Simpson's Paradox, Lord's Paradox, and Suppression Effects are the same phenomenon – the reversal paradox

This article discusses three statistical paradoxes that pervade epidemiological research: Simpson's paradox, Lord's paradox, and suppression. These paradoxes have important implications for the interpretation of evidence from observational studies. This article uses hypothetical scenarios to illustrate how the three paradoxes are different manifestations of one phenomenon – the reversal paradox – depending on whether the outcome and explanatory variables are categorical, continuous or a combination of both; this renders the issues and remedies for any one to be similar for all three. Although the three statistical paradoxes occur in different types of variables, they share the same characteristic: the association between two variables can be reversed, diminished, or enhanced when another variable is statistically controlled for. Understanding the concepts and theory behind these paradoxes provides insights into some controversial or contradictory research findings. These paradoxes show that prior knowledge and underlying causal theory play an important role in the statistical modelling of epidemiological data, where incorrect use of statistical models might produce consistent, replicable, yet erroneous results

Are we losing the battle against cardiometabolic disease? The case for a paradigm shift in primary prevention

Kraushaar LE, Krämer A. Are we losing the battle against cardiometabolic disease? The case for a paradigm shift in primary prevention. BMC Public Health. 2009;9(1):64.Background: Cardiovascular and diabetic disease are the leading and preventable causes of death worldwide. The currently prognosticated dramatic increase in disease burden over the next two decades, however, bespeaks a low confidence in our prevention ability. This conflicts with the almost enthusiastic reporting of study results, which demonstrate substantial risk reductions secondary to simple lifestyle changes. Discussion: There is a case to be made for a disregard of the difference between statistical significance and clinical relevance of the reported data. Nevertheless, lifestyle change remains the main weapon in our battle against the epidemic of cardiometabolic disease. But along the way from risk screening to intervention to maintenance the compound inefficiencies of current primary preventive strategies marginalize their impact. Summary: Unless we dramatically change the ways in which we deploy preventive interventions we will inevitably lose the battle. In this paper we will argue for three provocative strategy changes, namely (a) the disbanding of screening in favor of population-wide enrollment into preventive interventions, (b) the substitution of the current cost utility analysis for a return-on-investment centered appraisal of interventions, and (c) the replacement of standardized programs modeled around acute care by individualized and perpetual interventions

Checkpoint Signaling, Base Excision Repair, and PARP Promote Survival of Colon Cancer Cells Treated with 5-Fluorodeoxyuridine but Not 5-Fluorouracil

The fluoropyrimidines 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) and FdUrd (5-fluorodeoxyuridine; floxuridine) are the backbone of chemotherapy regimens for colon cancer and other tumors. Despite their widespread use, it remains unclear how these agents kill tumor cells. Here, we have analyzed the checkpoint and DNA repair pathways that affect colon tumor responses to 5-FU and FdUrd. These studies demonstrate that both FdUrd and 5-FU activate the ATR and ATM checkpoint signaling pathways, indicating that they cause genotoxic damage. Notably, however, depletion of ATM or ATR does not sensitize colon cancer cells to 5-FU, whereas these checkpoint pathways promote the survival of cells treated with FdUrd, suggesting that FdUrd exerts cytotoxicity by disrupting DNA replication and/or inducing DNA damage, whereas 5-FU does not. We also found that disabling the base excision (BER) repair pathway by depleting XRCC1 or APE1 sensitized colon cancer cells to FdUrd but not 5-FU. Consistent with a role for the BER pathway, we show that small molecule poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase 1/2 (PARP) inhibitors, AZD2281 and ABT-888, remarkably sensitized both mismatch repair (MMR)-proficient and -deficient colon cancer cell lines to FdUrd but not to 5-FU. Taken together, these studies demonstrate that the roles of genotoxin-induced checkpoint signaling and DNA repair differ significantly for these agents and also suggest a novel approach to colon cancer therapy in which FdUrd is combined with a small molecule PARP inhibitor

Organization of multiprotein complexes at cell–cell junctions

The formation of stable cell–cell contacts is required for the generation of barrier-forming sheets of epithelial and endothelial cells. During various physiological processes like tissue development, wound healing or tumorigenesis, cellular junctions are reorganized to allow the release or the incorporation of individual cells. Cell–cell contact formation is regulated by multiprotein complexes which are localized at specific structures along the lateral cell junctions like the tight junctions and adherens junctions and which are targeted to these site through their association with cell adhesion molecules. Recent evidence indicates that several major protein complexes exist which have distinct functions during junction formation. However, this evidence also indicates that their composition is dynamic and subject to changes depending on the state of junction maturation. Thus, cell–cell contact formation and integrity is regulated by a complex network of protein complexes. Imbalancing this network by oncogenic proteins or pathogens results in barrier breakdown and eventually in cancer. Here, I will review the molecular organization of the major multiprotein complexes at junctions of epithelial cells and discuss their function in cell–cell contact formation and maintenance

Nothing Lasts Forever: Environmental Discourses on the Collapse of Past Societies

The study of the collapse of past societies raises many questions for the theory and practice of archaeology. Interest in collapse extends as well into the natural sciences and environmental and sustainability policy. Despite a range of approaches to collapse, the predominant paradigm is environmental collapse, which I argue obscures recognition of the dynamic role of social processes that lie at the heart of human communities. These environmental discourses, together with confusion over terminology and the concepts of collapse, have created widespread aporia about collapse and resulted in the creation of mixed messages about complex historical and social processes

Comparing benthic biogeochemistry at a sandy and a muddy site in the Celtic Sea using a model and observations

Results from a 1D setup of the European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model (ERSEM) biogeochemical model were compared with new observations collected under the UK Shelf Seas Biogeochemistry (SSB) programme to assess model performance and clarify elements of shelf-sea benthic biogeochemistry and carbon cycling. Observations from two contrasting sites (muddy and sandy) in the Celtic Sea in otherwise comparable hydrographic conditions were considered, with the focus on the benthic system. A standard model parameterisation with site-specific light and nutrient adjustments was used, along with modifications to the within-seabed diffusivity to accommodate the modelling of permeable (sandy) sediments. Differences between modelled and observed quantities of organic carbon in the bed were interpreted to suggest that a large part (>90%) of the observed benthic organic carbon is biologically relatively inactive. Evidence on the rate at which this inactive fraction is produced will constitute important information to quantify offshore carbon sequestration. Total oxygen uptake and oxic layer depths were within the range of the measured values. Modelled depth average pore water concentrations of ammonium, phosphate and silicate were typically 5–20% of observed values at the muddy site due to an underestimate of concentrations associated with the deeper sediment layers. Model agreement for these nutrients was better at the sandy site, which had lower pore water concentrations, especially deeper in the sediment. Comparison of pore water nitrate with observations had added uncertainty, as the results from process studies at the sites indicated the dominance of the anammox pathway for nitrogen removal; a pathway that is not included in the model. Macrofaunal biomasses were overestimated, although a model run with increased macrofaunal background mortality rates decreased macrofaunal biomass and improved agreement with observations. The decrease in macrofaunal biomass was compensated by an increase in meiofaunal biomass such that total oxygen demand remained within the observed range. The permeable sediment modification reproduced some of the observed behaviour of oxygen penetration depth at the sandy site. It is suggested that future development in ERSEM benthic modelling should focus on: (1) mixing and degradation rates of benthic organic matter, (2) validation of benthic faunal biomass against large scale spatial datasets, (3) incorporation of anammox in the benthic nitrogen cycle, and (4) further developments to represent permeable sediment processes

Team Dynamics Theory: Nomological network among cohesion, team mental models, coordination, and collective efficacy

I put forth a theoretical framework, namely Team Dynamics Theory (TDT), to address the need for a parsimonious yet integrated, explanatory and systemic view of team dynamics. In TDT, I integrate team processes and outputs and explain their relationships within a systemic view of team dynamics. Specifically, I propose a generative nomological network linking cohesion, team mental models, coordination, collective efficacy, and team outcomes. From this nomological conceptualization, I illustrate how myriad alternative models can be derived to account for variance in different working teams, each comprised of unique members, and embedded in singular contexts. I outline TDT’s applied implications for team development, the enhancement of team functioning, and the profiling of team resilience. I conclude by discussing how TDT’s ontological and nomological propositions can be tested through various theoretical inquiries, methodological approaches, and intervention-based studies