Performance evaluation of the WRF model under different physical schemes for air quality purposes in Buenos Aires, Argentina

Este trabajo presenta la evaluación de desempeño del Modelo para la Predicción e Investigación del Clima (WRF, por su sigla en inglés) para estimar la velocidad y dirección del viento, temperatura del aire y fracción de vapor de agua en superficie, considerando 22 configuraciones en alta resolución espacial (1 km) durante una semana de invierno y una de primavera, con el fin de determinar los esquemas que presentan mejor desempeño en el Área Metropolitana de Buenos Aires, Argentina, para ser utilizados en estudios de calidad del aire. Los resultados muestran que el uso de un esquema urbano afecta mayormente a la velocidad del viento y a la temperatura. El esquema urbano con una capa (UCM) acoplado con el esquema de capa límite (PBL) Boulac presenta el mejor desempeño para velocidad del viento. La dirección del viento y la fracción de vapor de agua son más sensibles al esquema de suelo, dando mejores resultados con el esquema de superficie Noah-Mp. Los errores tanto de dirección como de velocidad del viento son mayores cuando esta última toma valores pequeños. Al remover los valores de velocidad del viento menores a 2.6 m s–1 para la semana de invierno y 3.1 m s–1 para la de primavera, los errores cuadráticos de la dirección del viento decaen entre 50 y 72% de su valor original, dependiendo de la configuración y la semana. En general, en las condiciones estudiadas, las configuraciones que incluyen Noah-Mp o la combinación de Boulac con el esquema urbano simple son más adecuadas para utilizarse en estudios de calidad del aire, ya que reproducen de forma aceptable la temperatura y la fracción de vapor de agua con errores menores al 10% y Correlaciones mayores a 0.7, y poseen el mejor desempeño para dirección y velocidad del viento, respectivamente.This work presents the performance evaluation of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to estimate surface wind speed and direction, air temperature, and water vapor mixing ratio considering 22 configurations at high spatial resolution (1 km) during one week in winter and one week in spring, in order to determine the best-performing schemes for air quality purposes in the Metropolitan Area of Buenos Aires, Argentina. Results show that the use of urban schemes mostly affects wind speed and temperature. The single-layer urban canopy model (UCM) coupled with the Boulac planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme exhibits the best results for wind speed. Wind direction and water vapor mixing ratio are more sensitive to the land surface model scheme, with results slightly improving with the Noah-MP land surface model. Wind speed and direction errors are larger when the former is lower. When removing from the analysis wind speed values below 2.6 ms-1 for the winter week and 3.1 ms-1 for the spring week, the root mean square errors for wind direction decreased between 50 and 72% of the original value, depending on the configuration and week. Overall, under the studied conditions, configurations including Noah-Mp land surface model or the combination of a simple UCM with BouLac PBL are suitable for air quality applications, as they reproduce both temperature and water vapor mixing ratio relatively well, with errors below 10% and Correlation values above 0.7, and are the best performing configurations for wind direction and speed, respectively.Fil: Luque, Solange Elizabeth. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-argentino Sobre Estudios del Clima y Sus Impactos.; ArgentinaFil: Fita Borrell, Lluís. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-argentino Sobre Estudios del Clima y Sus Impactos.; ArgentinaFil: Pineda Rojas, Andrea Laura. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-argentino Sobre Estudios del Clima y Sus Impactos.; Argentin

Using WRF to generate high resolution offshore wind climatologies

Ponencia presentada en: VIII Congreso de la Asociación Española de Climatología celebrado en Salamanca entre el 25 y el 28 de septiembre de 2012.Recently, the demand of gridded wind datasets over sea areas has increased due to the ongoing development of offshore wind farms. Currently available reanalysis datasets do not have enough resolution to deal with complex coastlines and coastal topography, and these do interact with the winds and meteorological systems well into the open sea. Here we present the main characteristics of a high resolution wind climatology that has been produced using the Weather Research and Forecasting model to downscale the ERA-INTERIM reanalysis. The simulations were carried out in a domain covering the Mediterranean basin and most of Europe, and thus areas with different wind regimes. The model has been kept close to the driving reanalysis by restarting it daily, as this running mode provided better results than nudging techniques. Results show that WRF is able to produce realistic offshore wind climatologies, probabilistic wind distributions and annual cycle. It also reproduces well-known regional winds remarkably well.This paper is a contribution to the financed projects by the Spanish government CORWES (CGL2010-22158-C02-01), WRF4G (CGL2010-22158-C02-01), EXTREMBLES (CGL2010-21869), C3E (200800050084091), iMar21 (CTM201015009) and MARUCA (E17/08), and was partially funded by projects ‘MAREN’ (Atlantic Area Transnational Programme) and ‘CoCoNet’ (FP7-OCEAN-2011)

WRF4G: WRF experiment management made simple

his work presents a framework, WRF4G, to manage the experiment workflow of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) modelling system. WRF4G provides a flexible design, execution and monitoring for a general class of scientific experiments. It has been designed with the aim of facilitating the management and reproducibility of complex experiments. Furthermore, the concepts behind the design of this framework can be straightforwardly extended to other modelsThis work has been supported by the Spanish National R&D Plan under projects WRF4G (CGL2011-28864, co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund –ERDF–) and CORWES (CGL2010-22158-C02-01) and the IS-ENES2 project from the 7FP of the European Commission (grant agreement no. 312979). C. Blanco acknowledges financial support 5 from programa de Personal Investigador en Formación Predoctoral from Universidad de Cantabria, co-funded by the regional government of Cantabria. The authors are thankful to the developers of third party software (e.g. GridWay, WRFV3, python and NetCDF), which was intensively used in this work

Observed and Projected Hydroclimate Changes in the Andes

The Andes is the most biodiverse region across the globe. In addition, some of the largest urban areas in South America are located within this region. Therefore, ecosystems and human population are affected by hydroclimate changes reported at global, regional and local scales. This paper summarizes progress of knowledge about long-term trends observed during the last two millennia over the entire Andes, with more detail for the period since the second half of the 20th century, and presents a synthesis of climate change projections by the end of the 21st century. In particular, this paper focuses on temperature, precipitation and surface runoff in the Andes. Changes in the Andean cryosphere are not included here since this particular topic is discussed in other paper in this Frontiers special issue, and elsewhere (e.g. IPCC,2019b). While previous works have reviewed the hydroclimate of South America and particular sectors (i.e., Amazon and La Plata basins, the Altiplano, Northern South America, etc.) this review includes for the first time the entire Andes region, considering all latitudinal ranges: tropical (North of 27°S), subtropical (27°S−37°S) and extratropical (South of 37°S). This paper provides a comprehensive view of past and recent changes, as well as available climate change projections, over the entire Andean range. From this review, the main knowledge gaps are highlighted and urgent research necessities in order to provide more mechanistic understanding of hydroclimate changes in the Andes and more confident projections of its possible changes in association with global climate change.Fil: Pabón Caicedo, José Daniel. Universidad Nacional de Colombia; ColombiaFil: Arias, Paola A.. Universidad de Antioquia; ColombiaFil: Carril, Andrea Fabiana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Espinoza, Jhan Carlo. Universite Grenoble Alpes; FranciaFil: Fita Borrell, Lluís. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Goubanova, Katerina. Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Zonas Áridas; ChileFil: Lavado Casimiro, Waldo. No especifíca;Fil: Masiokas, Mariano Hugo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; ArgentinaFil: Solman, Silvina Alicia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Villalba, Ricardo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; Argentin

Escenarios-PNACC 2012: resultados de regionalización dinámica

Ponencia presentada en: VIII Congreso de la Asociación Española de Climatología celebrado en Salamanca entre el 25 y el 28 de septiembre de 2012.[ES]Este trabajo describe los resultados de la regionalización dinámica de escenarios del AR4 llevada a cabo en el marco del proyecto ESCENA, que es una colaboración de las universidades de Castilla- La Mancha, Cantabria, Murcia y Alcalá de Henares para contribuir a los escenarios regionales del Plan Nacional de Adaptación al Cambio Climático (Escenarios-PNACC 2012). Los resultados cubren tres escenarios de emisiones (A1B, A2 y B1) y tres modelos globales diferentes (ECHAM5, HadCM3 y Arpege), regionalizados por 4 modelos regionales diferentes (PROMES, WRF, MM5 y REMO) para el periodo 1951-2050. Esta contribución detalla las características de los productos generados en el proyecto, y que se encuentran a disposición de los usuarios.[EN]This work summarizes the dynamical downscaling of the AR4 climate change scenarios carried out in the framework of the ESCENA project. This project is a collaborative effort of the Universities of Castilla-La Mancha, Cantabria, Murcia and Alcalá de Henares, in order to contribute to the regional scenarios of the Plan Nacional de Adaptación al Cambio Climático (Escenarios-PNACC 2012). The results of this project cover three emissions scenarios (SRES A1B, A2 and B1) and three different global climate models (ECHAM5, HadCM3 and Arpege), downscaled by means of 4 different regional climate models (PROMES, WRF, MM5 and REMO) for the period 1951-2050. This communication summarizes the main features of the products generated within this project. These products are publicly available for end-users.Este trabajo ha sido financiado por el Ministerio de Medio Ambiente, Medio Rural y Marino, dentro de la acción estratégica Energía y Cambio Climático (proyecto ESCENA, “Generación de escenarios regionalizados de cambio climático en España con modelos de alta resolución”, Ref: 200800050084265)

The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution, part I: Evaluation of precipitation

Here we present the first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale horizontal grid spacing over a decade long period. A total of 23 simulations run with a horizontal grid spacing of ∼ 3 km, driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis, and performed by 22 European research groups are analysed. Six different regional climate models (RCMs) are represented in the ensemble. The simulations are compared against available high-resolution precipitation observations and coarse resolution (∼ 12 km) RCMs with parameterized convection. The model simulations and observations are compared with respect to mean precipitation, precipitation intensity and frequency, and heavy precipitation on daily and hourly timescales in different seasons. The results show that kilometer-scale models produce a more realistic representation of precipitation than the coarse resolution RCMs. The most significant improvements are found for heavy precipitation and precipitation frequency on both daily and hourly time scales in the summer season. In general, kilometer-scale models tend to produce more intense precipitation and reduced wet-hour frequency compared to coarse resolution models. On average, the multi-model mean shows a reduction of bias from ∼ −40% at 12 km to ∼ −3% at 3 km for heavy hourly precipitation in summer. Furthermore, the uncertainty ranges i.e. the variability between the models for wet hour frequency is reduced by half with the use of kilometer-scale models. Although differences between the model simulations at the kilometer-scale and observations still exist, it is evident that these simulations are superior to the coarse-resolution RCM simulations in the representing precipitation in the present-day climate, and thus offer a promising way forward for investigations of climate and climate change at local to regional scales.Fil: Ban, Nikolina. Universidad de Innsbruck; AustriaFil: Caillaud, Cécile. Université de Toulouse; FranciaFil: Coppola, Erika. The Abdus Salam. International Centre for Theoretical Physics; Italia. The Abdus Salam; ItaliaFil: Pichelli, Emanuela. The Abdus Salam; Italia. The Abdus Salam. International Centre for Theoretical Physics; ItaliaFil: Sobolowski, Stefan. Norwegian Research Centre; NoruegaFil: Adinolfi, Marianna. Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui cambiamenti climatici; ItaliaFil: Ahrens, Bodo. Goethe Universitat Frankfurt; AlemaniaFil: Alias, Antoinette. Université de Toulouse; FranciaFil: Anders, Ivonne. German Climate Computing Center; AlemaniaFil: Bastin, Sophie. Universite Paris-Saclay;Fil: Belušić, Danijel. Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute; SuizaFil: Berthou, Ségolène. Met Office Hadley Centre; Reino UnidoFil: Brisson, Erwan. Université de Toulouse; FranciaFil: Cardoso, Rita M.. Universidade Nova de Lisboa; PortugalFil: Chan, Steven C.. University of Newcastle; Reino UnidoFil: Christensen, Ole Bøssing. Danish Meteorological Institute; DinamarcaFil: Fernández, Jesús. Universidad de Cantabria; EspañaFil: Fita Borrell, Lluís. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; Argentina. Instituto Franco-Argentino sobre Estudios del Clima y sus Impactos; ArgentinaFil: Frisius, Thomas. Helmholtz Gemeinschaft; AlemaniaFil: Gaparac, Goran. Croatia Control Ltd.; CroaciaFil: Giorgi, Filippo. The Abdus Salam. International Centre for Theoretical Physics; Italia. The Abdus Salam; ItaliaFil: Goergen, Klaus. Centre for High-Performance Scientific Computing in Terrestrial Systems; Alemania. Helmholtz Gemeinschaft. Forschungszentrum Jülich; AlemaniaFil: Haugen, Jan Erik. Norwegian Meteorological Institute; NoruegaFil: Hodnebrog, Øivind. Center for International Climate and Environmental Research-Oslo; NoruegaFil: Kartsios, Stergios. Aristotle University Of Thessaloniki; GreciaFil: Katragkou, Eleni. Aristotle University Of Thessaloniki; GreciaFil: Kendon, Elizabeth J.. Met Office Hadley Centre; Reino UnidoFil: Keuler, Klaus. Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus-Senftenberg; AlemaniaFil: Lavin Gullon, Alvaro. Universidad de Cantabria; EspañaFil: Lenderink, Geert. Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute; Países Bajo

Advancing South American Water and Climate Science through Multidecadal Convection-Permitting Modeling

South America’s hydroclimate sustains vibrant communities and natural ecosystems of extraordinary biodiversity including the Andes Cordillera, and the Orinoco, La Plata, and Amazon basins. Global warming and land-use change are endangering ecosystem health, exacerbating hydrometeorological extremes, and threatening water and food security for millions of people on the continent (Castellanos et al. 2022). Reductions in rainfall and streamflow have been observed in southern Amazonia, the Cerrado region, northeast Brazil, and Chile (Muñoz et al. 2020; Garreaud et al. 2020; Espinoza et al. 2019; Fu et al. 2013). The increased aridity has affected agricultural yield, water supply for reservoirs, hydropower generation and impacted tens of millions of people in the large metropolitan areas of Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, and Santiago de Chile (Nobre et al. 2016). Andean glaciers, an important source of water, have lost 30% of their area in the tropics and up to 60% in the southern Andes—the highest glacier mass loss rates in the world (Braun et al. 2019; Dussaillant et al. 2019; Reinthaler et al. 2019; Masiokas et al. 2020; Fox-Kemper et al. 2021). Conversely, southeastern South America is facing increasing annual rainfall and intensification of heavy precipitation since the early twentieth century (Doyle et al. 2012; Barros et al. 2015; Pabón-Caicedo et al. 2020; Arias et al. 2021; Gutiérrez et al. 2021; Morales-Yokobori 2021; Seneviratne et al. 2021). Extreme precipitation is projected to intensify throughout the continent (Arias et al. 2021; Seneviratne et al. 2021). This poses significant risk to people and infrastructure along the Andes and other mountainous areas, particularly for lower-income communities living in informal housing (Poveda et al. 2020; Ozturk et al. 2022). The overarching goals of the SAAG community are twofold: improved physical understanding and application-relevant research. Two multidecadal convection-permitting simulations are at the heart of SAAG. The historical simulation will allow us to validate the model and better understand detailed hydroclimate features over the continent, while the future climate simulation will show the projected changes of these features in a warmer climate. Furthermore, SAAG scientists are working directly with local communities, so the information can be used for improved decision making. The specific goals and science questions are as follows; goal 1 Physical understanding: Advance insights and improve prediction of key hydroclimate processes in the region including projected changes in a changing climate and Goal 2, Provide information that can be used by local communities and stakeholders for better informed decision-making in a changing climate

Numerical study of intense cyclogenesis events in the Mediterranean basin 

[cat] S'han estudiat diverses ciclogènesis mediterrànies mitjançant el model atmosfèric MM5, la inversió de vorticitat potencial per peces i la tècnica de la separació de factors. Els resultats mostren com a agents per a una ciclogènesi intensa: anomalia a nivells alts; confrontació de masses d'aire càlides i fredes a nivells baixos, desenvolupament baroclí; processos diabàtics; el mar; efectes topogràfics; baixa tèrmica; fluxes de calor superficials i les condicions atmosfèriques de l'entorn. S'ha verificat el comportament quasi-tropical dels medicans, com a mescla de la interació mar-aire i l'existència d'una anomalia de nivells alts, amb una evolució diferent a la dels huracans. S'ha observat l'impacte en les simulacions de medicanes d'assimilar informació de satèl·lit i de descàrregues elèctriques. S'han desenvolupat millores o nous usos d'algunes tècniques emprades: quantificació energètica de la modificació derivada de la inversió de vorticitat potencial, l'ús lagrangià de la separació de factors, modificacions a parts del MM5

Medicanes as subtropical cyclones: the December 2005 case from the perspective of surface pressure tendency diagnostics and atmospheric water budget

Mediterranean cyclones with tropical-like characteristics such as spiral cloud coverage and a central cloud-free “eye” are referred to as medicanes. These systems have been analyzed due to their relation with high-impact weather. In previous studies, the identification of medicanes has been typically performed subjectively, using satellite pictures, but also objectively through three-dimensional diagnosis of a warm core and an axisymmetric structure. Despite the presence of these characteristics, it is still unclear if medicanes show dynamical similarities with tropical cyclones. We analyse the (thermo-)dynamics of a recognized medicane that occurred in December 2005 by applying different diagnostics to a high-resolution simulation. These diagnostics are focused on the intensification, dynamical structure and water budget of this representative case, aiming to highlight extratropical and tropical cyclone characteristics. Three stages in the medicane life cycle are identified. In stage I, a potential vorticity (PV) streamer reaches the Mediterranean, triggering deep convection and deepening the medicane's central surface pressure due to diabatic heating. When the lowest central pressure is reached (stage II), the medicane presents a warm core and an axisymmetric structure. However, convection is rather weak and the PV streamer evolves into a cut-off system which contributes to the deepening of the medicane's surface pressure. Finally, stage III corresponds to the decay phase where the medicane tends to weaken and lose its axisymmetric structure. Our results highlight the detrimental role of deep convection prior to the mature stage of the medicane, as well as the possibility of positive or negative feedback of upper-tropospheric dynamics on the central surface pressure. In addition, we show that the medicane warm core might be achieved due to front seclusion, while the “eye” formation is associated with dry air intrusions. Our analysis suggests that medicanes are hybrid systems combining characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones and thus they plausibly correspond to subtropical cyclones.Fil: Fita Borrell, Lluís. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera; ArgentinaFil: Flaounas, E.. National Observatory of Athens; Greci