Forecasting Equicorrelation

We study the out-of-sample forecasting performance of several time-series models of equicorrelation, which is the average pairwise correlation between a number of assets. Building on the existing Dynamic Conditional Correlation and Linear Dynamic Equicorrelation models, we propose a model that uses proxies for equicorrelation based on high-frequency intraday data, and the level of equicorrelation implied by options prices. Using state-of-the-art statistical evaluation technology, we find that the use of both realized and implied equicorrelations outperform models that use daily data alone. However, the out-of-sample forecasting benefits of implied equicorrelation disappear when used in conjunction with the realized measures.Equicorrelation, Implied Correlation, Multivariate GARCH, DCC

Phylogenetic relationships of the Wolbachia of nematodes and arthropods

Wolbachia are well known as bacterial symbionts of arthropods, where they are reproductive parasites, but have also been described from nematode hosts, where the symbiotic interaction has features of mutualism. The majority of arthropod Wolbachia belong to clades A and B, while nematode Wolbachia mostly belong to clades C and D, but these relationships have been based on analysis of a small number of genes. To investigate the evolution and relationships of Wolbachia symbionts we have sequenced over 70 kb of the genome of wOvo, a Wolbachia from the human-parasitic nematode Onchocerca volvulus, and compared the genes identified to orthologues in other sequenced Wolbachia genomes. In comparisons of conserved local synteny, we find that wBm, from the nematode Brugia malayi, and wMel, from Drosophila melanogaster, are more similar to each other than either is to wOvo. Phylogenetic analysis of the protein-coding and ribosomal RNA genes on the sequenced fragments supports reciprocal monophyly of nematode and arthropod Wolbachia. The nematode Wolbachia did not arise from within the A clade of arthropod Wolbachia, and the root of the Wolbachia clade lies between the nematode and arthropod symbionts. Using the wOvo sequence, we identified a lateral transfer event whereby segments of the Wolbachia genome were inserted into the Onchocerca nuclear genome. This event predated the separation of the human parasite O. volvulus from its cattle-parasitic sister species, O. ochengi. The long association between filarial nematodes and Wolbachia symbionts may permit more frequent genetic exchange between their genomes

Protein Feeds for the War Period

The shortage of high-protein feeds and protein supplements for livestock is becoming more acute every day. Supplies of animal protein are not large enough to meet present needs mainly because of the increased demand for them due to (1) greater use of protein feeds by livestock producers in order to provide more milk, meat, and eggs, and (2) the need for larger amounts of casein and other animal proteins, as well as certain vegetable proteins, in war industries. It has been estimated that the shortage of protein concentrates in the United States will exceed 1,810,000 tons for 1943.\u27 Because of this shortage it is very important to the war effort that every livestock producer-farmer, rancher, and livestock feeder-do everything within his power to use existing supplies efficiently and to produce more protein feeds. He can use them best by avoiding overfeeding and other waste of feed, culling out low-producing animals and selling them, and using methods approved by authorities to control diseases and maintain sanitation

Relative hyperbolicity and similar properties of one-generator one-relator relative presentations with powered unimodular relator

A group obtained from a nontrivial group by adding one generator and one relator which is a proper power of a word in which the exponent-sum of the additional generator is one contains the free square of the initial group and almost always (with one obvious exception) contains a non-abelian free subgroup. If the initial group is involution-free or the relator is at least third power, then the obtained group is SQ-universal and relatively hyperbolic with respect to the initial group.Comment: 11 pages. A Russian version of this paper is at http://mech.math.msu.su/department/algebra/staff/klyachko/papers.htm V3: revised following referee's comment