Mathematical programming modelling tools for resource-poor countries and organisations

In recent years, powerful mathematical modelling languages have enabled Operational Research practitioners to rapidly develop prototype tools capable of modelling complex managerial decisions such as staff shift scheduling, or production and supply chain planning. However, such tools have often required expensive commercial optimisation solvers that are sometimes beyond the financial reach of small companies and organisations, particularly in the low-income and emerging economies. Fortunately, the worldwide scope of the internet has put powerful free optimisation tools within the reach of anyone with a modest PC and even a slow internet connection. This article will present examples showing just how beneficial such an approach can be for resource-poor organisations

Radiation-induced skin injury in the animal model of scleroderma: implications for post-radiotherapy fibrosis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Radiation therapy is generally contraindicated for cancer patients with collagen vascular diseases (CVD) such as scleroderma due to an increased risk of fibrosis. The tight skin (TSK) mouse has skin which, in some respects, mimics that of patients with scleroderma. The skin radiation response of TSK mice has not been previously reported. If TSK mice are shown to have radiation sensitive skin, they may prove to be a useful model to examine the mechanisms underlying skin radiation injury, protection, mitigation and treatment.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The hind limbs of TSK and parental control C57BL/6 mice received a radiation exposure sufficient to cause approximately the same level of acute injury. Endpoints included skin damage scored using a non-linear, semi-quantitative scale and tissue fibrosis assessed by measuring passive leg extension. In addition, TGF-β1 cytokine levels were measured monthly in skin tissue.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Contrary to our expectations, TSK mice were more resistant (i.e. 20%) to radiation than parental control mice. Although acute skin reactions were similar in both mouse strains, radiation injury in TSK mice continued to decrease with time such that several months after radiation there was significantly less skin damage and leg contraction compared to C57BL/6 mice (p < 0.05). Consistent with the expected association of transforming growth factor beta-1 (TGF-β1) with late tissue injury, levels of the cytokine were significantly higher in the skin of the C57BL/6 mouse compared to TSK mouse at all time points (p < 0.05).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>TSK mice are not recommended as a model of scleroderma involving radiation injury. The genetic and molecular basis for reduced radiation injury observed in TSK mice warrants further investigation particularly to identify mechanisms capable of reducing tissue fibrosis after radiation injury.</p

Changes in elastin, elastin binding protein and versican in alveoli in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>COPD is characterised by loss of alveolar elastic fibers and by lack of effective repair. Elastic fibers are assembled at cell surfaces by elastin binding protein (EBP), a molecular chaperone whose function can be reversibility inhibited by chondroitin sulphate of matrix proteoglycans such as versican. This study aimed to determine if alveoli of patients with mild to moderate COPD contained increased amounts of versican and a corresponding decrease in EBP, and if these changes were correlated with decreases in elastin and FEV₁.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Lung samples were obtained from 26 control (FEV₁≥ 80% predicted, FEV₁/VC >0.7) and 17 COPD patients (FEV₁≥ 40% – <80% predicted, FEV₁/VC ≤ 0.7) who had undergone a lobectomy for bronchial carcinoma. Samples were processed for histological and immuno-staining. Volume fractions (<it>V</it>_v) of elastin in alveolar walls and alveolar rims were determined by point counting, and versican and EBP assessed by grading of staining intensities.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Elastin <it>V</it>v was positively correlated with FEV₁for both the alveolar walls (r = 0.66, p < 0.001) and rims (r = 0.41, p < 0.01). Versican was negatively correlated with FEV₁in both regions (r = 0.30 and 0.32 respectively, p < 0.05), with the highest staining intensities found in patients with the lowest values for FEV₁. Conversely, staining intensities for EBP in alveolar walls and rims and were positively correlated with FEV₁(r = 0.43 and 0.46, p < 0.01).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Patients with mild to moderate COPD show progressively increased immuno-staining for versican and correspondingly decreased immuno-staining for EBP, with decreasing values of FEV₁. These findings may explain the lack of repair of elastic fibers in the lungs of patients with moderate COPD. Removal of versican may offer a strategy for effective repair.</p

Chlamydophila pneumoniae induces a sustained airway hyperresponsiveness and inflammation in mice

Background: It has been reported that Chlamydophila (C.) pneumoniae is involved in the initiation and promotion of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD). Surprisingly, the effect of C. pneumoniae on airway function has never been investigated.Methods: In this study, mice were inoculated intranasally with C. pneumoniae (strain AR39) on day 0 and experiments were performed on day 2, 7, 14 and 21.Results: We found that from day 7, C. pneumoniae infection causes both a sustained airway hyperresponsiveness and an inflammation. Interferon-γ (IFN-γ) and macrophage inflammatory chemokine-2 (MIP-2) levels in bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL)-fluid were increased on all experimental days with exception of day 7 where MIP-2 concentrations dropped to control levels. In contrast, tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) levels were only increased on day 7. From day 7 to 21 epithelial damage and secretory cell hypertrophy was observed. It is suggested that, the inflammatory cells/mediators, the epithelial damage and secretory cell hypertrophy contribute to initiation of airway hyperresponsiveness.Conclusion: Our study demonstrates for the first time that C. pneumoniae infection can modify bronchial responsiveness. This has clinical implications, since additional changes in airway responsiveness and inflammation-status induced by this bacterium may worsen and/or provoke breathlessness in asthma and COPD

Utilisation of an operative difficulty grading scale for laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background A reliable system for grading operative difficulty of laparoscopic cholecystectomy would standardise description of findings and reporting of outcomes. The aim of this study was to validate a difficulty grading system (Nassar scale), testing its applicability and consistency in two large prospective datasets. Methods Patient and disease-related variables and 30-day outcomes were identified in two prospective cholecystectomy databases: the multi-centre prospective cohort of 8820 patients from the recent CholeS Study and the single-surgeon series containing 4089 patients. Operative data and patient outcomes were correlated with Nassar operative difficultly scale, using Kendall’s tau for dichotomous variables, or Jonckheere–Terpstra tests for continuous variables. A ROC curve analysis was performed, to quantify the predictive accuracy of the scale for each outcome, with continuous outcomes dichotomised, prior to analysis. Results A higher operative difficulty grade was consistently associated with worse outcomes for the patients in both the reference and CholeS cohorts. The median length of stay increased from 0 to 4 days, and the 30-day complication rate from 7.6 to 24.4% as the difficulty grade increased from 1 to 4/5 (both p < 0.001). In the CholeS cohort, a higher difficulty grade was found to be most strongly associated with conversion to open and 30-day mortality (AUROC = 0.903, 0.822, respectively). On multivariable analysis, the Nassar operative difficultly scale was found to be a significant independent predictor of operative duration, conversion to open surgery, 30-day complications and 30-day reintervention (all p < 0.001). Conclusion We have shown that an operative difficulty scale can standardise the description of operative findings by multiple grades of surgeons to facilitate audit, training assessment and research. It provides a tool for reporting operative findings, disease severity and technical difficulty and can be utilised in future research to reliably compare outcomes according to case mix and intra-operative difficulty

Cancer recurrence times from a branching process model

As cancer advances, cells often spread from the primary tumor to other parts of the body and form metastases. This is the main cause of cancer related mortality. Here we investigate a conceptually simple model of metastasis formation where metastatic lesions are initiated at a rate which depends on the size of the primary tumor. The evolution of each metastasis is described as an independent branching process. We assume that the primary tumor is resected at a given size and study the earliest time at which any metastasis reaches a minimal detectable size. The parameters of our model are estimated independently for breast, colorectal, headneck, lung and prostate cancers. We use these estimates to compare predictions from our model with values reported in clinical literature. For some cancer types, we find a remarkably wide range of resection sizes such that metastases are very likely to be present, but none of them are detectable. Our model predicts that only very early resections can prevent recurrence, and that small delays in the time of surgery can significantly increase the recurrence probability.Comment: 26 pages, 9 figures, 4 table

Population‐based cohort study of outcomes following cholecystectomy for benign gallbladder diseases

Background The aim was to describe the management of benign gallbladder disease and identify characteristics associated with all‐cause 30‐day readmissions and complications in a prospective population‐based cohort. Methods Data were collected on consecutive patients undergoing cholecystectomy in acute UK and Irish hospitals between 1 March and 1 May 2014. Potential explanatory variables influencing all‐cause 30‐day readmissions and complications were analysed by means of multilevel, multivariable logistic regression modelling using a two‐level hierarchical structure with patients (level 1) nested within hospitals (level 2). Results Data were collected on 8909 patients undergoing cholecystectomy from 167 hospitals. Some 1451 cholecystectomies (16·3 per cent) were performed as an emergency, 4165 (46·8 per cent) as elective operations, and 3293 patients (37·0 per cent) had had at least one previous emergency admission, but had surgery on a delayed basis. The readmission and complication rates at 30 days were 7·1 per cent (633 of 8909) and 10·8 per cent (962 of 8909) respectively. Both readmissions and complications were independently associated with increasing ASA fitness grade, duration of surgery, and increasing numbers of emergency admissions with gallbladder disease before cholecystectomy. No identifiable hospital characteristics were linked to readmissions and complications. Conclusion Readmissions and complications following cholecystectomy are common and associated with patient and disease characteristics

Recovery of high mountain Alpine lakes after the eradication of introduced brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis using non-chemical methods

The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10530-018-1867-0Fish stocking is a serious threat to originally fishless mountain lakes. We used non-chemical eradication methods (i.e. gillnetting and electrofishing) in four high mountain lakes in the Gran Paradiso National Park (Western Italian Alps) to eradicate alien brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis. Data of amphibians, macroinvertebrates, zooplankton, chlorophyll-a, nutrient concentrations, and water transparency were used as indicators of the recovery process. All treated lakes were returned to their original fishless condition in spite of their different sizes and habitat complexity, without permanent negative side-effects for native species. Several ecological indicators showed that many impacts of introduced fish can be reversed over a short time period following eradication. The present study adds to a still growing body of specialized literature on the recovery of habitats after the eradication of alien species and provides further evidence that physical eradication methods are effective and can be part of a more general strategy for the conservation of high mountain lake biota