The natural capital approach to integrating science, economics and policy into decisions affecting the natural environment

This is the final version. Available on open access from Cambridge University Press via the DOI in this recordNatural capital refers to those stocks of assets provided for free by nature which, directly or indirectly, deliver well-being for humans. These include freshwater, fertile soils, clean air and living things. Natural capital stocks deliver flows of services, often called ecosystem services, which (often in combination with flows from other capital including human labour, ingenuity and manufactured goods) produce the benefits upon which humans depend for economic well-being and their very existence. Economic activity depends on natural capital while also affecting the stock of those assets. This relationship between the environment, the economy and human well-being has caught the attention of governments at both global and national levels. But how should governments incorporate the notion of natural capital into policy- and decision-making? We set out to define the notion of natural capital and how it can be brought into the economic analyses which underpin the majority of policy decision-making systems. We consider the means by which changes can be best directed to reflect the underlying science of the environment, the incentives of the economy and the preferences of society.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC

Large changes in Great Britain’s vegetation and agricultural land-use predicted under unmitigated climate change

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from IOP Publishing via the DOI in this recordData availability: The parameter values used for JULES is available from the suite u-ao645 and branch ‘full_UK’ on the Rosie repository: https://code.metoffice.gov.uk/trac/roses-u (registration required). The data that support the findings of this study are openly available at DOI.The impact of climate change on vegetation including agricultural production has been the focus of many studies. Climate change is expected to have heterogeneous effects across locations globally, and the diversity of land uses characterising Great Britain (GB) presents a unique opportunity to test methods for assessing climate change effects and impacts. GB is a relatively cool and damp country, hence, the warmer and generally drier growing season conditions projected for the future are expected to increase arable production. Here we use state-of-the-art, kilometre-scale climate change scenarios to drive a land surface model (JULES; Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) and an ECOnometric AGricultural land use model (ECO-AG). Under unmitigated climate change, by the end of the century, the growing season in GB is projected to get >5°C warmer and 140 mm drier on average. Rising levels of atmospheric CO2 are predicted to counteract the generally negative impacts of climate change on vegetation productivity in JULES. Given sufficient precipitation, warming favours higher value arable production over grassland agriculture, causing a predicted westward expansion of arable farming in ECO-AG. However, drying in the East and Southeast, without any CO2 fertilisation effect, is severe enough to cause a predicted reversion from arable to grassland farming. Irrigation, if implemented, could maintain this land in arable production. However, the predicted irrigation demand of ~200 mm (per growing season) in many locations is comparable to annual predicted runoff, potentially demanding large-scale redistribution of water between seasons and/or across the country. The strength of the CO2 fertilisation effect emerges as a crucial uncertainty in projecting the impact of climate change on GB vegetation, especially farming land-use decisions.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)Joint UK BEIS/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programm

Shifts in national land use and food production in Great Britain after a climate tipping point

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Nature Research via the DOI in this recordData availability: The modelled output data that support the findings of this study are openly available from: Smith, G. S. & Ritchie, P. D. L. (NERC Environmental Information Data Centre: 639 doi.org/10.5285/e1c1dbcf-2f37-429b-af19-a730f98600f6, 2019).Climate change is expected to impact agricultural land use. Steadily accumulating changes in temperature and water availability can alter the relative profitability of different farming activities and promote land use changes. There is also potential for high-impact ‘climate tipping points’ where abrupt, non-linear change in climate occurs - such as the potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Here, using data from Great Britain, we develop a methodology to analyse the impacts of a climate tipping point on land use and economic outcomes for agriculture. We show that economic/land use impacts of such a tipping point are likely to include widespread cessation of arable farming with losses of agricultural output, an order of magnitude larger than the impacts of climate change without an AMOC collapse. The agricultural effects of AMOC collapse could be ameliorated by technological adaptations such as widespread irrigation, but the amount of water required and the costs appear prohibitive in this instance.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)Alan Turing Institut

The potential of metering roundabouts: influence in transportation externalities

Roundabouts are increasingly being used on busy arterial streets for traffic calming purposes. However, if one roundabout leg is near a distribution hub, e.g. parking areas of shopping centers, the entry traffic volumes will be particularly high in peak hours. This paper investigated a partial-metering based strategy to reduce traffic-related costs in a corridor. Specifically, the resulting traffic performance, energy, environmental and exposure impacts associated with access roundabouts were studied in an urban commercial area, namely: a) to characterize corridor operations in terms of link-specific travel time, fuel consumption, carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxides emissions, and noise costs; b) to propose an optimization model to minimize above outputs; and c) to demonstrate the model applicability under different traffic demand and directional splits combinations. Traffic, noise and vehicle dynamics data were collected from a corridor with roundabouts and signalized intersections near a commercial area of Guimarães, Portugal. Microscopic traffic and emission modeling platforms were used to model traffic operations and estimate pollutant emissions, respectively. Traffic noise was estimated with a semi-dynamical model. Link-based cost functions were developed based on the integrated modeling structure. Lastly, a Sequential quadratic programming type approach was applied to find optimal timing settings. The benefit of the partial-metering system, in terms of costs, could be up to 13% with observed traffic volumes. The efficiency of the proposed system increased as entering traffic at the metered approaches increased (~7% less costs). The findings let one to quantify metering benefits near shopping areas

Formazione esterna: tirocini, stage e studi all'estero

Il saggio analizza - attraverso l'elaborazione di dati empirici di Almalaurea - il processo in forza al quale la formazione universitaria si svolge, in epoca curriculare, esternamente all'universit\ue0, con accesso al mondo aziendale e all'estero, sottolineando il valore che tale processo ha per gli studenti e per le impres

The treatment of bleeding peptic ulcer in the elderly

Haemorrhage is the most frequent PUD complication and its incidence is increasing in comparison to perforation and stenosis. Therapeutic endoscopy is considered the treatment of choice for bleeding ulcers, reducing the need for emergent surgical procedures to 10\u201320% of the cases. The study evaluated the incidence of re-bleeding and the type of treatment used, the mortality and the complications in the different age groups in relation to the type of treatment and the correlation between the number of endoscopic haemostasis and mortality. The evaluation of the treatment outcome in our series of patients suggests that endoscopic haemostasis and medical treatment should be the first therapeutic option in ulcer cases with active bleeding. In the event of re-bleeding, repeated endoscopic haemostasis is indicated. The need for surgery is limited among cases where haemostasis can't be performed due to the position of the ulcer or the type of bleeding

Influence of metformin on metabolic effect of insulin in human adipose tissue in vitro

To study the mechanism(s) of action of metformin, fragments of human subcutaneous adipose tissue were incubated with therapeutic blood concentrations of metformin. In the absence of insulin no effect of metformin was seen on either lipolysis or glucose metabolism. When insulin was present, however, metformin stimulated glucose conversion into both triglycerides and CO2. In marked contrast, no effect of metformin was observed on the antilipolytic effect of insulin. In agreement with this selective effect no change in insulin binding was found. In conclusion, metformin seems to exert its effect on glucose metabolism by potentiating the action of insulin at a post-receptor level, possibly on the rate of glucose transport