Searching for Earthquake Sources in the Lower Tagus Valley (Portugal): First Results from the ATESTA Project

The area of Lisbon has been struck by destructive earthquakes in the past and with very intense consequences. As of today, two main areas host active faults with concern for the region: offshore with the still unclear source of the famous and catastrophic 1755 earthquake and inland with the Lower Tagus Valley where unknown fault(s) have produced the 1909 and 1531 events with estimated magnitudes ranging from 6 to 7. Those latter events are of particular importance due to their location within an area that is now densely populated. The repetition of such a shock today would have a barely imaginable impact on the population and economy of Portugal. An apparent paradox is that in spite of the high stake and expected impact on the Greater Lisbon area, little is known about the source fault(s) of the 1531 and 1909 earthquakes in terms of location, dimensions, maximum magnitude, slip rate and recurrence period. The ATESTA Project aims at answering those questions by deploying an integrated paleoseismological approach to the Lower Tagus Valley. By combining detailed geomorphological mapping using high-resolution digital eleva- tion models with shallow geophysical imaging (reflection seismics, electrical tomography and ground-penetrating radar), our goal is to identify the continuation of crustal faults at the surface. Paleoseismic trenching is conse- quently used to characterize surface rupture in terms of large recent events. Preliminary results suggest the presence of several fault trace in the Lower Tagus Valley outlined by uplifted ter- races and offset streams and visible in satellite images and the national 10-m-resolution digital elevation model. Those fault traces correspond to structures at depth, as identified by geophysical imaging

Long-term slip history discriminates among occurrence models for seismic hazard assessment

We propose a Bayesian framework for the combination of catalogs of large earthquakes and dated cumulative slip data. It provides a quantitative way of discriminating or ranking the different renewal models. Indeed, once the datasets and priors are chosen, no additional expert opinion is required, and the ranking comes out of the Bayes factors directly. This way, the experience of experts is valorized, but the effects of group dynamics do not directly influence the weighing of the different candidate models

Integrating laboratory creep compaction data with numerical fault models: A Bayesian framework

We developed a robust Bayesian inversion scheme to plan and analyze laboratory creep compaction experiments. We chose a simple creep law that features the main parameters of interest when trying to identify rate-controlling mechanisms from experimental data. By integrating the chosen creep law or an approximation thereof, one can use all the data, either simultaneously or in overlapping subsets, thus making more complete use of the experiment data and propagating statistical variations in the data through to the final rate constants. Despite the nonlinearity of the problem, with this technique one can retrieve accurate estimates of both the stress exponent and the activation energy, even when the porosity time series data are noisy. Whereas adding observation points and/or experiments reduces the uncertainty on all parameters, enlarging the range of temperature or effective stress significantly reduces the covariance between stress exponent and activation energy. We apply this methodology to hydrothermal creep compaction data on quartz to obtain a quantitative, semiempirical law for fault zone compaction in the interseismic period. Incorporating this law into a simple direct rupture model, we find marginal distributions of the time to failure that are robust with respect to errors in the initial fault zone porosity

Seismic precursors linked to super-critical fluids at oceanic transform faults

Large earthquakes on mid-ocean ridge transform faults are commonly preceded by foreshocks1, 2, 3 and changes in the seismic properties of the fault zone3. These seismic precursors could be linked to fluid-related processes2, 3. Hydrothermal fluids within young, hot crust near the intersection of oceanic transform faults are probably in a supercritical condition4. At constant temperature, supercritical fluids become significantly more compressible with decreasing pressure, with potential impacts on fault behaviour. Here we use a theoretical model to show that oceanic transform faults can switch from dilatant and progressive deformation to rupture in response to fluid-related processes. We assume that the fault core material behaves according to a Cam-clay-type5 constitutive law, which is commonly used to account for the behaviour of clays. According to our model, we find that the fault is initially stable, with stresses gradually increasing over a timescale of years in response to tectonic loading. The fault evolves into a metastable phase, lasting a few days, during which the fault rocks dilate and pore pressures decrease, causing the compressibility of the supercritical fluids to increase. This in turn triggers fault-slip instability that creates foreshock swarms. In the final phase, the fault fails in the mainshock rupture. Our results imply that seismic precursors are caused by changes in fluid pressure which result in variations in fluid compressibility, in response to rock deformation just before rupture