INTERIM REPORT IMPROVED METHODS FOR INCORPORATING RISK IN DECISION MAKING

This paper reports observations and preliminary investigations in the first phase of a research program covering methodologies for making safety-related decisions. The objective has been to gain insight into NRC perceptions of the value of formal decision methods, their possible applications, and how risk is, or may be, incorporated in decision making. The perception of formal decision making techniques, held by various decision makers, and what may be done to improve them, were explored through interviews with NRC staff. An initial survey of decision making methods, an assessment of the applicability of formal methods vis-a-vis the available information, and a review of methods of incorporating risk and uncertainty have also been conducted

Stability of Attachment Style in Adolescence: An Empirical Test of Alternative Developmental Processes

This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Jones, J.D., Fraley, R.C., Ehrlich, K.B., Stern, J.A., Lejuez, C.W., Shaver, P.R. and Cassidy, J. (2018), Stability of Attachment Style in Adolescence: An Empirical Test of Alternative Developmental Processes. Child Dev, 89: 871-880., which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1111/cdev.12775 . This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions. This article may not be enhanced, enriched or otherwise transformed into a derivative work, without express permission from Wiley or by statutory rights under applicable legislation. Copyright notices must not be removed, obscured or modified. The article must be linked to Wiley’s version of record on Wiley Online Library and any embedding, framing or otherwise making available the article or pages thereof by third parties from platforms, services and websites other than Wiley Online Library must be prohibited.Few studies have examined stability and change in attachment during adolescence. This 5-year longitudinal study (a) examined whether prototype or revisionist developmental dynamics better characterized patterns of stability and change in adolescent attachment (at T1, N = 176; M age = 14.0 years, SD = 0.9), (b) tested potential moderators of prototype-like attachment stability, and (c) compared attachment stability in adolescence to stability in adulthood. The results supported the prototype model, which assumes that there is a stable, enduring factor underlying stability and change in attachment. Exploratory moderation analyses revealed that family conflict, parental separation or divorce, minority status, and male sex might undermine the prototype-like stability of adolescent attachment. Stability of attachment was lower in adolescence relative to adulthood.https://doi.org/10.1111/cdev.1277

Development and Validation of the Behavioral Tendencies Questionnaire

At a fundamental level, taxonomy of behavior and behavioral tendencies can be described in terms of approach, avoid, or equivocate (i.e., neither approach nor avoid). While there are numerous theories of personality, temperament, and character, few seem to take advantage of parsimonious taxonomy. The present study sought to implement this taxonomy by creating a questionnaire based on a categorization of behavioral temperaments/tendencies first identified in Buddhist accounts over fifteen hundred years ago. Items were developed using historical and contemporary texts of the behavioral temperaments, described as “Greedy/Faithful”, “Aversive/Discerning”, and “Deluded/Speculative”. To both maintain this categorical typology and benefit from the advantageous properties of forced-choice response format (e.g., reduction of response biases), binary pairwise preferences for items were modeled using Latent Class Analysis (LCA). One sample (n1 = 394) was used to estimate the item parameters, and the second sample (n2 = 504) was used to classify the participants using the established parameters and cross-validate the classification against multiple other measures. The cross-validated measure exhibited good nomothetic span (construct-consistent relationships with related measures) that seemed to corroborate the ideas present in the original Buddhist source documents. The final 13-block questionnaire created from the best performing items (the Behavioral Tendencies Questionnaire or BTQ) is a psychometrically valid questionnaire that is historically consistent, based in behavioral tendencies, and promises practical and clinical utility particularly in settings that teach and study meditation practices such as Mindfulness Based Stress Reduction (MBSR)

Visualization of Genomic Changes by Segmented Smoothing Using an L0 Penalty

Copy number variations (CNV) and allelic imbalance in tumor tissue can show strong segmentation. Their graphical presentation can be enhanced by appropriate smoothing. Existing signal and scatterplot smoothers do not respect segmentation well. We present novel algorithms that use a penalty on the norm of differences of neighboring values. Visualization is our main goal, but we compare classification performance to that of VEGA

Preheat Effects on Microballoon Laser-Fusion Implosions

Nonequilibrium hydroburn simulations of early laser-driven compression experiments indicate that low energy photons from the vicinity of the ablation surface are preheating the microballoon-pushers, thereby severely limiting the compressions achieved (similar degradation may result from 1 to 4 percent energy deposition by superthermal electrons). This implies an 8- to 27-fold increase in the energy requirements for breakeven, unless radiative preheat can be drastically reduced by, say, the use of composite ablator-pushers. (auth

Adult attachment styles and the psychological response to infant bereavement

Background: Based on Bowlby's attachment theory, Bartholomew proposed a four-category attachment typology by which individuals judged themselves and adult relationships. This explanatory model has since been used to help explain the risk of psychiatric comorbidity. Objective: The current study aimed to identify attachment typologies based on Bartholomew's attachment styles in a sample of bereaved parents on dimensions of closeness/dependency and anxiety. In addition, it sought to assess the relationship between the resultant attachment typology with a range of psychological trauma variables. Method: The current study was based on a sample of 445 bereaved parents who had experienced either peri- or post-natal death of an infant. Adult attachment was assessed using the Revised Adult Attachment Scale (RAAS) while reaction to trauma was assessed using the Trauma Symptom Checklist (TSC). A latent profile analysis was conducted on scores from the RAAS closeness/dependency and anxiety subscales to ascertain if there were underlying homogeneous attachment classes. Emergent classes were used to determine if these were significantly different in terms of mean scores on TSC scales. Results: A four-class solution was considered the optimal based on fit statistics and interpretability of the results. Classes were labelled “Fearful,” “Preoccupied,” “Dismissing,” and “Secure.” Females were almost eight times more likely than males to be members of the fearful attachment class. This class evidenced the highest scores across all TSC scales while the secure class showed the lowest scores. Conclusions: The results are consistent with Bartholomew's four-category attachment styles with classes representing secure, fearful, preoccupied, and dismissing types. While the loss of an infant is a devastating experience for any parent, securely attached individuals showed the lowest levels of psychopathology compared to fearful, preoccupied, or dismissing attachment styles. This may suggest that a secure attachment style is protective against trauma-related psychological distress

Calibrating ensemble reliability whilst preserving spatial structure

Ensemble forecasts aim to improve decision-making by predicting a set of possible outcomes. Ideally, these would provide probabilities which are both sharp and reliable. In practice, the models, data assimilation and ensemble perturbation systems are all imperfect, leading to deficiencies in the predicted probabilities. This paper presents an ensemble post-processing scheme which directly targets local reliability, calibrating both climatology and ensemble dispersion in one coherent operation. It makes minimal assumptions about the underlying statistical distributions, aiming to extract as much information as possible from the original dynamic forecasts and support statistically awkward variables such as precipitation. The output is a set of ensemble members preserving the spatial, temporal and inter-variable structure from the raw forecasts, which should be beneficial to downstream applications such as hydrological models. The calibration is tested on three leading 15-d ensemble systems, and their aggregation into a simple multimodel ensemble. Results are presented for 12 h, 1° scale over Europe for a range of surface variables, including precipitation. The scheme is very effective at removing unreliability from the raw forecasts, whilst generally preserving or improving statistical resolution. In most cases, these benefits extend to the rarest events at each location within the 2-yr verification period. The reliability and resolution are generally equivalent or superior to those achieved using a Local Quantile-Quantile Transform, an established calibration method which generalises bias correction. The value of preserving spatial structure is demonstrated by the fact that 3×3 averages derived from grid-scale precipitation calibration perform almost as well as direct calibration at 3×3 scale, and much better than a similar test neglecting the spatial relationships. Some remaining issues are discussed regarding the finite size of the output ensemble, variables such as sea-level pressure which are very reliable to start with, and the best way to handle derived variables such as dewpoint depression