Applying potential BECCS solutions to the US coal sector: New coal boom or bust?

Coal-fired plants have been the pillar of US power generation for more than a century, still contributing nearly 40 percent to U.S. electricity supply and accounting for about a third of national CO2 emissions. Nevertheless, coal\u27s dominance in the United States is waning, mainly because new emissions regulations are changing the economics of power generation, making coal uneconomical in some areas. At the same time, according to recent scenarios of energy transition, coal will continue to play a large and indispensable role in a carbon constrained world. Indeed, the challenge for governments and industry is to find a path that mitigates carbon emissions yet continues to utilize coal to meet urgent energy needs. Biomass coupled with post-combustion carbon capture and storage (BECCS) could play an important role in deeply cutting CO2 emissions from existing coal-fired power plants. However, adding existing commercial sequestration systems to pulverized coal power plants might significantly increase the cost of electricity and lead to energy penalty. Thus, the feasibility of CCS retrofit should be evaluated on a site-specific basis so to account for varying unit characteristics. Under such premises, the main goal of this work is to identify candidate coal plants for which CCS options might be economically feasible considering different policy scenarios (e.g. increasing carbon prices) and given the presence of site specific constraints (e.g. plant maturity, biomass availability and proximity of a suitable CO2 sink). The methodology implies the adoption of the spatially explicit model BeWhere, which optimizes the cost of the entire BECCS supply chain. Three CCS options are investigated according to different carbon abatement rate: Biomass co-firing up to 15% of total output from a single coal plant with no CCS, CO2 capture and a carbon negative routes through the adoption of biomass coupled with CCS. Saline aquifers located in the US territory and currently representing over 90% of the estimated capacity, are adopted as potential storage sites. The model outputs include the number and location of feasible coal power plants, the length and diameters of CO2 pipelines as well as the location and dimension of the injection sites. The results shows that although the storage of CO2 is largely economically sustainable, the implementation of a full scale BECCS project would require the imposition of high carbon prices (approximately $70/ton). We conclude that to allow the transition of North American black fuel towards a green energy, and thus to defer both climate change and coal plants phase-out, bold policies of clear vision to include CCS in the country’s emissions reductions agenda, must be undertaken

Impact of Global Earth Observation – Systemic view across GEOSS Societal Benefit Areas

Global Earth Observation (GEO) is perceived as instrumental to attain sustainable development goals and to be a major driver of how the society–technology–environment system is managed. However, appropriate scientific methodologies to assess the benefits of GEO and validate investments in earth observation infrastructure development have been missing. This paper presents the systems approach to measure and analyze the impact of Global Earth Observation across nine GEOSS Societal Benefit Areas. The described methodology framework was used as part of global-wide earth observation assessment conducted during the European Commission sponsored project “Global Earth Observation – Benefit Estimation: Now, Next and Emerging” (GEOBENE). The applied systems approach enabled integration and aggregation of GEOBENE project findings. Apart from the assessment framework, there are described specific tools used for the GEO’s impact assessment, i.e. system dynamics model and based on it freely available simulator, as well as some assessment results. Although the total system benefits are strongly policy scenario dependent it was found that improved data due to use of Global Earth Observation and the data availability for community has a great potential in shaping the sustainable future of our planet

Negative Emissions on South East Asia: Renewable Energy Optimization with BECCS for Indonesia

Indonesia, on the one hand, is a tropical country with large biomass productivity and increasing oil and gas sector activities. On the other hand, it is the 3rd largest GHG emitter globally and some 90% of its emissions are generated from massive land-use change. However, Indonesia has also developed very ambitious climate targets aiming at up to 41% emission reduction by 2020. These targets need to be balanced with an envisaged GDP growth by 7% and projected 5 times higher energy consumption in 2050. To decrease its fossil fuel dependency and emissions, the government of Indonesia has decided to increase the renewable energy supply from 6% to 23% by 2025, along with a 100 percent electrification target by 2020. Furthermore, BECCS (i.e. the combination of forest based bioenergy with carbon capture and storage) is seen as a promising tool to bridge between the various future challenges Indonesia is facing and at the same time to deliver large quantities of negative emissions needed by the end of this century. But - irrespectively of Indonesia’s abundant resources to meet ambitious renewable energy and mitigation targets - there is lack of proper integrated planning, regulatory support, investment, distribution in remote areas of the Archipelago, and missing data to back the planning. To support the government of Indonesia in its sustainable energy systems planning, a geographic explicit energy modeling approach is applied. IIASA’s BeWhere Model identifies the optimal location of energy conversion sites based on the minimization of the supply chain costs. The model incorporates the existing fossil fuel-based infrastructures, and evaluates the optimal costs, potentials and locations for the development of renewable energy technologies (i.e. wind, solar, hydro, biomass and geothermal based technologies), as well as the development of biomass co-firing in existing coal plants. An optimally adapted renewable energy mix – vis-à-vis the competing fossil fuel based resources – is identified. In addition, the in situ BECCS capacity for different scenarios is assessed for Indonesia. Special focus is put on nature protection and cultural heritage areas, where feedstock (e.g., biomass harvesting) and green-field power plant sites will be limited – depending on the protection type and renewable energy technology. First results of the study provide indications on where, how and which technologies should be implemented. Moreover, the assessment indicates that the BECCS potentials vary substantially over the different scenario assumptions. Sustainable biomass feedstock production, energy demand and supply as well as competing industries and existing transport infrastructure are key to achieve an optimal BECCS solution. Clean energy access for all with special emphasis on remote areas and small islands in Indonesia turns out to be especially interesting from a socio-economic, emission savings and innovation perspective

Committed to restoring tropical forests: an overview of Brazil’s and Indonesia’s restoration targets and policies

The restoration of tropical forests has become a popular nature-based solution for climate change mitigation, protection of biodiversity, and improving the livelihoods of local populations. The Bonn Challenge and the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration underscore the international momentum of the restoration movement, with many countries committing to restore millions of hectares of deforested and degraded land in the next decade. Brazil and Indonesia are among the ones with the most ambitious restoration commitments globally. Since both their economies are highly dependent on the export of agricultural commodities, reconciling economic growth with environmental sustainability will be a major policy challenge. In this paper, we (a) identify the main restoration targets and the policies supporting their implementation in both countries, (b) provide a descriptive overview of these restoration-supportive policies, and (c) discuss the main challenges that Brazil and Indonesia face in the implementation of their restoration commitments. We find that Brazil has an explicit and dedicated strategy to achieve its restoration target, but that recent political developments have weakened environmental governance in the country, affecting the implementation of its restoration commitment. In the case of Indonesia, we find that the government has rather focused and progressed on the restoration of peatlands and mangroves, whereas its commitment to restore forestlands has yet to benefit from a dedicated plan that allows to coordinate policies and agencies’ efforts towards the achievement of its restoration target.Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz, nukleare Sicherheit und Verbraucherschutz (BMUV)http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100006549Peer Reviewe

Sustainable forest bioenergy development strategies in Indochina: Collaborative effort to establish regional policies

We conducted a feasibility study in Indochina (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam) with the aim of promoting biomass and bioenergy markets, technology transfer, rural development, and income generation. Policy development is guided by the International Union of Forest Research Institutions (IUFRO) Task Force “Sustainable Forest Bioenergy Network”. In this paper, we highlight the achievements up to now and present results of a multi-stakeholder questionnaire in combination with a quantitative analysis of the National Bioenergy Development Plans (NBDPs). We found a gap between official documents and working group assessments. NBDPs are focused on the market development, technology transfer, and funding possibilities of a regional bioenergy strategy, while the respondents of a questionnaire (working groups) favored more altruistic goals, i.e., sustainable resource management, environmental protection and climate change mitigation, generation of rural income, and community involvement, etc. We therefore suggest the following measures to ensure regulations that support the original aims of the network (climate change mitigation, poverty alleviation, sustainable resource use, and diversification of energy generation): (i) Consideration of science-based evidence for drafting bioenergy policies, particularly in the field of biomass production and harvesting; (ii) invitation of stakeholders representing rural communities to participate in this process; (iii) development of sustainability criteria; (iv) feedback cycles ensuring more intensive discussion of policy drafts; (v) association of an international board of experts to provide scientifically sound feedback and input; and (vi) establishment of a local demonstration region, containing various steps in the biomass/bioenergy supply chain including transboundary collaboration in the ACMECS region

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture without compromising food security?

To keep global warming possibly below 1.5◦C and mitigate adverse effects of climate change, agriculture, like all other sectors, will have to contribute to efforts in achieving net negative emissions by the end of the century. Cost-efficient distribution of mitigation across regions and economic sectors is typically calculated using a global uniform carbon price in climate stabilization scenarios. However, in reality such a carbon price would substantially affect food availability. Here, we assess the implications of climate change mitigation in the land use sector for agricultural production and food security using an integrated partial equilibrium modelling framework and explore ways of relaxing the competition between mitigation in agriculture and food availability. Using a scenario that limits global warming cost-efficiently across sectors to 1.5◦C, results indicate global food calorie losses ranging from 110–285 kcal per capita per day in 2050 depending on the applied demand elasticities. This could translate into a rise in undernourishment of 80–300 million people in 2050. Less ambitious greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation in the land use sector reduces the associated food security impact significantly, however the 1.5◦C target would not be achieved without additional reductions outside the land use sector. Efficiency of GHG mitigation will also depend on the level of participation globally. Our results show that if non-Annex-I countries decide not to contribute to mitigation action while other parties pursue their mitigation efforts to reach the global climate target, food security impacts in these non-Annex-I countries will be higher than if they participate in a global agreement, as inefficient mitigation increases agricultural production costs and therefore food prices. Land-rich countries with a high proportion of emissions from land use change, such as Brazil, could reduce emissions with only a marginal effect on food availability. In contrast, agricultural mitigation in high population (density) countries, such as China and India, would lead to substantial food calorie loss without a major contribution to global GHG mitigation. Increasing soil carbon sequestration on agricultural land would allow reducing the implied calorie loss by 65% when sticking to the initially estimated land use mitigation requirements, thereby limiting the impact on undernourishment to 20–75 million people, and storing significant amounts of carbon in soils

Spatial distribution of arable and abandoned land across former Soviet Union countries

Knowledge of the spatial distribution of agricultural abandonment following the collapse of the Soviet Union is highly uncertain. To help improve this situation, we have developed a new map of arable and abandoned land for 2010 at a 10 arc-second resolution. We have fused together existing land cover and land use maps at different temporal and spatial scales for the former Soviet Union (fSU) using a training data set collected from visual interpretation of very high resolution (VHR) imagery. We have also collected an independent validation data set to assess the map accuracy. The overall accuracies of the map by region and country, i.e. Caucasus, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Republic of Moldova, Russian Federation and Ukraine, are 90±2%, 84±2%, 92±1%, 78±3%, 95±1%, 83±2%, respectively. This new product can be used for numerous applications including the modelling of biogeochemical cycles, land-use modelling, the assessment of trade-offs between ecosystem services and land-use potentials (e.g., agricultural production), among others

Downgrading Recent Estimates of Land Available for Biofuel Production

Recent estimates of additional land available for bioenergy production range from 320 to 1411 million ha. These estimates were generated from four scenarios regarding the types of land suitable for bioenergy production using coarse-resolution inputs of soil productivity, slope, climate, and land cover. In this paper, these maps of land availability were assessed using high-resolution satellite imagery. Samples from these maps were selected and crowdsourcing of Google Earth images was used to determine the type of land cover and the degree of human impact. Based on this sample, a set of rules was formulated to downward adjust the original estimates for each of the four scenarios that were previously used to generate the maps of land availability for bioenergy production. The adjusted land availability estimates range from 56 to 1035 million ha depending upon the scenario and the ruleset used when the sample is corrected for bias. Large forest areas not intended for biofuel production purposes were present in all scenarios. However, these numbers should not be considered as definitive estimates but should be used to highlight the uncertainty in attempting to quantify land availability for biofuel production when using coarse-resolution inputs with implications for further policy development

On fair, effective and efficient REDD mechanism design

The issues surrounding 'Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation' (REDD) have become a major component of continuing negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This paper aims to address two key requirements of any potential REDD mechanism: first, the generation of measurable, reportable and verifiable (MRV) REDD credits; and secondly, the sustainable and efficient provision of emission reductions under a robust financing regime

Global forest management data for 2015 at a 100 m resolution

Spatially explicit information on forest management at a global scale is critical for understanding the status of forests, for planning sustainable forest management and restoration, and conservation activities. Here, we produce the first reference data set and a prototype of a globally consistent forest management map with high spatial detail on the most prevalent forest management classes such as intact forests, managed forests with natural regeneration, planted forests, plantation forest (rotation up to 15 years), oil palm plantations, and agroforestry. We developed the reference dataset of 226 K unique locations through a series of expert and crowdsourcing campaigns using Geo-Wiki (https://www.geo-wiki.org/). We then combined the reference samples with time series from PROBA-V satellite imagery to create a global wall-to-wall map of forest management at a 100 m resolution for the year 2015, with forest management class accuracies ranging from 58% to 80%. The reference data set and the map present the status of forest ecosystems and can be used for investigating the value of forests for species, ecosystems and their services