Pelagic Functional Group Modeling: Progress, Challenges and Prospects

In this paper, we review the state of the art and major challenges in current efforts to incorporate biogeochemical functional groups into models that can be applied on basin-wide and global scales, with an emphasis on models that might ultimately be used to predict how biogeochernical cycles in the ocean will respond to global warming. We define the term biogeochemical functional group to refer to groups of organisms that mediate specific chemical reactions in the ocean. Thus, according to this definition, functional groups have no phylogenetic meaning-these are composed of many different species with common biogeochemical functions. Substantial progress has been made in the last decade toward quantifying the rates of these various functions and understanding the factors that control them. For some of these groups, we have developed fairly sophisticated models that incorporate this understanding, e.g. for diazotrophs (e.g. Trichodesmium), silica producers (diatoms) and calcifiers (e.g. coccolithophorids and specifically Emiliania huxleyi). However, current representations of nitrogen fixation and calcification are incomplete, i.e., based primarily upon models of Trichodesmium and E huxleyi, respectively, and many important functional groups have not yet been considered in open-ocean biogeochemical models. Progress has been made over the last decade in efforts to simulate dimethylsulfide (DMS) production and cycling (i.e., by dinoflagellates and prymnesiophytes) and denitrification, but these efforts are still in their infancy, and many significant problems remain. One obvious gap is that virtually all functional group modeling efforts have focused on autotrophic microbes, while higher trophic levels have been completely ignored. It appears that in some cases (e.g., calcification), incorporating higher trophic levels may be essential not only for representing a particular biogeochemical reaction, but also for modeling export. Another serious problem is our tendency to model the organisms for which we have the most validation data (e.g., E huxleyi and Trichodesmium) even when they may represent only a fraction of the biogeochemical functional group we are trying to represent. When we step back and look at the paleo-oceanographic record, it suggests that oxygen concentrations have played a central role in the evolution and emergence of many of the key functional groups that influence biogeochemical cycles in the present-day ocean. However, more subtle effects are likely to be important over the next century like changes in silicate supply or turbulence that can influence the relative success of diatoms versus dinoflagellates, coccolithophorids and diazotrophs. In general, inferences drawn from the paleo-oceanographic record and theoretical work suggest that global warming will tend to favor the latter because it will give rise to increased stratification. However, decreases in pH and Fe supply could adversely impact coccolithophorids and diazotrophs in the future. It may be necessary to include explicit dynamic representations of nitrogen fixation, denitrification, silicification and calcification in our models if our goal is predicting the oceanic carbon cycle in the future, because these processes appear to play a very significant role in the carbon cycle of the present-day ocean and they are sensitive to climate change. Observations and models suggest that it may also be necessary to include the DMS cycle to predict future climate, though the effects are still highly uncertain. We have learned a tremendous amount about the distributions and biogeochemical impact of bacteria in the ocean in recent years, yet this improved understanding has not yet been incorporated into many of our models. All of these considerations lead us toward the development of increasingly complex models. However, recent quantitative model intercomparison studies suggest that continuing to add complexity and more functional groups to our ecosystem models may lead to decreases in predictive ability if the models are not properly constrained with available data. We also caution that capturing the present-day variability tells us little about how well a particular model can predict the future. If our goal is to develop models that can be used to predict how the oceans will respond to global warming, then we need to make more rigorous assessments of predictive skill using the available data

Causal Loop Analysis of coastal geomorphological systems

As geomorphologists embrace ever more sophisticated theoretical frameworks that shift from simple notions of evolution towards single steady equilibria to recognise the possibility of multiple response pathways and outcomes, morphodynamic modellers are facing the problem of how to keep track of an ever-greater number of system feedbacks. Within coastal geomorphology, capturing these feedbacks is critically important, especially as the focus of activity shifts from reductionist models founded on sediment transport fundamentals to more synthesist ones intended to resolve emergent behaviours at decadal to centennial scales. This paper addresses the challenge of mapping the feedback structure of processes controlling geomorphic system behaviour with reference to illustrative applications of Causal Loop Analysis at two study cases: (1) the erosion–accretion behaviour of graded (mixed) sediment beds, and (2) the local alongshore sediment fluxes of sand-rich shorelines. These case study examples are chosen on account of their central role in the quantitative modelling of geomorphological futures and as they illustrate different types of causation. Causal loop diagrams, a form of directed graph, are used to distil the feedback structure to reveal, in advance of more quantitative modelling, multi-response pathways and multiple outcomes. In the case of graded sediment bed, up to three different outcomes (no response, and two disequilibrium states) can be derived from a simple qualitative stability analysis. For the sand-rich local shoreline behaviour case, two fundamentally different responses of the shoreline (diffusive and anti-diffusive), triggered by small changes of the shoreline cross-shore position, can be inferred purely through analysis of the causal pathways. Explicit depiction of feedback-structure diagrams is beneficial when developing numerical models to explore coastal morphological futures. By explicitly mapping the feedbacks included and neglected within a model, the modeller can readily assess if critical feedback loops are included

Carbon budget of tidal wetlands, estuaries, and shelf waters of eastern North America

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2018. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 32 (2018): 389-416, doi:10.1002/2017GB005790.Carbon cycling in the coastal zone affects global carbon budgets and is critical for understanding the urgent issues of hypoxia, acidification, and tidal wetland loss. However, there are no regional carbon budgets spanning the three main ecosystems in coastal waters: tidal wetlands, estuaries, and shelf waters. Here we construct such a budget for eastern North America using historical data, empirical models, remote sensing algorithms, and process‐based models. Considering the net fluxes of total carbon at the domain boundaries, 59 ± 12% (± 2 standard errors) of the carbon entering is from rivers and 41 ± 12% is from the atmosphere, while 80 ± 9% of the carbon leaving is exported to the open ocean and 20 ± 9% is buried. Net lateral carbon transfers between the three main ecosystem types are comparable to fluxes at the domain boundaries. Each ecosystem type contributes substantially to exchange with the atmosphere, with CO2 uptake split evenly between tidal wetlands and shelf waters, and estuarine CO2 outgassing offsetting half of the uptake. Similarly, burial is about equal in tidal wetlands and shelf waters, while estuaries play a smaller but still substantial role. The importance of tidal wetlands and estuaries in the overall budget is remarkable given that they, respectively, make up only 2.4 and 8.9% of the study domain area. This study shows that coastal carbon budgets should explicitly include tidal wetlands, estuaries, shelf waters, and the linkages between them; ignoring any of them may produce a biased picture of coastal carbon cycling.NASA Interdisciplinary Science program Grant Number: NNX14AF93G; NASA Carbon Cycle Science Program Grant Number: NNX14AM37G; NASA Ocean Biology and Biogeochemistry Program Grant Number: NNX11AD47G; National Science Foundation's Chemical Oceanography Program Grant Number: OCE‐12605742018-10-0

Identification of IKr Kinetics and Drug Binding in Native Myocytes

Determining the effect of a compound on IKr is a standard screen for drug safety. Often the effect is described using a single IC50 value, which is unable to capture complex effects of a drug. Using verapamil as an example, we present a method for using recordings from native myocytes at several drug doses along with qualitative features of IKr from published studies of HERG current to estimate parameters in a mathematical model of the drug effect on IKr. IKr was recorded from canine left ventricular myocytes using ruptured patch techniques. A voltage command protocol was used to record tail currents at voltages from −70 to −20 mV, following activating pulses over a wide range of voltages and pulse durations. Model equations were taken from a published IKr Markov model and the drug was modeled as binding to the open state. Parameters were estimated using a combined global and local optimization algorithm based on collected data with two additional constraints on IKrI–V relation and IKr inactivation. The method produced models that quantitatively reproduce both the control IKr kinetics and dose dependent changes in the current. In addition, the model exhibited use and rate dependence. The results suggest that: (1) the technique proposed here has the practical potential to develop data-driven models that quantitatively reproduce channel behavior in native myocytes; (2) the method can capture important drug effects that cannot be reproduced by the IC50 method. Although the method was developed for IKr, the same strategy can be applied to other ion channels, once appropriate channel-specific voltage protocols and qualitative features are identified

The CMS Phase-1 pixel detector upgrade

The CMS detector at the CERN LHC features a silicon pixel detector as its innermost subdetector. The original CMS pixel detector has been replaced with an upgraded pixel system (CMS Phase-1 pixel detector) in the extended year-end technical stop of the LHC in 2016/2017. The upgraded CMS pixel detector is designed to cope with the higher instantaneous luminosities that have been achieved by the LHC after the upgrades to the accelerator during the first long shutdown in 2013–2014. Compared to the original pixel detector, the upgraded detector has a better tracking performance and lower mass with four barrel layers and three endcap disks on each side to provide hit coverage up to an absolute value of pseudorapidity of 2.5. This paper describes the design and construction of the CMS Phase-1 pixel detector as well as its performance from commissioning to early operation in collision data-taking.Peer reviewe

First international descriptive and interventional survey for cholesterol and non-cholesterol sterol determination by gas- and liquid- chromatography–Urgent need for harmonisation of analytical methods

Serum concentrations of lathosterol, the plant sterols campesterol and sitosterol and the cholesterol metabolite 5α-cholestanol are widely used as surrogate markers of cholesterol synthesis and absorption, respectively. Increasing numbers of laboratories utilize a broad spectrum of well-established and recently developed methods for the determination of cholesterol and non-cholesterol sterols (NCS). In order to evaluate the quality of these measurements and to identify possible sources of analytical errors our group initiated the first international survey for cholesterol and NCS. The cholesterol and NCS survey was structured as a two-part survey which took place in the years 2013 and 2014. The first survey part was designed as descriptive, providing information about the variation of reported results from different laboratories. A set of two lyophilized pooled sera (A and B) was sent to twenty laboratories specialized in chromatographic lipid analysis. The different sterols were quantified either by gas chromatography-flame ionization detection, gas chromatography- or liquid chromatography-mass selective detection. The participants were requested to determine cholesterol and NCS concentrations in the provided samples as part of their normal laboratory routine. The second part was designed as interventional survey. Twenty-two laboratories agreed to participate and received again two different lyophilized pooled sera (C and D). In contrast to the first international survey, each participant received standard stock solutions with defined concentrations of cholesterol and NCS. The participants were requested to use diluted calibration solutions from the provided standard stock solutions for quantification of cholesterol and NCS. In both surveys, each laboratory used its own internal standard (5α-cholestane, epicoprostanol or deuterium labelled sterols). Main outcome of the survey was, that unacceptably high interlaboratory variations for cholesterol and NCS concentrations are reported, even when the individual laboratories used the same calibration material. We discuss different sources of errors and recommend all laboratories analysing cholesterol and NCS to participate in regular quality control programs