Rainfall seasonality captured in micromammalian fauna in Late Quaternary contexts, South Africa

There exists ongoing debate regarding shifts in the latitudinal extent of the southern African winter-rainfall zone throughout the late Quaternary. Fossil proxies which can be related directly to rainfall seasonality have the potential to assist in quantifying these shifts. Relationships between mean monthly temperature and mean monthly rainfall in modern environments are quantified to generate a seasonality index associated with summer- or winter-rainfall. These seasonality indices can in turn be related to percentage occurrences reflecting relative abundances of rodent taxa represented in areas within southern Africa. Such data are used together to obtain an equation from which an index of seasonality in rainfall can be calculated, based on relative abundances of rodents in the modern landscape. The equation is applied to rodents represented in a Late Quaternary faunal sequence at Boomplaas Cave in the south-eastern part of the Western Cape Province. Results confirm that this region experienced a predominantly winter-rainfall regime during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), though the amount of rain may have been relatively low for the coldest episodes circa 20,000 cal. yr BP in the Boomplaas palaeo-environments.National Research Foundation, Andrew Mellon Foundatio

Rainfall seasonality captured in micromammalian fauna in Late Quaternary contexts, South Africa

There exists ongoing debate regarding shifts in the latitudinal extent of the southern African winter-rainfall zone throughout the late Quaternary. Fossil proxies which can be related directly to rainfall seasonality have the potential to assist in quantifying these shifts. Relationships between mean monthly temperature and mean monthly rainfall in modern environments are quantified to generate a seasonality index associated with summer- or winter-rainfall. These seasonality indices can in turn be related to percentage occurrences reflecting relative abundances of rodent taxa represented in areas within southern Africa. Such data are used together to obtain an equation from which an index of seasonality in rainfall can be calculated, based on relative abundances of rodents in the modern landscape. The equation is applied to rodents represented in a Late Quaternary faunal sequence at Boomplaas Cave in the south-eastern part of the Western Cape Province. Results confirm that this region experienced a predominantly winter-rainfall regime during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), though the amount of rain may have been relatively low for the coldest episodes circa 20,000 cal. yr BP in the Boomplaas palaeo-environments.National Research Foundation, Andrew Mellon Foundatio

Construction and testing of a low-cost device for the collection of rainfall samples destined for stable isotope analysis

Oxygen- and hydrogen-isotope ratios in rainfall provide important hydroclimatic information, yet despite a global network of rainfall isotope measurements, significant geographical gaps exist in data coverage, with only three long-term stations spanning the southern African region. Project-based, ad hoc collections of rainfall for isotope analysis can improve this coverage. However, all rainfall samples that are destined for stable isotope analysis must be collected in such a way to avoid evaporation and resultant isotope fractionation. While such rainwater collectors are available commercially, both the product and shipping are prohibitively costly. We describe the construction of a simple rainfall collector using a design from the literature and materials that are readily available in South African hardware stores. Our rainwater collector can be constructed for the much lower cost of just under ZAR820 in comparison with the cost of ZAR9300 inclusive of shipping from commercial outlets (2022 prices). Our design modifications have the added advantage of portability, with the rainwater collector housed in a bucket with a handle. The device was tested by comparing its performance, in terms of evaporative water loss and isotopic fractionation, with that of an open bottle, using tap water in both cases. Testing confirmed that the collector prevented evaporation over a one-week period, indicating that it is suitable for weekly or more frequent sampling of rainfall. Although the design described was based on materials procured in South Africa, it could easily be adapted for construction elsewhere

Insight into American tourists experiences with weather in South Africa

Weather and climate are often important factors determining the success of a tourism destination and resultant satisfaction among tourists. This is particularly true for South Africa due the predominance of outdoor tourist attractions. Increasing numbers of international tourists have visited South Africa since the fall of apartheid, particularly those from the United States (U.S.), which is an important market for South African tourism. Therefore, this paper seeks to examine a sample of American tourists experience with day-to-day weather and climatic conditions in South Africa. The results show that although respondents did not feel that climatic conditions were an important factor in motivations to visit the country, the day-to-day weather did often impact the enjoyment of their visit. Most notably, weather controlled their ability to participate in outdoor activities. In correlating accounts of unpleasant weather conditions with the meteorological records, a close association emerged, particularly for excessively high temperatures. This indicates that the experiences of American tourists are an accurate indication of climatic unsuitability for tourism, which poses threats to the South African outdoor tourism sector.

Perspectives on Second Homes, Climate Change and Tourism in South Africa.

Second homes tourism comprises an important component of the discourse in tourism geographies, since its re-emergence in the literature in the late 1990s. Second homes are often situated in amenity-rich areas within pristine natural environments along coastal areas, river banks and lakes. However, these ‘untouched’ environments within remote rural municipalities are often characterised by limited financial capital and thus a weakened adaptive capacity to adapt to the increasing threats of sea level rise, flooding, drought and storms, which are projected to amplify in severity and frequency under climate change. Second homes often involve large onceoff capital investments, which coupled with their permanent physical location heightens the climate change vulnerability of the owners. We therefore argue that second homes tourism is particularly vulnerable to the threats of climate change. This article considers the potential impact of climate change on second homes in a variety of localities in South Africa, through a critical integration of the existing literature on both second homes and climate change and tourism for South Africa. Through outlining the key areas of concern, the researchers map out possible adaptation strategies for second home owners

Construction and testing of a low-cost device for the collection of rainfall samples destined for stable isotope analysis

Oxygen- and hydrogen-isotope ratios in rainfall provide important hydroclimatic information, yet despite a global network of rainfall isotope measurements, significant geographical gaps exist in data coverage, with only three long-term stations spanning the southern African region. Project-based, ad hoc collections of rainfall for isotope analysis can improve this coverage. However, all rainfall samples that are destined for stable isotope analysis must be collected in such a way to avoid evaporation and resultant isotope fractionation. While such rainwater collectors are available commercially, both the product and shipping are prohibitively costly. We describe the construction of a simple rainfall collector using a design from the literature and materials that are readily available in South African hardware stores. Our rainwater collector can be constructed for the much lower cost of just under ZAR820 in comparison with the cost of ZAR9300 inclusive of shipping from commercial outlets (2022 prices). Our design modifications have the added advantage of portability, with the rainwater collector housed in a bucket with a handle. The device was tested by comparing its performance, in terms of evaporative water loss and isotopic fractionation, with that of an open bottle, using tap water in both cases. Testing confirmed that the collector prevented evaporation over a one-week period, indicating that it is suitable for weekly or more frequent sampling of rainfall. Although the design described was based on materials procured in South Africa, it could easily be adapted for construction elsewhere. Significance: • Hydrogen and oxygen isotope composition of rainfall provides valuable climatic information. • Rainwater collectors for stable isotope samples must prevent evaporation, as evaporation will alter the isotopic signature. • We describe the construction and testing of a bespoke, low-cost and portable device that can be used to collect rainfall samples destined for oxygen- and hydrogen-isotope analysis without significant evaporation

Winter is coming: A southern hemisphere perspective of the environmental drivers of sars-cov-2 and the potential seasonality of covid-19

SARS-CoV-2 virus infections in humans were first reported in December 2019, the boreal winter. The resulting COVID-19 pandemic was declared by the WHO in March 2020. By July 2020, COVID-19 was present in 213 countries and territories, with over 12 million confirmed cases and over half a million attributed deaths. Knowledge of other viral respiratory diseases suggests that the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 could be modulated by seasonally varying environmental factors such as temperature and humidity. Many studies on the environmental sensitivity of COVID-19 are appearing online, and some have been published in peer-reviewed journals. Initially, these studies raised the hypothesis that climatic conditions would subdue the viral transmission rate in places entering the boreal summer, and that southern hemisphere countries would experience enhanced disease spread. For the latter, the COVID-19 peak would coincide with the peak of the influenza season, increasing misdiagnosis and placing an additional burden on health systems. In this review, we assess the evidence that environmental drivers are a significant factor in the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic, globally and regionally. We critically assessed 42 peer-reviewed and 80 preprint publications that met qualifying criteria

Sustainable care for children with cancer: a Lancet Oncology Commission.

We estimate that there will be 13·7 million new cases of childhood cancer globally between 2020 and 2050. At current levels of health system performance (including access and referral), 6·1 million (44·9%) of these children will be undiagnosed. Between 2020 and 2050, 11·1 million children will die from cancer if no additional investments are made to improve access to health-care services or childhood cancer treatment. Of this total, 9·3 million children (84·1%) will be in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. This burden could be vastly reduced with new funding to scale up cost-effective interventions. Simultaneous comprehensive scale-up of interventions could avert 6·2 million deaths in children with cancer in this period, more than half (56·1%) of the total number of deaths otherwise projected. Taking excess mortality risk into consideration, this reduction in the number of deaths is projected to produce a gain of 318 million life-years. In addition, the global lifetime productivity gains of US$2580 billion in 2020-50 would be four times greater than the cumulative treatment costs of$594 billion, producing a net benefit of $1986 billion on the global investment: a net return of$3 for every $1 invested. In sum, the burden of childhood cancer, which has been grossly underestimated in the past, can be effectively diminished to realise massive health and economic benefits and to avert millions of needless deaths

Future and potential spending on health 2015-40: Development assistance for health, and government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending in 184 countries

Background: The amount of resources, particularly prepaid resources, available for health can affect access to health care and health outcomes. Although health spending tends to increase with economic development, tremendous variation exists among health financing systems. Estimates of future spending can be beneficial for policy makers and planners, and can identify financing gaps. In this study, we estimate future gross domestic product (GDP), all-sector government spending, and health spending disaggregated by source, and we compare expected future spending to potential future spending. Methods: We extracted GDP, government spending in 184 countries from 1980-2015, and health spend data from 1995-2014. We used a series of ensemble models to estimate future GDP, all-sector government spending, development assistance for health, and government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending through 2040. We used frontier analyses to identify patterns exhibited by the countries that dedicate the most funding to health, and used these frontiers to estimate potential health spending for each low-income or middle-income country. All estimates are inflation and purchasing power adjusted. Findings: We estimated that global spending on health will increase from US$9.21 trillion in 2014 to$24.24 trillion (uncertainty interval [UI] 20.47-29.72) in 2040. We expect per capita health spending to increase fastest in upper-middle-income countries, at 5.3% (UI 4.1-6.8) per year. This growth is driven by continued growth in GDP, government spending, and government health spending. Lower-middle income countries are expected to grow at 4.2% (3.8-4.9). High-income countries are expected to grow at 2.1% (UI 1.8-2.4) and low-income countries are expected to grow at 1.8% (1.0-2.8). Despite this growth, health spending per capita in low-income countries is expected to remain low, at $154 (UI 133-181) per capita in 2030 and$195 (157-258) per capita in 2040. Increases in national health spending to reach the level of the countries who spend the most on health, relative to their level of economic development, would mean $321 (157-258) per capita was available for health in 2040 in low-income countries. Interpretation: Health spending is associated with economic development but past trends and relationships suggest that spending will remain variable, and low in some low-resource settings. Policy change could lead to increased health spending, although for the poorest countries external support might remain essential

Future and potential spending on health 2015-40 : development assistance for health, and government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending in 184 countries

Background The amount of resources, particularly prepaid resources, available for health can affect access to health care and health outcomes. Although health spending tends to increase with economic development, tremendous variation exists among health financing systems. Estimates of future spending can be beneficial for policy makers and planners, and can identify financing gaps. In this study, we estimate future gross domestic product (GDP), all-sector government spending, and health spending disaggregated by source, and we compare expected future spending to potential future spending. Methods We extracted GDP, government spending in 184 countries from 1980-2015, and health spend data from 1995-2014. We used a series of ensemble models to estimate future GDP, all-sector government spending, development assistance for health, and government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending through 2040. We used frontier analyses to identify patterns exhibited by the countries that dedicate the most funding to health, and used these frontiers to estimate potential health spending for each low-income or middle-income country. All estimates are inflation and purchasing power adjusted. Findings We estimated that global spending on health will increase from US$9.21 trillion in 2014 to$24.24 trillion (uncertainty interval [UI] 20.47-29.72) in 2040. We expect per capita health spending to increase fastest in upper-middle-income countries, at 5.3% (UI 4.1-6.8) per year. This growth is driven by continued growth in GDP, government spending, and government health spending. Lower-middle income countries are expected to grow at 4.2% (3.8-4.9). High-income countries are expected to grow at 2.1% (UI 1.8-2.4) and low-income countries are expected to grow at 1.8% (1.0-2.8). Despite this growth, health spending per capita in low-income countries is expected to remain low, at $154 (UI 133-181) per capita in 2030 and$195 (157-258) per capita in 2040. Increases in national health spending to reach the level of the countries who spend the most on health, relative to their level of economic development, would mean $321 (157-258) per capita was available for health in 2040 in low-income countries. Interpretation Health spending is associated with economic development but past trends and relationships suggest that spending will remain variable, and low in some low-resource settings. Policy change could lead to increased health spending, although for the poorest countries external support might remain essential.Peer reviewe