use of glyco-immune checkpoint targeting therapies in advanced prostate cancer