Influence of Calibration Factors on Crash Prediction on Rural Two-Lane, Two-Way Roadway Segments

[EN] Calibration factors are applied in the Highway Safety Manual predictive method for rural two-lane, two-way roadway segments to adjust the estimate for local conditions. This research aims to evaluate and recommend improvements related to the estimation of these calibration factors. An aggregated and disaggregated analysis was performed to study the influence of different calibration factors on the prediction of the number of crashes in North Carolina. As a result, those calibration factors based on both types of road elements (horizontal curves and tangents) led to overestimating and underestimating the number of crashes on tangents and horizontal curves, respectively. Furthermore, the calibration factors based on fatal-and-injury crashes allowed a more accurate estimation of the predicted number of crashes than those calibrated considering all severity levels. Therefore, it is recommended to apply a different calibration factors for each type of road element and each type of crash severity.This research was subsidized by the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry, and Competitiveness through "Ayudas a la movilidad predoctoral para la realizacion de estancias breves en centros de I+D 2016." In addition, the authors would like to thank the North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT), which provided traffic and crash data.Llopis-Castelló, D.; Findley, DJ. (2019). Influence of Calibration Factors on Crash Prediction on Rural Two-Lane, Two-Way Roadway Segments. Journal of Transportation Engineering. 145(6):04019024-1-04019024-9. https://doi.org/10.1061/JTEPBS.000024504019024-104019024-9145

Comparison of the highway safety manual predictive method with safety performance functions based on geometric design consistency

This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Journal of Transportation Safety & Security, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/19439962.2020.1738612[EN] Road safety is a major public health concern in our society. Effective road design and accurate safety analyses must be a component of programs focused on reducing and eliminating roadway injuries and deaths. Various methodologies exist to determine the expected number of crashes on rural two-lane rural roads. This research compares different procedures which allow for the estimation of the number of crashes on homogeneous road segments. In this effort, a total of 27 two-lane rural road sections located in North Carolina were considered, resulting in 59 homogeneous road segments composed of 350 horizontal curves and 375 tangents along 150 km of road. Four methods were applied to the selected roadways: the Highway Safety Manual predictive method, two jurisdiction-specific Safety Performance Functions (SPFs), and a SPF which includes a consistency parameter. This research found that the use of SPFs which incorporate a consistency parameter allows highway engineers to consider human factor impacts on road safety assessment. The use of a consistency parameter can also simplify the crash estimation process. Analysis methods which only included local geometric variables provided unreliable results due to the calibration of only the specific road elements instead of their relationship with other road elements along homogeneous road segments.This research was subsidized by the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation, and Universities through "Ayudas a la movilidad predoctoral para la realizacion de estancias breves en centros de I+D 2017" (EEBB-I-17-12154) and is part of the research project titled "CASEFU - Estudio experimental de la funcionalidad y seguridad de las carreteras convencionales" (TRA2013-42578-P), subsidized by the above mentioned Spanish Ministry and the European Social Fund. In addition, the authors would like to thank the North Carolina Department of Transportation, which provided traffic and crash data.Llopis-Castelló, D.; Findley, DJ.; García García, A. (2021). Comparison of the highway safety manual predictive method with safety performance functions based on geometric design consistency. Journal of Transportation Safety & Security. 13(12):1365-1386. https://doi.org/10.1080/19439962.2020.1738612S13651386131

Anonymous shell companies: A global audit study and field experiment in 176 countries

To test whether firms behave consistently with international law prohibiting anonymous incorporation, we conducted a global audit study and field experiment, using data from 1639 incorporation firms in 176 countries. We requested anonymous incorporation and randomly assigned references to international law, threat of penalties, norms of appropriate behavior, or a placebo. We find a substantial number of firms willing to flout international standards and show that those in OECD countries proved significantly less compliant with rules than in developing countries or tax havens. Firms in tax havens displayed significantly greater compliance and were sensitive to experimental interventions invoking international law

Comparative genomics of Cluster O mycobacteriophages

Mycobacteriophages - viruses of mycobacterial hosts - are genetically diverse but morphologically are all classified in the Caudovirales with double-stranded DNA and tails. We describe here a group of five closely related mycobacteriophages - Corndog, Catdawg, Dylan, Firecracker, and YungJamal - designated as Cluster O with long flexible tails but with unusual prolate capsids. Proteomic analysis of phage Corndog particles, Catdawg particles, and Corndog-infected cells confirms expression of half of the predicted gene products and indicates a non-canonical mechanism for translation of the Corndog tape measure protein. Bioinformatic analysis identifies 8-9 strongly predicted SigA promoters and all five Cluster O genomes contain more than 30 copies of a 17 bp repeat sequence with dyad symmetry located throughout the genomes. Comparison of the Cluster O phages provides insights into phage genome evolution including the processes of gene flux by horizontal genetic exchange

Forecasting Non-Stationary Diarrhea, Acute Respiratory Infection, and Malaria Time-Series in Niono, Mali

BACKGROUND: Much of the developing world, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, exhibits high levels of morbidity and mortality associated with diarrhea, acute respiratory infection, and malaria. With the increasing awareness that the aforementioned infectious diseases impose an enormous burden on developing countries, public health programs therein could benefit from parsimonious general-purpose forecasting methods to enhance infectious disease intervention. Unfortunately, these disease time-series often i) suffer from non-stationarity; ii) exhibit large inter-annual plus seasonal fluctuations; and, iii) require disease-specific tailoring of forecasting methods. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In this longitudinal retrospective (01/1996-06/2004) investigation, diarrhea, acute respiratory infection of the lower tract, and malaria consultation time-series are fitted with a general-purpose econometric method, namely the multiplicative Holt-Winters, to produce contemporaneous on-line forecasts for the district of Niono, Mali. This method accommodates seasonal, as well as inter-annual, fluctuations and produces reasonably accurate median 2- and 3-month horizon forecasts for these non-stationary time-series, i.e., 92% of the 24 time-series forecasts generated (2 forecast horizons, 3 diseases, and 4 age categories = 24 time-series forecasts) have mean absolute percentage errors circa 25%. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The multiplicative Holt-Winters forecasting method: i) performs well across diseases with dramatically distinct transmission modes and hence it is a strong general-purpose forecasting method candidate for non-stationary epidemiological time-series; ii) obliquely captures prior non-linear interactions between climate and the aforementioned disease dynamics thus, obviating the need for more complex disease-specific climate-based parametric forecasting methods in the district of Niono; furthermore, iii) readily decomposes time-series into seasonal components thereby potentially assisting with programming of public health interventions, as well as monitoring of disease dynamics modification. Therefore, these forecasts could improve infectious diseases management in the district of Niono, Mali, and elsewhere in the Sahel

A Broadly Implementable Research Course in Phage Discovery and Genomics for First-Year Undergraduate Students

Engaging large numbers of undergraduates in authentic scientific discovery is desirable but difficult to achieve. We have developed a general model in which faculty and teaching assistants from diverse academic institutions are trained to teach a research course for first-year undergraduate students focused on bacteriophage discovery and genomics. The course is situated within a broader scientific context aimed at understanding viral diversity, such that faculty and students are collaborators with established researchers in the field. The Howard Hughes Medical Institute (HHMI) Science Education Alliance Phage Hunters Advancing Genomics and Evolutionary Science (SEA-PHAGES) course has been widely implemented and has been taken by over 4,800 students at 73 institutions. We show here that this alliance-sourced model not only substantially advances the field of phage genomics but also stimulates students’ interest in science, positively influences academic achievement, and enhances persistence in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) disciplines. Broad application of this model by integrating other research areas with large numbers of early-career undergraduate students has the potential to be transformative in science education and research training

Expanding the diversity of mycobacteriophages: insights into genome architecture and evolution.

Mycobacteriophages are viruses that infect mycobacterial hosts such as Mycobacterium smegmatis and Mycobacterium tuberculosis. All mycobacteriophages characterized to date are dsDNA tailed phages, and have either siphoviral or myoviral morphotypes. However, their genetic diversity is considerable, and although sixty-two genomes have been sequenced and comparatively analyzed, these likely represent only a small portion of the diversity of the mycobacteriophage population at large. Here we report the isolation, sequencing and comparative genomic analysis of 18 new mycobacteriophages isolated from geographically distinct locations within the United States. Although no clear correlation between location and genome type can be discerned, these genomes expand our knowledge of mycobacteriophage diversity and enhance our understanding of the roles of mobile elements in viral evolution. Expansion of the number of mycobacteriophages grouped within Cluster A provides insights into the basis of immune specificity in these temperate phages, and we also describe a novel example of apparent immunity theft. The isolation and genomic analysis of bacteriophages by freshman college students provides an example of an authentic research experience for novice scientists

A Broadly Implementable Research Course in Phage Discovery and Genomics for First-Year Undergraduate Students

Engaging large numbers of undergraduates in authentic scientific discovery is desirable but difficult to achieve. We have developed a general model in which faculty and teaching assistants from diverse academic institutions are trained to teach a research course for first-year undergraduate students focused on bacteriophage discovery and genomics. The course is situated within a broader scientific context aimed at understanding viral diversity, such that faculty and students are collaborators with established researchers in the field. The Howard Hughes Medical Institute (HHMI) Science Education Alliance Phage Hunters Advancing Genomics and Evolutionary Science (SEA-PHAGES) course has been widely implemented and has been taken by over 4,800 students at 73 institutions. We show here that this alliance-sourced model not only substantially advances the field of phage genomics but also stimulates students’ interest in science, positively influences academic achievement, and enhances persistence in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) disciplines. Broad application of this model by integrating other research areas with large numbers of early-career undergraduate students has the potential to be transformative in science education and research training