Autoregression as a means of assessing the strength of seasonality in a time series

BACKGROUND: The study of the seasonal variation of disease is receiving increasing attention from health researchers. Available statistical tests for seasonality typically indicate the presence or absence of statistically significant seasonality but do not provide a meaningful measure of its strength. METHODS: We propose the coefficient of determination of the autoregressive regression model fitted to the data ([Image: see text]) as a measure for quantifying the strength of the seasonality. The performance of the proposed statistic is assessed through a simulation study and using two data sets known to demonstrate statistically significant seasonality: atrial fibrillation and asthma hospitalizations in Ontario, Canada. RESULTS: The simulation results showed the power of the [Image: see text] in adequately quantifying the strength of the seasonality of the simulated observations for all models. In the atrial fibrillation and asthma datasets, while the statistical tests such as Bartlett's Kolmogorov-Smirnov (BKS) and Fisher's Kappa support statistical evidence of seasonality for both, the [Image: see text] quantifies the strength of that seasonality. Corroborating the visual evidence that asthma is more conspicuously seasonal than atrial fibrillation, the calculated [Image: see text] for atrial fibrillation indicates a weak to moderate seasonality ([Image: see text] = 0.44, 0.28 and 0.45 for both genders, males and females respectively), whereas for asthma, it indicates a strong seasonality ([Image: see text] = 0.82, 0.78 and 0.82 for both genders, male and female respectively). CONCLUSIONS: For the purposes of health services research, evidence of the statistical presence of seasonality is insufficient to determine the etiologic, clinical and policy relevance of findings. Measurement of the strength of the seasonal effect, as can be determined using the [Image: see text] technique, is also important in order to provide a robust sense of seasonality

Precipitation control over inorganic nitrogen import-export budgets across watersheds: a synthesis of long-term ecological research

ABSTRACT We investigated long-term and seasonal patterns of N imports and exports, as well as patterns following climate perturbations, across biomes using data from 15 watersheds from nine Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) sites in North America. Mean dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) import-export budgets (N import via precipitation-N export via stream flow) for common years across all watersheds was highly variable, ranging from a net loss of 0Ð17 š 0Ð09 kg N ha 1 mo 1 to net retention of 0Ð68 š 0Ð08 kg N ha 1 mo 1 . The net retention of DIN decreased (smaller import-export budget) with increasing precipitation, as well as with increasing variation in precipitation during the winter, spring, and fall. Averaged across all seasons, net DIN retention decreased as the coefficient of variation (CV) in precipitation increased across all sites (r 2 D 0Ð48, p D 0Ð005). This trend was made stronger when the disturbed watersheds were withheld from the analysis (r 2 D 0Ð80, p < 0Ð001, n D 11). Thus, DIN exports were either similar to or exceeded imports in the tropical, boreal, and wet coniferous watersheds, whereas imports exceeded exports in temperate deciduous watersheds. In general, forest harvesting, hurricanes, or floods corresponded with periods of increased DIN exports relative to imports. Periods when water throughput within a watershed was likely to be lower (i.e. low snow pack or El Niño years) corresponded with decreased DIN exports relative to imports. These data provide a basis for ranking diverse sites in terms of their ability to retain DIN in the context of changing precipitation regimes likely to occur in the future

Carcinogenic Effects in a Phenylketonuria Mouse Model

Phenylketonuria (PKU) is a metabolic disorder caused by impaired phenylalanine hydroxylase (PAH). This condition results in hyperphenylalaninemia and elevated levels of abnormal phenylalanine metabolites, among which is phenylacetic acid/phenylacetate (PA). In recent years, PA and its analogs were found to have anticancer activity against a variety of malignancies suggesting the possibility that PKU may offer protection against cancer through chronically elevated levels of PA. We tested this hypothesis in a genetic mouse model of PKU (PAHenu2) which has a biochemical profile that closely resembles that of human PKU. Plasma levels of phenylalanine in homozygous (HMZ) PAHenu2 mice were >12-fold those of heterozygous (HTZ) littermates while tyrosine levels were reduced. Phenylketones, including PA, were also markedly elevated to the range seen in the human disease. Mice were subjected to 7,12 dimethylbenz[a]anthracene (DMBA) carcinogenesis, a model which is sensitive to the anticancer effects of the PA derivative 4-chlorophenylacetate (4-CPA). Tumor induction by DMBA was not significantly different between the HTZ and HMZ mice, either in total tumor development or in the type of cancers that arose. HMZ mice were then treated with 4-CPA as positive controls for the anticancer effects of PA and to evaluate its possible effects on phenylalanine metabolism in PKU mice. 4-CPA had no effect on the plasma concentrations of phenylalanine, phenylketones, or tyrosine. Surprisingly, the HMZ mice treated with 4-CPA developed an unexplained neuromuscular syndrome which precluded its use in these animals as an anticancer agent. Together, these studies support the use of PAHenu2 mice as a model for studying human PKU. Chronically elevated levels of PA in the PAHenu2 mice were not protective against cancer

Season of Sampling and Season of Birth Influence Serotonin Metabolite Levels in Human Cerebrospinal Fluid

BACKGROUND: Animal studies have revealed seasonal patterns in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) monoamine (MA) turnover. In humans, no study had systematically assessed seasonal patterns in CSF MA turnover in a large set of healthy adults. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Standardized amounts of CSF were prospectively collected from 223 healthy individuals undergoing spinal anesthesia for minor surgical procedures. The metabolites of serotonin (5-hydroxyindoleacetic acid, 5-HIAA), dopamine (homovanillic acid, HVA) and norepinephrine (3-methoxy-4-hydroxyphenylglycol, MPHG) were measured using high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Concentration measurements by sampling and birth dates were modeled using a non-linear quantile cosine function and locally weighted scatterplot smoothing (LOESS, span = 0.75). The cosine model showed a unimodal season of sampling 5-HIAA zenith in April and a nadir in October (p-value of the amplitude of the cosine = 0.00050), with predicted maximum (PC(max)) and minimum (PC(min)) concentrations of 173 and 108 nmol/L, respectively, implying a 60% increase from trough to peak. Season of birth showed a unimodal 5-HIAA zenith in May and a nadir in November (p = 0.00339; PC(max) = 172 and PC(min) = 126). The non-parametric LOESS showed a similar pattern to the cosine in both season of sampling and season of birth models, validating the cosine model. A final model including both sampling and birth months demonstrated that both sampling and birth seasons were independent predictors of 5-HIAA concentrations. CONCLUSION: In subjects without mental illness, 5-HT turnover shows circannual variation by season of sampling as well as season of birth, with peaks in spring and troughs in fall

Monitoring biological wastewater treatment processes: Recent advances in spectroscopy applications

Biological processes based on aerobic and anaerobic technologies have been continuously developed to wastewater treatment and are currently routinely employed to reduce the contaminants discharge levels in the environment. However, most methodologies commonly applied for monitoring key parameters are labor intensive, time-consuming and just provide a snapshot of the process. Thus, spectroscopy applications in biological processes are, nowadays, considered a rapid and effective alternative technology for real-time monitoring though still lacking implementation in full-scale plants. In this review, the application of spectroscopic techniques to aerobic and anaerobic systems is addressed focusing on UV--Vis, infrared, and fluorescence spectroscopy. Furthermore, chemometric techniques, valuable tools to extract the relevant data, are also referred. To that effect, a detailed analysis is performed for aerobic and anaerobic systems to summarize the findings that have been obtained since 2000. Future prospects for the application of spectroscopic techniques in biological wastewater treatment processes are further discussed.The authors thank the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) under the scope of the strategic funding of UID/BIO/04469/2013 unit, COMPETE 2020 (POCI-01-0145-FEDER-006684) and the project RECI/BBB-EBI/0179/2012 (FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-027462) and BioTecNorte operation (NORTE-01-0145-FEDER-000004) funded by the European Regional Development Fund under the scope of Norte2020 - Programa Operacional Regional do Norte. The authors also acknowledge the financial support to Daniela P. Mesquita and Cristina Quintelas through the postdoctoral Grants (SFRH/BPD/82558/2011 and SFRH/BPD/101338/2014) provided by FCT - Portugal.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Persistence of dissolved organic matter explained by molecular changes during its passage through soil

Dissolved organic matter affects fundamental biogeochemical processes in the soil such as nutrient cycling and organic matter storage. The current paradigm is that processing of dissolved organic matter converges to recalcitrant molecules (those that resist degradation) of low molecular mass and high molecular diversity through biotic and abiotic processes. Here we demonstrate that the molecular composition and properties of dissolved organic matter continuously change during soil passage and propose that this reflects a continual shifting of its sources. Using ultrahigh-resolution mass spectrometry and nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, we studied the molecular changes of dissolved organic matter from the soil surface to 60 cm depth in 20 temperate grassland communities in soil type Eutric Fluvisol. Applying a semi-quantitative approach, we observed that plant-derived molecules were first broken down into molecules containing a large proportion of low-molecular-mass compounds. These low-molecular-mass compounds became less abundant during soil passage, whereas larger molecules, depleted in plant-related ligno-cellulosic structures, became more abundant. These findings indicate that the small plant-derived molecules were preferentially consumed by microorganisms and transformed into larger microbial-derived molecules. This suggests that dissolved organic matter is not intrinsically recalcitrant but instead persists in soil as a result of simultaneous consumption, transformation and formation

Antenatal allopurinol for reduction of birth asphyxia induced brain damage (ALLO-Trial); a randomized double blind placebo controlled multicenter study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Hypoxic-ischaemic encephalopathy is associated with development of cerebral palsy and cognitive disability later in life and is therefore one of the fundamental problems in perinatal medicine. The xanthine-oxidase inhibitor allopurinol reduces the formation of free radicals, thereby limiting the amount of hypoxia-reperfusion damage. In case of suspected intra-uterine hypoxia, both animal and human studies suggest that maternal administration of allopurinol immediately prior to delivery reduces hypoxic-ischaemic encephalopathy.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>The proposed trial is a randomized double blind placebo controlled multicenter study in pregnant women at term in whom the foetus is suspected of intra-uterine hypoxia.</p> <p>Allopurinol 500 mg IV or placebo will be administered antenatally to the pregnant woman when foetal hypoxia is suspected. Foetal distress is being diagnosed by the clinician as an abnormal or non-reassuring foetal heart rate trace, preferably accompanied by either significant ST-wave abnormalities (as detected by the STAN-monitor) or an abnormal foetal blood scalp sampling (pH < 7.20).</p> <p>Primary outcome measures are the amount of S100B (a marker for brain tissue damage) and the severity of oxidative stress (measured by isoprostane, neuroprostane, non protein bound iron and hypoxanthine), both measured in umbilical cord blood. Secondary outcome measures are neonatal mortality, serious composite neonatal morbidity and long-term neurological outcome. Furthermore pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics will be investigated.</p> <p>We expect an inclusion of 220 patients (110 per group) to be feasible in an inclusion period of two years. Given a suspected mean value of S100B of 1.05 ug/L (SD 0.37 ug/L) in the placebo group this trial has a power of 90% (alpha 0.05) to detect a mean value of S100B of 0.89 ug/L (SD 0.37 ug/L) in the 'allopurinol-treated' group (z-test_2-sided). Analysis will be by intention to treat and it allows for one interim analysis.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>In this trial we aim to answer the question whether antenatal allopurinol administration reduces hypoxic-ischaemic encephalopathy in neonates exposed to foetal hypoxia.</p> <p>Trial registration number</p> <p>Clinical Trials, protocol registration system: NCT00189007</p

Two Types of Planning in Neighborhoods

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/68338/2/10.1177_0739456X8400300209.pd