Bivariate stochastic modeling of functional response with natural mortality

A correction due to Abbott (1925) is the standard method of dealing with control mortality in insect bioassay to estimate the mortality of an insect conditional on control mortality not having occurred. In this article a bivariate stochastic process for overall mortality is developed in which natural mortality and predation are jointly modeled to take account of the competing-risks associated with prey loss. The total mortality estimate from this model is essentially identical with that from more classical modeling. However, when predation loss is estimated in the absence of control mortality the results are somewhat different, with the estimate from the bivariate model being lower than that from using Abbott’s formula in conjunction with the classical model. It is argued that overdispersion in observed mortality data corresponds to correlated outcomes (death or survival) for the prey initially present, while Abbott’s correction relies implicitly on independence

Bridging Time Scales in Cellular Decision Making with a Stochastic Bistable Switch

Cellular transformations which involve a significant phenotypical change of the cell's state use bistable biochemical switches as underlying decision systems. In this work, we aim at linking cellular decisions taking place on a time scale of years to decades with the biochemical dynamics in signal transduction and gene regulation, occuring on a time scale of minutes to hours. We show that a stochastic bistable switch forms a viable biochemical mechanism to implement decision processes on long time scales. As a case study, the mechanism is applied to model the initiation of follicle growth in mammalian ovaries, where the physiological time scale of follicle pool depletion is on the order of the organism's lifespan. We construct a simple mathematical model for this process based on experimental evidence for the involved genetic mechanisms. Despite the underlying stochasticity, the proposed mechanism turns out to yield reliable behavior in large populations of cells subject to the considered decision process. Our model explains how the physiological time constant may emerge from the intrinsic stochasticity of the underlying gene regulatory network. Apart from ovarian follicles, the proposed mechanism may also be of relevance for other physiological systems where cells take binary decisions over a long time scale.Comment: 14 pages, 4 figure

The relationship between anti-mullerian hormone in women receiving fertility assessments and age at menopause in subfertile women: evidence from large population studies

<p>Context: Anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) concentration reflects ovarian aging and is argued to be a useful predictor of age at menopause (AMP). It is hypothesized that AMH falling below a critical threshold corresponds to follicle depletion, which results in menopause. With this threshold, theoretical predictions of AMP can be made. Comparisons of such predictions with observed AMP from population studies support the role for AMH as a forecaster of menopause.</p> <p>Objective: The objective of the study was to investigate whether previous relationships between AMH and AMP are valid using a much larger data set.</p> <p>Setting: AMH was measured in 27 563 women attending fertility clinics.</p> <p>Study Design: From these data a model of age-related AMH change was constructed using a robust regression analysis. Data on AMP from subfertile women were obtained from the population-based Prospect-European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (Prospect-EPIC) cohort (n = 2249). By constructing a probability distribution of age at which AMH falls below a critical threshold and fitting this to Prospect-EPIC menopausal age data using maximum likelihood, such a threshold was estimated.</p> <p>Main Outcome: The main outcome was conformity between observed and predicted AMP.</p> <p>Results: To get a distribution of AMH-predicted AMP that fit the Prospect-EPIC data, we found the critical AMH threshold should vary among women in such a way that women with low age-specific AMH would have lower thresholds, whereas women with high age-specific AMH would have higher thresholds (mean 0.075 ng/mL; interquartile range 0.038–0.15 ng/mL). Such a varying AMH threshold for menopause is a novel and biologically plausible finding. AMH became undetectable (<0.2 ng/mL) approximately 5 years before the occurrence of menopause, in line with a previous report.</p> <p>Conclusions: The conformity of the observed and predicted distributions of AMP supports the hypothesis that declining population averages of AMH are associated with menopause, making AMH an excellent candidate biomarker for AMP prediction. Further research will help establish the accuracy of AMH levels to predict AMP within individuals.</p&gt

Climacteric Lowers Plasma Levels of Platelet-Derived Microparticles: A Pilot Study in Pre-versus Postmenopausal Women

Background: Climacteric increases the risk of thrombotic events by alteration of plasmatic coagulation. Up to now, less is known about changes in platelet-(PMP) and endothelial cell-derived microparticles (EMP). Methods: In this prospective study, plasma levels of microparticles (MP) were compared in 21 premenopausal and 19 postmenopausal women. Results: No altered numbers of total MP or EMP were measured within the study groups. However, the plasma values of CD61-exposing MP from platelets/megakaryocytes were higher in premenopausal women (5,364 x 10(6)/l, range 4,384-17,167) as compared to postmenopausal women (3,808 x 10(6)/l, range 2,009-8,850; p = 0.020). This differentiation was also significant for the subgroup of premenopausal women without hormonal contraceptives (5,364 x 10(6)/l, range 4,223-15,916; p = 0.047; n = 15). Furthermore, in premenopausal women, higher plasma levels of PMP exposing CD62P were also present as compared to postmenopausal women (288 x 10(6)/l, range 139-462, vs. 121 x 10(6)/l, range 74-284; p = 0.024). This difference was also true for CD63+ PMP levels (281 x 10(6)/l, range 182-551, vs. 137 x 10(6)/l, range 64-432; p = 0.015). Conclusion: Climacteric lowers the level of PMP but has no impact on the number of EMP in women. These data suggest that PMP and EMP do not play a significant role in enhancing the risk of thrombotic events in healthy, postmenopausal women. Copyright (C) 2012 S. Karger AG, Base

El Niño Southern Oscillation, overseas arrivals and imported chikungunya cases in Australia: A time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is an emerging mosquito-borne pathogen circulating in tropical and sub-tropical regions. Although autochthonous transmission has not been reported in Australia, there is a potential risk of local CHIKV outbreaks due to the presence of suitable vectors, global trade, frequent international travel and human adaptation to changes in climate. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A time series seasonal decomposition method was used to investigate the seasonality and trend of monthly imported CHIKV cases. This pattern was compared with the seasonality and trend of monthly overseas arrivals. A wavelet coherence analysis was applied to examine the transient relationships between monthly imported CHIKV cases and southern oscillation index (SOI) in time-frequency space. We found that the number and geographical distribution of countries of acquisition for CHIKV in travellers to Australia has increased in recent years. The number of monthly imported CHIKV cases displayed an unstable increased trend compared with a stable linear increased trend in monthly overseas arrivals. Both imported CHIKV cases and overseas arrivals showed substantial seasonality, with the strongest seasonal effects in each January, followed by each October and July. The wavelet coherence analysis identified four significant transient relationships between monthly imported CHIKV cases and 6-month lagged moving average SOI, in the years 2009-2010, 2012, 2014 and 2015-2016. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: High seasonal peaks of imported CHIKV cases were consistent with the high seasonal peaks of overseas arrivals into Australia. Our analysis also indicates that El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variation may impact CHIKV epidemics in endemic regions, in turn influencing the pattern of imported cases

A Validated Model of Serum Anti-Müllerian Hormone from Conception to Menopause

Background Anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) is a product of growing ovarian follicles. The concentration of AMH in blood may also reflect the non-growing follicle (NGF) population, i.e. the ovarian reserve, and be of value in predicting reproductive lifespan. A full description of AMH production up to the menopause has not been previously reported. Methodology/Principal Findings By searching the published literature for AMH concentrations in healthy pre-menopausal females, and using our own data (combined ) we have generated and robustly validated the first model of AMH concentration from conception to menopause. This model shows that 34% of the variation in AMH is due to age alone. We have shown that AMH peaks at age 24.5 years, followed by a decline to the menopause. We have also shown that there is a neonatal peak and a potential pre-pubertal peak. Our model allows us to generate normative data at all ages. Conclusions/Significance These data highlight key inflection points in ovarian follicle dynamics. This first validated model of circulating AMH in healthy females describes a transition period in early adulthood, after which AMH reflects the progressive loss of the NGF pool. The existence of a neonatal increase in gonadal activity is confirmed for females. An improved understanding of the relationship between circulating AMH and age will lead to more accurate assessment of ovarian reserve for the individual woman.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Impact of female age and male infertility on ovarian reserve markers to predict outcome of assisted reproduction technology cycles

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>This study was designed to assess the capability of ovarian reserve markers, including baseline FSH levels, baseline anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) levels, and antral follicle count (AFC), as predictors of live births during IVF cycles, especially for infertile couples with advanced maternal age and/or male factors.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A prospective cohort of 336 first IVF/ICSI cycles undergoing a long protocol with GnRH agonist was investigated. Patients with endocrine disorders or unilateral ovaries were excluded.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Among the ovarian reserve tests, AMH and age had a greater area under the receiving operating characteristic curve than FSH in predicting live births. Furthermore, AMH and age were the sole predictive factors of live births for women greater than or equal to 35 years of age; while AMH was the major determinant of live births for infertile couples with absence of male factors by multivariate logistic regression analysis. However, all the studied ovarain reserve tests were not preditive of live births for women < 35 years of age or infertile couples with male factors.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The serum AMH levels were prognostic for pregnancy outcome for infertile couples with advanced female age or absence of male factors. The predictive capability of ovarian reserve tests is clearly influenced by the etiology of infertility.</p

A general piecewise multi-state survival model: Application to breast cancer

Multi-state models are considered in the field of survival analysis for modelling illnesses that evolve through several stages over time. Multi-state models can be developed by applying several techniques, such as non-parametric, semi-parametric and stochastic processes, particularly Markov processes. When the development of an illness is being analysed, its progression is tracked periodically. Medical reviews take place at discrete times, and a panel data analysis can be formed. In this paper, a discrete-time piecewise non-homogeneous Markov process is constructed for modelling and analysing a multi-state illness with a general number of states. The model is built, and relevant measures, such as survival function, transition probabilities, mean total times spent in a group of states and the conditional probability of state change, are determined. A likelihood function is built to estimate the parameters and the general number of cut-points included in the model. Time-dependent covariates are introduced, the results are obtained in a matrix algebraic form and the algorithms are shown. The model is applied to analyse the behaviour of breast cancer. A study of the relapse and survival times of 300 breast cancer patients who have undergone mastectomy is developed. The results of this paper are implemented computationally with MATLAB and R.Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad FQM-307European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) MTM2017-88708-PUniversity of Milano-Bicocca 2014-ATE-022

Chikungunya virus in Asia - Pacific: a systematic review.

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a mosquito-borne pathogen that causes an acute febrile syndrome and severe, debilitating rheumatic disorders in humans that may persist for months. CHIKV's presence in Asia dates from at least 1954, but its epidemiological profile in the region remains poorly understood. We systematically reviewed CHIKV emergence, epidemiology, clinical features, atypical manifestations and distribution of virus genotypes, in 47 countries from South East Asia (SEA) and the Western Pacific Region (WPR) during the period 1954-2017. Following the Cochrane Collaboration guidelines, Pubmed and Scopus databases, surveillance reports available in the World Health Organisation (WHO) and government websites were systematically reviewed. Of the 3504 records identified, 461 were retained for data extraction. Although CHIKV has been circulating in Asia almost continuously since the 1950s, it has significantly expanded its geographic reach in the region from 2005 onwards. Most reports identified in the review originated from India. Although all ages and both sexes can be affected, younger children and the elderly are more prone to severe and occasionally fatal forms of the disease, with child fatalities recorded since 1963 from India. The most frequent clinical features identified were arthralgia, rash, fever and headache. Both the Asian and East-Central-South African (ECSA) genotypes circulate in SEA and WPR, with ECSA genotype now predominant. Our findings indicate a substantial but poorly documented burden of CHIKV infection in the Asia-Pacific region. An evidence-based consensus on typical clinical features of chikungunya could aid in enhanced diagnosis and improved surveillance of the disease

Potentiation of the anti-tumour effects of Photofrin®-based photodynamic therapy by localized treatment with G-CSF

Photofrin®-based photodynamic therapy (PDT) has recently been approved for palliative and curative purposes in cancer patients. It has been demonstrated that neutrophils are indispensable for its anti-tumour effectiveness. We decided to evaluate the extent of the anti-tumour effectiveness of PDT combined with administration of granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) as well as the influence of Photofrin®and G-CSF on the myelopoiesis and functional activity of neutrophils in mice. An intensive treatment with G-CSF significantly potentiated anti-tumour effectiveness of Photofrin®-based PDT resulting in a reduction of tumour growth and prolongation of the survival time of mice bearing two different tumours: colon-26 and Lewis lung carcinoma. Moreover, 33% of C-26-bearing mice were completely cured of their tumours after combined therapy and developed a specific and long-lasting immunity. The tumours treated with both agents contained more infiltrating neutrophils and apoptotic cells then tumours treated with either G-CSF or PDT only. Importantly, simultaneous administration of Photofrin®and G-CSF stimulated bone marrow and spleen myelopoiesis that resulted in an increased number of neutrophils demonstrating functional characteristics of activation. Potentiated anti-tumour effects of Photofrin®-based PDT combined with G-CSF observed in two murine tumour models suggest that clinical trials using this tumour therapy protocol would be worth pursuing. © 2000 Cancer Research Campaig