"Decision Making in Europe: Were Spain and Poland Right to Stop the Constitution in December 2003?"

This paper tries to explain why Spain and Poland stopped the Draft Constitution for the European Union in December 2003 and discusses whether this action was compatible with these countries long term interests. The author finds that the decline in power – measured by a power index – arising for Spain and Poland when going from the Nice Treaty to the Draft Constitution cannot explain their veto. While the two countries lose power when shifting from Nice to the Draft Constitution other countries’ power shrinks even more. Other measures - passage probability, blocking leverage and fairness - cannot explain the two countries’ opposition either. This paper contends that the Spanish and Polish rejection can be explained by the weakness of government in the Polish and the need for a reelection topic in the Spanish case. Furthermore this paper asserts that the Spanish and Polish government’s veto was against the medium and long term interest of their own countries. Poland and Spain must have been able to anticipate that the Nice Treaty would not last due to most EU countries’ dislike of it. An analysis of reasonable alternative voting schemes in the EU finds that Spain and Poland would not have been better off in any of these cases and worse off in most; under the voting rules agreed upon under the Irish presidency in June 2004 the two countries are weaker than under the Draft Constitution

When Can We Trust Population Thresholds in Regression Discontinuity Designs?

A recent literature has used variation just around deterministic legislative population thresholds to identify the causal effects of institutional changes. This paper reviews the use of regression discontinuity designs using such population thresholds. Our concern involves three arguments: (1) simultaneous exogenous (co-)treatment, (2) simultaneous endogenous choices and (3) manipulation and precise control over population measures. Revisiting the study by Egger and Koethenbuerger (2010), who analyse the relationship between council size and government spending, we present new evidence that these three concerns do matter for causal analysis. Our results suggest that empirical designs using population thresholds are only to be used with utmost care and confidence in the precise institutional setting.Regression discontinuity design, population thresholds, local elections, government spending

Divided Government versus Incumbency Externality Effect: Quasi-Experimental Evidence on Multiple Voting Decisions

This paper explores the interdependency of political institutions from the voter's perspective. Specifically, we are interested in three questions: (1) Does the partisan identity of the local mayor influence the voter's decision in the subsequent town council election?; (2) Does this partisan identity influence in ensuing higher level elections?; and (3) Do voters condition their vote for the mayor on the result of the last council election? We collected a unique data set for Germany in which we link election results for different political institutions at the municipal level. To identify causal effects, we rely on a regression discontinuity design focusing on close election outcomes. We find that the party of the mayor receives a bonus of 4-5 percentage points in vote share in the subsequent town council elections if, and only if, mayoral and council elections are held simultaneously. With regard to higher level elections, we find no effect for the party identity of the mayor on federal and European election outcomes. Using run-off mayor races, which are held shortly after council elections, we show that voters punish parties that performed strongly in the council election. To explain our empirical findings, we explore two mechanisms from the theoretical literature. We conclude that there is evidence both for an incumbency externality effect as well as a preference for divided government effect in opposite directions.Regression discontinuity design, municipality data, local election results, divided government effect, incumbency externality effect

Incumbency, Party Identity and Governmental Lead: Evidence for Heterogeneous Incumbency Effects for Germany

Do incumbents in an election have an advantage, and if so, are these advantages heterogeneous across parties or government and opposition? We first present a theoretical discussion on the possible heterogeneity of incumbency effects in a pure two-party system. Then, we estimate the incumbency effect for the direct district candidates in German federal and state elections using a regression discontinuity design (RDD). When studying the heterogeneity in these effects, we find that incumbents from both large parties, the center-right CDU and the center-left SPD, have an advantage only if the SPD is in government. This effect is robust and shows even in state elections that are unrelated to federal elections - calling into question the findings of average incumbency effects in the literature. Because this effect is stronger in the East than in the West and only shows post reunification, we hypothesise that the emergence of the socialist party "The Left" may be behind this heterogeneity.incumbency advantage, regression discontinuity design, federal elections, state elections

On new physics searches with multidimensional differential shapes

In the context of upcoming new physics searches at the LHC, we investigate the impact of multidimensional differential rates in typical LHC analyses. We discuss the properties of shape information, and argue that multidimensional rates bring limited information in the scope of a discovery, but can have a large impact on model discrimination. We also point out subtleties about systematic uncertainties cancellations and the Cauchy-Schwarz bound on interference terms

Experiment for cryogenic large-aperture intensity mapping: instrument design

The experiment for cryogenic large-aperture intensity mapping (EXCLAIM) is a balloon-borne telescope designed to survey star formation in windows from the present to z  =  3.5. During this time, the rate of star formation dropped dramatically, while dark matter continued to cluster. EXCLAIM maps the redshifted emission of singly ionized carbon lines and carbon monoxide using intensity mapping, which permits a blind and complete survey of emitting gas through statistics of cumulative brightness fluctuations. EXCLAIM achieves high sensitivity using a cryogenic telescope coupled to six integrated spectrometers employing kinetic inductance detectors covering 420 to 540 GHz with spectral resolving power R  =  512 and angular resolution ≈4  arc min. The spectral resolving power and cryogenic telescope allow the survey to access dark windows in the spectrum of emission from the upper atmosphere. EXCLAIM will survey 305  deg2 in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Stripe 82 field from a conventional balloon flight in 2023. EXCLAIM will also map several galactic fields to study carbon monoxide and neutral carbon emission as tracers of molecular gas. We summarize the design phase of the mission

Hemotrophic mycoplasma in Simmental cattle in Bavaria: prevalence, blood parameters, and transplacental transmission of ‘Candidatus Mycoplasma haemobos’ and Mycoplasma wenyonii

Abstract Background The significance of hemotrophic mycoplasma in cattle remains unclear. Especially in Europe, their epidemiological parameters as well as pathophysiological influence on cows are lacking. The objectives of this study were: (1) to describe the prevalence of ‘Candidatus Mycoplasma haemobos’ (‘C. M. haemobos’) and Mycoplasma wenyonii (M. wenyonii) in Bavaria, Germany; (2) to evaluate their association with several blood parameters; (3) to explore the potential of vertical transmission in Simmental cattle; and (4) to evaluate the accuracy of acridine-orange-stained blood smears compared to real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) results to detect hemotrophic mycoplasma. A total of 410 ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid-blood samples from cows from 41 herds were evaluated by hematology, acridine-orange-stained blood smears, and real-time PCR. Additionally, blood samples were taken from dry cows of six dairy farms with positive test results for hemotrophic mycoplasma to investigate vertical transmission of infection. Results The period prevalence of both species was 60.24% (247/410), C. M. haemobos 56.59% (232/410), M. wenyonii 8.54% (35/410) and for coinfection 4.88% (20/410). Of the relevant blood parameters, only mean cell volume (MCV), mean cell hemoglobin (MCH), and white blood cell count (WBC) showed differences between the groups of infected and non-infected individuals. There were lower values of MCV (P < 0.01) and MCH (P < 0.01) and higher values of WBC (P < 0.05) in ‘C. M. haemobos’-infected cows. In contrast, co-infected individuals had only higher WBC (P < 0.05). In M. wenyonii-positive blood samples, MCH was significantly lower (P < 0.05). Vertical transmission of ‘C. M. haemobos’ was confirmed in two calves. The acridine-orange-method had a low sensitivity (37.39%), specificity (65.97%), positive predictive value (63.70%) and negative predictive value (39.75%) compared to PCR. Conclusions ‘Candidatus Mycoplasma haemobos’ was more prevalent than M. wenyonii in Bavarian Simmental cattle, but infection had little impact on evaluated blood parameters. Vertical transmission of the infection was rare. Real-time PCR is the preferred diagnostic method compared to the acridine-orange-method