On Predictability of Revisioning in Corporate Cash Flow Forecasting

Financial services within corporations usually are part of an information system on which many business functions depend. As of the importance of forecast quality for financial services, means of forecast accuracy improvement, such as data-driven statistical prediction techniques and/or forecast support systems, have been subject to IS research since decades. In this paper we consider means of forecast improvement due to regular patterns in forecast revisioning. We analyze how business forecasts are adjusted to exploit possible improvements for the accuracy of forecasts with lower lead time. The empirical part bases on an unique dataset of experts\u27 cash flow forecasts and accountants\u27 actuals realizations of companies in a global corporation. We find that direction and magnitude of the final revision in aggregated forecasts can be related to suggested targets in earnings management, providing the means of improving the accuracy of longer-term cash flow forecasts

A Special, Modified, Double-Lumen Tube for One-Lung Ventilation in Pigs

Animal studies in pigs often depend in thoracic anaesthesia on effective lung separation. In this report we describe the use of a modified double-lumen endotracheal tube for one-lung or differential lung ventilation in pigs resulting in excellent lung separation and unimpaired hypoxic pulmonary vasoconstriction

Relating Cash Flow Forecast Errors to Revision Patterns

Our study closes a research gap on cash flow revisions in large, multinational corporations. Specifically, we explore how revisions relate to forecast accuracy and how patterns in revision processes can be quantified and leveraged to reduce prediction errors in forecasts of foreign exchange exposure. We suggest novel metrics to determine patterns in revision processes related to the concentration of revision volume and show that these measures have higher explanatory power with regard to how forecast error is related to forecast revisions (point in time, volume) and exposure than previously used measures solely relying on correlations among revisions and error. Our results suggest that accounting for these patterns improves the accuracy of foreign exchange exposure forecasts

Decision Support Services Based on Dynamic Digital Analyses : Quality Metrics for Financial Planning Processes

Decision making in corporate financial controlling is typically based on the aggregation of huge data sets of financial planning items stemming from a multitude of companies with heterogeneous financial planning processes and planning quality. Quality of financial planning is usually quantified by its outcome using accepted ex-post metrics such as planning accuracy or alternative derivatives of plan versus actual distances (planning errors). However, additional metrics for measuring the quality of the planning processes themselves are mandatory. First, controllers want to determine suspicious planning data and revisions that will likely result in huge planning errors. Second, the determination of flawed planning processes allows for more profound root cause analysis of poor planning accuracy. Unfortunately, nowadays controllers have little guidance on how to assess running planning processes. This is particularly true because of the complex data structure in financial planning processes often underlying unknown assumptions and dynamics. This papers discusses two ex-ante candidate-metrics for measuring the quality of financial planning, namely Benford’s Law and weak planning data efficiency. Both measures are applied to multi-year financial planning data from set of over hundred enterprises. The outcomes of numerical analysis are presented and first managerial implications regarding decision support are drawn

The added value of cerebral imaging in patients with pyogenic spinal infection

Background: The incidence of pyogenic spinal infection has increased in recent years. In addition to treatment of the spinal infection, early diagnosis and therapy of coexisting infections, especially of secondary brain infection, are important. The aim of this study is to elucidate the added value of routine cerebral imaging in the management of these patients. Methods: This was a retrospective single-center study. Cerebral imaging consisting of cerebral magnetic resonance imaging (cMRI) was performed to detect brain infection in patients with a primary pyogenic spinal infection. Results: We analyzed a cohort of 61 patients undergoing cerebral imaging after diagnosis of primary pyogenic spinal infection. The mean age in this cohort was 68.7 years and the gender distribution consisted of 44 males and 17 females. Spinal epidural abscess was proven in 32 (52.4%) patients. Overall positive blood culture was obtained in 29 (47.5%) patients, infective endocarditis was detected in 23 (37.7%) patients and septic condition at admission was present in 12 (19.7%) Patients. Coexisting brain infection was detected in 2 (3.3%) patients. Both patients revealed clinical signs of severe sepsis, reduced level of consciousness (GCS score 3), were intubated, and died due to multi-organ failure. Conclusions: Brain infection in patients with spinal infection is very rare. Of 61 patients with pyogenic spinal infection, two patients had signs of cerebral infection shown by imaging, both of whom were in a coma (GCS 3), and sepsis

Early versus delayed surgery for spinal epidural abscess : clinical outcome and health-related quality of life

Objective: Spinal epidural abscess (SEA) is a severe and life-threatening disease. Although commonly performed, the effect of timing in surgical treatment on patient outcome is still unclear. With this study, we aim to provide evidence for early surgical treatment in patients with SEA. Methods: Patients treated for SEA in the authors' department between 2007 and 2016 were included for analysis and retrospectively analyzed for basic clinical parameters and outcome. Pre- and postoperative neurological status were assessed using the American Spinal Injury Association Impairment Scale (AIS). The self-reported quality of life (QOL) based on the Short-Form Health Survey 36 (SF-36) was assessed prospectively. Surgery was defined as "early", when performed within 12 hours after admission and "late" when performed thereafter. Conservative therapy was preferred and recommend in patients without neurological deficits and in patients denying surgical intervention. Results: One hundred and twenty-three patients were included in this study. Forty-nine patients (39.8%) underwent early, 47 patients (38.2%) delayed surgery and 27 (21.9%) conservative therapy. No significant differences were observed regarding mean age, sex, diabetes, prior history of spinal infection, and bony destruction. Patients undergoing early surgery revealed a significant better clinical outcome before discharge than patients undergoing late surgery (p=0.001) and conservative therapy. QOL based on SF-36 were significantly better in the early surgery cohort in two of four physical items (physical functioning and bodily pain) and in one of four psychological items (role limitation) after a mean follow-up period of 58 months. Readmission to the hospital and failure of conservative therapy were observed more often in patients undergoing conservative therapy. Conclusion: Our data on both clinical outcome and QOL provide evidence for early surgery within 12 hours after admission in patients with SEA

"I Sing the body electric". Body, Voice, Technology and Religion

In his controversial poem “I Sing the Body Electric”, Walt Whitman glorified the human body in all its forms. The world according to Whitman is physical and sensual. Bodies are our fundamental way of being – being in the here and now, being in time and space. Bodies we have and bodies we are are as much sensed, felt, experienced, seen, or heard as they are material objects.2 As bodies, we are in space, and through our bodies, their processes, their practices, their skills, we leave traces in space and time and extend ourselves in space. Bodies that extend and reach out and communicate through voice, as well as how voice materialises the immaterial, was the topic of a colloquium, “I Sing the Body Electric”, held at the University of Hull, United Kingdom, in 2014, which in turn inspired the following special issue of the Journal for Religion, Film and Media (JRFM). Following on from the colloquium’s inspiration, this JRFM issue is dedicated to the interrelation between religion, body, technology, and voice and its analysis from an interdisciplinary perspective using approaches from musicology, philosophy, and religious studies

Characterization of the seven-day course of pulmonary response following unilateral lung acid injury in rats

<div><p>Background</p><p>Aspiration of gastric acid is an important cause of acute lung injury. The time course of the pulmonary response to such an insult beyond the initial 48 hours is incompletely characterized. The purpose of this study was to comprehensively describe the pulmonary effects of focal lung acid injury over a seven day period in both directly injured and not directly injured lung tissue.</p><p>Methods</p><p>Male Wistar rats underwent left-endobronchial instillation with hydrochloric acid and were sacrificed at 4, 24, 48, 96 or 168 h after the insult. Healthy non-injured animals served as controls. We assessed inflammatory cell counts and cytokine levels in right and left lung lavage fluid and blood, arterial oxygen tension, alterations in lung histology, lung wet-to-dry weight ratio and differential lung perfusion.</p><p>Results</p><p>Lung acid instillation induced an early strong inflammatory response in the directly affected lung, peaking at 4–24 hours, with only partial resolution after 7 days. A less severe response with complete resolution after 4 days was seen in the opposite lung. Alveolar cytokine levels, with exception of IL-6, only partially reflected the localization of lung injury and the time course of the functional and histologic alterations. Alveolar leucocyte subpopulations exhibited different time courses in the acid injured lung with persistent elevation of alveolar lymphocytes and macrophages. After acid instillation there was an early transient decrease in arterial oxygen tension and lung perfusion was preferentially distributed to the non-injured lung.</p><p>Conclusion</p><p>These findings provide a basis for further research in the field of lung acid injury and for studies exploring effects of mechanical ventilation on injured lungs. Incomplete recovery in the directly injured lung 7 days after acid instillation suggests that increased vulnerability and susceptibility to further noxious stimuli are still present at that time.</p></div