Risk aversion and Uncertainty in European Sovereign Bond Markets

Risk aversion and uncertainty are often both at play in market price determination, but it is empirically challenging to disentangle one from the other. In this paper we set up a theoretical model particularly suited for opaque over-the-counter markets that is shown to be empirically tractable. Based on high frequency data, we thus propose an evaluation of risk aversion and uncertainty inherent to the government bond markets in the euro area between 2007 and 2011. We particularly examine the impact of the European Central Bank Securities Markets Programme [SMP] implemented in May 2010 and re- activated in August 2011 to ease the pressure on the European sovereign bond markets. We show how this programme has killed market uncertainty but raised risk aversion for all countries except Greece in a risk-pooling mechanism: this can therefore weaken the impact of market interventions over the long-term.MES, systemic risk, tail correlation, balance sheet ratios, panel.

The role of elasticity in slab bending

International audiencePrevious studies showed that plate rheology exerts a dominant control on the shape and velocity of subducting plates. Here, we perform a systematic investigation of the role of elasticity in slab bending, using fully dynamic 2-D models where an elastic, viscoelastic, or viscoelastoplastic plate subducts freely into a purely viscous mantle. We derive a scaling relationship between the bending radius of viscoelastic slabs and the Deborah number, De, which is the ratio of Maxwell time over deformation time. We show that De controls the ratio of elastically stored energy over viscously dissipated energy and find that at De>10-2, substantially less energy is required to bend a viscoelastic slab to the same shape as a purely viscous slab with the same intrinsic viscosity. Elastically stored energy at higher De favors retreating modes of subduction via unbending, while trench advance only occurs for some cases with De 1, where most zones have low De 0.1. Slabs with De<10-2 either have very low viscosities or they may be yielding, in which case our De estimates may be underestimated by up to an order of magnitude, potentially pointing towards a significant role of elasticity in ∼60% of the subduction zones. In support of such a role of elasticity in subduction, we find that increasing De correlates with increasing proportion of larger seismic events in both instrumental and historic catalogues

MIMAC: MIcro-tpc MAtrix of Chambers for dark matter directional detection

Directional detection of non-baryonic Dark Matter is a promising search strategy for discriminating WIMP events from neutrons, the ultimate background for dark matter direct detection. This strategy requires both a precise measurement of the energy down to a few keV and 3D reconstruction of tracks down to a few mm. The MIMAC (MIcro-tpc MAtrix of Chambers) collaboration has developed in the last years an original prototype detector based on the direct coupling of large pixelized micromegas with a special developed fast self-triggered electronics showing the feasibility of a new generation of directional detectors. The first bi-chamber prototype has been installed at Modane, underground laboratory in June 2012. The first undergournd background events, the gain stability and calibration are shown. The first spectrum of nuclear recoils showing 3D tracks coming from the radon progeny is presented.Comment: Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Directional Dark Matter Detection CYGNUS2013, held in Toyoma (Japan), June 201

MIMAC : A micro-tpc matrix for directional detection of dark matter

Directional detection of non-baryonic Dark Matter is a promising search strategy for discriminating WIMP events from background. However, this strategy requires both a precise measurement of the energy down to a few keV and 3D reconstruction of tracks down to a few mm. To achieve this goal, the MIMAC project has been developed. It is based on a gaseous micro-TPC matrix, filled with CF4 and CHF3. The first results on low energy nuclear recoils (H, F) obtained with a low mono-energetic neutron field are presented. The discovery potential of this search strategy is discussed and illustrated by a realistic case accessible to MIMAC.Comment: 6 pages, Proc. of the fifth international symposium on large TPCs for low energy rare event detection, Paris, France, Dec. 2010. To appear in Journal of Physic

Evolution and dynamics of the open‑vent eruption at Arenal volcano (Costa Rica, 1968–2010): what we learned and perspectives

On 29 July 1968, there was a violent reactivation of Arenal volcano. The resulting westward-directed lateral blast eruption left two villages destroyed and 78 people dead. The activity continued as a long-lasting, open-vent eruption that evolved into seven recognisable phases refecting changes in magma supply, explosive activity and cone evolution, and ended in October 2010. Here, we review this activity, the geophysical approaches applied to understanding it and the open questions resulting from these insights. The eruptive dynamics were characterised by almost constant lava efusion, degassing, strombolian and vulcanian explosions and infrequent pyroclastic density currents. In this study, the total rock dense equivalent volume of lava and tephra erupted is calculated at 757±77 Mm3, while the volume of the lava fow feld is 527±58 Mm3. Typical seismic activity included harmonic and spasmodic tremors, long-period events and explosion signals with frequent audible “booms”. The decline of the eruptive activity started in 2000, with a decrease in the number and size of explosive events, a shift from long to short lava flows along with the collapse of lava fow fronts and the subsequent formation of downward-rolling lava block aprons, the frequent growth of dome-like structures on the summit and a gradual decrease in seismic energy. Multiple geological and geophysical studies during this 42-year-long period of open-vent activity at Arenal resulted in many advances in understanding the dynamics of andesitic blocky lava fows, the origin and diversity of pyroclastic density currents and seismic sources, as well as the role of site efects and rough topography in modifying the seismic wavefeld. The acoustic measurements presented here include two types of events: typical explosions and small pressure transients. Features of the latter type are not usually observed at volcanoes with intermediate to evolved magma composition. Explosions have diferent waveforms and larger gas volumes than pressure transients, both types being associated with active and passive degassing, respectively. This body of data, results and knowledge can inform on the type of activity, and associated geophysical signals, of open-vent systems that are active for decades.El 29 de julio de 1968 se produjo una violenta reactivación del volcán Arenal. La explosión lateral dirigida hacia el oeste dejó dos pueblos destruidos y 78 personas muertas. La actividad continuó como una erupción de larga duración a conducto abierto que evolucionó en siete fases reconocibles, las cuales reflejaron cambios en el suministro de magma, la actividad explosiva y la evolución del cono, y terminó en octubre de 2010. Aquí revisamos esta actividad, los enfoques geofísicos aplicados para entenderla, y las preguntas abiertas que resultan de este conocimiento. La dinámica eruptiva se caracterizó por una efusión de lava casi constante, desgasificación, explosiones estrombolianas y vulcanianas, e infrecuentes corrientes de densidad piroc- lástica. En este estudio, el volumen total de lava y tefra erupcionada en equivalente de roca densa se calcula en 757 ± 77 Mm3 , mientras que el volumen del campo de lavas es de 527 ± 58 Mm3 . La actividad sísmica típica incluía tremores armónicos y espasmódicos, eventos de largo periodo y señales de explosión con frecuentes bums audibles. El declive de la actividad eruptiva comenzó en el año 2000, con una disminución del número y el tamaño de los eventos explosivos, un cambio de coladas de lava largas a cortas, junto con el colapso de los frentes de colada de lava y la subsiguiente formación de abanicos de bloques de lava que se desplazaban ladera abajo, el crecimiento frecuente de estructuras tipo domo en la cima, y una disminución gradual de la energía sísmica. Los múltiples estudios geológicos y geofísicos realizados durante este período de 42 años de actividad a conducto abierto en el Arenal, dieron lugar a muchos avances en la comprensión de la dinámica de las coladas de lava blocosas andesíticas, el origen y la diversidad de las corrientes de densidad piroclástica y las fuentes sísmicas, así como el papel de los efectos de sitio sísmicos y la topografía accidentada en la modificación del campo de ondas sísmicas. Las mediciones acústicas presentadas aquí incluyen dos tipos de eventos: explosiones típicas y pequeños transitorios de presión. Las características de este último tipo no suelen observarse en volcanes con una composición de magma intermedia o evolucionada. Las explosiones tienen formas de onda diferentes y volúmenes de gas mayores que los transitorios de presión, y ambos tipos están asociados con la desgasificación activa y pasiva, respectivamente. Este conjunto de datos, resultados y conocimientos puede enseñarnos sobre el tipo de actividad y las señales geofísicas asociadas, de los sistemas a conducto abierto que permanecen activos durante décadas.Institut de Physique du Globe de ParisUniversidad de Costa Rica///Costa RicaUCR::Vicerrectoría de Docencia::Ciencias Básicas::Facultad de Ciencias::Escuela Centroamericana de Geologí

The seismic signature of Upper‐Mantle Plumes: application to the Northern East African Rift

Several seismic and numerical studies proposed that below, some hotspots upper‐mantle plumelets rise from a thermal boundary layer below 660 km depth, fed by a deeper plume source. We recently found tomographic evidence of multiple upper‐mantle upwellings, spaced by several 100 km, rising through the transition zone below the northern East African Rift. To better test this interpretation, we run 3‐D numerical simulations of mantle convection for Newtonian and non‐Newtonian rheologies, for both thermal instabilities rising from a lower boundary layer, and the destabilization of a thermal anomaly placed at the base of the box (700–800 km depth). The thermal structures are converted to seismic velocities using a thermodynamic approach. Resolution tests are then conducted for the same P and S data distribution and inversion parameters as our traveltime tomography. The Rayleigh Taylor models predict simultaneous plumelets in different stages of evolution rising from a hot layer located below the transition zone, resulting in seismic structure that looks more complex than the simple vertical cylinders that are often anticipated. From the wide selection of models tested, we find that the destabilization of a 200 °C, 100 km thick thermal anomaly with a non‐Newtonian rheology, most closely matches the magnitude and the spatial and temporal distribution of the anomalies below the rift. Finally, we find that for reasonable upper‐mantle viscosities, the synthetic plume structures are similar in scale and shape to the actual low‐velocity anomalies, providing further support for the existence of upper‐mantle plumelets below the northern East African Rift

Micromegas detector developments for MIMAC

The aim of the MIMAC project is to detect non-baryonic Dark Matter with a directional TPC. The recent Micromegas efforts towards building a large size detector will be described, in particular the characterization measurements of a prototype detector of 10 $\times$ 10 cm$^2$ with a 2 dimensional readout plane. Track reconstruction with alpha particles will be shown.Comment: 8 pages, 7 figures Proceedings of the 3rd International conference on Directional Detection of Dark Matter (CYGNUS 2011), Aussois, France, 8-10 June 2011; corrections on author affiliation