A review of epidemiological parameters from Ebola outbreaks to inform early public health decision-making.

The unprecedented scale of the Ebola outbreak in West Africa has, as of 29 April 2015, resulted in more than 10,884 deaths among 26,277 cases. Prior to the ongoing outbreak, Ebola virus disease (EVD) caused relatively small outbreaks (maximum outbreak size 425 in Gulu, Uganda) in isolated populations in central Africa. Here, we have compiled a comprehensive database of estimates of epidemiological parameters based on data from past outbreaks, including the incubation period distribution, case fatality rate, basic reproduction number (R 0), effective reproduction number (R t) and delay distributions. We have compared these to parameter estimates from the ongoing outbreak in West Africa. The ongoing outbreak, because of its size, provides a unique opportunity to better understand transmission patterns of EVD. We have not performed a meta-analysis of the data, but rather summarize the estimates by virus from comprehensive investigations of EVD and Marburg outbreaks over the past 40 years. These estimates can be used to parameterize transmission models to improve understanding of initial spread of EVD outbreaks and to inform surveillance and control guidelines

Moving from a Product-Based Economy to a Service-Based Economy for a More Sustainable Future

Traditionally, economic growth and prosperity have been linked with the availability, production and distribution of tangible goods as well as the ability of consumers to acquire such goods. Early evidence regarding this connection dates back to Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations (1776), in which any activity not resulting in the production of a tangible good is characterized as unproductive of any value." Since then, this coupling of economic value and material production has been prevalent in both developed and developing economies throughout the world. One unintended consequence of this coupling has been the exponential increase in the amount of solid waste being generated. The reason is that any production and consumption of material goods eventually generates the equivalent amount of (or even more) waste. Exacerbating this problem is the fact that, with today's manufacturing and supply chain management technologies, it has become cheaper to dispose and replace most products rather than to repair and reuse them. This has given rise to what some call a disposable society." To put things in perspective: In 2012 households in the U.K. generated approximately 22 thousand tons of waste, which amounted to 411 kg of waste generated per person (Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs, 2015). During the same time period, households in the U.S. generated 251 million tons of waste, which is equivalent to a person generating approximately 2 kg of waste every day (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2012). Out of these 251 million tons of total waste generated, approximately 20% of the discarded items were categorized as durable goods. The disposal of durable goods is particularly worrisome because they are typically produced using material from non- renewable resources such as iron, minerals, and petroleum-based raw materials

Population-Wide Emergence of Antiviral Resistance during Pandemic Influenza

Background: The emergence of neuraminidase inhibitor resistance has raised concerns about the prudent use of antiviral drugs in response to the next influenza pandemic. While resistant strains may initially emerge with compromised viral fitness, mutations that largely compensate for this impaired fitness can arise. Understanding the extent to which these mutations affect the spread of disease in the population can have important implications for developing pandemic plans. Methodology/Principal Findings: By employing a deterministic mathematical model, we investigate possible scenarios for the emergence of population-wide resistance in the presence of antiviral drugs. The results show that if the treatment level (the fraction of clinical infections which receives treatment) is maintained constant during the course of the outbreak, there is an optimal level that minimizes the final size of the pandemic. However, aggressive treatment above the optimal level can substantially promote the spread of highly transmissible resistant mutants and increase the total number of infections. We demonstrate that resistant outbreaks can occur more readily when the spread of disease is further delayed by applying other curtailing measures, even if treatment levels are kept modest. However, by changing treatment levels over the course of the pandemic, it is possible to reduce the final size of the pandemic below the minimum achieved at the optimal constant level. This reduction can occur with low treatment levels during the early stages of the pandemic, followed by a sharp increase in drug-use before the virus becomes widely spread. Conclusions/Significance: Our findings suggest that an adaptive antiviral strategy with conservative initial treatment levels, followed by a timely increase in the scale of drug-use, can minimize the final size of a pandemic while preventing large outbreaks of resistant infections

Liver transplantation for type I and type IV glycogen storage disease

Progressive liver failure or hepatic complications of the primary disease led to orthotopic liver transplantation in eight children with glycogen storage disease over a 9-year period. One patient had glycogen storage disease (GSD) type I (von Gierke disease) and seven patients had type IV GSD (Andersen disease). As previously reported [19], a 16.5-year-old-girl with GSD type I was successfully treated in 1982 by orthotopic liver transplantation under cyclosporine and steroid immunosuppression. The metabolic consequences of the disease have been eliminated, the renal function and size have remained normal, and the patient has lived a normal young adult life. A late portal venous thrombosis was treated successfully with a distal splenorenal shunt. Orthotopic liver transplantation was performed in seven children with type N GSD who had progressive hepatic failure. Two patients died early from technical complications. The other five have no evidence of recurrent hepatic amylopectinosis after 1.1–5.8 postoperative years. They have had good physical and intellectual maturation. Amylopectin was found in many extrahepatic tissues prior to surgery, but cardiopathy and skeletal myopathy have not developed after transplantation. Postoperative heart biopsies from patients showed either minimal amylopectin deposits as long as 4.5 years following transplantation or a dramatic reduction in sequential biopsies from one patient who initially had dense myocardial deposits. Serious hepatic derangement is seen most commonly in types T and IV GSD. Liver transplantation cures the hepatic manifestations of both types. The extrahepatic deposition of abnormal glycogen appears not to be problematic in type I disease, and while potentially more threatening in type IV disease, may actually exhibit signs of regression after hepatic allografting

Organisational participation and women - an attitude problem?

Employee participation is a dynamic and contested area of organisational behaviour, attracting continuing academic, practitioner and policy interest and debate. This chapter focuses on organisational participation and women

Antiviral resistance during pandemic influenza: implications for stockpiling and drug use

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The anticipated extent of antiviral use during an influenza pandemic can have adverse consequences for the development of drug resistance and rationing of limited stockpiles. The strategic use of drugs is therefore a major public health concern in planning for effective pandemic responses.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We employed a mathematical model that includes both sensitive and resistant strains of a virus with pandemic potential, and applies antiviral drugs for treatment of clinical infections. Using estimated parameters in the published literature, the model was simulated for various sizes of stockpiles to evaluate the outcome of different antiviral strategies.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We demonstrated that the emergence of highly transmissible resistant strains has no significant impact on the use of available stockpiles if treatment is maintained at low levels or the reproduction number of the sensitive strain is sufficiently high. However, moderate to high treatment levels can result in a more rapid depletion of stockpiles, leading to run-out, by promoting wide-spread drug resistance. We applied an antiviral strategy that delays the onset of aggressive treatment for a certain amount of time after the onset of the outbreak. Our results show that if high treatment levels are enforced too early during the outbreak, a second wave of infections can potentially occur with a substantially larger magnitude. However, a timely implementation of wide-scale treatment can prevent resistance spread in the population, and minimize the final size of the pandemic.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our results reveal that conservative treatment levels during the early stages of the outbreak, followed by a timely increase in the scale of drug-use, will offer an effective strategy to manage drug resistance in the population and avoid run-out. For a 1918-like strain, the findings suggest that pandemic plans should consider stockpiling antiviral drugs to cover at least 20% of the population.</p

The Cyprinodon variegatus genome reveals gene expression changes underlying differences in skull morphology among closely related species

Genes in durophage intersection set at 15 dpf. This is a comma separated table of the genes in the 15 dpf durophage intersection set. Given are edgeR results for each pairwise comparison. Columns indicating whether a gene is included in the intersection set at a threshold of 1.5 or 2 fold are provided. (CSV 13 kb

Dengue Dynamics in Binh Thuan Province, Southern Vietnam: Periodicity, Synchronicity and Climate Variability

Dengue has become a major international public health problem due to increasing geographic distribution and a transition from epidemic transmission with long inter-epidemic intervals to endemic transmission with seasonal fluctuation. Seasonal and multi-annual cycles in dengue incidence vary over time and space. We performed wavelet analyses on time series of monthly notified dengue cases in Binh Thuan province, southern Vietnam, from January 1994 to June 2009. We observed a continuous annual mode of oscillation with a non-stationary 2–3-year multi-annual cycle. We used phase differences to describe the spatio-temporal patterns which suggest that the seasonal wave of infection was either synchronous with all districts or moving away from Phan Thiet district, while the multi-annual wave of infection was moving towards Phan Thiet district. We also found a strong non-stationary association between ENSO indices and climate variables with dengue incidence. We provided insight in dengue population transmission dynamics over the past 14.5 years. Further studies on an extensive time series dataset are needed to test the hypothesis that epidemics emanate from larger cities in southern Vietnam

Hemagglutinin-neuraminidase balance confers respiratory-droplet transmissibility of the Pandemic H1N1 Influenza virus in ferrets

Conference Theme: Translating Health Research into Policy and Practice for Health of the PopulationPoster Presentations: Emerging / Infectious Diseases: no. P66-Ab0011published_or_final_versio