Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

Summary Background Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality. Methods We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung’s disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis. Findings We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung’s disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middleincome countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in lowincome countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality. Interpretation Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between lowincome, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030

Frailty in a racially and socioeconomically diverse sample of middle-aged Americans in Baltimore.

Frailty is a risk factor for disability and mortality, and is more prevalent among African American (AA) elderly than whites. We examine frailty in middle-aged racially and economically diverse adults, and investigate how race, poverty and frailty are associated with mortality. Data were from 2541 participants in the Healthy Aging in Neighborhoods of Diversity across the Life Span study in Baltimore, Maryland; 35-64 years old at initial assessment (56% women; 58% AA). Frailty was assessed using a modified FRAIL scale of fatigue, resistance, ambulation, illness and weight loss, and compared with difficulties in physical functioning and daily activities. Frailty prevalence was calculated across race and age groups, and associations with survival were assessed by Cox Regression. 278 participants were frail (11%); 924 pre-frail (36%); 1339 not frail (53%). For those aged 45-54, a higher proportion of whites (13%) than AAs (8%) were frail; while the proportions were similar for those 55-64 (14%,16%). Frailty was associated with overall survival with an average follow-up of 6.6 years, independent of race, sex and poverty status (HR = 2.30; 95%CI 1.67-3.18). In this sample of economically and racially diverse older adults, the known association of frailty prevalence and age differed across race with whites having higher prevalence at younger ages. Frailty was associated with survival beyond the risk factors of race and poverty status in this middle-aged group. Early recognition of frailty at these younger ages may provide an effective method for preventing or delaying disabilities

Distribution of demographic variables and health measures by frailty status.

<p>Distribution of demographic variables and health measures by frailty status.</p

Concurrent functional measures by frailty group.

<p>Concurrent functional measures by frailty group.</p

Overall survival by initial frailty group, stratified by age at enrollment.

<p>Overall survival by initial frailty group, stratified by age at enrollment.</p

Frailty prevalence by race and age group.

<p>Frailty prevalence by race and age group.</p

All-cause mortality hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals by frailty status and demographics.

<p>All-cause mortality hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals by frailty status and demographics.</p