Thirty years of invasion: the distribution of the invasive crayfish Procambarus clarkii in Italy

The presence of the red swamp crayfish Procambarus clarkii in Italy is documented since 1989, but no comprehensive data are available on its spread through time at the national scale. New confirmed records for Procambarus clarkii are continuously arising in recent years across the country. By reviewing the scientific and grey literature, we obtained an up-to-date map of the species invasion in Italy. This information can help to monitor and understand the spread of this highly invasive crayfish and to implement more effective management measures.

Electric circuit theory applied to alien invasions: a connectivity model predicting the Balkan frog expansion in Northern Italy

Invasive species are a major threat to biodiversity and alien herpetofauna already caused conservation problems in Italy and in the world. Pelophylax kurtmuelleri (Gayda, 1940) is a water frog native to Southern Balkans, that was introduced in NW Italy (Liguria) in 1941, from where it has spread to Piedmont, Lombardy and recently to Emilia Romagna. Surprisingly, during its expansion, the Balkan frog seemed not to be able to cross the Po River (with a single exception). So, we investigated the reasons for such directional limitation of range expansion, focusing on the potential role of the Po River. Combining ecological niche and connectivity models, we adopted a two-step process in order to assess: (i) if the habitat suitability differs between the two sides of the Po Plain; (ii) if the Po River could act as a barrier in terms of dispersal. Results showed that the northern side of the plain seems less suitable than the southern one, even if many suitable patches occur along the main left tributaries of the Po River and in the hilly part of the plain. The Po River behaves like a barrier for the Balkan frog, but the only known point on the north bank of the river indicates that it may be able to only slow the dispersal and not to completely stop it. So, the most probable interpretation for the absence of the Balkan frog from the Northern Po Plain, is the combination of habitat suitability and connectivity issues: the former makes less probable that new viable populations can establish in the North, the latter decreases the northwards flux of the frogs. Given these findings, the Balkan frog seems able to spread in the whole Northern Italy and the colonization of the northern Po plain could happen shortly

Electric circuit theory applied to alien invasions: a connectivity model predicting the Balkan frog expansion in Northern Italy

Invasive species are a major threat to biodiversity and alien herpetofauna already caused conservation problems in Italy and in the world. Pelophylax kurtmuelleri (Gayda, 1940) is a water frog native to Southern Balkans, that was introduced in NW Italy (Liguria) in 1941, from where it has spread to Piedmont, Lombardy and recently to Emilia Romagna. Surprisingly, during its expansion, the Balkan frog seemed not to be able to cross the Po River (with a single exception). So, we investigated the reasons for such directional limitation of range expansion, focusing on the potential role of the Po River. Combining ecological niche and connectivity models, we adopted a two-step process in order to assess: (i) if the habitat suitability differs between the two sides of the Po Plain; (ii) if the Po River could act as a barrier in terms of dispersal. Results showed that the northern side of the plain seems less suitable than the southern one, even if many suitable patches occur along the main left tributaries of the Po River and in the hilly part of the plain. The Po River behaves like a barrier for the Balkan frog, but the only known point on the north bank of the river indicates that it may be able to only slow the dispersal and not to completely stop it. So, the most probable interpretation for the absence of the Balkan frog from the Northern Po Plain, is the combination of habitat suitability and connectivity issues: the former makes less probable that new viable populations can establish in the North, the latter decreases the northwards flux of the frogs. Given these findings, the Balkan frog seems able to spread in the whole Northern Italy and the colonization of the northern Po plain could happen shortly

Estimating abundance and habitat suitability in a micro-endemic snake: the Walser viper

Recently described species suffer lack of information that hampers setting up appropriate conservation strategies. The situation is particularly complex with micro-endemic snakes, for which detection and monitoring are particularly challenging. The Walser viper Vipera walser is a recently described snake inhabiting a small area of the SW Italian alps. We combined information on species distribution with repeated monitoring to identify the areas most suitable for the species, and to obtain estimates of species abundance. Species distribution models were used to identify the topographical, climatic, and land-cover features related to the occurrence of vipers. Furthermore, repeated transects and N-mixture models were used to estimate abundance and to identify factors related to the variation of abundance. The available data suggested that the species has a disjunct range, with a Northern range of ~45 km2 , and a southern range of ~225 km2. Distribution models suggested that vipers are associated with areas with open egetation,altitude between 1300 and 2300 m, high precipitation, low forest cover, low slope, and southern aspect. N-mixture models confirmed very low detection probability of these vipers, and suggested that the species has a low abundance,with the highest abundance in south-facing plots. We provide the first quantitative information on habitats and abundance variation for Walser vipers. The broad confidence intervals of abundance estimates exemplify the complexity of providing range-wide measures of abundance for secretive species. Given the narrow range of these vipers, continuous monitoring is required to understand how they respond to ongoing environmental changes in mountainous areas

A framework for prioritising present and potentially invasive mammal species for a national list

The European Union (EU) has recently adopted a regulation on invasive alien species that foresees the possibility of developing lists of species of National Concern. We developed a prioritisation process for alien mammals already established in Italy, but not yet included in the EU list (n = 6 species) and a systematic horizon-scanning procedure to obtain ranked lists for those species that are already introduced worldwide or traded in Italy (n = 213). Experts were asked to score these species, by evaluating their likelihood of establishment and spread and the magnitude of their potential impacts on biodiversity, economy, human-health and society. The manageability of each species was also evaluated, both for the proritisation and the horizon-scanning processes. We produced five lists that ranked species according to their potential spread and impacts and their manageability. These will allow policy-makers to select outputs according to a balance between risk assessment and risk management, establishing priorities for alien species management at the national level

High habitat invasibility unveils the invasiveness potential of water frogs

peer reviewedDetermining the invasibility of habitats by alien species is crucial for understanding their spread potential, the habitats the most at risk and to implement adequate management actions. This is urgent for introduced taxa that show high invasion potential across broad geographical scales. We here assess these processes in invasive Pelophylax water frogs which are widespread colonizers across Western Europe and for which the invasibility of habitats remains to be quantified. Specifically, we used hierarchical occupancy models in a Bayesian framework to identify local-and landscape-scale features that can enhance occupancy of the most common invasive water frog, the marsh frog (P. ridibundus), in southern France. Water frogs were highly detectable and showed high occupancy across the invaded landscape. The invaders expressed a very broad habitat tolerance for both local-and landscape-scale variables while their invasion was facilitated by the occurrence of deep, permanent ponds with abundant aquatic vegetation and high sun exposure. Cross-validation showed a good transferability of models across space. The high invasibility of a wide range of habitats by Pelophylax water frogs is alarming and unveils their invasiveness, contributing therefore to explain their success of invasion over broad geographic scales

Fatality rate and predictors of mortality in an Italian cohort of hospitalized COVID-19 patients

Clinical features and natural history of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) differ widely among different countries and during different phases of the pandemia. Here, we aimed to evaluate the case fatality rate (CFR) and to identify predictors of mortality in a cohort of COVID-19 patients admitted to three hospitals of Northern Italy between March 1 and April 28, 2020. All these patients had a confirmed diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection by molecular methods. During the study period 504/1697 patients died; thus, overall CFR was 29.7%. We looked for predictors of mortality in a subgroup of 486 patients (239 males, 59%; median age 71 years) for whom sufficient clinical data were available at data cut-off. Among the demographic and clinical variables considered, age, a diagnosis of cancer, obesity and current smoking independently predicted mortality. When laboratory data were added to the model in a further subgroup of patients, age, the diagnosis of cancer, and the baseline PaO2/FiO2 ratio were identified as independent predictors of mortality. In conclusion, the CFR of hospitalized patients in Northern Italy during the ascending phase of the COVID-19 pandemic approached 30%. The identification of mortality predictors might contribute to better stratification of individual patient risk

Priority research needs to inform amphibian conservation in the Anthropocene

The problem of global amphibian declines has prompted extensive research over the last three decades. Initially, the focus was on identifying and characterizing the extent of the problem, but more recently efforts have shifted to evidence‐based research designed to identify best solutions and to improve conservation outcomes. Despite extensive accumulation of knowledge on amphibian declines, there remain knowledge gaps and disconnects between science and action that hamper our ability to advance conservation efforts. Using input from participants at the ninth World Congress of Herpetology, a U.S. Geological Survey Powell Center symposium, amphibian on‐line forums for discussion, the International Union for Conservation of Nature Assisted Reproductive Technologies and Gamete Biobanking group, and respondents to a survey, we developed a list of 25 priority research questions for amphibian conservation at this stage of the Anthropocene. We identified amphibian conservation research priorities while accounting for expected tradeoffs in geographic scope, costs, and the taxonomic breadth of research needs. We aimed to solicit views from individuals rather than organizations while acknowledging inequities in participation. Emerging research priorities (i.e., those under‐represented in recently published amphibian conservation literature) were identified, and included the effects of climate change, community‐level (rather than single species‐level) drivers of declines, methodological improvements for research and monitoring, genomics, and effects of land‐use change. Improved inclusion of under‐represented members of the amphibian conservation community was also identified as a priority. These research needs represent critical knowledge gaps for amphibian conservation although filling these gaps may not be necessary for many conservation actions

Continental‐scale determinants of population trends in European amphibians and reptiles

International audienc

Thirty years of invasion: the distribution of the invasive crayfish Procambarus clarkii in Italy

The presence of the red swamp crayfish Procambarus clarkii in Italy is documented since 1989, but no comprehensive data are available on its spread through time at the national scale. New confirmed records for Procambarus clarkii are continuously arising in recent years across the country. By reviewing the scientific and grey literature, we obtained an up-to-date map of the species invasion in Italy. This information can help to monitor and understand the spread of this highly invasive crayfish and to implement more effective management measures.