Human campylobacteriosis related to cross-contamination during handling of raw chicken meat: Application of quantitative risk assessment to guide intervention scenarios analysis in the Australian context

Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) is a methodology used to organize and analyze scientific information to both estimate the probability and severity of an adverse event as well as prioritize efforts to reduce the risk of foodborne pathogens. No QMRA efforts have been applied to Campylobacter in the Australian chicken meat sector. Hence, we present a QMRA model of human campylobacteriosis related to the occurrence of cross-contamination while handling raw chicken meat in Western Australia (WA). This work fills a gap in Campylobacter risk characterization in Australia and enables benchmarking against risk assessments undertaken in other countries. The model predicted the average probability of the occurrence of illness per serving of salad that became cross-contaminated from being handled following the handling of fresh chicken meat as 7.0 × 10−4 (90% Confidence Interval [CI] ± 4.7 × 10−5). The risk assessment model was utilized to estimate the likely impact of intervention scenarios on the predicted probability of illness (campylobacteriosis) per serving. Predicted relative risk reductions following changes in the retail prevalence of Campylobacter were proportional to the percentage desired in the reduction scenario; a target that is aiming to reduce the current baseline prevalence of Campylobacter in retail chicken by 30% is predicted to yield approximately 30% relative risk reduction. A simulated one-log reduction in the mean concentration of Campylobacter is anticipated to generate approximately 20% relative risk reductions. Relative risk reduction induced by a one-log decrease in the mean was equally achieved when the tail of the input distribution was affected—that is, by a change (one-log reduction) in the standard deviation of the baseline Campylobacter concentration. A scenario assuming a 5% point decrease in baseline probability of cross-contamination at the consumer phase would yield relative risk reductions of 14%, which is as effective as the impact of a strategic target of 10% reduction in the retail prevalence of Campylobacter. In conclusion, the present model simulates the probability of illness predicted for an average individual who consumes salad that has been cross-contaminated with Campylobacter from retail chicken meat in WA. Despite some uncertainties, this is the first attempt to utilize the QMRA approach as a scientific basis to guide risk managers toward implementing strategies to reduce the risk of human campylobacteriosis in an Australian context

Effectiveness of the ADEC as a level 2 screening test for young children with suspected autism spectrum disorders in a clinical setting

Background The Autism Detection in Early Childhood (ADEC) is a clinician-administered, Level 2 screening tool. A retrospective file audit was used to investigate its clinical effectiveness. Method Toddlers referred to an Australian child development service between 2008 and 2010 (N?=?53, M age?=?32.2 months) were screened with the ADEC. Their medical records were reviewed in 2013 when their mean age was 74.5 months, and the original ADEC screening results were compared with later diagnostic outcomes. Results The ADEC had good sensitivity (87.5%) and moderate specificity (62%). Three behaviours predicted autism spectrum disorders (ASDs): response to name, gaze switching, and gaze monitoring (p???.001). Conclusions The ADEC shows promise as a screening tool that can discriminate between young children with ASDs and those who have specific communication disorders or developmental delays that persist into middle childhood but who do not meet the criteria for ASDs

The effect of the ionosphere on ultra-low-frequency radio-interferometric observations

Context. The ionosphere is the main driver of a series of systematic effects that limit our ability to explore the low-frequency (<1 GHz) sky with radio interferometers. Its effects become increasingly important towards lower frequencies and are particularly hard to calibrate in the low signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) regime in which low-frequency telescopes operate. Aims. In this paper we characterise and quantify the effect of ionospheric-induced systematic errors on astronomical interferometric radio observations at ultra-low frequencies (<100 MHz). We also provide guidelines for observations and data reduction at these frequencies with the LOw Frequency ARray (LOFAR) and future instruments such as the Square Kilometre Array (SKA). Methods. We derive the expected systematic error induced by the ionosphere. We compare our predictions with data from the Low Band Antenna (LBA) system of LOFAR. Results. We show that we can isolate the ionospheric effect in LOFAR LBA data and that our results are compatible with satellite measurements, providing an independent way to measure the ionospheric total electron content (TEC). We show how the ionosphere also corrupts the correlated amplitudes through scintillations. We report values of the ionospheric structure function in line with the literature. Conclusions. The systematic errors on the phases of LOFAR LBA data can be accurately modelled as a sum of four effects (clock, ionosphere first, second, and third order). This greatly reduces the number of required calibration parameters, and therefore enables new efficient calibration strategies

Validation of heliospheric modeling algorithms through pulsar observations I: Interplanetary scintillation-based tomography

Solar-wind 3-D reconstruction tomography based on interplanetary scintillation (IPS) studies provides fundamental information for space-weather forecasting models, and gives the possibility to determine heliospheric column densities. Here we compare the time series of Solar-wind column densities derived from long-term observations of pulsars, and the Solar-wind reconstruction provided by the UCSD IPS tomography. This work represents a completely independent comparison and validation of these techniques to provide this measurement, and it strengthens confidence in the use of both in space-weather analyses applications.Comment: Published in Journal of Advances in Space Researc

Broadband Meter-Wavelength Observations of Ionospheric Scintillation

Intensity scintillations of cosmic radio sources are used to study astrophysical plasmas like the ionosphere, the solar wind, and the interstellar medium. Normally these observations are relatively narrow band. With Low Frequency Array (LOFAR) technology at the Kilpisj\"arvi Atmospheric Imaging Receiver Array (KAIRA) station in northern Finland we have observed scintillations over a 3 octave bandwidth. ``Parabolic arcs'', which were discovered in interstellar scintillations of pulsars, can provide precise estimates of the distance and velocity of the scattering plasma. Here we report the first observations of such arcs in the ionosphere and the first broad-band observations of arcs anywhere, raising hopes that study of the phenomenon may similarly improve the analysis of ionospheric scintillations. These observations were made of the strong natural radio source Cygnus-A and covered the entire 30-250\,MHz band of KAIRA. Well-defined parabolic arcs were seen early in the observations, before transit, and disappeared after transit although scintillations continued to be obvious during the entire observation. We show that this can be attributed to the structure of Cygnus-A. Initial results from modeling these scintillation arcs are consistent with simultaneous ionospheric soundings taken with other instruments, and indicate that scattering is most likely to be associated more with the topside ionosphere than the F-region peak altitude. Further modeling and possible extension to interferometric observations, using international LOFAR stations, are discussed.Comment: 11 pages, 17 figure

Interpretation of Radio Wave Scintillation Observed through LOFAR Radio Telescopes

Radio waves propagating through a medium containing irregularities in the spatial distribution of the electron density develop fluctuations in their intensities and phases. In the case of radio waves emitted from astronomical objects, they propagate through electron density irregularities in the interstellar medium, the interplanetary medium, and Earth’s ionosphere. The LOFAR radio telescope, with stations across Europe, can measure intensity across the VHF radio band and thus intensity scintillation on the signals received from compact astronomical objects. Modeling intensity scintillation allows the estimate of various parameters of the propagation medium, for example, its drift velocity and its turbulent power spectrum. However, these estimates are based on the assumptions of ergodicity of the observed intensity fluctuations and, typically, of weak scattering. A case study of single-station LOFAR observations of the strong astronomical source Cassiopeia A in the VHF range is utilized to illustrate deviations from ergodicity, as well as the presence of both weak and strong scattering. Here it is demonstrated how these aspects can lead to misleading estimates of the propagation medium properties, for example, in the solar wind. This analysis provides a method to model errors in these estimates, which can be used in the characterization of both the interplanetary medium and Earth’s ionosphere. Although the discussion is limited to the case of the interplanetary medium and Earth’s ionosphere, its ideas are also applicable to the case of the interstellar medium

The Scintillating Tail of Comet C/2020 F3 (Neowise)

Context. The occultation of a radio source by the plasma tail of a comet can be used to probe structure and dynamics in the tail. Such occultations are rare, and the occurrence of scintillation, due to small-scale density variations in the tail, remains somewhat controversial. Aims. A detailed observation taken with the Low-Frequency Array (LOFAR) of a serendipitous occultation of the compact radio source 3C196 by the plasma tail of comet C/2020 F3 (Neowise) is presented. 3C196 tracked almost perpendicularly behind the tail, providing a unique profile cut only a short distance downstream from the cometary nucleus itself. Methods. Interplanetary scintillation (IPS) is observed as the rapid variation of the intensity received of a compact radio source due to density variations in the solar wind. IPS in the signal received from 3C196 was observed for five hours, covering the full transit behind the plasma tail of comet C/2020 F3 (Neowise) on 16 July 2020, and allowing an assessment of the solar wind in which the comet and its tail are embedded. Results. The results reveal a sudden and strong enhancement in scintillation which is unequivocally attributable to the plasma tail. The strongest scintillation is associated with the tail boundaries, weaker scintillation is seen within the tail, and previously-unreported periodic variations in scintillation are noted, possibly associated with individual filaments of plasma. Furthermore, contributions from the solar wind and comet tail are separated to measure a sharp decrease in the velocity of material within the tail, suggesting a steep velocity shear resulting in strong turbulence along the tail boundaryComment: Accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysics, 8 pages, 9 figure