858 research outputs found

    Disease prevention versus data privacy : using landcover maps to inform spatial epidemic models

    Get PDF
    The availability of epidemiological data in the early stages of an outbreak of an infectious disease is vital for modelers to make accurate predictions regarding the likely spread of disease and preferred intervention strategies. However, in some countries, the necessary demographic data are only available at an aggregate scale. We investigated the ability of models of livestock infectious diseases to predict epidemic spread and obtain optimal control policies in the event of imperfect, aggregated data. Taking a geographic information approach, we used land cover data to predict UK farm locations and investigated the influence of using these synthetic location data sets upon epidemiological predictions in the event of an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. When broadly classified land cover data were used to create synthetic farm locations, model predictions deviated significantly from those simulated on true data. However, when more resolved subclass land use data were used, moderate to highly accurate predictions of epidemic size, duration and optimal vaccination and ring culling strategies were obtained. This suggests that a geographic information approach may be useful where individual farm-level data are not available, to allow predictive analyses to be carried out regarding the likely spread of disease. This method can also be used for contingency planning in collaboration with policy makers to determine preferred control strategies in the event of a future outbreak of infectious disease in livestock

    Stellar Disk Truncations: Where do we stand ?

    Full text link
    In the light of several recent developments we revisit the phenomenon of galactic stellar disk truncations. Even 25 years since the first paper on outer breaks in the radial light profiles of spiral galaxies, their origin is still unclear. The two most promising explanations are that these 'outer edges' either trace the maximum angular momentum during the galaxy formation epoch, or are associated with global star formation thresholds. Depending on their true physical nature, these outer edges may represent an improved size characteristic (e.g., as compared to D_25) and might contain fossil evidence imprinted by the galaxy formation and evolutionary history. We will address several observational aspects of disk truncations: their existence, not only in normal HSB galaxies, but also in LSB and even dwarf galaxies; their detailed shape, not sharp cut-offs as thought before, but in fact demarcating the start of a region with a steeper exponential distribution of starlight; their possible association with bars; as well as problems related to the line-of-sight integration for edge-on galaxies (the main targets for truncation searches so far). Taken together, these observations currently favour the star-formation threshold model, but more work is necessary to implement the truncations as adequate parameters characterising galactic disks.Comment: LaTeX, 10 pages, 6 figures, presented at the "Penetrating Bars through Masks of Cosmic Dust" conference in South Africa, proceedings published by Kluwer, and edited by Block, D.L., Freeman, K.C., Puerari, I., & Groess, R; v3 to match published versio

    Industrial Structure and Political Outcomes: The Case of the 2016 US Presidential Election

    Get PDF
    This paper analyzes the US presidential election of 2016, examining the patterns of industrial structure and party competition in both the major party primaries and the general election. It attempts to identify the new, historically specific factors that led to the upheavals, especially the steady growth of a “dual economy” that locks more and more Americans out of the middle class. It draws extensively on a newly assembled, more comprehensive database to identify the specific political forces that coalesced around each candidate, including the various stages of the Trump campaign

    Risk factors for exacerbations and pneumonia in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a pooled analysis.

    Get PDF
    BACKGROUND: Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are at risk of exacerbations and pneumonia; how the risk factors interact is unclear. METHODS: This post-hoc, pooled analysis included studies of COPD patients treated with inhaled corticosteroid (ICS)/long-acting β2 agonist (LABA) combinations and comparator arms of ICS, LABA, and/or placebo. Backward elimination via Cox's proportional hazards regression modelling evaluated which combination of risk factors best predicts time to first (a) pneumonia, and (b) moderate/severe COPD exacerbation. RESULTS: Five studies contributed: NCT01009463, NCT01017952, NCT00144911, NCT00115492, and NCT00268216. Low body mass index (BMI), exacerbation history, worsening lung function (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease [GOLD] stage), and ICS treatment were identified as factors increasing pneumonia risk. BMI was the only pneumonia risk factor influenced by ICS treatment, with ICS further increasing risk for those with BMI <25 kg/m2. The modelled probability of pneumonia varied between 3 and 12% during the first year. Higher exacerbation risk was associated with a history of exacerbations, poorer lung function (GOLD stage), female sex and absence of ICS treatment. The influence of the other exacerbation risk factors was not modified by ICS treatment. Modelled probabilities of an exacerbation varied between 31 and 82% during the first year. CONCLUSIONS: The probability of an exacerbation was considerably higher than for pneumonia. ICS reduced exacerbations but did not influence the effect of risks associated with prior exacerbation history, GOLD stage, or female sex. The only identified risk factor for ICS-induced pneumonia was BMI <25 kg/m2. Analyses of this type may help the development of COPD risk equations

    The morphologies of massive galaxies at 1 < z < 3 in the CANDELS-UDS field : compact bulges, and the rise and fall of massive discs

    Get PDF
    We have used high-resolution, Hubble Space Telescope, near-infrared imaging to conduct a detailed analysis of the morphological properties of the most massive galaxies at high redshift, modelling the WFC3/IR H-160-band images of the similar or equal to 200 galaxies in the CANDELS-UDS field with photometric redshifts 1 10(11)M(circle dot). We have explored the results of fitting single-Sersic and bulge+disc models, and have investigated the additional errors and potential biases introduced by uncertainties in the background and the on-image point spread function. This approach has enabled us to obtain formally acceptable model fits to the WFC3/IR images of > 90 per cent of the galaxies. Our results indicate that these massive galaxies at 1 2 the compact bulges display effective radii a factor of similar or equal to 4 smaller than local ellipticals of comparable mass. These trends also appear to extend to the bulge components of disc-dominated galaxies. In addition, we find that, while such massive galaxies at low redshift are generally bulge-dominated, at redshifts 1 2 they are mostly disc-dominated. The majority of the disc-dominated galaxies are actively forming stars, although this is also true for many of the bulge-dominated systems. Interestingly, however, while most of the quiescent galaxies are bulge-dominated, we find that a significant fraction (25-40 per cent) of the most quiescent galaxies, with specific star formation rates sSFR < 10(-10) yr(-1), have disc-dominated morphologies. Thus, while our results show that the massive galaxy population is undergoing dramatic changes at this crucial epoch, they also suggest that the physical mechanisms which quench star formation activity are not simply connected to those responsible for the morphological transformation of massive galaxies into present-day giant ellipticals

    Structural parameters of galaxies in CANDELS

    Get PDF
    We present global structural parameter measurements of 109,533 unique, H-F160W-selected objects from the CANDELS multi-cycle treasury program. Sersic model fits for these objects are produced with GALFIT in all available near-infrared filters (H-F160W, J(F125W) and, for a subset, Y-F105W). The parameters of the best-fitting Sersic models (total magnitude, half-light radius, Sersic index, axis ratio, and position angle) are made public, along with newly constructed point-spread functions for each field and filter. Random uncertainties in the measured parameters are estimated for each individual object based on a comparison between multiple, independent measurements of the same set of objects. To quantify systematic uncertainties, we create a mosaic with simulated galaxy images with a realistic distribution of input parameters and then process and analyze the mosaic in an identical manner as the real data. We find that accurate and precise measurements-to 10% or better-of all structural parameters can typically be obtained for galaxies with H-F160W < 23, with comparable fidelity for basic size and shape measurements for galaxies to H-F160W similar to 24.5

    The between and within day variation in gross efficiency

    Get PDF
    Before the influence of divergent factors on gross efficiency (GE) [the ratio of mechanical power output (PO) to metabolic power input (PI)] can be assessed, the variation in GE between days, i.e. the test–retest reliability, and the within day variation needs to be known. Physically active males (n = 18) performed a maximal incremental exercise test to obtain VO2max and PO at VO2max (PVO2max), and three experimental testing days, consisting of seven submaximal exercise bouts evenly distributed over the 24 h of the day. Each submaximal exercise bout consisted of six min cycling at 45, 55 and 65% PVO2max, during which VO2 and RER were measured. GE was determined from the final 3 min of each exercise intensity with: GE = (PO/PI) × 100%. PI was calculated by multiplying VO2 with the oxygen equivalent. GE measured during the individually highest exercise intensity with RER <1.0 did not differ significantly between days (F = 2.70, p = 0.08), which resulted in lower and upper boundaries of the 95% limits of agreement of 19.6 and 20.8%, respectively, around a mean GE of 20.2%. Although there were minor within day variations in GE, differences in GE over the day were not significant (F = 0.16, p = 0.99). The measurement of GE during cycling at intensities approximating VT is apparently very robust, a change in GE of ~0.6% can be reliably detected. Lastly, GE does not display a circadian rhythm so long as the criteria of a steady-state VO2 and RER <1.0 are applied

    Algebraic characteristic classes for idempotent matrices

    Get PDF
    This paper contains the algebraic analog for idempotent matrices of the Chern-Weil theory of characteristic classes. This is used to show, algebraically, that the canonical line bundle on the complex projective space is not stably trivial. Also a theorem is proved saying that for any smooth manifold there is a canonical epimorphism from the even dimensional algebraic de Rham cohomology of its algebra of smooth functions onto the standard even dimensional de Rham cohomology of the manifold

    Conceptual framework and rationale

    Get PDF
    The sterile insect technique (SIT) has been shown to be an effective and sustainable genetic approach to control populations of selected major pest insects, when part of area-wide integrated pest management (AW-IPM) programmes. The technique introduces genetic sterility in females of the target population in the field following their mating with released sterile males. This process results in population reduction or elimination via embryo lethality caused by dominant lethal mutations induced in sperm of the released males. In the past, several field trials have been carried out for mosquitoes with varying degrees of success. New technology and experience gained with other species of insect pests has encouraged a reassessment of the use of the sterility principle as part of integrated control of malaria vectors. Significant technical and logistic hurdles will need to be overcome to develop the technology and make it effective to suppress selected vector populations, and its application will probably be limited to specific ecological situations. Using sterile males to control mosquito vector populations can only be effective as part of an AW-IPM programme. The area-wide concept entails the targeting of the total mosquito population within a defined area. It requires, therefore, a thorough understanding of the target pest population biology especially as regards mating behaviour, population dynamics, dispersal and level of reproductive isolation. The key challenges for success are: 1) devising methods to monitor vector populations and measuring competitiveness of sterile males in the field, 2) designing mass rearing, sterilization and release strategies that maintain competitiveness of the sterile male mosquitoes, 3) developing methods to separate sexes in order to release only male mosquitoes and 4) adapting suppression measures and release rates to take into account the high reproductive rate of mosquitoes. Finally, success in area-wide implementation in the field can only be achieved if close attention is paid to political, socio-economic and environmental sensitivities and an efficient management organization is established taking into account the interests of all potential stakeholders of an AW-IPM programme
    corecore