Statistical modeling of ground motion relations for seismic hazard analysis

We introduce a new approach for ground motion relations (GMR) in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), being influenced by the extreme value theory of mathematical statistics. Therein, we understand a GMR as a random function. We derive mathematically the principle of area-equivalence; wherein two alternative GMRs have an equivalent influence on the hazard if these GMRs have equivalent area functions. This includes local biases. An interpretation of the difference between these GMRs (an actual and a modeled one) as a random component leads to a general overestimation of residual variance and hazard. Beside this, we discuss important aspects of classical approaches and discover discrepancies with the state of the art of stochastics and statistics (model selection and significance, test of distribution assumptions, extreme value statistics). We criticize especially the assumption of logarithmic normally distributed residuals of maxima like the peak ground acceleration (PGA). The natural distribution of its individual random component (equivalent to exp(epsilon_0) of Joyner and Boore 1993) is the generalized extreme value. We show by numerical researches that the actual distribution can be hidden and a wrong distribution assumption can influence the PSHA negatively as the negligence of area equivalence does. Finally, we suggest an estimation concept for GMRs of PSHA with a regression-free variance estimation of the individual random component. We demonstrate the advantages of event-specific GMRs by analyzing data sets from the PEER strong motion database and estimate event-specific GMRs. Therein, the majority of the best models base on an anisotropic point source approach. The residual variance of logarithmized PGA is significantly smaller than in previous models. We validate the estimations for the event with the largest sample by empirical area functions. etc

Revealing the former bed of Thwaites Glacier using sea-floor bathymetry: Implications for warm-water routing and bed controls on ice flow and buttressing

Abstract. The geometry of the sea floor immediately beyond Antarctica's marine-terminating glaciers is a fundamental control on warm-water routing, but it also describes former topographic pinning points that have been important for ice-shelf buttressing. Unfortunately, this information is often lacking due to the inaccessibility of these areas for survey, leading to modelled or interpolated bathymetries being used as boundary conditions in numerical modelling simulations. At Thwaites Glacier (TG) this critical data gap was addressed in 2019 during the first cruise of the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration (ITGC) project. We present more than 2000 km2 of new multibeam echo-sounder (MBES) data acquired in exceptional sea-ice conditions immediately offshore TG, and we update existing bathymetric compilations. The cross-sectional areas of sea-floor troughs are under-predicted by up to 40 % or are not resolved at all where MBES data are missing, suggesting that calculations of trough capacity, and thus oceanic heat flux, may be significantly underestimated. Spatial variations in the morphology of topographic highs, known to be former pinning points for the floating ice shelf of TG, indicate differences in bed composition that are supported by landform evidence. We discuss links to ice dynamics for an overriding ice mass including a potential positive feedback mechanism where erosion of soft erodible highs may lead to ice-shelf ungrounding even with little or no ice thinning. Analyses of bed roughnesses and basal drag contributions show that the sea-floor bathymetry in front of TG is an analogue for extant bed areas. Ice flow over the sea-floor troughs and ridges would have been affected by similarly high basal drag to that acting at the grounding zone today. We conclude that more can certainly be gleaned from these 3D bathymetric datasets regarding the likely spatial variability of bed roughness and bed composition types underneath TG. This work also addresses the requirements of recent numerical ice-sheet and ocean modelling studies that have recognised the need for accurate and high-resolution bathymetry to determine warm-water routing to the grounding zone and, ultimately, for predicting glacier retreat behaviour. </jats:p

Head Position in Stroke Trial (HeadPoST)- sitting-up vs lying-flat positioning of patients with acute stroke: study protocol for a cluster randomised controlled trial

Background Positioning a patient lying-flat in the acute phase of ischaemic stroke may improve recovery and reduce disability, but such a possibility has not been formally tested in a randomised trial. We therefore initiated the Head Position in Stroke Trial (HeadPoST) to determine the effects of lying-flat (0°) compared with sitting-up (≥30°) head positioning in the first 24 hours of hospital admission for patients with acute stroke. Methods/Design We plan to conduct an international, cluster randomised, crossover, open, blinded outcome-assessed clinical trial involving 140 study hospitals (clusters) with established acute stroke care programs. Each hospital will be randomly assigned to sequential policies of lying-flat (0°) or sitting-up (≥30°) head position as a ‘business as usual’ stroke care policy during the first 24 hours of admittance. Each hospital is required to recruit 60 consecutive patients with acute ischaemic stroke (AIS), and all patients with acute intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) (an estimated average of 10), in the first randomised head position policy before crossing over to the second head position policy with a similar recruitment target. After collection of in-hospital clinical and management data and 7-day outcomes, central trained blinded assessors will conduct a telephone disability assessment with the modified Rankin Scale at 90 days. The primary outcome for analysis is a shift (defined as improvement) in death or disability on this scale. For a cluster size of 60 patients with AIS per intervention and with various assumptions including an intracluster correlation coefficient of 0.03, a sample size of 16,800 patients at 140 centres will provide 90 % power (α 0.05) to detect at least a 16 % relative improvement (shift) in an ordinal logistic regression analysis of the primary outcome. The treatment effect will also be assessed in all patients with ICH who are recruited during each treatment study period. Discussion HeadPoST is a large international clinical trial in which we will rigorously evaluate the effects of different head positioning in patients with acute stroke. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02162017 (date of registration: 27 April 2014); ANZCTR identifier: ACTRN12614000483651 (date of registration: 9 May 2014). Protocol version and date: version 2.2, 19 June 2014

The Genomic Signature of Crop-Wild Introgression in Maize

The evolutionary significance of hybridization and subsequent introgression has long been appreciated, but evaluation of the genome-wide effects of these phenomena has only recently become possible. Crop-wild study systems represent ideal opportunities to examine evolution through hybridization. For example, maize and the conspecific wild teosinte Zea mays ssp. mexicana, (hereafter, mexicana) are known to hybridize in the fields of highland Mexico. Despite widespread evidence of gene flow, maize and mexicana maintain distinct morphologies and have done so in sympatry for thousands of years. Neither the genomic extent nor the evolutionary importance of introgression between these taxa is understood. In this study we assessed patterns of genome-wide introgression based on 39,029 single nucleotide polymorphisms genotyped in 189 individuals from nine sympatric maize-mexicana populations and reference allopatric populations. While portions of the maize and mexicana genomes were particularly resistant to introgression (notably near known cross-incompatibility and domestication loci), we detected widespread evidence for introgression in both directions of gene flow. Through further characterization of these regions and preliminary growth chamber experiments, we found evidence suggestive of the incorporation of adaptive mexicana alleles into maize during its expansion to the highlands of central Mexico. In contrast, very little evidence was found for adaptive introgression from maize to mexicana. The methods we have applied here can be replicated widely, and such analyses have the potential to greatly informing our understanding of evolution through introgressive hybridization. Crop species, due to their exceptional genomic resources and frequent histories of spread into sympatry with relatives, should be particularly influential in these studies

The cell cycle of the planctomycete Gemmata obscuriglobus with respect to cell compartmentalization

Background: Gemmata obscuriglobus is a distinctive member of the divergent phylum Planctomycetes, all known members of which are peptidoglycan-less bacteria with a shared compartmentalized cell structure and divide by a budding process. G. obscuriglobus in addition shares the unique feature that its nucleoid DNA is surrounded by an envelope consisting of two membranes forming an analogous structure to the membrane-bounded nucleoid of eukaryotes and therefore G. obscuriglobus forms a special model for cell biology. Draft genome data for G. obscuriglobus as well as complete genome sequences available so far for other planctomycetes indicate that the key bacterial cell division protein FtsZ is not present in these planctomycetes, so the cell division process in planctomycetes is of special comparative interest. The membrane-bounded nature of the nucleoid in G. obscuriglobus also suggests that special mechanisms for the distribution of this nuclear body to the bud and for distribution of chromosomal DNA might exist during division. It was therefore of interest to examine the cell division cycle in G. obscuriglobus and the process of nucleoid distribution and nuclear body formation during division in this planctomycete bacterium via light and electron microscopy. Results: Using phase contrast and fluorescence light microscopy, and transmission electron microscopy, the cell division cycle of G. obscuriglobus was determined. During the budding process, the bud was formed and developed in size from one point of the mother cell perimeter until separation. The matured daughter cell acted as a new mother cell and started its own budding cycle while the mother cell can itself initiate budding repeatedly. Fluorescence microscopy of DAPI-stained cells of G. obscuriglobus suggested that translocation of the nucleoid and formation of the bud did not occur at the same time. Confocal laser scanning light microscopy applied to cells stained for membranes as well as DNA confirmed the behaviour of the nucleoid and nucleoid envelope during cell division. Electron microscopy of cryosubstituted cells confirmed deductions from light microscopy concerning nucleoid presence in relation to the stage of budding, and showed that the nucleoid was observed to occur in both mother and bud cells only at later budding stages. It further suggested that nucleoid envelope formed only after the nucleoid was translocated into the bud, since envelopes only appeared in more mature buds, while naked nucleoids occurred in smaller buds. Nucleoid envelope appeared to originate from the intracytoplasmic membranes (ICM) of both mother cell and bud. There was always a connecting passage between mother cell and bud during the budding process until separation of the two cells. The division cycle of the nucleated planctomycete G. obscuriglobus appears to be a complex process in which chromosomal DNA is transported to the daughter cell bud after initial formation of the bud, and this can be performed repeatedly by a single mother cell. Conclusion: The division cycle of the nucleated planctomycete G. obscuriglobus is a complex process in which chromosomal nucleoid DNA is transported to the daughter cell bud after initial formation of a bud without nucleoid. The new bud nucleoid is initially naked and not surrounded by membrane, but eventually acquires a complete nucleoid envelope consisting of two closely apposed membranes as occurs in the mother cell. The membranes of the new nucleoid envelope surrounding the bud nucleoid are derived from intracytoplasmic membranes of both the mother cell and the bud. The cell division of G. obscuriglobus displays some unique features not known in cells of either prokaryotes or eukaryotes

Obesity related methylation changes in DNA of peripheral blood leukocytes

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Despite evidence linking obesity to impaired immune function, little is known about the specific mechanisms. Because of emerging evidence that immune responses are epigenetically regulated, we hypothesized that DNA methylation changes are involved in obesity induced immune dysfunction and aimed to identify these changes.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>We conducted a genome wide methylation analysis on seven obese cases and seven lean controls aged 14 to 18 years from extreme ends of the obesity distribution and performed further validation of six CpG sites from six genes in 46 obese cases and 46 lean controls aged 14 to 30 years.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In comparison with the lean controls, we observed one CpG site in the UBASH3A gene showing higher methylation levels and one CpG site in the TRIM3 gene showing lower methylation levels in the obese cases in both the genome wide step (<it>P </it>= 5 × 10^-6and <it>P </it>= 2 × 10^-5for the UBASH3A and the TRIM3 gene respectively) and the validation step (<it>P </it>= 0.008 and <it>P </it>= 0.001 for the UBASH3A and the TRIM3 gene respectively).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our results provide evidence that obesity is associated with methylation changes in blood leukocyte DNA. Further studies are warranted to determine the causal direction of this relationship as well as whether such methylation changes can lead to immune dysfunction.</p> <p>See commentary: <url>http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7015/8/88/abstract</url></p

Effect of malaria transmission reduction by insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) on the genetic diversity of Plasmodium falciparum merozoite surface protein (MSP-1) and circumsporozoite (CSP) in western Kenya

Background Although several studies have investigated the impact of reduced malaria transmission due to insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) on the patterns of morbidity and mortality, there is limited information on their effect on parasite diversity. Methods Sequencing was used to investigate the effect of ITNs on polymorphisms in two genes encoding leading Plasmodium falciparum vaccine candidate antigens, the 19 kilodalton blood stage merozoite surface protein-1 (MSP-119kDa) and the Th2R and Th3R T-cell epitopes of the pre-erythrocytic stage circumsporozoite protein (CSP) in a large community-based ITN trial site in western Kenya. The number and frequency of haplotypes as well as nucleotide and haplotype diversity were compared among parasites obtained from children <5 years old prior to the introduction of ITNs (1996) and after 5 years of high coverage ITN use (2001). Results A total of 12 MSP-119kDa haplotypes were detected in 1996 and 2001. The Q-KSNG-L and E-KSNG-L haplotypes corresponding to the FVO and FUP strains of P. falciparum were the most prevalent (range 32–37%), with an overall haplotype diversity of > 0.7. No MSP-119kDa 3D7 sequence-types were detected in 1996 and the frequency was less than 4% in 2001. The CSP Th2R and Th3R domains were highly polymorphic with a total of 26 and 14 haplotypes, respectively detected in 1996 and 34 and 13 haplotypes in 2001, with an overall haplotype diversity of > 0.9 and 0.75 respectively. The frequency of the most predominant Th2R and Th3R haplotypes was 14 and 36%, respectively. The frequency of Th2R and Th3R haplotypes corresponding to the 3D7 parasite strain was less than 4% at both time points. There was no significant difference in nucleotide and haplotype diversity in parasite isolates collected at both time points. Conclusion High diversity in these two genes has been maintained overtime despite marked reductions in malaria transmission due to ITNs use. The frequency of 3D7 sequence-types was very low in this area. These findings provide information that could be useful in the design of future malaria vaccines for deployment in endemic areas with high ITN coverage and in interpretation of efficacy data for malaria vaccines based on 3D7 parasite strains

Selective Depletion of Eosinophils or Neutrophils in Mice Impacts the Efficiency of Apoptotic Cell Clearance in the Thymus

Developing thymocytes undergo a rigorous selection process to ensure that the mature T cell population expresses a T cell receptor (TCR) repertoire that can functionally interact with major histocompatibility complexes (MHC). Over 90% of thymocytes fail this selection process and die. A small number of macrophages within the thymus are responsible for clearing the large number of dying thymocytes that must be continuously cleared. We studied the capacity of thymic macrophages to clear apoptotic cells under acute circumstances. This was done by synchronously inducing cell death in the thymus and then monitoring the clearance of apoptotic thymocytes. Interestingly, acute cell death was shown to recruit large numbers of CD11b+ cells into the thymus. In the absence of a minor CSF-1 dependent population of macrophages, the recruitment of these CD11b+ cells into the thymus was greatly reduced and the clearance of apoptotic cells was disrupted. To assess a possible role for the CD11b+ cells in the clearance of apoptotic cells, we analyzed mice deficient for eosinophils and mice with defective trafficking of neutrophils. Failure to attract either eosinophils or neutrophils to the thymus resulted in the impaired clearance of apoptotic cells. These results suggested that there is crosstalk between cells of the innate immune system that is necessary for maximizing the efficiency of apoptotic cell removal