Towards integrated catchment management : challenges surrounding implementation in the Gamtoos River catchment

Water resource management has become a pertinent issue of global environmental concern in response to the conditions of a growing global population, increasing development and a limited freshwater supply. It is against the backdrop of such conditions that effective water resource management has gained popularity in seeking to ensure that the needs of the growing population will be met and secured for future generations. The notion of integrated water resource management (IWRM) is a perspective on water resource management that has evolved out of the global opinion that social and ecological systems are linked and therefore cannot be managed separately. The department of water affairs (DWA) in South Africa highlights the importance of approaching management of water resources from a catchment perspective which forms the basis for a particular integrated approach to management called integrated catchment management (ICM). ICM recognizes the catchment as the correct administrative unit for management. It integrates water resources and the land that forms the catchment area in planning and management. Researchers have described the implementation of ICM as being complicated and difficult. This is no exception to South Africa. Principles of ICM have received widespread prominence in South Africa as they have been incorporated into national water policy. Actual implementation however is still in its infancy. The study is therefore a case study of ICM with respect to factors influencing implementation amongst different stakeholders. The study aims to explore the theme of implementation of ICM within the context of the Gamtoos River Catchment with a view toward identifying and addressing challenges that may be more broadly applicable. The study adopts an inductive, exploratory approach to the connection between theory and practice. A systems-based framework characterized by sequential steps similar to that employed in a case study conducted by Bellamy et al. (2001) in Queensland Australia is used to facilitate the evaluation of ICM in the Gamtoos River Catchment. The evaluation is achieved through a three step process of exploration in the current study. Triangulation is applied to the choice of methods of analysis which involves the use of a global analysis method, the use of learning scenarios and a grounded theory method. Findings reveal seven core themes which help to provide a detailed, contextual understanding relating to the status quo for ICM in the catchment. Results from a grounded theory analysis summarized the main challenges to implementation into five broad categories. Based on this analysis method and the application of the three learning scenarios for the Gamtoos River Catchment, the extent to which these challenges exist was discovered. The state of ICM in the catchment was classified as falling within a condition of a level of success being achieved with room for improvement to a condition of optimal ICM. The study concludes that based on the context of ICM being an example of a Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS), this state of ICM in the Gamtoos River Catchment is subject to change. This therefore necessitates the consideration of approaches to implementation that are adaptive to change. Findings may serve to inform decision making on how ICM can be effectively implemented elsewhere in a South African context

중국발전 중 도시-연변에서의 대기 중 이산화탄소의 연속관측 및 진단에 대한 연구

High-Precision (±0.1 ppm), high-frequency (hourly averaged) measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) were made for the first time from May 2005 to November 2011 at Yanbian in China, using a Non-Dispersive Infrared (NDIR, Licor-6262) analyzer system with National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration/Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL) standards. This study presents about six and a half of years results from these measurements, including discussions on data quality control, data selection based on the characteristics of stations conditions, background data characteristics through comparing with other background observatories data in Northern Hemisphere (NH) and on the techniques for determining the CO2 emission source regions in northeast Asia according to the value of the emission strengths. Especially this study discusses the results at Yanbian compared with the results at Gosan-remote site to investigate the similarities and differences. In order to obtain adequate observation data, high-precision, high-frequency in situ measurements of CO2 based on well-designed measurement equipment is very important. Strict data quality control and assurance procedures were carried out throughout the data acquisition. Data selection was carefully performed based on the characteristics in Yanbian. In this study, local data, regional data were divided from the total valid measurement data, and regional background data and regional emission data were classified from the regional data. Each step, we apply different methods which were discussed respectively. We discussed the characteristics of sampling data and the potential source direction with the method of wind weighted CO2 concentration and variation with meteorological conditions. We also investigated the local and regional data contributing effect with the method of wind weighted appropriated CO2 concentration. The increasing trend of regional background data of all sampling period with about 1.9 ppm/yr was in good agreement with the global growth rate in recent years. The characteristics of regional background CO2 concentrations of in-situ measurement at Yanbian from August 2005 to July 2007 were discussed in detail and compared with those of other NH global baseline and regional background stations. A comparison of the regional background data at Yanbian with concentrations at other background observatories in the middle-to-high Northern Hemisphere demonstrated the regional representativeness of the former. The large seasonal variation observed from the regional background data at Yanbian was in excellent agreement overall with those found by other observatories in the middle-to-high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere and represents special characteristics: the summer concentration drops to a slightly lower than Ulaan Uul, and the winter concentration rises to be on par with Anmyeon-do. Particularly, the distinctive characteristics at Yanbian were evident through comparing with the similar latitude and altitude regional background site –Longfengshan, and with the lower latitude and higher altitude global baseline site-Mauna Loa. And the study also discussed the results of Yanbian compared with that of Gosan- remote site as the representative of Northeast Asia. Because the period of dataset of two sites does not overlap, at first datasets were detrended appropriately at both sites to compare the characteristics objectively. From those results, the diurnal and seasonal variation at Yanbian was shown to be stronger than at Gosan, increasing trend was similar with at Gosan. The regional emission data of two-year from August 2005 to July 2007, the elevated concentration above background, combined with three-dimensional synoptic meteorology from the HYSPLIT4 (Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrange Integrated Trajectory) model were used to estimate the regional source region according to the value of emission strength contributing to receptor site (Yanbian). We limited the modeling period to between November-April (cold period) to reduce uncertainties in the model. Due to the winter monsoon, air mass predominantly comes from north China and allow for better capturing of the signal from heating period. The model results indicate the strongest potential source areas contributing to measurement site at Yanbian are the southwestern part of Shandong Province including Jinan, Beijing & Tianjin metropolitan region and Vladivostok. In addition, the tracer-ratio (CO as a trace) technique was used to make preliminary estimates the CO2 emission of China in 2006. The results showed emissions twice as high as the previous inventory. Granted that the results of this study may be somewhat overestimated because we refer the ratio of 6 months averages as a year value, our results suggest that the previous CO2 emission inventory of China maybe underestimated in not fully considering the fossil fuel emissions for the heating period in northern China. The results of this study reveal the usefulness of in situ CO2 measurements at Yanbian for establishing the scientific foundation for monitoring the large CO2 emission areas in northern China and eastern Russia. Although situated near large local emission sources, with careful and scientific data selection, our results conformed that continued monitoring of CO2 at Yanbian within a regional network can make significant contributions in understanding both the global/regional carbon cycle and constraining top-down emissions in northeast Asia.중국연변사이트에서 처음으로 2005년 8월부터 현재까지 비분산형적외선분석기 (NDIR, Licor-6262) 를 기반으로 고 정밀 (±0.1 ppm), 고 빈도 (hour-1) 의 대기 중 이산화탄소의 관측이 이루어졌으며 NOAA의 CMDL/CCGG에서 제공하는 이산화탄소 표준시료를 사용하였다. 본 연구에서는 6년 반의 데이터가 사용이 되었으며 데이터의 검증, 데이터의 분석 및 북반구에 위치한 다른 배경관측소와의 비교분석을 통하여 지역적 배경대기농도의 특징에 대하여 토론하였으며 지역적 배출강도에 근거하여 동북아사아에서의 잠재적인 소스지역을 추정하는 기법에 대하여 토론하였다. 그리고 본 연구에서는 특별히 고산, Longfengshan, 및 마우나 로아와의 세밀한 비교분석을 통하여 연변사이트의 특징을 한층 더 심도있게 살펴보았다. 정확한 데이터를 획득하기 위하여 고 정밀, 고 빈도의 연속관측이 가능 한 정확한 장비가 필요하다. 엄격한 자료검증절차는 자료를 획득하는 전반에 걸쳐 모두 실시된다. 연변사이트의 특징에 근거하여 자료의 선별이 세밀히 이루어진다. 본 연구에서는 우선 전체 유효한 데이터를 local data와 regional data로 분류하였으며 regional data를 진일보 regional background data 와 regional emission data로 분류하였습니다. 자료선별의 매개 절차에서 사용 되어진 부동한 방법은 각각 상세히 설명을 드렸다. 우리는 전체 데이터의 특징에 대하여 토론을 하였고 wind weighted CO2 concentration방법으로 잠재적인 소스방향을 추정하였다. 그리고 local과 regional데이터에 근거하여 wind weighted 상응한 CO2 concentration. 하여 local 및 regional의 잠재적인 소스방향을 추정하였다. 전체관측기간 동안 regional background data의 증가추세는 1.9 ppm/yr로서 최근의 전지구적인 증가추세와 일치하다. 2005년 8월부터 2007년 7월까지의 연속관측에서의 regional 배경 CO2 농도의 특징에 대하여 자세한 토론을 진행하였으며 북반구에 위치한 다른 global baseline 과 regional background의 관측소와 비교분석을 진행함으로써 연변지역적인 대표성을 한층 더 증명하여 주었다. 연변사이트에서의 regional background data의 큰 계절적인 변화는 북반구에 위치한 다른 관측소와의 값과 비슷한 특징을 나타낸다. 예를 들면 여름철에는 Ulaan Uul보다 조금 낮은 값을 나타내고 겨울철에는 안면도와 비슷한 값을 나타낸다. 특별하게, 비슷한 위도 및 고도에 위치한 Longfengshan사이트와의 비교 및더 낮은 위도 및 높은 고도에 위치한 Mauna Loa사이트와의 비교분석을 통하여 연변사이트의 특징이 더 두드러지게 나타났다. 그리고 연변에서의 관측 한 결과를 동북아시아를 대표하는 먼 사이트인 고산의 관측치와 비교분석을 진행하였다. 두 dataset의 관측기간이 겹치지 않기 때문에 우선 목적성 있게 일정한 값에 대하여 detrend를 하여 그 특징에 대하여 비교 분석을 진행하였다. 결과를 살펴보면 연변에서의 일변화 및 계절적인 변화는 고산보다 더 강함을 나타내었고 증가추세는 고산과 유사한 값을 나타냈다. 2005년 8월부터 2007년 7월까지의 2년의 regional emission data에서 regional background data보다 증가 된 값을 HYSPLIT4 (Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrange Integrated Trajectory) 모델로 얻은 삼차원의 공간적 기상자료와 결합하여 획득한 배출강도에 근거하여 receptor site (Yanbian) 에 영향을 주는 potential source region을 추정하였다. 우리는 모델의 불 정확도를 줄이기 위하여 모델기간을 11월부터 이듬해 4월까지(추운 계절)로 정하였으며 이 시기에 겨울몬순에 의하여 기단이 대부분 중국의 북방에서 오고 있어 모델을 응용하기 적합한 시기인 것으로 여겨진다. 모델결과를 살펴보면 연변사이트에 영향을 주는 가장 큰 잠재적인 소스지역으로는 제남을 포함한 산동성 서남쪽, 북경 및 천지대도시 지역, 그리고 울라디보스독으로 추정이 되었다. 이외에 tracer-ratio (CO as a tracer) 기법을 이용하여 2006년 중국의 CO2 배출양을 초보적으로 추정하여 본 결과 기존의 배출양보다 두 배 되는 값을 보였다. 이 결과는 6개월 추운 시기의 비율을 전체 일년의 비율로 간주하여 배출 양을 산정하였기에 과대평가될 가능성이 크다 할지라도 기존의 배출양은 중국 북방의 난방기간 동안 화석연료에 의한 배출을 충분히 고려하지 못한 관계로 과소평가됨을 제시한다. 본 연구의 결과는 연변에서의 CO2 연속적인 관측이 중국북방과 러시아동방에서의 큰 CO2 배출지역의 모니터링에 과학적인 기반을 마련함에 있어서 유용할 것으로 보인다. 그리고 비록 배출지역과 가까운 곳에 위치하고 있지만 세심하고 과학적인 자료선별을 진행한다면 지역적인 네트워크속에서의 연변에서의 CO2의 지속적인 모니터링은 global/regional의 탄소순환을 이해하고 동북아시아지역에서의 top-down 배출 양을 산정함에 있어서 중요한 역할을 할 것으로 기대된다.Docto

Estimation of Potential Source Region in Northeast Asia through Continuous In-situ Measurement of Atmospheric CO2 at Gosan, Jeju Island, Korea

High-Precision (¡_0.1 ppm), high-frequency (hourly averaged) measurement of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) was made at Gosan Station on Jeju Island, Korea, using a Non-dispersive Infrared (NDIR) analyzer calibrated with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth Sys tem Re search Laboratory standards. This paper presents the one-year results from these measurements, including discussions on data quality control and data selection, data characteristics through comparing with other regional data and on the techniques for estimating potential source regions of pollution emissions in Northeast Asia with pollution events in the record

Theoretical Analysis of the Catalytic Hydrolysis Mechanism of HCN over Cu-ZSM-5

HCN catalytic hydrolysis mechanism over Cu-ZSM-5 was investigated based on the density functional theory (DFT) with 6-31++g (d, p) basis set. Five paths (A, B, C, D, and E) were designed. For path A and path B, the first step is the nucleophilic attack of water molecule. Next, the hydrogen atom of H2O is transferred to the nitrogen atom first for path A, while in path B, the hydrogen atom of the HCN is first transferred to the nitrogen atom. In path C, HCN isomerizes to HNC initially, and the remaining steps are similar to that of path A. The H atom of HCN shifts to Cu-ZSM-5 initially in path D, and the H atom is transferred to N atom subsequently. The last step is the attack on water molecule. The first step for path E is similar to that of path D. The next step is the attack on water molecule, in which the H atom of water molecule shifts to N atom, and the H on Cu-ZSM-5 shifts to the N atom. Meanwhile, the H atom of oxygen atom is transferred to the N atom. The results show that path C is the most favorable path, with the lowest free energy barrier (35.45 kcal/mol). The results indicate that the Cu-ZSM-5 strongly reduces the energy barrier of HCN and isomerizes to HNC, making it an effective catalyst for HCN hydrolysis

Theoretical Analysis of the Catalytic Hydrolysis Mechanism of HCN over Cu-ZSM-5

HCN catalytic hydrolysis mechanism over Cu-ZSM-5 was investigated based on the density functional theory (DFT) with 6-31++g (d, p) basis set. Five paths (A, B, C, D, and E) were designed. For path A and path B, the first step is the nucleophilic attack of water molecule. Next, the hydrogen atom of H2O is transferred to the nitrogen atom first for path A, while in path B, the hydrogen atom of the HCN is first transferred to the nitrogen atom. In path C, HCN isomerizes to HNC initially, and the remaining steps are similar to that of path A. The H atom of HCN shifts to Cu-ZSM-5 initially in path D, and the H atom is transferred to N atom subsequently. The last step is the attack on water molecule. The first step for path E is similar to that of path D. The next step is the attack on water molecule, in which the H atom of water molecule shifts to N atom, and the H on Cu-ZSM-5 shifts to the N atom. Meanwhile, the H atom of oxygen atom is transferred to the N atom. The results show that path C is the most favorable path, with the lowest free energy barrier (35.45 kcal/mol). The results indicate that the Cu-ZSM-5 strongly reduces the energy barrier of HCN and isomerizes to HNC, making it an effective catalyst for HCN hydrolysis

Preoperative evaluation of macrophage colony-stimulating factor levels in patients with endometrial cancer

OBJECTIVE: Our purpose was to examine the relationship between preoperative serum levels of macrophage colony-stimulating factor, alone and in combination with CA 125, and the presence of prognostic clinicopathologic factors and subclinical metastases in women with endometrial cancer. STUDY DESIGN: Ninety-two women who underwent primary exploration for endometrial adenocarcinoma had preoperative serum samples evaluated for macrophage colony-stimulating factor and CA 125 levels. Multivariate analysis was used to determine the associations of surgicopathologic findings with macrophage colony-stimulating factor and CA 125 levels. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with the risk of extrauterine disease. The association of macrophage colony-stimulating factor and CA 125 levels with stage, grade, and depth of myometrial invasion and histologic characteristics were analyzed with Fisher's two-tailed exact test. RESULTS: Elevated levels of macrophage colony-stimulating factor were not associated with depth of myometrial invasion, histologic grade, or histologic cell type; however, advanced stage ( p = 0.02) and the presence of lymph node metastases ( p = 0.04) were associated with elevated levels. Sensitivity and specificity of macrophage colony-stimulating factor for predicting extrauterine disease were 42% and 89%, respectively. If either an elevated macrophage colony-stimulating factor or an elevated CA 125 level was used to predict extrauterine disease, the sensitivity was increased to 67% but the specificity was decreased to 78%. Macrophage colony-stimulating factor elevations predicted lymph node metastases with a sensitivity of 50% and a specificity of 86%. A multivariate regression model showed CA 125 to be the most significant predictor of extrauterine disease; macrophage colony-stimulating factor also contributed prognostic information ( p = 0.02). The sensitivity and specificity of the multivariate model for predicting extrauterine disease were 75% and 73%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Macrophage colony-stimulating factor and CA 125 are neither sensitive nor specific enough to be used as predictors of the presence or absence of extrauterine disease in patients with endometrial cancer. (AM J OBSTET GYNECOL 1996;174:1316-9.