Intersectorial contagion risk in Morocco

This paper proposes an evaluation of intersectorial contagion risk through the analysis of the network of the intersectorial expositions, on the one hand, and the implementation of the approach of the contingent claims analysis (CCA) on the other hand. From this point of view, the matrix of the intersectorial expositions was approximated and of the indicators of centrality, resulting from the network analysis, were estimated. Then, using the CCA, which rises from the pricing theory of the options, the indicators of risk were calculated for each sector, in particular, the distance to the default, probability of default and the leverage ratio. The results obtained confirm that the financial and non-financial companies are the most systemic institutional sectors being able to constitute a principal channel of contagion. Lastly, an estimate of the joint and the conditional probabilities of default of the economic sectors was carried out, while taking as a starting point the work by Goodhart and al (2009) and by using the Archimedean copulas

Les indicateurs d’alerte précoce dans le système financier marocain

Financial crises can cross borders and have negative repercussions on the real economy even more in countries where the financial system is very undeveloped. Therefore, considering the developed techniques is important to guarantee the resilience and the stability of the financial system as a whole. Several countries keep their efforts in terms of implementing a preventive systemic risk policy to reduce costs in the event of a financial crisis. Consequently, the development of an early warning system is essential to predict the onset of financial crises and avoid their repercussions on financial systems. It is in this context that we will focus on the development of an early warning model based on the review of existing literature on the subject. To do this, we first proceed to the development of a binary crisis index BSFI (Kibricioglu 2002) which is developed by three financial variables namely: customer deposits, loans to the private sector, and the currency liabilities. Then, we estimate the binary logit model, in order to predict the scenarios of the probabilities of financial crises that can affect our financial system based on financial and monetary variables.   keywords:  early warning system, financial system, financial crisis, logit model. JEL Classification : G19 ; D53 ; G01 ; C25. Paper type: Empirical Research.Les crises financières peuvent traverser les frontières et induire des répercussions négatives sur l’économie réelle même dans les pays où le système financier n’est pas très développé. De ce fait, il est judicieux de prendre en considération des techniques développées afin de garantir la résilience et la stabilité du système financier dans son ensemble, plusieurs pays poursuivent leurs efforts pour la mise en place d’une politique préventive des risques systémiques afin de réduire les coûts en cas de survenance d’une crise financière. Dès lors, le développement d’un système d’alerte précoce est primordial pour prédire l’apparition des crises financières et d’éviter leurs répercussions sur les systèmes financiers. C’est dans ce cadre que nous allons nous intéresser au développement d’un modèle d’alerte précoce en nous appuyant sur la revue de littérature existante en la matière. Pour ce faire, nous procédons en premier temps, à l’élaboration d’un indice de crise binaire BSFI (Kibricioglu 2002) qui est élaboré par trois variables financières à savoir : les dépôts de la clientèle, les crédits au secteur privé, et le passif en devise. Ensuite, nous estimons le modèle logit binaire, afin de prédire les scénarios des probabilités des crises financières qui peuvent affecter notre système financier en s’appuyant sur des variables financières et monétaires.   Mots clés : Indicateur d’alerte ; système financier ; crise financière ; modèle logit. Classification JEL : G19 ; D53 ; G01 ; C25. Type de l’article : Recherche empirique

Competition and financial stability: a new paradigm

From the Nineties, the Moroccan banking system knew several reforms which contributed to the liberalization and the deregulation of banks. The objective is to arrive to a banking sector resilient, competitive, developed and making it possible to increase the surplus of the borrowers and the depositors. Although the relation between competition and financial stability is discussed, this paper proposes to formulate a new explanation of this relation while being based on the trilogy: competition, concentration and stability (CCS). Initially we develop the model of Panzar and Rose (1982,1987) to measure the competition of the dynamic banking system since 1993. Then, a data model of panel was estimated, highlighting the nonlinear relation between financial stability and banking competition. The checking of this relation made it possible to propose a new design concerning the relation between financial stability and competition. Indeed, the results obtained with through an optimization model affirm that this relation is cyclic, in the direction where, a stronger competition supports financial stability in situation of strong impact strength, on the other hand, in a situation of financial instability, more competition worsens the situation of the banking system

Optimal Capital structure and financial stability

This paper attempts to answer the fundamental question of the choice of capital structure. The financial structure in Morocco raises several questions about the behaviour of firms, especially in relation to the banking system and the financial market. We tried to determine the factors that explain the choice of financial structure. In addition to the traditional known factors, we were able to introduce the effects of financial stability on the financial structure. The results obtained affirm that Moroccan companies are in a hierarchical conception of the choice of financing and they prefer the use of internal financing with a particularity where companies with long experience are less and less attracted by external financing. In addition, financial stability significantly affects the choice of financing method. Indeed, when the financial system is stable, companies prefer to use external financing, which results in over-indebtedness that negatively affects the stability of the Moroccan financial system in a second rank. We generalize this theoretical conception to assert that the degree of financial stability can have effects on the choice of the financial structure of companies

Prevision des difficultes bancaires : un modele d'alerte precoce pour le cas du maroc

This paper proposes an early warning model that can predict vulnerabilities in the Moroccan banking system. This tool is part of a financial stability perspective because of its ability to anticipate banking weaknesses. Thus, and inspired by the practices of major central banks, notably those of the FED and the ECB, a logit model in panel data was developed on eight major Moroccan banks representing more than 90% of the banking system. This model relates the probability of distress and several macroeconomic and financial variables likely to anticipate banking difficulties. The results show that the bank leverage ratio and the output gap are the main determinants of banking difficulties in Morocco. Indeed, the analysis of the marginal effects shows that a 1% variation of these two determinants impacts the probability of distress of Moroccan banks by almost 20% and 14% respectively. In parallel, the examination of Type 1 and Type 2 errors indicates that the predictive quality of the chosen model and its ability to send good signals are widely acceptabl

Education Attainment, Further Female Participation & Feminization of Labor Markets in Arab Countries

The feminization of labor markets through the role of education is among the means that enhances the participation of women to development and ensures further involvement of human resources in the growth and development processes. While this is a process that is highly pursued in most developed economies, it is not clearly seen to be pervasive in most developing countries. The Arab economies are among those countries where lower participation of women is observed but where education is an important driver for further feminization of labor markets. These issues are discussed in the present chapter to underline the role of education in Arab economies in expanding further participation of human resources to local labor markets in these economies

Endometrial carcinoma located in the right septate uterus cavity: a case report

Endometrial cancer in patients with uterine congenital malformations is exceptional and there are only a few rare cases published in the literature. We report the case of a 67 years-old patient with an endometrial cancer located in the right cavity of a complete septate uterus.Pan African Medical Journal 2015; 2

Les dyspareunies du post partum: un sujet non négligeable

La dyspareunie est une douleur éprouvée lors du rapport sexuel. Elle peut être superficielle ou profonde. Elle est fréquente en post partum et donc non négligeable. Elle a fait l’objet de plusieurs descriptions et plusieurs classifications.  Les étiologies sont nombreuses : infectieuses, traumatiques, hormonales, psychiques et autres. Le traitement de la dyspareunie se base sur le traitement de la cause organique et le traitement psychologique du conditionnement à la douleur qui persiste après le traitement médical

Institutional investors and corporate governance

We provide a comprehensive overview of the role of institutional investors in corporate governance with three main components. First, we establish new stylized facts documenting the evolution and importance of institutional ownership. Second, we provide a detailed characterization of key aspects of the legal and regulatory setting within which institutional investors govern portfolio firms. Third, we synthesize the evolving response of the recent theoretical and empirical academic literature in finance to the emergence of institutional investors in corporate governance. We highlight how the defining aspect of institutional investors – the fact that they are financial intermediaries – differentiates them in their governance role from standard principal blockholders. Further, not all institutional investors are identical, and we pay close attention to heterogeneity amongst institutional investors as blockholders

Integral representation formulas and applications

In this work, we consider the integral representations formulas constructed to study the Cauchy-Riemann equation and the tangential Cauchy-Riemann equation. We extend some of the classical results already known in the case of a strictly pseudo-convex domain to a class of convex domains. Among the results we obtained is the integral formula for the \bar\partial\sb{b}-equation on some convex domains. This result is proved in chapter 2. The last result we give in this chapter concerns a problem of division. By applying the same method as in the previous paragraphs, we prove the regularity of the solutions of the division problem and show that the solutions are regular. This result was obtained in the case of a convex domain satisfying some technical conditions. In chapter 3, we study the regularity of the Bergman kernel on strictly pseudo-convex domains in \doubc\sp{n}. We obtain representation of the Bergman kernel on domains which are intersection of two transverse strictly pseudo-convex domains. The same study allows us to have Holder estimates for the Cauchy-Riemann equation on some convex domains