Applying the scientific method when assessing the influence of migratory birds on the dispersal of H5N1

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The role of wild birds in the dispersal of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 continues to be the subject of considerable debate. However, some researchers functionally examining the same question are applying opposing null hypotheses when examining this issue.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>I describe the correct method for establishing a null hypothesis under the scientific method. I suggest that the correct null hypothesis is that migratory birds can disperse this virus during migration and encourage researchers to design studies to falsify this null. Finally, I provide several examples where statements made during this debate, while strictly true, are not generally informative or are speculative.</p> <p>Summary</p> <p>By adhering to the scientific method, definitive answers regarding the role of wild birds in the dispersal of highly pathogenic viruses will be reached more effectively.</p

Depredation of Common Eider, Somateria mollissima, Nests on a Central Beaufort Sea Barrier Island: A Case Where No One Wins

Along the central Beaufort Sea, Pacific Common Eiders (Somateria mollissima v-nigra) nest on unvegetated, barrier islands; often near nesting Glaucous Gulls (Larus hyperboreus). Nest-site choice likely reflects a strategy of predator avoidance: nesting on islands to avoid mammalian predators and near territorial gulls to avoid other avian predators. We observed a nesting colony of Common Eiders from first nest initiation through nesting termination on Egg Island near Prudhoe Bay, Alaska (2002 &ndash; 2003). Resident gulls depredated many eider nests, mostly during initiation. All nests failed when an Arctic Fox (Alopex lagopus) visited the island and flushed hens from their nests, exposing the eggs to depredation by the fox and gulls (resident and non-resident). Common Eiders actively defended nests from gulls, but not from foxes. Likely all three species (i.e., eiders, gulls, and foxes) ultimately achieved negligible benefit from their nest-site selection or predatory activity: (a) island nesting provided no safety from mammalian predators for eiders or gulls, (b) for Common Eiders, nesting near gulls increased egg loss, (c) for Glaucous Gulls, nesting near colonial eiders may have reduced nest success by attracting the fox, and (d) for Arctic Foxes, the depredation was of questionable value, as most eggs were cached and probably not recoverable (due to damage from fall storms). Thus, the predator-prey interactions we observed appear to be a case where little or no fitness advantage was realized by any of the species involved

Population Dynamics of Long-tailed Ducks Breeding on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

Population estimates for long-tailed ducks in North America have declined by nearly 50% over the past 30 years. Life history and population dynamics of this species are difficult to ascertain, because the birds nest at low densities across a broad range of habitat types. Between 1991 and 2004, we collected information on productivity and survival of long-tailed ducks at three locations on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta. Clutch size averaged 7.1 eggs, and nesting success averaged 30%. Duckling survival to 30 days old averaged 10% but was highly variable among years, ranging from 0% to 25%. Apparent annual survival of adult females based on mark-recapture of nesting females was estimated at 74%. We combined these estimates of survival and productivity into a matrix-based population model, which predicted an annual population decline of 19%. Elasticities indicated that population growth rate (?) was most sensitive to changes in adult female survival. Further, the relatively high sensitivity of ? to duckling survival suggests that low duckling survival may be a bottleneck to productivity in some years. These data represent the first attempt to synthesize a population model for this species. Although our analyses were hampered by the small sample sizes inherent in studying a dispersed nesting species, our model provides a basis for management actions and can be enhanced as additional data become available.Les estimations de populations d’hareldes kakawis en Amérique du Nord ont chuté de près de 50 pour cent ces 30 dernières années. Le cycle biologique et la dynamique des populations de cette espèce sont difficiles à établir car ces oiseaux nichent moyennant de faibles densités dans une vaste gamme d’habitats. De 1991 à 2004, nous avons recueilli des données sur la productivité et la survie des hareldes kakawis à trois emplacements du delta Yukon-Kuskokwim. Les couvées atteignaient 7,1 oeufs en moyenne, tandis que le succès de reproduction s’établissait généralement à 30 pour cent. En moyenne, 10 pour cent des jeunes canards survivaient jusqu’à l’âge de 30 jours, mais ce taux variait beaucoup d’une année à l’autre, allant de 0 pour cent à 25 pour cent. Annuellement, d’après la méthode par marquage et recapture des femelles nidificatrices, la survie apparente des femelles adultes était évaluée à 74 pour cent. Nous avons combiné ces estimations de survie et de productivité dans un modèle de population matriciel, ce qui a permis de prédire un déclin de population annuel de 19 pour cent. Selon les élasticités, le taux de croissance de la population (?) était plus sensible aux changements dans le cas de la survie des femelles adultes. Par ailleurs, la sensibilité relativement élevée du ? par rapport à la survie des jeunes canards laisse croire que le faible taux de survie des jeunes canards pourrait présenter une embûche en matière de productivité d’ici quelques années. Ces données représentent la première tentative de synthèse d’un modèle de population pour cette espèce. Bien que nos analyses aient été gênées par la petite taille des échantillons inhérente à l’étude d’espèces de nidification dispersées, notre modèle fournit un fondement permettant d’aboutir à des mesures de gestion en plus de présenter la possibilité d’être amélioré au fur et à mesure que des données supplémentaires sont disponibles

Avian influenza at both ends of a migratory flyway: characterizing viral genomic diversity to optimize surveillance plans for North America

Although continental populations of avian influenza viruses are genetically distinct, transcontinental reassortment in low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) viruses has been detected in migratory birds. Thus, genomic analyses of LPAI viruses could serve as an approach to prioritize species and regions targeted by North American surveillance activities for foreign origin highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). To assess the applicability of this approach, we conducted a phylogenetic and population genetic analysis of 68 viral genomes isolated from the northern pintail (Anas acuta) at opposite ends of the Pacific migratory flyway in North America. We found limited evidence for Asian LPAI lineages on wintering areas used by northern pintails in California in contrast to a higher frequency on breeding locales of Alaska. Our results indicate that the number of Asian LPAI lineages observed in Alaskan northern pintails, and the nucleotide composition of LPAI lineages, is not maintained through fall migration. Accordingly, our data indicate that surveillance of Pacific Flyway northern pintails to detect foreign avian influenza viruses would be most effective in Alaska. North American surveillance plans could be optimized through an analysis of LPAI genomics from species that demonstrate evolutionary linkages with European or Asian lineages and in regions that have overlapping migratory flyways with areas of HPAI outbreaks

Linkages between stratospheric ozone, UV radiation and climate change and their implications for terrestrial ecosystems

Exposure of plants and animals to ultraviolet-B radiation (UV-B; 280-315 nm) is modified by stratospheric ozone dynamics and climate change. Even though stabilisation and projected recovery of stratospheric ozone is expected to curtail future increases in UV-B radiation at the Earth’s surface, on-going changes in climate are increasingly exposing plants and animals to novel combinations of UV-B radiation and other climate change factors (e.g., ultraviolet-A and visible radiation, water availability, temperature and elevated carbon dioxide). Climate change is also shifting vegetation cover, geographic ranges of species, and seasonal timing of development, which further modifies exposure to UV-B radiation. Since our last assessment, there is increased understanding of the underlying mechanisms by which plants perceive UV-B radiation, eliciting changes in growth, development and tolerances of abiotic and biotic factors. However, major questions remain on how UV-B radiation is interacting with other climate change factors to modify the production and quality of crops, as well as important ecosystem processes such as plant and animal competition, pest-pathogen interactions, and the decomposition of dead plant matter (litter). In addition, stratospheric ozone depletion is directly contributing to climate change in the southern hemisphere, such that terrestrial ecosystems in this region are being exposed to altered patterns of precipitation, temperature and fire regimes as well as UV-B radiation. These ozone-driven changes in climate have been implicated in both increases and reductions in the growth, survival and reproduction of plants and animals in Antarctica, South America and New Zealand. In this assessment, we summarise advances in our knowledge of these and other linkages and effects, and identify uncertainties and knowledge gaps that limit our ability to fully evaluate the ecological consequences of these environmental changes on terrestrial ecosystems.Peer reviewe

Ozone depletion, ultraviolet radiation, climate change and prospects for a sustainable future

Changes in stratospheric ozone and climate over the past 40-plus years have altered the solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation conditions at the Earth's surface. Ozone depletion has also contributed to climate change across the Southern Hemisphere. These changes are interacting in complex ways to affect human health, food and water security, and ecosystem services. Many adverse effects of high UV exposure have been avoided thanks to the Montreal Protocol with its Amendments and Adjustments, which have effectively controlled the production and use of ozone-depleting substances. This international treaty has also played an important role in mitigating climate change. Climate change is modifying UV exposure and affecting how people and ecosystems respond to UV; these effects will become more pronounced in the future. The interactions between stratospheric ozone, climate and UV radiation will therefore shift over time; however, the Montreal Protocol will continue to have far-reaching benefits for human well-being and environmental sustainability.Peer reviewe

Developmental features of cotton fibre middle lamellae in relation to cell adhesion and cell detachment in cultivars with distinct fibre qualities.

Background: Cotton fibre quality traits such as fibre length, strength, and degree of maturation are determined by genotype and environment during the sequential phases of cotton fibre development (cell elongation, transition to secondary cell wall construction and cellulose deposition). The cotton fibre middle lamella (CFML) is crucial for both cell adhesion and detachment processes occurring during fibre development. To explore the relationship between fibre quality and the pace at which cotton fibres develop, a structural and compositional analysis of the CFML was carried out in several cultivars with different fibre properties belonging to four commercial species: Gossypium hirsutum, G. barbadense, G. herbaceum and G. arboreum. Results: Cotton fibre cell adhesion, through the cotton fibre middle lamella (CFML), is a developmentally regulated process determined by genotype. The CFML is composed of de-esterified homogalacturonan, xyloglucan and arabinan in all four fibre-producing cotton species: G. hirsutum, G. barbadense, G. herbaceum and G. arboreum. Conspicuous paired cell wall bulges are a feature of the CFML of two G. hirsutum cultivars from the onset of fibre cell wall detachment to the start of secondary cell wall deposition. Xyloglucan is abundant in the cell wall bulges and in later stages pectic arabinan is absent from these regions. Conclusions: The CFML of cotton fibres is re-structured during the transition phase. Paired cell wall bulges, rich in xyloglucan, are significantly more evident in the G. hirsutum cultivars than in other cotton species