When Can We Trust Population Thresholds in Regression Discontinuity Designs?

A recent literature has used variation just around deterministic legislative population thresholds to identify the causal effects of institutional changes. This paper reviews the use of regression discontinuity designs using such population thresholds. Our concern involves three arguments: (1) simultaneous exogenous (co-)treatment, (2) simultaneous endogenous choices and (3) manipulation and precise control over population measures. Revisiting the study by Egger and Koethenbuerger (2010), who analyse the relationship between council size and government spending, we present new evidence that these three concerns do matter for causal analysis. Our results suggest that empirical designs using population thresholds are only to be used with utmost care and confidence in the precise institutional setting.Regression discontinuity design, population thresholds, local elections, government spending

Marginal employment: Stepping stone or dead end? : evaluating the German experience

"'Marginal employment', i. e. employment with low working hours and earnings not covered by social security, has been gaining importance in the German economy over the past decade. Using a large newly available panel data set from the Employment Statistics of the Federal Employment Agency and statistical matching techniques, we analyse the effects of marginal employment on future individual outcome variables such as unemployment, regular employment and earnings. In addition to average treatment effects, we calculate dynamic and cumulative treatment effects accounting for total time spent in various labour market states and related earnings over a period of three years. We restrict the analysis to men and estimate the treatment effects separately for eastern and western Germany as well as for older workers and those workers who are likely to top up unemployment benefits with earnings from marginal employment. We find that marginal employment (i) does not affect time spent in regular employment within a three-year observation period, (ii) reduces future unemployment, where (iii) the effects on unemployment are to be seen as transitory. Furthermore, it (iv) slightly increases cumulated future earnings on average, and (v) is associated with a small negative cumulative earnings effect for older workers in western Germany." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) Additional Information Kurzfassung (deutsch) Executive summary (English)geringfügige Beschäftigung - Auswirkungen, Berufsverlauf, Beschäftigungseffekte, Einkommenseffekte, Arbeitslosigkeit, Erwerbstätigkeit, regionaler Vergleich, Mini-Job, arbeitslose Männer, Substitutionseffekte, BA-Beschäftigtenpanel, Ostdeutschland, Westdeutschland, Bundesrepublik Deutschland

'Marginal Employment' and the Demand for Heterogenous Labour: Empirical Evidence from a Multi-factor Labour Demand Model for Germany

We develop a structural multi-factor labour demand model which distinguishes between eight labour categories including non-standard types of employment such as marginal employment. The model is estimated for both the number of workers and total working hours using a new panel data set. For unskilled and skilled workers in full-time employment, we find labour demand elasticities similar to previous estimates for the west German economy. Our new estimates of own-wage elasticities for marginal employment range between -.4 (number of male workers in west Germany) to -1 (working hours for women). We illustrate the implications of these estimates by simulating the likely labour demand effects of the recent increase of employers' social security contributions (SSC) on marginal employment in Germany.Multi-factor labour demand for heterogenous labour, marginal employment

Divided Government versus Incumbency Externality Effect: Quasi-Experimental Evidence on Multiple Voting Decisions

This paper explores the interdependency of political institutions from the voter's perspective. Specifically, we are interested in three questions: (1) Does the partisan identity of the local mayor influence the voter's decision in the subsequent town council election?; (2) Does this partisan identity influence in ensuing higher level elections?; and (3) Do voters condition their vote for the mayor on the result of the last council election? We collected a unique data set for Germany in which we link election results for different political institutions at the municipal level. To identify causal effects, we rely on a regression discontinuity design focusing on close election outcomes. We find that the party of the mayor receives a bonus of 4-5 percentage points in vote share in the subsequent town council elections if, and only if, mayoral and council elections are held simultaneously. With regard to higher level elections, we find no effect for the party identity of the mayor on federal and European election outcomes. Using run-off mayor races, which are held shortly after council elections, we show that voters punish parties that performed strongly in the council election. To explain our empirical findings, we explore two mechanisms from the theoretical literature. We conclude that there is evidence both for an incumbency externality effect as well as a preference for divided government effect in opposite directions.Regression discontinuity design, municipality data, local election results, divided government effect, incumbency externality effect

Avian Malaria Among House Sparrows: a Survey of Disease and Mosquito Vectors (Diptera: Culicidae) in Reed City, Michigan

Nine of 350 house sparrows caught in Reed City, Michigan, had malaria parasites detectable on Giemsa-stained thin films. All of the infected birds were juveniles, Parasitemias were too low to permit identification of the Plasmodium present. Collection of potential vector mosquitoes showed that Culex pipiens and Culex restuans were present, but in low numbers

Developing methods for strategic evaluation in agricultural research and production

We analyze instruments to evaluate investment strategies as new options for co-operatives within the wheat production chain. Using a value-based management the extension of our concept, a “cooperative balanced scorecard” is discussed as we propose the further differentiation of the scorecard’s financial perspective. This is a market development-driven approach as cooperatives may be regarded as commodity-price-intermediators for their members. Proposing this approach we use a simple model of conjoint-hedging in intermediating firms within agribusiness.Agribusiness, Wheat Production, Cooperatives, Intermediation, Value-based Management, Commodity Markets., Agricultural and Food Policy,

Incumbency, Party Identity and Governmental Lead: Evidence for Heterogeneous Incumbency Effects for Germany

Do incumbents in an election have an advantage, and if so, are these advantages heterogeneous across parties or government and opposition? We first present a theoretical discussion on the possible heterogeneity of incumbency effects in a pure two-party system. Then, we estimate the incumbency effect for the direct district candidates in German federal and state elections using a regression discontinuity design (RDD). When studying the heterogeneity in these effects, we find that incumbents from both large parties, the center-right CDU and the center-left SPD, have an advantage only if the SPD is in government. This effect is robust and shows even in state elections that are unrelated to federal elections - calling into question the findings of average incumbency effects in the literature. Because this effect is stronger in the East than in the West and only shows post reunification, we hypothesise that the emergence of the socialist party "The Left" may be behind this heterogeneity.incumbency advantage, regression discontinuity design, federal elections, state elections

Political economy of the Agenda 2010 reforms: How Gerhard Schröder overcame the "blocked republic". ACES Cases No. 2008.3

This essay will show that the Schröder-led government managed to break the political gridlock and introduce the Agenda 2010 because key institutional structures of Germany‟s political economy had lost their obstructive powers. In other words, the formerly semi-sovereign state had reclaimed its sovereignty. To understand how this happened, Peter Katzenstein's concept of the semi-sovereign state is first explored as a framework through which to analyze economic policy continuity and change. Within this framework, the causes for constant reform inertia between 1982 and 2002, in spite of varying political constellations and changes in the country‟s economic structure, are then discussed. This analysis will demonstrate that the Agenda 2010 reforms are predominantly a result of underlying incremental change in the political economy and its effect on the political decision-making process. Finally, the findings of this analysis are summarized and discussed with the aim of better understanding the economic policies of the current grand coalition government of the CDU/CSU and the SPD government under Chancellor Angela Merkel

Oportunidades y desafíos para la integración energética entre Argentina y Brasil: el caso de las energías renovables

Dado que el acceso a los recursos energéticos reviste gran importancia geopolítica y es fundamental en toda estrategia nacional para generar crecimiento económico, el tema de la seguridad energética se ha transformado en uno de los principales desafíos para la mayoría de los estados, ya que muchos países enfrentan la dificultad de acceder a una suficiente cantidad de recursos para cubrir la demanda y estimular la prosperidad y el crecimiento interno. Siguiendo esa línea y enfocado en la seguridad energética en el cono sur sudamericano, este artículo analiza la situación de los renovables en la matriz energética de Argentina y Brasil, con el objetivo de abrir el debate sobre las oportunidades de una integración regional energética a nivel del Mercosur.Fil: Freier, Alexander. Universidad Católica de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Politicas y Relaciones Internacionales; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentin

Demokratische Republik Kongo : Von Leopold, einem Leoparden, Rohstoffreichtümern und Bürgerkrieg

Die Geschichte der heutigen DR Kongo zeichnet ein düsteres, deprimierendes Bild. Von der Zerstörung grundlegender Sozialstrukturen während einer brutalen Kolonialzeit, über die kleptokratischen Exesse eines in den Spannungen des Kalten Krieges eingebetteten Diktators, über Bürgerkrieg, Völkermord und Gewaltexzesse unkontrollierbarer Soldaten und Milizen versinnbildlicht der Kongo die schier unüberwindbaren Probleme eines afrikanischen „failed state“. Am 30. Juni 2010 feiert die DR Kongo das 50-jährige Jubiläum ihrer Unabhängigkeit. Doch die anhaltende Gewalt in den östlichen Provinzen, die grassierende Gesetzlosigkeit, Korruption, soziales Elend, sexuelle Gewalt - zunehmend auch gegen Männer - werfen die Frage auf, was es tatsächlich zu feiern gibt. Wie konnte es soweit kommen, dass ein Autor der Zeitung Die Zeit die DR Kongo als „Hölle im Paradies“ bezeichnet und Joseph Conrads Roman „Herz der Finsternis“ (1899) vielerorts als apokalyptische Prophezeiung der humanitären Krise der DR Kongo seit Mitte der 90er Jahre interpretiert wird