Comparison of modelling techniques for milk-production forecasting

peer-reviewedThe objective of this study was to assess the suitability of 3 different modeling techniques for the prediction of total daily herd milk yield from a herd of 140 lactating pasture-based dairy cows over varying forecast horizons. A nonlinear auto-regressive model with exogenous input, a static artificial neural network, and a multiple linear regression model were developed using 3 yr of historical milk-production data. The models predicted the total daily herd milk yield over a full season using a 305-d forecast horizon and 50-, 30-, and 10-d moving piecewise horizons to test the accuracy of the models over long- and short-term periods. All 3 models predicted the daily production levels for a full lactation of 305 d with a percentage root mean square error (RMSE) of ≤12.03%. However, the nonlinear auto-regressive model with exogenous input was capable of increasing its prediction accuracy as the horizon was shortened from 305 to 50, 30, and 10 d [RMSE (%) = 8.59, 8.1, 6.77, 5.84], whereas the static artificial neural network [RMSE (%) = 12.03, 12.15, 11.74, 10.7] and the multiple linear regression model [RMSE (%) = 10.62, 10.68, 10.62, 10.54] were not able to reduce their forecast error over the same horizons to the same extent. For this particular application the nonlinear auto-regressive model with exogenous input can be presented as a more accurate alternative to conventional regression modeling techniques, especially for short-term milk-yield predictions

SOMETIMES THEY MAY BE ZEBRAS: HERPES ZOSTER OF THE L2 SPINAL NERVE: A Case Report

This case report describes a relatively uncommon presentation of herpes zoster affecting the cutaneous distribution of the L2 spinal nerve. The coexistence of a previous history of leg pain, cortical thickening of the femoral shaft on plain film x-ray examination, and the absence, at the time of examination, of the tell tale rash of herpes zoster provided the clinician with a diagnostic challenge. Furthermore, this case stresses the importance of a thorough neurological and orthopaedic examination as well as careful visual inspection of the painful region

Uranus and Neptune: Shape and Rotation

Both Uranus and Neptune are thought to have strong zonal winds with velocities of several hundred meters per second. These wind velocities, however, assume solid-body rotation periods based on Voyager 2 measurements of periodic variations in the planets' radio signals and of fits to the planets' magnetic fields; 17.24h and 16.11h for Uranus and Neptune, respectively. The realization that the radio period of Saturn does not represent the planet's deep interior rotation and the complexity of the magnetic fields of Uranus and Neptune raise the possibility that the Voyager 2 radio and magnetic periods might not represent the deep interior rotation periods of the ice giants. Moreover, if there is deep differential rotation within Uranus and Neptune no single solid-body rotation period could characterize the bulk rotation of the planets. We use wind and shape data to investigate the rotation of Uranus and Neptune. The shapes (flattening) of the ice giants are not measured, but only inferred from atmospheric wind speeds and radio occultation measurements at a single latitude. The inferred oblateness values of Uranus and Neptune do not correspond to bodies rotating with the Voyager rotation periods. Minimization of wind velocities or dynamic heights of the 1 bar isosurfaces, constrained by the single occultation radii and gravitational coefficients of the planets, leads to solid-body rotation periods of ~16.58h for Uranus and ~17.46h for Neptune. Uranus might be rotating faster and Neptune slower than Voyager rotation speeds. We derive shapes for the planets based on these rotation rates. Wind velocities with respect to these rotation periods are essentially identical on Uranus and Neptune and wind speeds are slower than previously thought. Alternatively, if we interpret wind measurements in terms of differential rotation on cylinders there are essentially no residual atmospheric winds.Comment: Accepted for publication in Icarus, 20 pages, 4 tables, 9 figure

Time Use by Small Farm Families in Southwest Virginia: An Approach for the Inclusion of Household in Farming Systems Research and Extension

In this paper we first present an overview of Farming Systems Research and Extension (FSR/E), contrasting the importance placed on the household in the FSRIE conceptual framework with the lack of explicit attention given it in FSR/E methodology. An initial 47-farm survey suggested that female household members play key roles in intensive crop production and off-farm income generation. A time allocation study during May-October, 1982, investigated the roles of female and male household heads and working age children in a representative 10-farm subsample. Results indicated greater women\u27s contributions to livestock-related production activities than originally hypothesized and reduced time spent by families with female off-farm employment in household production activities. Based on these results, an agriculture-family resources para-professional technician team is suggested as an alternate extension model to be tested for U.S. and developing country limited resource farms

Fob1 and Fob2 Proteins Are Virulence Determinants of Rhizopus oryzae via Facilitating Iron Uptake from Ferrioxamine.

Dialysis patients with chronic renal failure receiving deferoxamine for treating iron overload are uniquely predisposed for mucormycosis, which is most often caused by Rhizopus oryzae. Although the deferoxamine siderophore is not secreted by Mucorales, previous studies established that Rhizopus species utilize iron from ferrioxamine (iron-rich form of deferoxamine). Here we determined that the CBS domain proteins of Fob1 and Fob2 act as receptors on the cell surface of R. oryzae during iron uptake from ferrioxamine. Fob1 and Fob2 cell surface expression was induced in the presence of ferrioxamine and bound radiolabeled ferrioxamine. A R. oryzae strain with targeted reduced Fob1/Fob2 expression was impaired for iron uptake, germinating, and growing on medium with ferrioxamine as the sole source of iron. This strain also exhibited reduced virulence in a deferoxamine-treated, but not the diabetic ketoacidotic (DKA), mouse model of mucormycosis. The mechanism by which R. oryzae obtains iron from ferrioxamine involves the reductase/permease uptake system since the growth on ferrioxamine supplemented medium is associated with elevated reductase activity and the use of the ferrous chelator bathophenanthroline disulfonate abrogates iron uptake and growth on medium supplemented with ferrioxamine as a sole source of iron. Finally, R. oryzae mutants with reduced copies of the high affinity iron permease (FTR1) or with decreased FTR1 expression had an impaired iron uptake from ferrioxamine in vitro and reduced virulence in the deferoxamine-treated mouse model of mucormycosis. These two receptors appear to be conserved in Mucorales, and can be the subject of future novel therapy to maintain the use of deferoxamine for treating iron-overload

Verifying the Implementation of An Anisotropic Grain Boundary Energy Model in Idaho National Lab’s MARMOT

This work aims to verify the correct implementation of an anisotropic grain boundary (GB) energy model for face-centered cubic (FCC) and fluorite materials in Idaho National Laboratory’s phase field fuel performance code MARMOT. The model was recently implemented in MARMOT with the purpose of enabling higher fidelity simulations of UO2 nuclear fuels. As part of verification, tests were performed to measure the energy dependence on misorientation of high symmetry GBs in an FCC metal (Cu). The energies of the [100], [110], and [111] twist boundaries result as predicted, as do the energies of the [111] symmetric tilt boundaries. However, the energies of the [100] and [110] symmetric tilt boundaries display an unexpected mirror symmetry about half the rotation period. Further investigations are required to determine the cause of this discrepancy. Possible reasons include an error in the MARMOT implementation of the anisotropic GB energy model