The impact of COVID-19 related regulations and restrictions on mobility and potential for sustained climate mitigation across the Netherlands, Sweden and the UK

Human behaviour change is necessary to meet targets set by the Paris Agreement to mitigate climate change. Restrictions and regulations put in place globally to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 during 2020 have had a substantial impact on everyday life, including many carbon-intensive behaviours such as transportation. Changes to transportation behaviour may reduce carbon emissions. Behaviour change theory can offer perspective on the drivers and influences of behaviour and shape recommendations for how policy-makers can capitalise on any observed behaviour changes that may mitigate climate change. For this commentary, we aimed to describe changes in data relating to transportation behaviours concerning working from home during the COVID-19 pandemic across the Netherlands, Sweden and the UK. We display these identified changes in a concept map, suggesting links between the changes in behaviour and levels of carbon emissions. We consider these changes in relation to a comprehensive and easy to understand model of behaviour, the Opportunity, Motivation Behaviour (COM-B) model, to understand the capabilities, opportunities and behaviours related to the observed behaviour changes and potential policy to mitigate climate change. There is now an opportunity for policy-makers to increase the likelihood of maintaining pro-environmental behaviour changes by providing opportunities, improving capabilities and maintaining motivation for these behaviours

Energy Metabolism, Metabolite, and Inflammatory Profiles in Human Ex Vivo Adipose Tissue Are Influenced by Obesity Status, Metabolic Dysfunction, and Treatment Regimes in Patients with Oesophageal Adenocarcinoma

Oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC) is a poor prognosis cancer with limited response rates to current treatment modalities and has a strong link to obesity. To better elucidate the role of visceral adiposity in this disease state, a full metabolic profile combined with analysis of secreted pro-inflammatory cytokines, metabolites, and lipid profiles were assessed in human ex vivo adipose tissue explants from obese and non-obese OAC patients. These data were then related to extensive clinical data including obesity status, metabolic dysfunction, previous treatment exposure, and tumour regression grades. Real-time energy metabolism profiles were assessed using the seahorse technology. Adipose explant conditioned media was screened using multiplex ELISA to assess secreted levels of 54 pro-inflammatory mediators. Targeted secreted metabolite and lipid profiles were analysed using Ultra-High-Performance Liquid Chromatography coupled with Mass Spectrometry. Adipose tissue explants and matched clinical data were collected from OAC patients (n = 32). Compared to visceral fat from non-obese patients (n = 16), visceral fat explants from obese OAC patients (n = 16) had significantly elevated oxidative phosphorylation metabolism profiles and an increase in Eotaxin-3, IL-17A, IL-17D, IL-3, MCP-1, and MDC and altered secretions of glutamine associated metabolites. Adipose explants from patients with metabolic dysfunction correlated with increased oxidative phosphorylation metabolism, and increases in IL-5, IL-7, SAA, VEGF-C, triacylglycerides, and metabolites compared with metabolically healthy patients. Adipose explants generated from patients who had previously received neo-adjuvant chemotherapy (n = 14) showed elevated secretions of pro-inflammatory mediators, IL-12p40, IL-1α, IL-22, and TNF-β and a decreased expression of triacylglycerides. Furthermore, decreased secreted levels of triacylglycerides were also observed in the adipose secretome of patients who received the chemotherapy-only regimen FLOT compared with patients who received no neo-adjuvant treatment or chemo-radiotherapy regimen CROSS. For those patients who showed the poorest response to currently available treatments, their adipose tissue was associated with higher glycolytic metabolism compared to patients who had good treatment responses. This study demonstrates that the adipose secretome in OAC patients is enriched with mediators that could prime the tumour microenvironment to aid tumour progression and attenuate responses to conventional cancer treatments, an effect which appears to be augmented by obesity and metabolic dysfunction and exposure to different treatment regimes

Combining service design and discrete choice experiments for intervention design: An application to weather index insurance

In this paper we provide a detailed description of the methodological steps involved in conducting a Service Design study in combination with Discrete Choice Experiments (DCEs). It complements the conceptual and epistemological argument developed for this methodological combination in Osborne et al. (2021, World Development, in review WD-19535). Service Design for the co-creative development of policy interventions in complex adaptive systems involves an iterative process of moving between the six methodological stages of (1) problem co-definition, (2) actor-centred mapping, (3) experience-based problem diagnosis, (4) rapid prototyping, (5) design and testing and (6) upscaling. We suggest using DCEs as a quantitative method that is contextually adaptable and comparatively fast and cheap to implement, as part of stage (6) design and testing. Whilst both methods can operate independently with their own strengths and limitations, we find their combination to add value to the processes and outcomes of each. We illustrate the general methodological approach with a step-by-step description of its application to Weather Index Insurance in eastern Uganda

Using a co-created transdisciplinary approach to explore the complexity of air pollution in informal settlements

We present novel co-created transdisciplinary research that uses arts and humanities methods to explore air pollution in an informal settlement (Mukuru) in Nairobi, Kenya. Air pollution is a well-documented major human health issue, but despite many air pollution reduction interventions designed to improve health, these are frequently ineffective. Often this is because they fail to account for local knowledge, cultural practices and priorities of the intended recipients. Designing solutions therefore requires in-depth exploration of relevant issues with stakeholders. Researchers worked collaboratively with local residents to develop a range of methods to explore understandings of air pollution including interviews, storytelling, participatory mapping and theatre. Together, we uncovered contrasting definitions of air pollution, differing perceptions of who was responsible for enacting solutions, and overall a view that air pollution cannot be seen in isolation from the other issues faced by settlement residents. The methods used also allowed us to communicate about the topic with a wide audience. While we acknowledge that this research approach is more time consuming than traditional approaches, we urge other researchers wishing to address multifactorial problems, such as air pollution to use a mixture of qualitative, participatory and creative methods to engage with a wide range of stakeholders to elicit new and unexpected understandings that may not otherwise emerge.Additional co-authors: Charlotte Waelde, Anna Walnycki, Megan Wainwright, Jana Wendler, and Mike Wilso

Safety and efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine (AZD1222) against SARS-CoV-2: an interim analysis of four randomised controlled trials in Brazil, South Africa, and the UK.

BACKGROUND: A safe and efficacious vaccine against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), if deployed with high coverage, could contribute to the control of the COVID-19 pandemic. We evaluated the safety and efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine in a pooled interim analysis of four trials. METHODS: This analysis includes data from four ongoing blinded, randomised, controlled trials done across the UK, Brazil, and South Africa. Participants aged 18 years and older were randomly assigned (1:1) to ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine or control (meningococcal group A, C, W, and Y conjugate vaccine or saline). Participants in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group received two doses containing 5 × 1010 viral particles (standard dose; SD/SD cohort); a subset in the UK trial received a half dose as their first dose (low dose) and a standard dose as their second dose (LD/SD cohort). The primary efficacy analysis included symptomatic COVID-19 in seronegative participants with a nucleic acid amplification test-positive swab more than 14 days after a second dose of vaccine. Participants were analysed according to treatment received, with data cutoff on Nov 4, 2020. Vaccine efficacy was calculated as 1 - relative risk derived from a robust Poisson regression model adjusted for age. Studies are registered at ISRCTN89951424 and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04324606, NCT04400838, and NCT04444674. FINDINGS: Between April 23 and Nov 4, 2020, 23 848 participants were enrolled and 11 636 participants (7548 in the UK, 4088 in Brazil) were included in the interim primary efficacy analysis. In participants who received two standard doses, vaccine efficacy was 62·1% (95% CI 41·0-75·7; 27 [0·6%] of 4440 in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group vs71 [1·6%] of 4455 in the control group) and in participants who received a low dose followed by a standard dose, efficacy was 90·0% (67·4-97·0; three [0·2%] of 1367 vs 30 [2·2%] of 1374; pinteraction=0·010). Overall vaccine efficacy across both groups was 70·4% (95·8% CI 54·8-80·6; 30 [0·5%] of 5807 vs 101 [1·7%] of 5829). From 21 days after the first dose, there were ten cases hospitalised for COVID-19, all in the control arm; two were classified as severe COVID-19, including one death. There were 74 341 person-months of safety follow-up (median 3·4 months, IQR 1·3-4·8): 175 severe adverse events occurred in 168 participants, 84 events in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group and 91 in the control group. Three events were classified as possibly related to a vaccine: one in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group, one in the control group, and one in a participant who remains masked to group allocation. INTERPRETATION: ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 has an acceptable safety profile and has been found to be efficacious against symptomatic COVID-19 in this interim analysis of ongoing clinical trials. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation, National Institutes for Health Research (NIHR), Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Lemann Foundation, Rede D'Or, Brava and Telles Foundation, NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, Thames Valley and South Midland's NIHR Clinical Research Network, and AstraZeneca

Safety and efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine (AZD1222) against SARS-CoV-2: an interim analysis of four randomised controlled trials in Brazil, South Africa, and the UK

Background A safe and efficacious vaccine against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), if deployed with high coverage, could contribute to the control of the COVID-19 pandemic. We evaluated the safety and efficacy of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine in a pooled interim analysis of four trials. Methods This analysis includes data from four ongoing blinded, randomised, controlled trials done across the UK, Brazil, and South Africa. Participants aged 18 years and older were randomly assigned (1:1) to ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine or control (meningococcal group A, C, W, and Y conjugate vaccine or saline). Participants in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group received two doses containing 5 × 1010 viral particles (standard dose; SD/SD cohort); a subset in the UK trial received a half dose as their first dose (low dose) and a standard dose as their second dose (LD/SD cohort). The primary efficacy analysis included symptomatic COVID-19 in seronegative participants with a nucleic acid amplification test-positive swab more than 14 days after a second dose of vaccine. Participants were analysed according to treatment received, with data cutoff on Nov 4, 2020. Vaccine efficacy was calculated as 1 - relative risk derived from a robust Poisson regression model adjusted for age. Studies are registered at ISRCTN89951424 and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04324606, NCT04400838, and NCT04444674. Findings Between April 23 and Nov 4, 2020, 23 848 participants were enrolled and 11 636 participants (7548 in the UK, 4088 in Brazil) were included in the interim primary efficacy analysis. In participants who received two standard doses, vaccine efficacy was 62·1% (95% CI 41·0–75·7; 27 [0·6%] of 4440 in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group vs71 [1·6%] of 4455 in the control group) and in participants who received a low dose followed by a standard dose, efficacy was 90·0% (67·4–97·0; three [0·2%] of 1367 vs 30 [2·2%] of 1374; pinteraction=0·010). Overall vaccine efficacy across both groups was 70·4% (95·8% CI 54·8–80·6; 30 [0·5%] of 5807 vs 101 [1·7%] of 5829). From 21 days after the first dose, there were ten cases hospitalised for COVID-19, all in the control arm; two were classified as severe COVID-19, including one death. There were 74 341 person-months of safety follow-up (median 3·4 months, IQR 1·3–4·8): 175 severe adverse events occurred in 168 participants, 84 events in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group and 91 in the control group. Three events were classified as possibly related to a vaccine: one in the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 group, one in the control group, and one in a participant who remains masked to group allocation. Interpretation ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 has an acceptable safety profile and has been found to be efficacious against symptomatic COVID-19 in this interim analysis of ongoing clinical trials

Devising Capabilities : Service Design for Development Interventions

Despite the progress in recent decades, one in ten people globally still live in extreme poverty, and this number is set to increase in the coming years. Designing interventions to improve well-being and livelihoods is challenging because poverty is multidimensional and plays out in complex, adaptive social-ecological systems, where behaviours and practices at the local level can have unintended consequences elsewhere in the system. In such contexts, linear approaches to designing development interventions are insufficient. Service design has emerged as a human-centred, integrative approach to designing services and systems in complex settings, but knowledge gaps remain on how service design can be used to address development challenges in the Global South. Without an understanding of how service design tools and approaches function in these contexts, there is a risk they might inadvertently cause harm to research participants and local communities. This thesis contributes new knowledge about how service design can be used to design development interventions in complex social-ecological contexts The research questions address three areas where service design could play a role: (i) how service design could be used to make sense of local level complexity and package this information for development programmers and policymakers; (ii) how service design could support local agency in the design of development projects; and (iii) how service design could be used to complement conventional methods of development research. The research questions were addressed using three case studies of development interventions. In two of the cases, a clean cookstove intervention in Kenya and an insurance product for small-scale farmers in Uganda, a service design approach was combined with quantitative methods. In the third case study, participatory backcasting was used to inform a long-term plan for energy transition for an off-grid community in Machakos, Kenya. A conceptual framework was first developed to support the use of service design to address development challenges in complex social-ecological systems. Elements of the framework were then applied in two of the case studies: the cookstoves and insurance studies. The thesis uses service design as an approach and practice, and the capabilities approach as the main conceptual and theoretical framing. The findings reveal that in these contexts, service design tools can become devices for understanding how value is assigned over time by users of the designed services. Archetype construction and prototyping became important devices for identifying patterns in heterogeneous needs and behaviours, while conveying key design parameters to policymakers and programmers. The research also shows that prototyping can enhance local agency by allowing research participants to challenge the core assumptions that underpin proposed interventions. The findings also demonstrate that participatory backcasting can be positioned as a device for prototyping future development pathways. It was found to facilitate individual and collective action in the short term. Combining service design devices with quantitative methods allowed triangulation of findings and a more comprehensive understanding of complex contexts. Beyond the empirical findings on design devices, the thesis makes two important conceptual contributions. First, it positions service design as an integrative approach to conducting transdisciplinary development research in complex social-ecological contexts. Second, the thesis bridges service design and the capabilities approach and demonstrates how this can help designers anchor their work in the local context while navigating normative development objectives. The contributions are useful for service design researchers and practitioners interested in how service design can be used alongside other disciplines to support long-term development objectives. For the development community, the contributions demonstrate a radically different approach to designing interventions where complexity, messiness and non-linearity are embraced.Funding agencies: The Swedish International Development Agency (Sida), the Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC), the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), and the Humanist Institute for Development Cooperation (Hivos)</p

Misconceptions about Psychological Science: A Review

This paper will provide an overview of the available evidence on psychological misconceptions, including key findings, current directions and emerging issues for investigation. We begin by defining misconceptions and then examine their prevalence and persistence, discuss their implications for student learning and highlight potential strategies to eliminate or reduce their influence. Thereafter, several theoretical and methodological issues that have traditionally defined research in this area are discussed. In particular, we highlight the possibility that reported rates of misconceptions may in part be driven by particular features of the measurement procedures employed. On the basis of this analysis, potential avenues for future research are outlined

Design Devices for Human Development : A Capabilities Approach in Kenya and Uganda

Despite progress in recent decades, many crucial challenges to the eradication of extreme poverty remain intractable. Development interventions often fail to deliver sustained, transformational outcomes to households and communities. The field of design has demonstrated its capacity to deliver designed artifacts that enhance the livelihoods and well-being of people living in resource poor communities, but it remains unclear how its tools can contribute to interventions seeking multidimensional and transformational development outcomes. We present insights from two case studies, conducted in Kenya and Uganda, where a service design approach was applied to the design of two development interventions: a clean cookstove and fuel system, and an innovative insurance product to help farmers cope with climate variability. In both cases, experience mapping, archetype construction, and prototyping served to reveal individual needs, capacities, and values, and enabled the translation of this information into design features for the interventions. Using Amartya Sens capabilities approach as an ex post analytical frame, we show how these devices could guide designers seeking to deliver transformational development outcomes when co-designing services that aim for environmental sustainability and social well-being among low-income communities.Funding Agencies|Climate and Clean Air Coalition; Swedish International Development Agency (Sida)</p