Effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on surgery for indeterminate thyroid nodules (THYCOVID): a retrospective, international, multicentre, cross-sectional study

Background Since its outbreak in early 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has diverted resources from non-urgent and elective procedures, leading to diagnosis and treatment delays, with an increased number of neoplasms at advanced stages worldwide. The aims of this study were to quantify the reduction in surgical activity for indeterminate thyroid nodules during the COVID-19 pandemic; and to evaluate whether delays in surgery led to an increased occurrence of aggressive tumours.Methods In this retrospective, international, cross-sectional study, centres were invited to participate in June 22, 2022; each centre joining the study was asked to provide data from medical records on all surgical thyroidectomies consecutively performed from Jan 1, 2019, to Dec 31, 2021. Patients with indeterminate thyroid nodules were divided into three groups according to when they underwent surgery: from Jan 1, 2019, to Feb 29, 2020 (global prepandemic phase), from March 1, 2020, to May 31, 2021 (pandemic escalation phase), and from June 1 to Dec 31, 2021 (pandemic decrease phase). The main outcomes were, for each phase, the number of surgeries for indeterminate thyroid nodules, and in patients with a postoperative diagnosis of thyroid cancers, the occurrence of tumours larger than 10 mm, extrathyroidal extension, lymph node metastases, vascular invasion, distant metastases, and tumours at high risk of structural disease recurrence. Univariate analysis was used to compare the probability of aggressive thyroid features between the first and third study phases. The study was registered on ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT05178186.Findings Data from 157 centres (n=49 countries) on 87 467 patients who underwent surgery for benign and malignant thyroid disease were collected, of whom 22 974 patients (18 052 [78 center dot 6%] female patients and 4922 [21 center dot 4%] male patients) received surgery for indeterminate thyroid nodules. We observed a significant reduction in surgery for indeterminate thyroid nodules during the pandemic escalation phase (median monthly surgeries per centre, 1 center dot 4 [IQR 0 center dot 6-3 center dot 4]) compared with the prepandemic phase (2 center dot 0 [0 center dot 9-3 center dot 7]; p<0 center dot 0001) and pandemic decrease phase (2 center dot 3 [1 center dot 0-5 center dot 0]; p<0 center dot 0001). Compared with the prepandemic phase, in the pandemic decrease phase we observed an increased occurrence of thyroid tumours larger than 10 mm (2554 [69 center dot 0%] of 3704 vs 1515 [71 center dot 5%] of 2119; OR 1 center dot 1 [95% CI 1 center dot 0-1 center dot 3]; p=0 center dot 042), lymph node metastases (343 [9 center dot 3%] vs 264 [12 center dot 5%]; OR 1 center dot 4 [1 center dot 2-1 center dot 7]; p=0 center dot 0001), and tumours at high risk of structural disease recurrence (203 [5 center dot 7%] of 3584 vs 155 [7 center dot 7%] of 2006; OR 1 center dot 4 [1 center dot 1-1 center dot 7]; p=0 center dot 0039).Interpretation Our study suggests that the reduction in surgical activity for indeterminate thyroid nodules during the COVID-19 pandemic period could have led to an increased occurrence of aggressive thyroid tumours. However, other compelling hypotheses, including increased selection of patients with aggressive malignancies during this period, should be considered. We suggest that surgery for indeterminate thyroid nodules should no longer be postponed even in future instances of pandemic escalation.Funding None.Copyright (c) 2023 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Evaluation of appendicitis risk prediction models in adults with suspected appendicitis

Background Appendicitis is the most common general surgical emergency worldwide, but its diagnosis remains challenging. The aim of this study was to determine whether existing risk prediction models can reliably identify patients presenting to hospital in the UK with acute right iliac fossa (RIF) pain who are at low risk of appendicitis. Methods A systematic search was completed to identify all existing appendicitis risk prediction models. Models were validated using UK data from an international prospective cohort study that captured consecutive patients aged 16–45 years presenting to hospital with acute RIF in March to June 2017. The main outcome was best achievable model specificity (proportion of patients who did not have appendicitis correctly classified as low risk) whilst maintaining a failure rate below 5 per cent (proportion of patients identified as low risk who actually had appendicitis). Results Some 5345 patients across 154 UK hospitals were identified, of which two‐thirds (3613 of 5345, 67·6 per cent) were women. Women were more than twice as likely to undergo surgery with removal of a histologically normal appendix (272 of 964, 28·2 per cent) than men (120 of 993, 12·1 per cent) (relative risk 2·33, 95 per cent c.i. 1·92 to 2·84; P < 0·001). Of 15 validated risk prediction models, the Adult Appendicitis Score performed best (cut‐off score 8 or less, specificity 63·1 per cent, failure rate 3·7 per cent). The Appendicitis Inflammatory Response Score performed best for men (cut‐off score 2 or less, specificity 24·7 per cent, failure rate 2·4 per cent). Conclusion Women in the UK had a disproportionate risk of admission without surgical intervention and had high rates of normal appendicectomy. Risk prediction models to support shared decision‐making by identifying adults in the UK at low risk of appendicitis were identified

El Efecto de la fertilización química y orgánica sobre el fitoplancton y la producción de peces en un sistema de policultivo de carpas(Ciprinidae)

This study reports the effects of sheep and pig liquid manure, and chemical fertilizer on the phytoplankton, primary productivity and aquaculture production in the cultivation of carp in semi-rustic ponds. The total yield was 4.632 kg in two hectares. Treatment with chemical fertilizers was found to present the highest yield with 10.06 ± 0.67 (kg/Ha/day), followed by treatment with pig manure (8.27 ± 1.24 kg/Ha/day) and sheep manure (6.33 ± 1.95 kg/Ha/day). It was also found that concentrations of phytoplankton were significantly (p<0.005) higher in ponds fertilized with sheep and pig manure (945.940 and 1,157,706 cells/ml, respectively) than in ponds where chemical fertilizer was used (744.560 cells/ml). In general, conditions were adequate to obtain high yields without commercial feed, thus organic fertilizer application can be recommended because of its availability and low cost.Se estudiaron los efectos del abono lí- quido de borrego y cerdo, y un fertilizante químico, sobre el fitoplancton, la productividad primaria y la producción acuícola en el cultivo de carpas en estanques semirústicos. El rendimiento total fue de 4,632 kg en dos hectáreas. Se encontró que el tratamiento con fertilización química presentó el mayor rendimiento con 10.06±0.67 (kg/Ha/ día), seguido por tratamiento con abono de cerdo (8.27±1.24 kg/Ha/día) y el de borrego (6.33±1.95 kg/Ha/día). También, se encontró que en los estanques fertilizados con abono de borrego y cerdo se presentaron las concentraciones de fitoplancton (945,940 y 1,157,706 cells/ml, respectivamente) significativamente (p <0.005) más altas que en los estanques donde se aplico fertilización química (744,560 cells/ml). Las condiciones en general fueron adecuadas para obtener altos rendimientos sin alimentos comerciales y la aplicación de abonos orgánicos puede ser recomendada debido a su disponibilidad y bajo costo

Suppressed Induction of Proinflammatory Cytokines by a Unique Metabolite Produced by Vibrio cholerae O1 El Tor Biotype in Cultured Host Cells ▿ †

Vibrio cholerae O1 has two biotypes, El Tor and Classical, and the latter is now presumed to be extinct in nature. Under carbohydrate-rich growth conditions, El Tor biotype strains produce the neutral fermentation end product 2,3-butanediol (2,3-BD), which prevents accumulation of organic acids from mixed acid fermentation and thus avoids a lethal decrease in the medium pH, while the Classical biotype strains fail to do the same. In this study, we investigated the inhibitory effect of 2,3-BD on the production of two proinflammatory biomarkers, intreleukin-8 (IL-8) and tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α), in human intestinal epithelial HT29 and alveolar epithelial A549 cells. Cell-free culture supernatants of El Tor strain N16961 grown in LB supplemented with 1% glucose induced a negligible amount of IL-8 or TNF-α, while the Classical O395 strain induced much higher levels of these proinflammatory cytokines. On the other hand, three mutant strains constructed from the N16961 strain with defects in the constitutive 2,3-BD pathway were also able to induce high levels of cytokines. When HT29 and A549 cells were treated with bacterial flagella, known proinflammatory cytokine inducers, and chemically synthesized 2,3-BD at various concentrations, a dose-dependent decrease in IL-8 and TNF-α production was observed, demonstrating the suppressive effect of 2,3-BD on the production of proinflammatory cytokines in epithelial cells. Upon cotreatment with extraneous 2,3-BD, elevated levels of IκBα, the inhibitor of the NF-κB pathway, were detected in both HT29 and A549 cells. Furthermore, treatments containing 2,3-BD elicited lower levels of NF-κB-responsive luciferase activity, demonstrating that the reduced cytokine production is likely through the inhibition of the NF-κB pathway. These results reveal a novel and potential role of 2,3-BD as an immune modulator that might have conferred a superior pathogenic potential of the El Tor over the Classical biotype