The representation of dust transport and missing urban sources as major issues for the simulation of PM episodes in a Mediterranean area

Due to its adverse effects on human health, atmospheric particulate matter (PM) constitutes a growing challenge for air quality management. It is also a complex subject of study. The understanding of its atmospheric evolution is indeed made difficult by the wide number of sources and the numerous processes that govern its evolution in the troposphere. As a consequence, the representation of particulate matter in chemistry-transport models needs to be permanently evaluated and enhanced in order to refine our comprehension of PM pollution events and to propose consistent environmental policies. The study presented here focuses on two successive summer particulate pollution episodes that occurred on the French Mediterranean coast. We identify and analyze the constitutive elements of the first and more massive episode and we discuss their representation within a eulerian model. <br><br> The results show that the model fails in reproducing the variability and the amplitude of dust import from western Africa, and that it constitutes a strong bias in PM daily forecasts. We then focus on the lack of diurnal variability in the model, which is attributed to missing urban sources in standard emission inventories, and notably the resuspension of particles by urban road traffic. Through a sensitivity study based on PM and NO<sub>x</sub> measurements, we assess the sensitivity of PM to local emissions and the need to reconsider road traffic PM sources. In parallel, by coupling the CHIMERE-DUST model outputs to our simulation, we show that the representation of transcontinental dust transport allows a much better representation of atmospheric particles in southern France, and that it is needed in the frame of air quality management for the quantification of the anthropogenic part of particulate matter pollution

Inferring change points and nonlinear trends in multivariate time series: Application to West African monsoon onset timings estimation

International audienceTime series in statistical climatology are classically represented by additive models. For example, a seasonal part and a linear trend are often included as components of the sum. Less frequently, hidden elements (e.g., to represent the impact of volcanic forcing on temperatures) can be integrated. Depending on the complexity and the interactions among the different components, the statistical inference challenge can quickly become difficult, especially in a multivariate context where the timings and contributions of hidden signals are unknown. In this article we focus on the statistical problem of decomposing multivariate time series that may contain both nonlinear trends and change points (discontinuities), the change points being assumed to occur simultaneously in time for all variables in the multivariate analysis. The motivation for such a study comes from the statistical analysis of the West African monsoon (WAM) phenomenon for which unknown preonset and onset dates occur each year. The impacts of such onsets can be statistically viewed as yearly change points that affect, almost synchronously, trends in observed time series such as daily Outgoing Longwave Radiation and the Intertropical Discontinuity. Our proposed model corresponds to a multivariate additive model with nonlinear trends and possible yearly discontinuities, modeling the onsets. An inference scheme based on a nonlinear Kalman filtering approach is proposed. It enables to identify the different parts hidden in the original multivariate vector. Our inference strategy is tested on simulated data and applied to the analysis of the WAM phenomenon during the period 1979-2008. Our extracted onset dates are then compared to the ones obtained from past studies

Origin of low-tropospheric potential vorticity in Mediterranean cyclones

Mediterranean cyclones are extratropical cyclones, typically of smaller size and weaker intensity than other cyclones that develop over the main open ocean storm tracks. Nevertheless, Mediterranean cyclones can attain high intensities, even comparable to the ones of tropical cyclones, and thus cause large socioeconomic impacts in the densely populated coasts of the region. After cyclogenesis takes place, a large variety of processes are involved in the cyclone’s development, contributing with positive and negative potential vorticity (PV) changes to the lower-tropospheric PV anomalies in the cyclone center. Although the diabatic processes that produce these PV anomalies in Mediterranean cyclones are known, it is still an open question whether they occur locally within the cyclone itself or remotely in the environment (e.g., near high orography) with a subsequent transport of high-PV air into the cyclone center. This study introduces a Lagrangian method to determine the origin of the lower-tropospheric PV anomaly, which is applied climatologically to ERA5 reanalysis and to 12 monthly simulations, performed with the integrated forecasting system (IFS) model. We define and quantify so-called “cyclonic” and “environmental” PV and find that the main part of the lower-tropospheric PV anomaly (60 %) is produced within the cyclone, shortly prior (−12 h) to the cyclones' mature stage. Nevertheless, in 19.5 % of the cyclones the environmental PV production near the mountains surrounding the Mediterranean Basin plays a significant role in forming the low-tropospheric PV anomaly and therefore in determining the intensity of these cyclones. The analysis of PV tendencies from the IFS simulations reveals that the major PV production inside the cyclone is typically due to convection and microphysics, whereas convection and turbulent momentum tendencies cause most of the positive PV changes in the environment.</p

Heavy rainfall in Mediterranean cyclones. Part I: contribution of deep convection and warm conveyor belt

In this study, we provide an insight to the role of deep convection (DC) and the warm conveyor belt (WCB) as leading processes to Mediterranean cyclones’ heavy rainfall. To this end, we use reanalysis da-ta, lighting and satellite observations to quantify the relative contribution of DC and the WCB to cyclone rainfall, as well as to analyse the spatial and temporal variability of these processes with respect to the cy-clone centre and life cycle. Results for the period 2005-2015 show that the relationship between cyclone rainfall and intensity has high variability and demonstrate that even intense cyclones may produce low rainfall amounts. However, when considering rainfall averages for cyclone intensity bins, a linear relationship was found. We focus on the 500 most intense tracked cyclones (responsible for about 40-50% of the total 11-year Mediterrane-an rainfall) and distinguish between the ones producing high and low rainfall amounts. DC and the WCB are found to be the main cause of rainfall for the former (producing up to 70% of cyclone rainfall), while, for the latter, DC and the WCB play a secondary role (producing up to 50% of rainfall). Further analysis showed that rainfall due to DC tends to occur close to the cyclones’ centre and to their eastern sides, while the WCBs tend to produce rainfall towards the northeast. In fact, about 30% of rainfall produced by DC overlaps with rainfall produced by WCBs but this represents only about 8% of rainfall produced by WCBs. This suggests that a considerable percentage of DC is associated with embedded convection in WCBs. Finally, DC was found to be able to produce higher rain rates than WCBs, exceeding 50 mm in 3-hourly accumulated rainfall compared to a maximum of the order of 40 mm for WCBs. Our results demonstrate in a climatological framework the relationship between cyclone intensity and pro-cesses that lead to heavy rainfall, one of the most prominent environmental risks in the Mediterranean. Therefore, we set perspectives for a deeper analysis of the favourable atmospheric conditions that yield high impact weather

Process-based classification of Mediterranean cyclones using potential vorticity

This is the final version. Available on open access from Copernicus Publications via the DOI in this recordCode availability:The code for the SOM classification algorithm is openly available at https://www.mathworks.com/help/deeplearning/gs/cluster-data-with-a-self-organizingmap.html (last access: 29 January 2024).Data availability: The composite cyclone tracks with the resulting cluster attribution are available in the supplementary assets of this paper. The track labels correspond to the composite cyclone track dataset at confidence level 5, made available as a Supplement by Flaounas et al. (2023) (“TRACKS_CL5.dat”).Mediterranean cyclones (MCs) govern extreme weather events across the Euro-African Basin, affecting the lives of hundreds of millions. Despite many studies addressing MCs in the last few decades, their correct simulation and prediction remain a significant challenge to the present day, which may be attributed to the large variability among MCs. Past classifications of MCs are primarily based on geographical and/or seasonal separations; however, here we focus on cyclone genesis and deepening mechanisms. A variety of processes combine to govern MC genesis and evolution, including adiabatic and diabatic processes, topographic influences, land-sea contrasts, and local temperature anomalies. As each process bears a distinct signature on the potential vorticity (PV) field, a PV approach is used to distinguish among different "types"of MCs. Here, a combined cyclone-tracking algorithm is used to detect 3190 Mediterranean cyclone tracks in ECMWF ERA5 from 1979-2020. Cyclone-centered, upper-level isentropic PV structures in the peak time of each cyclone track are classified using a self-organizing map (SOM). The SOM analysis reveals nine classes of Mediterranean cyclones, with distinct Rossby-wave-breaking patterns, discernible in corresponding PV structures. Although classified by upper-level PV structures, each class shows different contributions of lower-tropospheric PV and flow structures down to the surface. Unique cyclone life cycle characteristics, associated hazards (precipitation, winds, and temperature anomalies), and long-term trends, as well as synoptic, thermal, dynamical, seasonal, and geographical features of each cyclone class, indicate dominant processes in their evolution. Among others, the classification reveals the importance of topographically induced Rossby wave breaking to the generation of the most extreme Mediterranean cyclones. These results enhance our understanding of MC predictability by linking the large-scale Rossby wave formations and life cycles to coherent classes of under-predicted cyclone aspects.de Botton Center for Marine ScienceIsraeli Council for Higher Education (CHE)Weizmann Data Science Research CenterWeizmann Institute Sustainability and Energy Research Initiative (SAERI

Future projections of Mediterranean cyclone characteristics using the Med-CORDEX ensemble of coupled regional climate system models

Here, we analyze future projections of cyclone activity in the Mediterranean region at the end of the twenty-first century based on an ensemble of state-of-the-art fully-coupled Regional Climate System Models (RCSMs) from the Med-CORDEX initiative under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. Despite some noticeable biases, all the RCSMs capture spatial patterns and cyclone activity key characteristics in the region and thus all of them can be considered as plausible representations of the future evolution of Mediterranean cyclones. In general, the RCSMs show at the end of the twenty-first century a decrease in the number and an overall weakening of cyclones moving across the Mediterranean. Five out of seven RCSMs simulate also a decrease of the mean size of the systems. Moreover, in agreement with what already observed in CMIP5 projections for the area, the models suggest an increase in the Central part of the Mediterranean region and a decrease in the South-eastern part of the region in the cyclone-related wind speed and precipitation rate. These rather two opposite tendencies observed in the precipitation should compensate and amplify, respectively, the effect of the overall reduction of the frequency of cyclones on the water budget over the Central and South-eastern part of the region. A pronounced inter-model spread among the RCSMs emerges for the projected changes in the cyclone adjusted deepening rate, seasonal cycle occurrence and associated precipitation and wind patterns over some areas of the basin such as Ionian Sea and Iberian Peninsula. The differences observed appear to be determined by the driving Global Circulation Model (GCM) and influenced by the RCSM physics and internal variability. These results point to the importance of (1) better characterizing the range of plausible futures by relying on ensembles of models that explore well the existing diversity of GCMs and RCSMs as well as the climate natural variability and (2) better understanding the driving mechanisms of the future evolution of Mediterranean cyclones properties